Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited

Krungsri Securities said the Social Security Board approved a gradual increase in the wage ceiling for insured persons under Section 33, from 15,000 baht to 17,500 baht in 2026, 20,000 baht in 2029, and 23,000 baht in 2032. The research team estimates that raising the wage ceiling from 15,000 baht to 17,500 baht during 2026-28 will increase the contribution base by 16.7% and generate additional revenue for the fund of about 3,825 baht per insured person per year. Considering only the four-case fund, which directly supports health benefits, it will add revenue of approximately 1,350 baht per insured person per year. Based on a sensitivity analysis assuming a roughly 10% increase in social security medical treatment fees for capitation, IPD treatment, and chronic disease risk burden, similar to the most recent adjustment on May 1, 2023, it is estimated to add a burden to the fund of about 301 baht per insured person per year, or 22% of the incremental revenue of the four-case fund. This reflects that the fund's increased revenue exceeds the higher treatment burden and increases the likelihood of future adjustments to medical treatment rates, which would be an upside for BCH and CHG. On October 19, 2026, the ad hoc subcommittee to review the criteria and rates for medical service payments to contracted hospitals in the social security system will meet to finalize the proposal to adjust social security medical treatment fees after three meetings. It will then propose to the Medical Board and the Social Security Board. The research team assesses the impact on the 2027 earnings forecasts of BCH and CHG under two scenarios. In the first scenario, only the capitation rate is raised by 10%, with an assumed incremental margin of 80%, which would increase 2027 earnings of BCH and CHG by about 11% and 9%, respectively, with additional value from the target price of BCH of about 0.60-0.70 baht and CHG of about 0.10-0.15 baht. In the second scenario, all three items are raised by 10%, with an assumed incremental margin of 70%, which would increase earnings of BCH and CHG by about 13% and 11%, respectively, with additional value from the target price of BCH of about 0.80-1.00 baht and CHG of about 0.15-0.20 baht. The research team maintains a bullish view on the hospital sector, with top picks BDMS (Buy, target price 25 baht) and PR9 (Buy, target price 24 baht), while BCH (Buy, target price 12 baht) stands out in the social security hospital group due to earnings having passed the trough and a high chance of benefiting from the increase in social security medical treatment rates.

Securities analysts at Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, said the Thai stock market still has room for a short-term relief rally, and net selling by foreign investors is likely to slow, driven by three main factors: the pullback in US bond yields, the rotation of funds out of a correction in US and North Asian technology stocks, and Thailand's hosting of the major IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings 2026 in Bangkok from October 12 to 18, 2026, which should help build confidence and directly benefit domestic consumption, tourism, and healthcare stocks. On investment strategy, they recommend positioning for a relief rally in domestic play, tourism, and healthcare stocks, with five standouts: DISNEY19, which is entering its high season for fourth-quarter earnings on the buzz around the blockbuster film Avengers: Doomsday; AAPL80, which is getting a boost from preparations to launch its first foldable-screen smartphone; Bangkok Expressway and Metro, or BEM, which has a high chance of winning the contract to operate the southern Purple Line electric train; Com Seven, or COM7, which is expected to post standout third-quarter 2026 profit growth of more than 30%; and Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH, whose international patient revenue looks set for strong growth in the second half. However, pressure remains from the transport and logistics sector after reports of plans to collect three tourist fees and taxes totaling 2,570 baht, as well as concerns over the September consumer confidence index, which fell for the first time in four months. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities, or KS, said the World Bank has advised Thailand to accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence technology to raise productivity and escape the middle-income trap, since only 12% of Thai businesses currently use AI, compared with 43% in the United States. It views this as positive for the industrial estate, utilities, power plant, digital infrastructure, and electronics sectors, including WHA, AMATA, WHAUP, GULF, BGRIM, DELTA, KCE, and Hana Microelectronics.

InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, released an analysis recommending a Selective Buy investment strategy on the Domestic Play theme after the SET ended September with a sharp plunge below 1,600 points, hitting a more than three-month low near 1,550 points. It attributed the pressure to three factors: bond yields holding high, pressuring the baht and fund flows, with foreign investors recording continuous net selling in the Thai stock market from September 22 to 29, 2026 totaling almost 20 billion baht; valuations that have begun to look stretched after the index rose about 27% year-to-date in the first nine months of 2026, driven mainly by buying in the energy group, up 38.5% year-to-date, banks, up 32.4% year-to-date, and electronics, up 53.5% year-to-date; and concerns over flooding that could affect asset quality and raise NPL risk. On investment approach, it recommends temporarily avoiding big-cap stocks that have already risen sharply and focusing instead on Domestic Play stocks tied to domestic consumption, namely the commerce group CPALL, CPN and CRC, the healthcare group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE. October will meanwhile mark the start of the full high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, beginning with Golden Week, when Chinese travelers favor trips to Thailand, combined with tailwinds from Europeans starting their winter getaways and domestic long holidays. There is also upside from global events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings and the Tomorrowland music festival, which will support tourist numbers and tourism revenue accelerating higher. InnovestX assesses that the tourism sector will recover strongly in the fourth quarter of 2026 and carry positive momentum into the first half of 2027, and therefore recommends looking for opportunities to buy for trading gains in stocks that benefit directly from tourism, namely AOT, ERW, CENTEL and MINT, and stocks that benefit indirectly through increased spending, namely CPALL, CRC, CPN, HTC and ICHI.

Pobchai Pattarawich, equity and derivatives market strategist at InnovestX Securities Research, said the Thai stock market has still not been able to recover and stand above 1,600 points, even though some recovery has been seen, with the main support still concentrated in electronic component stocks. Meanwhile, further upside remains significantly limited because the market still lacks new positive factors and faces macroeconomic pressure from abroad, including US bond yields holding above 5% and Brent crude oil prices staying at high levels, amid concerns over fiscal positions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are pressuring foreign investment flows to tend to return to dollar assets or the US market instead. On domestic factors, the flood situation is a short-term risk the market is closely monitoring, although economic research centers estimate the net impact on GDP at a limited range of about 0.03% to 0.11% of GDP. Meanwhile, as commercial banks enter the third-quarter 2026 earnings announcement period, the market initially expects a slight slowdown compared with the same period last year, leaving a lack of momentum to drive the index sharply higher. The investment strategy therefore recommends Buy on Dip to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks in 3 main themes: first, groups tied mainly to domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; second, groups benefiting from the flood situation, from emergency stockpiling of essential goods in the commerce group CPALL, BJC and CRC, through to demand for home repairs after the water recedes in the commerce group HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and third, groups expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by global events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, namely the tourism group ERW, CENTEL and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN and CRC.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) assesses that Thailand's hosting of the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, to be held from 12-18 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, will be a positive factor for the Thai stock market. It marks Thailand's return as host after 35 years, having last hosted in 1991, and more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries are expected. Thailand is presenting the concept "A New Horizon for Thailand: Empowering People, Strengthening Readiness for Change," and will push four main issues: the transition to digital and AI, the role of middle-sized countries in a multipolar world, coping with climate change, and preparing the economy for an aging society. Yuanta's research team cites the case study of Indonesia, which hosted in 2018, finding that the JCI Index rose 2.8% in the one month after the meetings and outperformed MSCI EM, MSCI DM and MSCI ACWI, which delivered negative returns during that period. It therefore sees the SET Index as likely to outperform regional markets. The digital and AI theme is positive for SMT, HANA, CCET, AMATA, WHA, DITTO and SKY, while the middle-sized countries theme, aimed at supporting SMEs, is positive for KBANK, SCB, KTB, SAWAD and MTC. The climate theme is positive for GUNKUL, SSP, GULF, DITTO and TEAMG, and the aging society theme is positive for BDMS, BH, BCH and CHG. It also sees the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers, namely AOT, THAI, BA, ERW, CENTEL, MINT and AWC, with several large concerts choosing to hold events in Thailand during November-December providing continued support.

Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of Research in the Investment Strategy Department at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, said on the October 8, 2569 edition of the stock news program "Jad Talad" that the Thai stock market today is likely to move sideways, even as most Asian markets come under pressure from rising US government bond yields, along with concerns over inflation, debt burdens, and geopolitical conflicts. The market still needs to watch US consumer inflation figures, or CPI, in the middle of next week. As for the MSCI index review in November, Krungsri's research team sees it as increasingly interesting, with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, having a chance to return to the MSCI index if its share price rises to around 6 baht, plus or minus, since its market capitalization adjusted for free-float proportion has already passed the preliminary threshold. Meanwhile, PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, which is currently in the MSCI Small Cap index, has a chance to move up to the MSCI Global Standard index after its share price continued to improve. Even using a stricter market capitalization threshold assumption of about 50% above the normal level, a share price of around 50 baht, plus or minus, would still likely pass the criteria, and PTTGC also has support from progress in setting up a joint venture with the Siam Cement Group, which could add upside of about 7 to 9 baht to its fundamental value. For standout stocks, Krungsri's research team recommends Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, on the domestic play theme; WHA Corporation Public Company Limited, or WHA, on the trend of attracting foreign investment; and Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, on the trend of raising medical service fees in the social security system.

Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, said in an analysis dated 8 October 2026 that it recommends "Buy" on shares of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, with a target price of 13.60 baht, and selected it as the top pick of the day, citing expectations that its operating results will return to a new expansion cycle. FSS preliminarily estimates that BCH will post a third-quarter 2026 profit of about 380 million baht, up 11% from the previous quarter and up 22% from the same period a year earlier, supported by revenue momentum expected to accelerate by 7-8% from the same period a year earlier. Margins are also likely to recover on the back of operating leverage, which the research team sees as possibly the start of a new earnings upcycle for BCH. In addition, BCH has a key catalyst in the potential increase in the per-head capitation rate paid by the Social Security Office, which is expected to be concluded on 24 October 2026. If the rate is raised as expected, it would be an upside to BCH's profit forecasts from 2027 onward. On the technical side, FSS gives support levels at 11.30 baht and 11.00-10.80 baht, with resistance at 11.70 baht and 12.30 baht, while maintaining its "Buy" recommendation and 13.60 baht target price.

KGI Securities (Thailand) expects BCH to report third-quarter net profit of 376 million baht, up 8.2% year on year and 9.5% quarter on quarter, with no extraordinary items. The main driver is higher Thai and foreign patient volumes during the high season for the hospital business. Revenue is expected to grow 8% year on year and 9.9% quarter on quarter after monthly revenue continued to recover, with July up 7% and August up 9%, while the number of Middle Eastern patients requiring complex treatment increased. The gross margin is expected at 28.8%, up from 27.6% a year earlier. The research team maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 1.33 billion baht, up 1.3%, and its 2027 forecast at 1.41 billion baht, up 6%. It sees upside for BCH if the Social Security Office raises the per-head capitation rate, with a 10% increase potentially adding another 10.2% to 2027 profit. It rates the stock a buy with a target price of 12.50 baht, noting BCH remains a top pick in the hospital sector on the recovery in foreign patients and the opportunity to benefit from an SSO rate adjustment.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends a Selective Investment strategy, highlighting DRs linked to global technology stocks such as the Optical, CPU & AI Server, Semi Equipment, Cloud and Power groups, alongside Thai stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and the high season. Analysts note that the direction of US Federal Reserve policy continues to pressure the baht. If the terminal interest rate sits at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate weaker in a range of 35-37 baht per US dollar, or depreciate 4-10%, which is positive for the hospital group that treats foreign patients, such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9, as well as the tourism group like AOT, THAI and CENTEL, and the export group like TU, ITC and CPF. For the five standout stocks and interesting DRs, they include SHOP06, whose third-quarter earnings trend remains strong on the back of bringing AI to boost trading volume on its platform; MRVL06, which gets a boost from its Investor Day, where new technology is expected to be unveiled; ITC, which benefits from the weak baht and is awaiting progress on closing its merger deal in the fourth quarter of 2026; TRUE, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to expand prominently, with an interim dividend of 0.15 baht anticipated; and BH, whose revenue and patient numbers from the Middle East are recovering strongly, while the stock still has high upside. On fund flows, although foreign investors still hold Thai stocks including NVDRs amounting to 36.5% of market value, cumulative net buying since the start of the year has fallen from a peak of 75 billion baht to just 18 billion baht, after more than 50 billion baht in net selling over the past two months. However, in the latest trading session, foreign investors began switching to net buying through the NVDR channel to the tune of 2.66 billion baht, reflecting selective accumulation of individual stocks expected to post fourth-quarter 2026 earnings growth to capture the high season.

Asia Plus Securities said 10 standout stocks will benefit from the trend of a continuing weaker baht, divided into hospital groups that benefit from foreign patients, namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9; tourism groups that make it easier for foreign tourists to spend, namely AOT, THAI and CENTEL; and export groups that convert revenue back into baht at a higher rate, namely TU, ITC and CPF. The research department said the spread between the 10-year bond yield and Thailand's policy rate remains below its historical average, reflecting that the market still sees no clear signal of a change in interest rate direction. Meanwhile, factors from the United States, from the Fed's perspective, continue to pressure the baht. If the Fed's interest rate stands at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate in the range of 35 to 37 baht per dollar, or weaken from the current level by about 4% to 10%, if the end of the Fed's interest rate cycle has not yet arrived. On Thailand's water situation, the latest data indicates that many large reservoirs have water volumes exceeding capacity or near critical levels, such as Pa Sak Jolasid Dam at 110%, Nong Pla Lai Dam at 105% and Kaeng Krachan Dam at 102%. Meanwhile, medium and small reservoirs in many provinces, such as Chonburi, Trat, Ubon Ratchathani, Phrae and Phayao, have water volumes exceeding normal storage levels from 113% up to 159%. The point requiring closest monitoring is the area below Chao Phraya Dam, which has a water volume of 2,500 cubic meters per second, while it can hold 2,840 cubic meters per second.

Maybank Securities (Thailand) has maintained its positive view on Thailand's healthcare sector, estimating that flooding will cut 2026 core profits by only 0.6–1.0%, after checks with hospitals showed that none had floodwater enter their buildings or suffer property damage. It expects the healthcare sector's core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 8% year on year, driven by the influenza outbreak, with patient numbers up 45% year on year, and by the low base of revenue from Cambodian patients a year earlier. BDMS and BCH are expected to post the strongest core profit growth at 11% and 10% respectively, followed by CHG at 7%, while BH is seen growing 3% and PR9 up 1%. On the flood impact, CHG has the highest share of beds in affected areas at 88%, followed by BCH at 46% and BDMS at 35%, while BH and PR9 have no beds in those areas. As a result, Maybank estimates 2026 core profit will fall by just 1.0% for CHG, 0.9% for BCH and 0.6–0.7% for the others. Maybank has already factored into its forecasts the upside from a 10% increase in the Social Security Office's per-head capitation rate from January 2027, which is expected to be concluded by October 24, lifting its 2027 core profit forecasts by 12% for BCH and 9% for CHG. It has raised its target price for BCH to 12.30 baht from 11.00 baht and for CHG to 2.00 baht from 1.90 baht, while keeping BH and CHG as its top picks.

Natwarin Triphopsakul, Senior Director of the Equity Strategy Team at InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, assesses that the Thai stock market will remain volatile in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, amid an investment climate pressured by factors on all sides. These include the Fed's hawkish stance, which is keeping bond yields elevated at multi-year highs, causing fund flows to continue flowing out. This is compounded by energy prices that remain high due to prolonged geopolitical problems, and concerns over domestic flooding, which, although the impact on the economy is expected to be limited, remains an overhang factor creating negative sentiment toward the market. InnovestX therefore recommends a Selective Buy strategy, focusing on Buy on Dip through 3 trading themes with their own specific positive factors. These are: the Domestic Play theme, based on domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN, and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; the Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays theme, which benefits from stockpiling of essential goods during emergencies, comprising the commerce group CPALL, BJC, and CRC, extending to demand for home repairs after the waters recede, namely HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and the Tourism & Mega-Event Play theme, which is expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by factors ranging from China's Golden Week from October 1 to 7 and world-class events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, comprising the tourism group ERW, CENTEL, and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN, and CRC. On external factors, the United States reported August PCE and Core PCE at 3.4% and 3.0% year on year, respectively, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations, while real consumption expanded 0.6% from the previous month and ADP employment for September rose by 90,000 positions from 36,000 positions, reflecting that the economy remains strong but price pressures have not yet broadened, opening the door for the Fed to wait and assess more data. The market has reduced the odds of an October rate hike to about 35% from 70% last Monday. InnovestX still expects the Fed to raise rates in December and once more in early next year, but September NFP, CPI, and PPI must be monitored to assess the risk that the Fed may accelerate the pace of rate hikes. In China, the PBOC cut the PSL rate used to lend to state policy banks by 25 basis points to 1.50%, while increasing funding support for targeted economic sectors, and the government is subsidizing interest on first-home loans by 1% per year for no more than 5 years. However, the measures still focus on supporting the economy, while falling home prices continue to pressure purchasing power. InnovestX therefore maintains its forecast for China's 2026 GDP at 4.6% and views that the property sector may take at least another year to reach its bottom. Next week, attention will be on Thailand's September inflation, which InnovestX expects to accelerate from 2.53% year on year in the previous month, tracking higher oil and fresh food prices, as well as the final September services PMI for the United States, the eurozone, and Japan. Preliminary PMI readings reflect that the United States and the eurozone are accelerating, while Japan is slowing but still expanding. Also awaited is the report of the September FOMC meeting after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, with a focus on details of discussions about inflation risks, the strength of the economy, and the conditions that would lead to the next rate hike.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index will trade in a range of 1550-1620 points this week. Domestically, the key factor to watch remains flooding, after the government began gradually releasing water from the Chao Phraya Dam; if there is no additional heavy rain, the impact may not be significant. Externally, attention should be on the Middle East situation, which could escalate again, serving as a catalyst for crude oil prices and inflation. Meanwhile, US bond yields have eased slightly on hopes that the US will not rush to raise interest rates in October, though yields remain elevated. For investment strategy this week, the recommendation is to accumulate stocks on dips that are expected to show strong earnings trends and have supporting stories. The top picks for the week are TOP and BCH. TOP is given a base price of 75.20 baht, supported by refining margins benefiting from the Middle East situation and China and the US announcing a ban on diesel exports in October. Its third-quarter 2026 earnings outlook remains good on high refining margins and expected stock gains; the buy recommendation is maintained. BCH is given a base price of 12.50 baht, based on a stronger third-quarter 2026 outlook as Thai patient volumes recover, SSO revenue improves, and foreign patients, especially from the Middle East and CLMV, grow. The target price is based on DCF at a WACC of 8.2%, offering a dividend yield of around 4-5% in 2026-27; the buy recommendation is also maintained.

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

Pi Securities stated that crude oil prices surging 4% are pressuring inflation and US yield trends, combined with foreign investors continuing net selling of Thai stocks by another 3.5 billion baht. The brokerage views the stock market as still in a phase of searching for a base, estimating the SET range at 1550 to 1570, and believes any upside is limited. It recommends raising some cash. Meanwhile, Brent crude closed up as much as 4.4% after reports that China ordered a suspension of oil product exports, which could cause global oil shortages. The US manufacturing PMI showed prices higher than market expectations, reflecting inflation that may be prolonged, and CME FedWatch believes the Fed will hold rates at its October meeting. Tonight, attention is on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, which the market expects at 89,000 and 4.1% respectively. Recommended stocks include energy names PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, and TOP; defensive names BCH, BDMS, BH, PR9, and ADVANC; and shopping center operator CPN. The target price for BCH is 13.20 baht, based on a positive view of the social security medical fee adjustment expected to conclude within October, and for PR9 at 20.00 baht, based on expectations that third-quarter 2026 earnings will expand quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year from investment in specialized treatment equipment.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends that investors raise their cash holdings to 30% - 40% of their portfolios and shift strategy toward seeking out "stocks resilient to selling pressure" to cope with pressure on the Thai capital market from both domestic and foreign sources, particularly the selling by foreign investors who dumped Thai stocks for 7 consecutive trading days between September 22 and 30, totaling more than 30,572 million baht, pushing trading value to exceed 100 billion baht. The safe-haven stocks are divided into two main groups. The first group benefits from the weak baht amid foreign selling, namely CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA. The second group consists of low-volatility stocks entering their high season (Defensive & Healthcare), namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9. Meanwhile, the 5 standout stocks and DRs recommended to cope with the volatile market conditions are AAPL80, on the positive factor of the upcoming launch of 3 new smartphone models in the middle of this month; GOOGL01, on positive sentiment from the launch of the AI model "GEMINI 4 ARGON" that has risen to number 1 in the world; BDMS, on its third-quarter 2026 operating results that are clearly recovering, with revenue in July-August growing 8-9% compared with the same period last year, while the share price remains a laggard; CK, after the unlocking of the barcode law issue supports progress on the 2027 budget and new bidding projects, along with receiving dividends from its subsidiaries BEM, CKP and TTW; and ITC, whose fourth-quarter 2026 profit trend is expected to recover strongly compared with the previous quarter and which is a stock that directly benefits from the weakening baht trend.

Asia Plus Securities warns that the Thai economy is facing multiple compounding negative factors at once. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks on a net basis for seven consecutive trading days, totaling 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, with only four SET100 stocks closing higher. The main pressure comes from the 10-year US government bond yield, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while US inflation remains above the 2.0% target after the August 2026 PCE index expanded 3.4%. Domestically, the Royal Irrigation Department increased water discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam to 2,500 cubic meters per second and expects water from Nakhon Sawan to reach 3,000 cubic meters per second on October 2. It estimates flood damage over one week could reach 5 billion to 10 billion baht and could push third-quarter 2026 GDP down to 2.1% to 2.2%. At the same time, during Golden Week from October 1 to 7, Thailand faces image risks from flooding and airport baggage problems, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 67.45%, near the 70% fiscal discipline ceiling. The research team recommends shifting strategy from seeking rising stocks to seeking stocks resilient to selling pressure, and raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of the portfolio, choosing stocks that benefit from a weak baht such as CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA, along with low-volatility and healthcare names such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9.

Pi Securities Public Company Limited, or Pi, estimates that the Thai stock market index will move within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points, believing the market will not panic over the flooding in many areas of Bangkok because the situation is expected to improve soon and is unlikely to be as severe as the great flood of 2011. Pi therefore recommends investing in sectors not affected by the floods, namely hospitals such as BDMS and BCH, retail such as CPALL, energy such as PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP, and exporters such as ITC and TU. Statistics from the great flood of 2011 show that the hardest-hit sectors were packaging, down 44 percent, electronics, down 35 percent, and transport, down 22 percent, while sectors that outperformed the market were healthcare, down only 1.4 percent, ICT, down 5 percent, real estate investment trusts, down 7.5 percent, and commerce, down 12.6 percent. One month after the situation eased, the stocks that rebounded most prominently were construction materials, up 32 percent, petrochemicals, up 32 percent, packaging, up 18 percent, and food, up 11 percent. On external factors, the Dow Jones index closed up 478 points, or 0.9 percent, last Friday, supported by Microsoft and artificial intelligence stocks, while US consumer confidence figures came in higher than the market expected, though the trend is still declining on concerns about rising goods prices. Brent crude oil prices closed down 2.1 percent on Friday, but this morning rebounded 1 percent after reports that the United States rejected Iran's proposal and indicated that further attacks could occur.

Dr. Chalerm Harnphanich, Chief Executive Officer of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, disclosed that the Election Committee for Employer Representatives and Insured Person Representatives resolved to postpone the election date for the Social Security Board from September 27 to October 11, 2026, due to flood situations in many areas. This does not affect the certification of the meeting results of the Subcommittee on Medical Treatment Fee Rates, which is expected to reach a conclusion on adjusting service rates before October 24, and is expected to take effect in the fourth quarter of 2026 or at the latest on January 1, 2027. The company has not yet included this matter in its 2026 growth projections. Meanwhile, the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity affected the number of patients seeking services only slightly, specifically during periods of heavy rain, and both Thai and foreign patients quickly returned to normal service use. Only the Chaengwattana branch is in a near-flood condition, while the bed occupancy rate remains at a high level. For the third-quarter 2026 outlook, continued growth is expected from the high season. The subcommittee is scheduled to hold its third meeting on October 5, and if no conclusion is reached, a fourth meeting may be held before October 24, which is the date the subcommittee's term expires. Kasikorn Securities assesses that the new Social Security Board is likely to begin operations within November, compared with the previous expectation of October, and maintains a neutral view on the hospital group, with an assumption of a 5% increase in the flat-rate payment rate starting in 2027. It recommends buying BCH with a target price of 12.50 baht and RJH with a target price of 17.20 baht, and recommends holding CHG with a target price of 1.69 baht.

Kasikorn Securities expects the SET Index to swing within a range of 1,580 to 1,630 points this week, after the index returned to stand above 1,600 points last week, supported by Fitch's upgrade of Thailand's outlook from Negative to Stable, strong August export figures, and buying in DELTA on the recovery of global technology stocks. On Friday, the Thai market closed at 1,607.63 points, up 0.32%, driven by heavy buying in electronics and construction. For today, the brokerage estimates the SET Index range at 1,590 to 1,620 points, reflecting short-term negative sentiment from weekend flooding in Thailand and lingering geopolitical risks. It noted that US-Iran geopolitical risk remains a key factor supporting a recovery in oil prices and could add pressure on inflation, the US dollar and bond yields. Domestically, investors must monitor the flood situation, which could weigh on short-term sentiment. Statistics on Thai floods from 2006 to 2024 show the SET fell an average of about 1% in the one month after such events, but the impact this time is expected to be limited, so the pullback is seen as an opportunity to accumulate. On key economic factors, investors should watch ISM and PMI readings, US employment and unemployment figures, and US PCE and Core PCE, which will affect the direction of Fed policy. This week's strategy therefore focuses on stocks with good earnings growth prospects and low risk, with ADVANC, BCH, CPALL and STECON chosen as the top stocks of the week. It set a base price for CPALL at 57.20 baht with a buy recommendation, expecting 2026 profit to grow 9% year on year, and a base price for ADVANC at 385.34 baht, viewing the stock's pullback as bringing its valuation back to an attractive level and lifting its dividend yield to 4.8%.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities stated that fund flow remains a pressure point, while flood risk in Bangkok adds downside to the economy and the SET. Foreign capital flowed out of the Thai stock market for four consecutive trading days, totaling 8.2 billion baht between September 22 and 25, with net selling every day, while domestic investors were the main buyers, reflecting that buying in the market still relies more on domestic flow than on a return of foreign capital. During the recent holiday period, Bangkok faced nearly 48 hours of continuous heavy rain, with accumulated rainfall in some periods exceeding 300 millimeters over two to three days, causing many canals to reach full capacity and flooding in many areas, including some locations that are not normally flood-prone. The risk has therefore shifted from water awaiting drainage to disruption of travel, trade, and economic activity, which is significant because Bangkok accounts for roughly one-third of the country's GDP in terms of gross provincial product. Compared with major floods in the past, in 1983 the SET fell for five consecutive months, accumulating a 9.4% decline; in 1995 it fell for five months, down 14.2%; and in 2011 it dropped sharply by 19.2% in just two months before water entered Bangkok severely. The research team therefore views flooding as a factor that raises risk premium rather than waiting to see maximum damage before acting. For investment strategy, Asia Plus divides the relevant stocks into three groups based on the period in which they benefit. The first is consumer retail goods, namely CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC, which may see short-term demand from stockpiling of food, drinking water, and essentials. The second is hospitals, namely BDMS and BCH, which may benefit in the short to medium term from patients and diseases that come with flooding. The third group, which benefits more clearly during the receding water and recovery phase, includes HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TASCO, and DCC, driven by demand for construction materials, repair equipment, and home renovation.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index will trade in a range of 1580-1630 points this week, with the market still volatile in line with swings in crude oil prices that accelerated last week, creating concerns over inflation in the period ahead. However, hopes remain for the US and Iran to return to further negotiations, which is a pressure keeping Brent crude oil prices unlikely to pass 110 dollars per barrel. On economic data this week, investors are advised to keep a close watch on the US Core PCE report, which is expected to hold steady at plus 3.3%, and if the actual figure comes in below market expectations, it will help the market further ease inflation concerns. For investment strategy this week, the recommendation is to wait for dips to accumulate shares with strong earnings prospects, such as the electronics, hospital, and construction contractor groups, as well as stocks tied to the Data Center theme. The standout stocks of the week are DELTA and BCH. For DELTA, the fundamental price is given at 300.00 baht, viewing the recent correction as merely a short-term reset, while AI demand remains strong from accelerating hyperscaler capex and rising demand for power and cooling systems per rack. Gross profit margin and earnings are expected to recover in the second half of 2026 after pressure from chip costs, inventory, and product mix clears up, with normal profit CAGR expected at around 32% in 2026-2028, and the buy recommendation is maintained with a target price of 300 baht. For BCH, the buy recommendation is maintained with a target price of 12.50 baht, based on improving profit forecast trends, with an expected earnings recovery in the second half of 2026 and upside from SSO service rate adjustments and M&A. The third-quarter 2026 outlook is stronger on a recovery in Thai patients, better SSO revenue, and growth in foreign patients, especially from the Middle East and CLMV. Valuation remains attractive, with the target price based on DCF at a WACC of 8.2%, offering a dividend yield of around 4-5% in 2026-2027, while no increase in SSO service rates is the main downside risk.

Krungsri Securities has a positive view on Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH, maintaining a Buy recommendation with a target price of 12.00 baht from a closing price of 10.90 baht, implying 10% upside. It expects healthcare revenue in the third quarter of 2026 to recover 6-7% from the same period a year earlier, after a 1% decline in the first half of 2026. In July 2026, revenue grew 7% and accelerated to about 8-9% in August 2026. On social security revenue, which accounts for 38% of total healthcare revenue, Krungsri estimates that a 10% increase in the capitation rate from 1,808 baht would lift SSO revenue by about 4% and net profit by about 11%, while adding roughly 0.60-0.70 baht to the target price. Meanwhile, from September 1, 2026, BCH began consolidating the operating results of Rajavej Ubon Ratchathani Hospital, which has average revenue of about 400,000 to 500,000 baht per month. Krungsri expects BCH revenue of 12.284 billion baht in 2026, up from 11.913 billion baht in 2025, and net profit of 1.338 billion baht in 2026, from 1.316 billion baht in 2025, before rising to 1.425 billion baht in 2027. It values the company using a DCF method with a WACC of 7.7% and a 2027 target price of 12.00 baht.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, said in an analysis that healthcare stocks remain attractive, supported by cooperation between insurers and private hospitals that is evolving into a Healthcare Ecosystem covering prevention, screening, treatment and rehabilitation. This should draw Thai patients back for continuous service use and build a stable long-term revenue base. A survey found that domestic insurance revenue for BDMS, BH, PR9 and BCH grew at average rates of 12%, 16%, 12% and 7% respectively during 2023-2025. In the first half of 2026, domestic insurance revenue at BDMS, BH and PR9 still grew 2%, 1% and 8% respectively year on year, while BCH fell 6%. The share of domestic insurance revenue in total revenue, ranked from highest to lowest, was BDMS at 31%, PR9 at 26%, BCH at 24% and BH at 14%. The research team assesses that hospital sector earnings have passed their bottom in the second quarter of 2026 and are entering the high season for domestic service use, and therefore selects BDMS with a target price of 25 baht, PR9 with a target price of 24 baht and BCH with a target price of 12 baht as its top picks. Tisco Securities raised its fair value for PR9 to 24.00 baht from 22.70 baht and maintained its buy recommendation, expecting core business revenue in the third quarter of 2026 to be 1.47 billion baht, up 6% year on year and 11% quarter on quarter. Net profit is expected at 225 million baht, up 1% year on year and 22% quarter on quarter, while EBITDA is expected at 372 million baht, up 13% year on year and 19% quarter on quarter. It also raised its 2026-2028 net profit forecasts by 2.9%, 3.7% and 4.9% respectively. CGS International (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that combined net profit for the hospitals under its coverage will rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter, and recommends a take-profit level for PR9 at 20.00 baht and a stop-loss at 19.20 baht.

The research team at CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), expects hospital sector earnings to recover in the third quarter of 2026, forecasting that combined revenue for the six hospital operators under coverage will grow 11% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. The year-on-year increase is largely driven by the merger between RAM and THG. Excluding THG's results from RAM's consolidated financial statements, combined revenue is expected to grow 8% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. Most hospitals, with the exception of BDMS, should see revenue growth of about 5% year on year on the return of foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar and the Middle East. BDMS is expected to post the strongest revenue growth in the sector at 10% year on year, helped by a low base and the outbreaks of influenza and COVID-19. On net profit, CGSI expects the hospitals under coverage to post combined net profit growth of 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. PR9 is forecast to see net profit rise 11% year on year and 35% quarter on quarter to 248 million baht, while BCH will benefit from a higher share of Middle Eastern patients seeking treatment for complex diseases, putting its net profit for the first nine months of 2026 at 71% of the research team's full-year 2026 profit forecast. CGSI believes the sector's overall net profit has already passed its trough, and therefore recommends maintaining an Overweight rating on the sector, selecting BH and PR9 as its top picks on their higher share of foreign patients than peers and greater flexibility in adjusting strategy.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities issued an analysis of hospital sector stocks, assigning an "overweight" investment rating after finding an acceleration in influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks in the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026. Influenza patients between September 13 and 19 rose to 48,100 from 21,753 the previous week, while COVID-19 cases rose to 34,798 from 15,897. More than 50 to 60 percent of the new patients are in Bangkok, spanning both children and working-age adults. The research team takes a positive view of the hospital sector, especially BCH and BDMS, which derive roughly 87 percent and 69 percent of revenue respectively from Thai patients. BCH's hospital revenue in August rose 10 percent year on year, accelerating from 7 percent growth in July, while BDMS came in at 9 to 10 percent growth, accelerating from 8 percent, and September is expected to continue growing. The team therefore assesses that third-quarter 2026 operating results have a chance of being the strongest quarter of the year. The research team picked BDMS and BCH as top picks. For BDMS it maintained a "buy" recommendation with a 2027 fair value of 25.00 baht, while BCH has a fair value of 12.00 baht with a "trading buy" recommendation, after its share price rose and already reflected some of the positive factors. However, BCH still has upside from an adjustment to social security treatment fees that is expected to become clear by the end of October. If the per-head capitation rate rises 10 percent, it is expected to lift social security revenue by 3 percent and 2027 profit by 4 percent, which is not yet included in the estimates.

The US Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12–0 to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaled it may raise once more this year. Its latest projections put the year-end 2026 rate at about 4.1%, with 2027 likely holding steady before a possible cut in 2028. Several brokers assess the meeting as negative for the Thai stock market in the short term, because US Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to strengthen, which could pressure foreign capital flows and share prices, especially growth stocks and those with high P/E ratios, amid inflation still above the 2% target and oil prices holding above 100 dollars a barrel, forcing the market to cope with a prolonged period of high interest rates. Tisco Securities estimates the SET will move in a range of 1,570–1,660 points, with support at 1,570–1,580 points and resistance at 1,630 and 1,660 points, and highlights the energy and commodities group such as PTTEP, PTT, SPRC, TOP, IVL, PTTGC, CPF, TFG, GFPT, TVO, SCGP and SCCC; the banking and insurance group such as KBANK, KTB, TTB, BLA and TLI; and the AI, infrastructure and power group such as HANA, AMATA, WHA, GULF, EGCO, ADVANC, TRUE and STECON. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities favors domestic and defensive plays with clear revenue and cash flow, especially BDMS and BCH, and warns that expensive, rate-sensitive stocks such as DELTA could come under pressure if the Fed signals more sustained rate hikes than the market expects.

Pi Securities estimates the SET index today will move in a range of 1570 to 1595, viewing Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation again on expectations of lower yields ahead. It names stocks in this group including MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR. Meanwhile, US stock markets closed higher, with the DJIA up 0.61% and the S&P 500 up 1.14%, after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled it may hike once more this year. Brent crude fell to around 104 to 105 dollars per barrel after Middle East concerns eased somewhat and Saudi Arabia said it would resume oil exports, helping push the US 10-year yield and 30-year yield lower. On US economic data released overnight, initial jobless claims came in at about 196,000, below market expectations. For short-term strategy, it recommends TECH names including DELTA and KCE after the Kospi rose about 2.5% this morning, as well as the tourism group including AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN and HMPRO, and the hospital group including BDMS, BCH and PR9.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.

Analysts at Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assess that this meeting of the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise the policy rate by 0.25% in what is being called an Insurance Rate Hike, a pre-emptive move. The market has already priced in about 92% odds of a hike this round, so the bigger driver for the market is the direction of the Dot Plot, along with inflation projections and the number of remaining rate increases ahead. KSS believes that if the Fed signals a pause to assess more economic and inflation data, the stock market could see a short-term rebound, or Relief Rally, with domestic and defensive stocks drawing more attention, especially hospitals such as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, or BDMS, and Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH. If instead the Fed signals continued rate hikes beyond market expectations, that would pressure stocks with high valuations that are sensitive to bond yields, such as Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA. Meanwhile, Phillip Securities (Thailand), or PST, assesses that the Thai stock market is likely to move sideways down in the short term on investors reducing risk ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the 2-year bond yield rising to 4.69% while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.04%, the highest levels since 2024 and 2007 respectively. As for Thai stocks that benefit from interest rates holding at a high level, the research team names the banking group: TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, Kasikornbank, or KBANK, SCB X, or SCB, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. In the insurance group: Bangkok Life Assurance, or BLA, Thai Life Insurance, or TLI, and Dhipaya Group Holdings, or TIPH.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

Pie Securities stated that the U.S. stock market remains volatile due to signals of slowing investment from AI leaders, pressuring the SEMI group, while U.S. bond yields continue to rise across all maturities, reflecting concerns over inflation and declining confidence in the U.S. government. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56% as investors worried about an AI slowdown following a proposal by the CEO of Anthropic calling for a pause in AI development, leading to selling in chip and data center stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil closed above 100 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline. GOOGL rose 3.2%, MSFT gained 2%, and META added 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool assigns a 92% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. For the domestic market, the SET is estimated at 1,580 to 1,605 points. This morning, the KOSPI fell 0.6%, which may pressure tech stocks such as DELTA and HANA. The strategy therefore focuses on 13 value stocks: banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; hospital group BDMS, BH, BCH, PR9; retail group CPALL, CPN, HMPRO; and export group ITC, TU, which benefit from the weakening baht.

Krungsri Securities recommends buying shares of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, with a target price of 12.00 baht, viewing the revenue recovery in the third quarter of 2026 as a short-term catalyst, while an adjustment to social security treatment fees and M&A are medium-term upside. Krungsri research expects medical revenue in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 6-7% year on year, driven by increased service usage among both Thai and foreign patients. A key highlight is that BCH derives as much as 38% of its total medical revenue from social security, or SSO. The research study indicates that a 10% increase in the flat-rate social security treatment fee from 1,808 baht would boost net profit by about 11% and add roughly 0.60 to 0.70 baht per share to the fair value. In addition, from September 1, 2026, BCH will begin consolidating the operating results of Rajavej Ubon Ratchathani Hospital, which has average revenue of about 400,000 to 500,000 baht per month, helping to expand its revenue base and extend long-term growth. BCH shares in the afternoon traded at 11.00 baht, up 0.10 baht, or 0.92%, with trading value of 12.65 million baht.

Tisco Securities has raised its fair value for shares of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, to 12.80 baht from 10.90 baht, maintaining its "Buy" recommendation and shifting its valuation base to the end of 2570. The research team raised its net profit forecasts for 2569-2571 by 4.6%, 4.7% and 5.3% respectively, to reflect actual results in the first half of 2569, a better outlook for the second half of 2569, and the inclusion of the acquisition of Rajavej Ubon Ratchathani Hospital in its estimates. It expects total revenue in 2569 to be flat compared with the previous year, while the margin will fall from 23.9% in 2568 to 22.7% in 2569 due to the loss of Cambodian patients and a decline in inpatient numbers. BCH also announced a special dividend of 0.20 baht per share, bringing total interim dividends to 0.35 baht per share, or a payout ratio of 142% for its first-half 2569 results. The research team therefore raised its full-year dividend per share forecast from 0.40 baht to 0.65 baht, and expects the special dividend to lift BCH's ROE to 9.4% in 2569F from a previous estimate of 8.8%, before recovering steadily to 9.8-9.9% in 2570-2571F. Key positive factors include the possibility that the SSO reimbursement rate will be raised as early as November 2569, as well as a recovery in the Cambodian and Kuwaiti markets.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that Riyadh Air will launch direct flights between Riyadh and Bangkok starting September 2, 2026, and plans to increase frequency to 7 flights per week by October 2026. This will enhance convenience for patients from Saudi Arabia and the Middle East to access Thai medical services, especially for complex diseases such as heart disease, cancer, and orthopedic conditions, which are self-pay groups with high revenue per case. Currently, Saudi tourists traveling to Thailand exceed 200,000 per year, or about 27-28% of all Middle Eastern tourists. The research department believes that BH will benefit the most, given its foreign patient revenue accounts for as much as 67% of hospital revenue, and revenue from Middle Eastern patients is about 22% of total revenue. Although revenue from Saudi patients accounts for only 1.0% of total revenue, compared to BCH at 0.6% and BDMS at 0.1%, it is expected that this market will grow faster than the average for foreign patients over the next 3-5 years, driven by a population base of over 35 million and strong purchasing power. Meanwhile, BDMS and BCH are likely to benefit secondarily, especially BDMS, which can expand into Wellness, Preventive Medicine, and Longevity Programs that are gaining popularity among Saudi clients. The research department has upgraded its investment stance on the hospital group to "overweight" from expectations of the strongest third-quarter 2026 earnings of the year, and has selected BH as a top pick with a "buy" recommendation and a 2027 fair value of 225.00 baht.