TISCO Financial Group Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based company that, along with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking products and services to individuals and businesses. It operates through four segments: Commercial Banking, Securities, Asset Management, and Support Business. Its offerings include deposit products, personal and corporate loans, investment services, insurance products, investment banking services, and various transaction and wealth management services. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Why is TISCO Financial Group Public Company Limited (TISCO.BK) moving?
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TISCO's steady profits and high dividend yield stand out as bank sector earnings slip
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TISCO's Q3 profit seen growing while most peers decline Several brokers expect TISCO to post a year-on-year profit increase in Q3 2026, one of only a few banks to do so, helped by loan growth and lower bad-loan provisions. That makes TISCO stand out as the sector's overall profit falls, supporting its share price.
This is the core new reason TISCO is moving: it is outperforming a weakening sector on earnings.
High dividend yield and top payout ratio attract income investors TISCO is expected to pay about 7.75 baht per share for 2026, a yield near 6%, with the highest payout ratio in the sector at 90%. A steady, generous dividend gives investors a reason to hold the stock, especially when other bank profits are shrinking.
Dividend strength is a major new support for TISCO's price and is repeatedly highlighted this period.
New loan products and EV lending expand TISCO's business TISCO launched title-deed cash loans for retail and SME customers and a debt-consolidation auto cash campaign, while its EV loans hold over 10% market share. These new products can grow loans and fee income, supporting future earnings and the share price.
These are concrete new business expansions that can drive TISCO's future revenue.
Valuation looks stretched after rally, brokers keep Reduce ratings After a 13% rise this year, TISCO trades at 2.4 times book value, well above its historical average. Krungsri and Trinity keep Reduce or Hold ratings with 115 baht targets, below the current price, warning the rally has already priced in its strengths.
This is the main counterweight: analysts see limited upside and downside risk from the high valuation.
ASL expects 9 banks' Q3 2026 profit at 64,921 million baht, flat from previous quarter
ASL Securities estimates the combined net profit of nine commercial banks in the third quarter of 2026 at 64,921 million baht, flat from the previous quarter, up 0.4% but down 9.8% from the same period a year earlier, pressured by lower net interest income amid a narrower net interest margin, together with limited loan growth and slowing non-interest income, especially gains from investments and securities trading. However, financial costs that have begun to decline in line with deposit rate adjustments and gradually easing credit risk costs will help support earnings. ASL expects the banking group's combined net profit for the first nine months of 2026 to come in at 196,520 million baht, down 4% from the same period a year earlier. For mid-sized and small banks, ASL sees KKP and CREDIT as likely standouts. KKP is expected to post third-quarter 2026 net profit of 2,100 million baht, down 1% from the previous quarter but up 26% from the same period a year earlier, the highest in the group by year-on-year growth. CREDIT is expected to post net profit of 1,160 million baht, up 17% from the previous quarter and 14% from the same period a year earlier, the highest quarter-on-quarter growth in the group. TISCO is expected to post profit growth of 1% quarter on quarter and 3% year on year. Among large banks, KTB and BBL are expected to see profit recover from the previous quarter by 5% and 7% respectively, while KBANK and SCB still face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income. For the fourth-quarter 2026 outlook, ASL expects the banking group's profit to slow from the previous quarter due to a seasonal rise in operating expenses and asset-quality risks, particularly the impact of flooding on retail loans, small and medium-sized enterprise business and hire-purchase loans, which may force some banks to set aside additional provisions through management overlays.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative ASL expects SCB to still face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income in Q3 2026.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive ASL expects TISCO to post Q3 2026 profit growth of 1% quarter on quarter and 3% year on year.
CREDIT.BK · Capital · Positive ASL expects CREDIT to post Q3 2026 net profit up 17% q/q and 14% y/y, the highest quarter-on-quarter growth in the group.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive ASL names KKP a standout with Q3 2026 net profit up 26% y/y, the highest year-on-year growth in the group.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive ASL expects BBL's Q3 2026 profit to recover 7% from the previous quarter, the strongest rebound among large banks.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Negative ASL says KBANK still faces pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income.
Phillip expects SET to swing between 1,565 and 1,600 next week on IMF-World Bank meeting boost
Phillip Securities assesses that the SET Index next week, from 12 to 16 October 2026, is likely to move sideways to sideways up in a range of 1,565 to 1,600 points, supported by the annual IMF-World Bank meeting in Bangkok from 12 to 18 October. UTCC expects around 15,000 to 20,000 attendees, and if average spending runs 30,000 to 50,000 baht per person, it would generate roughly 5 billion to 10 billion baht in short-term circulation in the economy. The research team views this as positive sentiment for tourism and related stocks, as well as the electric train and oil retail groups. And given that the deputy prime minister and finance minister indicated there will be a forum discussing AI infrastructure and data centers, the team is positive on the power plant and utilities group, the communications group, the electronics group, and the industrial estate group. Meanwhile, speculation over third-quarter 2026 earnings, starting with TISCO, whose net profit is expected to grow 5.3% year-on-year and 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, is another supporting factor. Global stock markets are expected to move sideways to sideways up, with attention on US September CPI and PPI figures, which could accelerate on crude oil prices, and the IMF-World Bank meeting on 16 October, where Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will take the stage alongside the IMF's Kristalina Georgieva to discuss the direction of the global economy.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive Speculation over Q3 2026 earnings with TISCO's net profit expected to grow 5.3% y/y and 3.3% q/q is a supporting factor for the index.
Brokers expect TISCO's third-quarter profit to hold steady at 1.76-1.82 billion baht, dividend yield 6.2%
Several brokers expect TISCO Financial Group, the first commercial bank to report earnings each quarter, to announce its third-quarter results around mid-October, with profit forecast at approximately 1.76-1.82 billion baht, a slight increase from the same period last year and roughly flat from the previous quarter, with an estimated dividend yield of 6.2% per year. Bank of Ayudhya Securities expects third-quarter net profit of 1.78 billion baht, up 3% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by interest income rising 5% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter on an increase in net interest margin to 4.99%, compared with 4.88% in the third quarter of last year and 4.98% in the second quarter of this year. Trinity Securities expects profit of 1,766 million baht, flat quarter-on-quarter and up 2% year-on-year, maintaining its full-year 2026 profit estimate at 6,861 million baht, up 3% year-on-year, with a hold recommendation and a 2027 target price of 115 baht. Pi Securities maintains its hold recommendation and has revised its fundamental value to 125 baht, expecting third-quarter net profit of 1,761 million baht, up 1.8% year-on-year but down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, and maintains its full-year 2026 net profit estimate of 5% year-on-year growth. Phillip Securities (Thailand) expects profit of 1.8 billion baht, up 5.3% year-on-year, maintains its full-year 2026 profit estimate at 6.9 billion baht, up 3.2% year-on-year, gives a fundamental price of 131 baht and recommends gradual buying, expecting a dividend of 7.75 baht this year and 8 baht next year, representing dividend yields of 6.2% and 6.4% respectively. DAOL Securities (Thailand) recommends holding with a target price of 125 baht, estimating third-quarter net profit at 1,766 million baht, up 2% year-on-year but flat quarter-on-quarter, and maintains its full-year 2026 profit estimate at 6.9 billion baht, growing 4% year-on-year.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive Brokers expect TISCO's Q3 profit to hold steady at 1.76-1.82 billion baht with a 6.2% dividend yield, with several maintaining hold/buy recommendations and target prices.
7 banks set to report Q3 2026 results; brokers expect profits to plunge 11-15%
Seven commercial banks, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, TTB, KKP and TISCO, are entering the third-quarter 2026 earnings season amid pressure from a falling interest rate cycle. Finansia Syrus Securities, or FSS, estimates the seven banks' combined net profit at 54.98 billion baht, down 0.7% from the previous quarter and down 11.6% from the same period a year earlier. Miss Chitra Amorntham, Deputy Managing Director of the Securities Analysis Department at FSS, said the main pressure comes from the policy rate having been cut three times, or 0.75%, over the past 12 months. Kasikorn Securities, or KS, estimates combined third-quarter net profit at 49.4 billion baht, down 2% from the previous quarter and down 15% from a year earlier. Yuanta Securities estimates it at 54.905 billion baht, down 0.9% from the previous quarter and down 11.7% from a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2026, FSS expects the seven banks to post combined net profit of 167.519 billion baht, down 5.3% from a year earlier, or about 78% of the full-year estimate. KBANK has the highest profit at 40.391 billion baht, up 2.8%, while KKP grew the fastest at 47.6%, with profit of 6.113 billion baht. FSS maintains a market-weight investment rating, picking BBL with a target price of 240 baht and KTB with a target price of 47.30 baht as its top picks. KS maintains a positive view, picking KKP with a target price of 153 baht and KTB with a target price of 48 baht as its top picks. Yuanta Securities noted that the share price correction has pushed the dividend yield of SCB, KKP, KTB and TISCO back above 6% in 2026, with SCB leading the group at 6.9% and a fair value of 160 baht.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Negative BBL is among the seven banks whose Q3 2026 profits are expected to fall 11-15% due to the policy rate being cut three times in the past 12 months.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Negative KBANK is one of the seven banks facing profit pressure from the falling interest rate cycle, though it still has the highest profit at 40.391 billion baht.
KKP.BK · Monetary · Negative KKP is among the seven banks expected to see combined Q3 profits drop 11-15% amid the rate-cut cycle, despite being the fastest grower at 47.6%.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Negative KTB is one of the seven banks whose Q3 2026 profits are forecast to plunge 11-15% due to three policy rate cuts over the past 12 months.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Negative SCB is among the seven banks facing profit declines from the falling interest rate cycle, though its dividend yield has risen above 6%.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Negative TISCO is among the seven banks whose Q3 2026 combined net profit is forecast to fall 11-15% year-on-year due to the policy-rate cuts.
Kanthara Says Oil Prices and Bond Yields Will Drive Fund Flows, Recommends ITC with 21.30 Baht Target
Kanthara Ladawan na Ayudhya, an executive director at Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, said on the stock news program Stock Market Insight that the Thai stock market still faces its main pressure from rising US government bond yields and the direction of global crude oil prices. If Brent crude holds above 102 US dollars per barrel, that would be an important support level from which prices could rebound, but if it falls below 100 US dollars and moves around the low 90s, that would ease concerns and be more positive for the market. Oil prices are the most important variable reflecting the severity of war and geopolitics, which in turn affects inflation and interest rates. If oil prices decline, foreign fund flows are expected to return to the Thai stock market. As for the recent selling by foreign investors, he views it as stemming from the rise in bond yields rather than concerns over domestic flooding. Currently, cumulative net foreign buying stands at around 10 billion baht. As for the electronics sector, although it has faced selling pressure from concerns over revenue and delays in chip deliveries, market demand remains high. KCE and HANA still have upward trends, while DELTA is a market-leading stock and a global megatrend, with its share price still below the fundamental value that FSS estimates at 290 baht. As for commercial banks such as TISCO, which is preparing to report earnings among the first, the initial assessment is that results may be flat. In the recent period, bank stocks rose more than 30% before facing profit-taking that reduced returns to 25-26%. The standout stock that FSS recommends is I-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC, which operates a pet food business, with a next-year target price based on fundamentals of 21.30 baht, as net profit is expected to gradually recover.
ITC.BK · Capital · Positive FSS names ITC its standout recommended stock with a next-year target price based on fundamentals.
DELTA.BK · Capital · Positive FSS says DELTA's share price is still below its estimated fundamental value of 290 baht, an analyst valuation call.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Neutral TISCO is preparing to report earnings among the first, with initial assessment that results may be flat.
HANA.BK · Demand · Positive Article says HANA still has an upward trend as market demand for electronics remains high despite chip delivery delays.
KCE.BK · Demand · Positive Article says KCE still has an upward trend as market demand for electronics remains high despite revenue concerns and chip delays.
Tisco expects BTS to remain loss-making through 2028/29 with no dividends, maintains Hold with 3.00 baht target
Analysts at Tisco Securities expect BTS to remain in net loss through the 2028/29 fiscal year, with no dividend payments during that period. They estimate a net loss of 2.46 billion baht for the 2026/27 fiscal year, in line with a first-quarter 2026/27 net loss of 728 million baht before extraordinary items. The main pressures come from adjusted net debt of 133 billion baht, financial costs of 1.94 billion baht, and a 31% rise in SG&A expenses to 1.94 billion baht in the first quarter of 2026/27. The estimates do not yet include the effects of asset sales or SG&A reduction measures, because the company has not disclosed clear details or a timeline. Tisco therefore maintains its Hold recommendation and its fair value of 3.00 baht, seeing profitability gradually improving on the common ticketing system targeted to launch in January 2027, and on the shift from BTSGIF profit sharing, which stood at 276 million baht in 2025/26, to a 13-year O&M contract after the BTSGIF concession ends in 2029. O&M revenue is expected to rise from 6.41 billion baht in 2030/31 to 8.94 billion baht in 2041/42. Meanwhile, the Pink and Yellow lines are likely to approach breakeven of about 150,000 trips per day sooner, with Pink line passengers expected to rise 20-30%. Key risks include delays in cost cuts or asset sales, delays in launching new projects, lower-than-expected passenger growth, and higher debt from financing the UTA project and Thai homes.
BTS.BK · Capital · Negative Tisco expects BTS to stay loss-making through 2028/29 with no dividends, citing heavy debt and rising SG&A, and maintains Hold with a 3.00 baht target.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Neutral Tisco is the analyst issuing the Hold rating and 3.00 baht fair value on BTS, but the article reports no development affecting Tisco's own business.
DBS Vickers Securities says bank dividend stocks average 6%, picks KBANK and KTB as top choices
DBS Vickers Securities released an analysis noting that Thai bank stocks remain attractive, expecting the sector's average dividend yield in 2026 to be around 6%, higher than the stock market average of about 3%. It also expects that in 2027 the banks will continue to maintain high dividend payouts because their capital bases remain strong, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of about 17%, above the Bank of Thailand's minimum requirement of 12%. Looking at individual banks, SCB is expected to have the highest dividend yield in the group at 6.7%, followed by KTB and TISCO at 6.3% and KKP at 6.1%, while TTB and KBANK still have additional upside if leftover funds from share buyback programs are used to pay extra dividends. The research team maintains an "overweight" investment rating on the banking sector, selecting KBANK and KTB as top picks, with a target price for KBANK of 270 baht based on its strength in wealth management, and a target price for KTB of 50 baht based on its strong asset quality.
Stocks to Watch: Banking Group Enters Q3 2026, FSS Expects 7 Banks to Post Combined Profit of 55 Billion Baht
Banking stocks are entering the third-quarter 2026 earnings season amid pressure from a falling interest-rate cycle. FSS estimates that seven stocks, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, TTB, KKP and TISCO, will report combined net profit of 54.98 billion baht, down 0.7% QoQ and down 11.6% YoY. The main pressure comes from three policy rate cuts, or 0.75%, over the past 12 months, which pushed loan yields lower, although cheaper funding costs and loan growth have partly offset the impact. Meanwhile, Thai Airways has made no progress in its search for a new CEO, with applicants saying they have only received an email confirming they passed qualification screening but have not yet been told the date for their vision presentations. AOT is set to sign two AOTGA contracts tomorrow, covering the ground services and the third cargo terminal projects, with a combined value of 67.3 billion baht over 25 years, starting operations in 2027. Brokers note that AOTGA is a key piece in strengthening airport revenue after it earned a profit of 898 million baht in 2025, and expect Airports of Thailand to post normal profit of 4.7 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the full quarter of the new PSC, and to raise its 2027 target with profit surging 45% to 28 billion baht, with a target price of 73 baht. As for MGC, brokers expect normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to jump 30% to 350 million baht on XPENG X9 deliveries, and expect a new high of about 500 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a buy recommendation and a target of 20.20 baht per share. Meanwhile, three real estate associations are joining forces to hold the 50th House and Condo Expo from 29 October to 1 May 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, targeting sales of more than 10 billion baht. GRAMMY reported that GMM MUSIC had total revenue of 2.1612 billion baht in the first half of 2026, up 12.2%, and net profit of 280.7 million baht, up 29.2%. For TRUE, brokers recommend buying and expect record third-quarter 2026 profit of nearly 7 billion baht, with a maximum target of 19 baht. DIF is expected to post investment profit of 3.138 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 3% from a year earlier, and to pay a dividend of 0.222 baht per unit, with an average full-year yield of 8.7% and a target of 10.60 baht.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive AOT to sign two AOTGA contracts worth 67.3 billion baht covering ground services and third cargo terminal, strengthening airport revenue.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Negative SCB is among the seven banks FSS expects to post lower combined profit, pressured by three policy rate cuts that reduced loan yields.
TISCO.BK · Monetary · Negative TISCO is one of the seven banks FSS expects to report lower combined net profit, hit by the falling interest-rate cycle.
TTB.BK · Monetary · Negative TTB is among the seven banks FSS expects to post lower combined profit, pressured by three policy rate cuts lowering loan yields.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Negative FSS expects BBL among seven banks to post combined profit down 11.6% YoY, pressured by three policy rate cuts lowering loan yields.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Negative KBANK included in FSS estimate of seven banks with combined profit down 11.6% YoY amid falling interest-rate cycle.
CGSI expects Q3/2026 bank profits to shrink 9.2%, names KBANK as Top Pick
CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that the combined net profit of the eight banks covered by its analysts in the third quarter of 2026 will come to 57.4 billion baht, down 9.2% from the same period a year earlier but up 1.8% from the previous quarter. The decline is pressured by an overall commercial banking sector loan book that is trending toward slower expansion, based on monthly loan data from the Bank of Thailand for August 2026, which showed that large corporate customers of Bangkok Bank, or BBL, and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, made substantial debt repayments. As a result, the combined loans of the banks covered by the analysts fell 0.1% in August from the previous month, though they still grew 3.0% from the same period a year earlier and are up 2.4% since the start of the year. The banks still posting positive loan growth are led by Thai Credit Bank, or CREDIT, Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. Pre-provision operating profit is expected to fall 6.8% from the same period a year earlier but rise 1.7% from the previous quarter, while the net interest margin is expected at 2.89% and the non-performing loan ratio at 3.66%. Breaking it down bank by bank, KKP is expected to post the strongest performance, with net profit growing as much as 32.2% from the same period a year earlier, followed by TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, whose net profit is expected to grow 4.6% from the same period a year earlier. On the other hand, BBL is expected to post the weakest results, with net profit down 24.5% from the same period a year earlier, followed by KTB, whose net profit is expected to fall 16% from the same period a year earlier. On investment strategy, CGSI recommends maintaining a Neutral weighting and selects Kasikornbank, or KBANK, as its Top Pick for the sector, given that fee income from wealth management accounted for as much as 18% of its non-interest income in 2025, and it expects a dividend yield of as much as 6.2% in 2026, beating the sector average of 5.6%.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative BBL expected to post the weakest results with net profit down 24.5% YoY, pressured by large corporate debt repayments.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive CGSI selects Kasikornbank as its Top Pick with a Neutral sector weighting.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP expected to post the strongest performance with net profit growing 32.2% YoY.
KTB.BK · Capital · Negative KTB expected to post net profit down 16% YoY, among the weakest results.
CREDIT.BK · Capital · Positive Thai Credit Bank is among the banks still posting positive loan growth.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive CGSI notes TISCO is among the banks still posting positive loan growth, a favorable mention in the Q3/2026 earnings preview.
4 brokerages expect Q3/2026 bank group profits to slow to 49,400-54,980 million baht
Four leading brokerages estimate that the combined net profit of seven commercial banks in the third quarter of 2026 will slow compared with a year earlier and hold steady to edge down from the previous quarter, with combined net profit expected at around 49,400 to 54,980 million baht, according to Yuanta Securities (Thailand), Bualuang Securities, Finansia Syrus Securities, and Kasikorn Securities. The main pressures come from net interest margins narrowing along the rate-cutting cycle, lower investment and FVTPL gains from a high base a year earlier, and still-limited growth in retail and SME loans. These are partly offset by lighter provisioning after many banks front-loaded reserves in the first half, a steady average non-performing loan ratio of about 3.5%, and fee income beginning to recover on wealth management and capital markets business. For the fourth-quarter outlook, the brokerages see the overall picture weakening further both year on year and quarter on quarter, possibly marking the year's low, while for the full year 2026 they expect the bank group's combined net profit to fall about 3.5% to 5.3% before returning to roughly 5% growth in 2027. On top picks, Yuanta chose KKP with a target price of 130 baht, Bualuang chose KKP, TISCO, BBL, KBANK and TTB, Finansia Syrus chose BBL with a target price of 240 baht and KTB with a target price of 47.30 baht, while Kasikorn chose KTB and KKP, raising their target prices by 1% to 3%.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP is a top pick for both Yuanta (130 baht target) and Kasikorn Securities, which raised its target price.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Finansia Syrus picks KTB with a 47.30 baht target and Kasikorn Securities also selects KTB while raising target prices.
BBL.BK · Capital · Neutral Bualuang and Finansia Syrus name BBL a top pick with a 240 baht target, but the group's Q3/2026 profits are seen slowing on margin pressure.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Neutral Bualuang lists KBANK among top picks, yet the bank group's Q3/2026 net profit is expected to slow on narrowing NIMs and lower FVTPL gains.
TTB.BK · Capital · Negative Brokerages expect the bank group's Q3/2026 combined net profit to slow on narrowing net interest margins and lower investment/FVTPL gains, with TTB named among Bualuang's top picks.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO is named among Bualuang Securities' top picks for the bank group.
Brokers expect Q3/2026 banking sector core profit to grow 5% to 42.9 billion baht
Bualuang Securities' Research team estimates that the combined core profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 will be 42.9 billion baht, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, higher than the third-quarter 2026 GDP estimate of 2.0% YoY. Two main factors support this: lower provisioning and growing fee income. For provisioning, the sector's average rate is expected at 1.30%, down 17bps YoY and 2bps QoQ, while the average non-performing loan ratio to total loans is expected to edge up slightly from 2.98% at the end of June 2026 to 3.00% at the end of September 2026. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to non-performing loans is expected at 204.1%, flat QoQ. Total net fee income is expected at 40.3 billion baht, up 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven mainly by the wealth management business, whose combined net asset value of bank-owned asset management companies stood at 7.8 trillion baht at the end of August 2026, up 4% since the start of the quarter and up 11% YoY. Securities brokerage fee income is likely to grow significantly both YoY and QoQ, from securities trading value expected to rise 64% YoY and 34% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026. Counting total net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026, it is expected at 55.2 billion baht, down 11% YoY and flat QoQ, due to lower average net interest margin and lower mark-to-market gains on financial instruments. Banks expected to post YoY core profit growth are KKP +73%, TISCO +23%, BBL +20%, KBANK +5% and TTB +4%, while KTB is expected to see core profit fall 11% YoY and SCB is expected to be flat YoY. For the fourth quarter of 2026, combined core profit is expected at 39.7 billion baht, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ, on higher operating expenses. For 2027, the banking sector's combined net profit is expected at 221 billion baht, up 1% YoY, supported by loan growth expected at 2% YoY and net fee income growth of 4% YoY, while average net interest margin has likely already passed its trough in the second quarter of 2026 after most loan and deposit rate adjustments were completed.
PLANB Jumps 6%, Tisco Raises Target to 8 Baht on 860 Million Baht iCare Investment Deal
Shares of Plan B Media Public Company Limited, or PLANB, rose 6.47% to 7.40 baht on trading value of 128.00 million baht after Tisco Securities stated in an analysis that the PLANB board approved subscribing to newly issued shares of iCare Insurance totaling 1,126.3 million shares, or 46.28% of the shares after the capital increase, at 0.7636 baht per share, for a total investment value of 860 million baht. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. After the capital increase, iCare will become a joint venture of both PLANB and Com Seven Public Company Limited, or COM7, with each holding an equal direct stake of 46.28% in iCare, while PLANB holds 11.01% of COM7. Tisco views the deal as a long-term positive, noting that iCare's profit rose from 62 million baht in 2024 to 148 million baht in 2025 and 219 million baht in the first half of 2026, which included an extraordinary item of about 61 million baht, leaving normalized profit at approximately 158 million baht, or about 316 million baht on an annualized basis, equivalent to a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of about 5.9 times, below the roughly 9 times at which insurance businesses trade. Tisco also raised its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 8% and 32% respectively, excluding the iCare business, and maintained its buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 8.00 baht per share based on the sum-of-the-parts method, applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times for PLANB and 17 times for COM7.
PLANB.BK · Capital · Positive PLANB board approved an 860 million baht investment in iCare and Tisco raised its target price to 8 baht with higher profit forecasts.
COM7.BK · Capital · Neutral COM7 is a joint-venture partner in the iCare deal and referenced in Tisco's sum-of-the-parts valuation, but the news is not about COM7 itself.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Neutral Tisco Securities is the analyst issuing the report and target price, not a subject of the news.
SAWAD Confident Loans Won't Be Downgraded, Flood Impact Contained
Ms. Thida Kaewbutta, Director of Strategy at Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited, or SAWAD, disclosed that the company is preparing relief and assistance measures for customers affected by flooding. The title-loan portfolio will see only limited impact because the flooding occurred only in certain areas, and she is not worried that credit quality will be downgraded from Tier 1 to Tier 2 or Tier 3. She also expects lending to grow in line with the targets set for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, Mr. Trin Sittisawas, Director of Securities Analysis at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) Company Limited, stated that commercial banks and non-bank lenders will face short-term impacts from debt-relief measures by the government sector and the Bank of Thailand, which will slightly pressure yields and may force additional provisioning over roughly one to two quarters. Commercial banks will be affected only to a limited degree because they have shifted their customer base toward large corporates and salaried employees. As for TISCO and KKP, although they have auto-hire-purchase loans, most of their portfolios consist of new cars covered by insurance against flooding, so KKP is seen as a standout stock if its price declines. The non-bank group is more at risk, especially TIDLOR and SAWAD, which hold four-wheel vehicle title-loan portfolios. TIDLOR has a significant proportion and is more exposed to collateral value and the prices of repossessed cars, while SAWAD has SCAP, which focuses on motorcycle hire-purchase that is easier to repair and has already accelerated write-offs at a high level. MTC, whose main portfolio is motorcycle title loans and whose customer base is not concentrated in flooded areas, is a standout stock. Meanwhile, AMC players such as BAM face limited impact and may even benefit from buyer behavior that places less emphasis on locations prone to flooding.
TIDLOR.BK · Regulation · Negative TIDLOR is named as the non-bank lender most at risk from government and Bank of Thailand debt-relief measures, with heavy exposure to four-wheel title-loan collateral and repossessed-car prices.
SAWAD.BK · Regulation · Negative SAWAD holds four-wheel vehicle title-loan portfolios exposed to government and BoT debt-relief measures pressuring yields and provisioning.
MTC.BK · Regulation · Positive MTC's motorcycle title-loan portfolio and customer base outside flooded areas make it a standout amid debt-relief measures.
SCAP.BK · Regulation · Positive SAWAD's SCAP focuses on motorcycle hire-purchase that is easier to repair and has already accelerated write-offs, limiting flood impact.
TISCO.BK · Regulation · Neutral TISCO is mentioned as having auto-hire-purchase loans, but most of its portfolio is new cars insured against flooding, so the debt-relief impact is limited.
KKP.BK · Regulation · Neutral KKP's auto-hire-purchase portfolio is mostly new cars insured against flooding, seen as a standout if price declines.
Trinity forecasts TISCO third-quarter profit of 1.766 billion baht, recommends hold with 115 baht target
Trinity Securities has issued an analysis of TISCO Financial Group Public Company Limited, or TISCO, forecasting third-quarter profit of 1.766 billion baht, flat quarter on quarter and up 2% year on year. Net interest income is expected to improve slightly by about 2% quarter on quarter, driven by loan growth of roughly 0.6% quarter on quarter from the hire-purchase loan segment, while funding costs are expected to decline slightly further on deposit repricing. Non-interest income is expected to rise about 1% quarter on quarter. Loan-loss provisions in the third quarter are expected to be higher, possibly reflecting excess provisioning to cushion against macroeconomic volatility and developments during the quarter. Trinity's research team recommends holding TISCO shares with a 2027 target price of 115 baht, noting the current share price offers no upside to the target even after including dividend returns. TISCO shares traded at 128 baht this afternoon, up 1.00 baht or 0.79%, with turnover of 223.38 million baht.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Neutral Trinity forecasts TISCO Q3 profit of 1.766bn baht (flat QoQ, +2% YoY) and recommends hold with a 115 baht target, below the current 128 baht price.
TNITY.BK · Capital · Neutral Trinity Securities is the analyst issuing the TISCO forecast and hold rating; the article reports its research call, not a company-specific development.
TISCO warns SMEs of bloated stockpiles as Chinese goods flood the market; ttb flags rising-star businesses
The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, is warning that Thai SME operators are facing multiple risks: harder access to funding, rising financial costs, production costs pushed up by inflation, slowing consumer purchasing power, and intensifying competition. Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic research at TISCO ESU, said that more than half of the inventory increase in the second quarter came from categories where sales fell but stockpiles rose, such as automobiles, petroleum, and chemicals, which could drag on economic growth from the first quarter of 2027 onward. He also noted that exports in the first two quarters of 2026 grew 20%, but the manufacturing sector grew only 0.1%, reflecting that goods produced for the domestic market barely grew and were displaced by Chinese products. Meanwhile, Thailand's exports rely increasingly on imported goods and components, rising from 48% in 2018 to about 70% today, creating a hollowing-out effect, with real economic value added barely moving since mid-2024. Methas proposed that the government use tax incentives for operators that use domestic raw materials and labor, or local content, such as tax exemptions for using 50% local content, following the example of Singapore, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia. Thakorn Piyapan, chief executive of TMBThanachart Bank, or ttb, said the group of greatest concern is operators that have opened many branches to the point of fierce market competition, such as beverage shop chains. Rising-star businesses that align with an aging society include pet-related businesses, both dog and cat hotels and pet food, as well as health hospitality, massage, meditation, and health food, along with niche-market businesses such as small boutique hotels, electronic components and AI, and clinics certified by the Food and Drug Administration, or FDA. Electric vehicle businesses still have opportunities, especially repair shops that adapt to serve EVs, including paint repair, inspections, and specialized services. Thakorn advised SMEs to start with small, modest investments first to gauge the market, and not to rush into opening 10 branches at once.
TISCO.BK · · Neutral TISCO ESU warns of SME risks from bloated stockpiles, weak domestic demand, and Chinese import displacement, but no direct financial impact on TISCO is stated.
TTB.BK · · Neutral ttb CEO comments on at-risk SME operators and rising-star businesses, but the article states no direct financial impact on ttb.
Flash floods force 8 banks to temporarily close over 200 branches in Bangkok, surrounding provinces and the East
Following heavy rain and widespread flooding in many areas of Bangkok, its surrounding provinces and provinces in the East, several financial institutions announced the temporary closure of more than 200 branches on 28 September 2026, while also adjusting the opening and closing hours of some branches. Krungthai Bank temporarily closed the most branches, 105 in total, comprising 74 closed due to flood impact and 31 closed for a special public holiday. Kasikornbank closed 57 branches, Siam Commercial Bank closed 37, Bank of Ayudhya closed 26, TTB closed 16, UOB closed 15, Land and Houses Bank closed 4, TISCO Bank and Thai Credit Bank closed 3 branches each, and CIMB Thai Bank closed 1 branch. Each bank has advised customers to use nearby branches or the bank's digital channels instead.
CGSI says floods drag SET below 1,600 points, sees it as a chance to accumulate DELTA, HANA and KCE
Nakorn Hataisattha, Head of Retail Investment Strategy Research and Economist at CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, said on the Stock News Market Focus programme on 28 September 2026 that the flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces this time differs from the great flood of 2011, because Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the Thai economy, making it a hugely important area for the country's economic activity. However, water levels in northern dams in 2026 stand at around 70%, compared with about 94% during the 2011 crisis, so the overall national risk still differs from that past event. Nakorn estimates the SET index could weaken below 1,600 points on selling driven by flood worries, but if the flooding eases within about four to five days, the market's correction could be a chance to buy certain stock groups. If the situation drags on beyond four to five days, the downside risk for the stock market will increase. Groups likely to come under pressure include property, stocks with factories in at-risk areas including electronic components such as KCE, insurers burdened by claims, and commercial banks on concerns about ECL provisioning. Retail stocks, meanwhile, may get a short-term positive sentiment boost from demand for consumer goods and home repair products. For high-dividend bank stocks such as TISCO and KKP, they could be an option if the situation eases quickly, with KKP also supported by the expansion of its investment platform business. CGSI believes that if the index falls below 1,600 points, the electronic components group is attractive to buy, especially DELTA, which still has a positive outlook from growing Thai exports of electronics and electrical appliances, and from the global investment cycle in AI, digital infrastructure, chips and memory, which continues to expand. If DELTA's share price falls sharply because of the floods, which are a one-off event, CGSI sees it as a chance to accumulate. Investors who do not want much volatility can consider HANA and KCE, and Nakorn said he likes HANA if the price falls to an attractive level.
DELTA.BK · Demand · Positive CGSI names DELTA as attractive to buy on positive outlook from growing Thai electronics exports and global AI/digital-infra investment cycle.
KCE.BK · Supply · Neutral KCE is flagged as pressured due to factories in flood at-risk areas, yet also named among electronics components stocks CGSI sees as attractive to buy.
HANA.BK · Demand · Positive CGSI lists HANA among stocks to accumulate on the flood-driven SET dip, citing the electronics components group's appeal.
KKP.BK · Monetary · Positive CGSI says high-dividend bank stocks like TISCO could be an option if the flooding eases quickly.
TISCO.BK · Monetary · Positive CGSI cites KKP as a high-dividend bank option if flooding eases, also supported by expansion of its investment platform business.
Kasikorn Securities Maintains Positive View on Banking Sector, Picks KTB and KKP as Top Picks
Kasikorn Securities stated in an analysis that the third-quarter 2026 profits of the seven banks under its coverage will come in at 49.4 billion baht, down 2% QoQ and 15% YoY, with the main pressure coming from lower fair value through profit or loss gains and lower investment gains QoQ as government bond yields rose. However, core operating performance is expected to improve QoQ on an anticipated 2bps QoQ rise in net interest margin thanks to lower interest costs, and a credit cost that is expected to fall 7bps on smaller management overlay provisions compared with the second quarter of 2026. Looking at individual stocks, KKP, TISCO and TTB are expected to report standout YoY third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 25%, 6% and 5% respectively, while BBL, KTB and SCB are expected to see significant YoY profit declines on weaker net interest margins and lower realized fair value through profit or loss and investment gains. For the fourth-quarter 2026 and 2027 outlook, banking sector profits are expected to remain supported by easing interest costs and credit costs gradually returning to normal levels, with loan growth expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2026 driven mainly by corporate and government loans. The research team maintains a positive view on the banking sector, selecting KTB and KKP as top picks, and has shifted the valuation base year for all banking stocks from mid-2027 to end-2027, raising individual target prices by 1–3% without any change to earnings forecasts.
Prateep Tangmatitham Cuts RATCH Stake to 0.87%, Lowest in 6 Years
Prateep Tangmatitham, a major shareholder of RATCH Group Public Company Limited, or RATCH, has clearly reduced his shareholding. He now holds 18,845,650 shares, or 0.87%, down from 27,335,450 shares, or 1.26%, marking his lowest stake in six years compared with 31,930,650 shares, or 1.47%, on September 3, 2025. This reduction earned him gains from share price appreciation and dividends proportional to his holding of about 13.19 million baht, after RATCH announced an interim cash dividend of 0.70 baht per share, payable on September 24, 2026. RATCH shares rose 29.66% during 2026. In the latest shareholder structure, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand is the largest holder with 978,750,000 shares, or 45.00%, followed by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand Savings Cooperative Limited with 128,224,936 shares, or 5.90%, and the Social Security Office with 101,870,550 shares, or 4.68%. Tisco Securities recommends a hold rating on RATCH with a fair value of 37.00 baht, viewing data centers as a potentially significant growth opportunity. RATCH is studying the development of a data center hub to support peak electricity demand of 1,400 megawatts and is in talks with five to six potential data center customers.
RATCH.BK · Capital · Neutral Major shareholder Prateep Tangmatitham cut his RATCH stake to 0.87%, his lowest in six years, while Tisco Securities maintains a hold with a 37.00 baht fair value.
RATCH.BK · Demand · Positive RATCH is studying a data center hub to serve 1,400 MW of peak demand and is in talks with five to six potential data center customers.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Neutral Tisco Securities is cited only for its hold rating and 37.00 baht fair value on RATCH, not as a subject of the story.
TISCO Says Era of Capital Competition Will Keep Interest Rates High Through 2028
The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, assesses that global financial markets are entering a phase of capital competition, as governments around the world need to borrow heavily to expand defense budgets while private-sector big tech and hyperscaler firms seek to raise enormous sums to accelerate the buildout of data center infrastructure, chip fabrication plants, AI facilities, and power plants. This is pushing interest rates and government bond yields up by roughly 0.60 to 0.90 percent. Komson Prapakpol, head of the TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, said the United States plans to expand its defense budget from 1 trillion dollars to 1.5 trillion dollars, an increase of 50 percent, while Japan aims to raise defense spending from below 2 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP, the highest level since the period from 1970 to 1980. Germany and France are also accelerating increases in their security budgets. Thanaphat Thanachat, an analyst at TISCO ESU, said the United States has public debt exceeding 100 percent of GDP, or more than 40 trillion dollars, and a fiscal deficit as high as 6 percent of GDP per year, driving its interest burden to double that of four to five years ago. France's public debt has risen by nearly 20 percent of GDP between 2019 and 2025, with an annual deficit of 5 percent of GDP. As for the interest rate path of the three major central banks, TISCO ESU expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one more time, by about 0.25 percent, at its December meeting, ending at 4.25 percent, and to hold at that level through 2027 before cutting in 2028. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates one more time, by about 0.25 percent, in December, while the Bank of Japan is expected to gradually keep raising rates until they reach 1.75 percent in mid-2027. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds is expected in the base case to hold steady at 5 percent through the end of 2026, but if the Federal Reserve fails to control inflation, the worst case could see the bond yield rise to 6 percent.
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▼Capital
TISCO.BK · Monetary · Neutral TISCO ESU forecasts higher-for-longer rates (Fed to 4.25% through 2027), a macro-rate view from the group's research arm rather than a company-specific event.
Phillip Picks TISCO and TU as Top Stocks, Expects 3Q26 Profit to Grow 5.3%
Phillip Securities named TISCO and TU as its top stock picks for September 24, 2026, recommending a buy on both. For TISCO, the research team expects third-quarter 2026 profit of 1.8 billion baht, up 5.3% year on year and 3.3% quarter on quarter. Although interest income will decline due to lower loan rates, reduced interest costs and provisioning, together with expected higher fee income, should support profit. It also expects a 2026 dividend of 7.75 baht per share, a dividend yield of 6%, making it the bank with the highest payout ratio in the sector at 90%. As for TU, second-half earnings are expected to keep expanding, helped by lower average raw shrimp prices that support margins in the frozen food business, while tuna costs are expected to peak in the third quarter of 2026 before declining in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company also benefits fully from the suspension of the United Kingdom's import tax on tuna through 2028. After a strong first-half performance, the company raised its 2026 sales growth target to 4-6% from 3-4% and lifted its full-year gross margin target to 19.5-20.5% from 19.0-20.0%, especially for premium pet food and ready-to-eat seafood products that can pass on costs efficiently.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive Phillip Securities names TISCO a top pick, forecasting 3Q26 profit up 5.3% YoY and a 6% dividend yield with the sector's highest 90% payout ratio.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive Phillip Securities names TU a top pick, expecting H2 earnings growth and noting it raised its 2026 sales growth and gross margin targets.
TU.BK · Tariff · Positive TU benefits fully from the suspension of the United Kingdom's import tax on tuna through 2028.
Bualuang: loans at 7 banks flat MoM at end-August, up 3.4% YoY
Bualuang Securities reported that the combined loans of the seven banks it tracks stood at 10.9 trillion baht at the end of August, flat month-on-month and up 3.4% year-on-year. The increase was led by KTB, up 0.3% on government-sector lending; TISCO, up 0.3% on business and SME loans; TTB, up 0.2%; and KBANK, up 0.2% on business loans. Meanwhile, BBL fell 0.7%, KKP dropped 0.6%, and SCB slipped 0.1%. Total deposits rose 0.5% to 13.2 trillion baht, led by TISCO, TTB, and KTB. Combined loans at the end of September are expected to remain flat as banks stay strict on loan approvals amid a slowing economy, though full-year 2026 loans could come in about 1–2% above the previous assumption, with KBANK, KKP, and KTB likely to exceed estimates by 1–2%, while TTB faces a similar degree of downside risk. On earnings for July–August, TTB and TISCO look set to stand out year-on-year, with TTB up 11%, TISCO up 9%, KBANK up 7%, KKP up 6%, and KTB up 2%, while SCB was flat and BBL fell 19%. Bualuang Securities maintained an equal-weight stance on the banking sector, seeing early signs of improvement in loans and the potential for clearer momentum in the fourth quarter of 2026.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative BBL's loans fell 0.7% MoM and July-August earnings dropped 19% YoY, the weakest among the tracked banks.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive KBANK's loans rose 0.2% on business loans, July-August earnings up 7%, and full-year 2026 loans likely to exceed estimates by 1-2%.
KKP.BK · Capital · Neutral KKP's loans dropped 0.6% MoM but July-August earnings rose 6% and 2026 loans may exceed estimates by 1-2%.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive KTB led loan growth at 0.3% on government-sector lending, deposits rose, and 2026 loans likely to exceed estimates by 1-2%.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB's loans slipped 0.1% MoM and July-August earnings were flat, lagging peers.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO's loans rose 0.3% on business and SME loans, deposits led the increase, and July-August earnings are set to rise 9% YoY.
Asia Plus recommends accumulating KTB, followed by KBANK and BBL, to capture volatile bank share prices
Asia Plus Securities recommends that investors use the volatility in share prices driven by fund flows to accumulate commercial banks with strong balance sheets, giving top weighting to KTB, followed by KBANK and BBL, which is a catch-up play at a PBV of only 0.6 times versus the sector average of 1.2 times. Global bank stocks declined, with the MSCI ACWI Banks index falling 1.2% day-on-day compared with the MSCI ACWI, which rose 0.1% day-on-day, after US commercial banks declined, led by WFC, JPM and BAC, on concerns over a bear-flattening yield curve after 2-year US Treasuries rose faster than 10-year notes, following the Fed's higher-for-longer signal. The research team notes that the structure of Thai commercial banks differs from that of the US, with Thai bond yields of 2 to 10 years rising by an average of only 14 basis points quarter-to-date from the end of the second quarter of 2026, while US yields rose by an average of 53 basis points, because Thai banks' funding comes about 87% from deposits and about 9% from the interbank market, which is mainly tied to the policy rate, while bonds linked to bond yields account for only 4%, unlike JPM, where non-deposit interest-bearing liabilities account for about 36% and deposits about 64%. On valuation, Thai bank stocks have an average PBV of 1.2 times, or 1 time excluding TISCO, compared with an average of 1.6 times for major overseas banks, while the sector's average dividend yield is 5.4% versus 4.4% for major overseas banks. The research team maintains its view that net interest income for large banks is likely to gradually recover quarter-on-quarter from the third quarter of 2026, in line with Thailand's stabilizing interest rate cycle, and recommends a barbell strategy, with the other side being tourism-related stocks expected to offer upside, namely CENTEL, AOT and ERW, on sentiment ahead of the tourism season.
FTSE Upgrades Vietnamese Stocks to Emerging Market, Expected Inflows of 6 Billion Dollars
FTSE Russell officially announced the upgrade of the Vietnamese stock market from Frontier Market to Secondary Emerging Market on September 21, 2026, after Vietnam continued to push forward with capital market reforms, including easing pre-funding restrictions and improving market access for foreign institutional investors. This upgrade brings Vietnamese stocks into FTSE Russell's global indices such as the FTSE Emerging and FTSE All-World. FTSE Russell will gradually increase the weight of Vietnamese stocks in the indices through 2027, with 10% in September 2026, 20% in March 2027, and 35% in June 2027 and September 2027 respectively. Reuters estimates that the upgrade of Vietnam's market status could attract as much as approximately 6 billion US dollars into the market. Meanwhile, during September 14-18, 2026, foreign investors returned as net buyers of Vietnamese stocks to the tune of about 104 million US dollars, even though the overall picture since the start of the year remains net selling. The next goal is an upgrade to the MSCI Emerging Market index, for which Vietnam still needs further reforms, particularly regarding restrictions on the Foreign Ownership Limit and Free Float. Tisco Securities sees entry into the FTSE Emerging Market as the beginning of structural fund flows, and in the short term index funds investing in Vietnamese stocks are likely to benefit directly, especially the stocks that FTSE Russell preliminarily announced would be added to the FTSE Emerging Index, namely VCB, VIC, VHM, BID and VPB. Among the funds recommended by Tisco Securities is the Principal Vietnam Equity Accumulation Fund, PRINCIPAL VNEI-A.
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) · Demand · Positive VCB named among stocks FTSE Russell preliminarily announced would be added to the FTSE Emerging Index, driving index-fund buying
VPBank · Demand · Positive VPB named among stocks FTSE Russell preliminarily announced would be added to the FTSE Emerging Index, driving index-fund buying
TISCO.BK · Demand · Positive Tisco Securities expects structural fund flows and recommends Vietnam equity funds, boosting demand for its brokerage/asset-management services
TISCO raises Thailand's 2026 GDP forecast to 2.1%, warns of slowdown to 2% in 2027
TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, has raised its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2026 to 2.1% from 1.8%. Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic analysis, said the main drivers come from the AI investment cycle and continued expansion of global demand for electronics. However, TISCO ESU expects Thailand's economy to slow to 2.0% in 2027, pressured by the cost of living, energy prices holding at high levels, and cost-of-living support measures gradually coming to an end. It estimates Thailand will run a current account deficit of about 3% of GDP this year, and expects the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the policy rate at 1.00% at least until mid-2027, which could weaken the baht to 34.50 baht per US dollar by the end of this year, while inflation may return above 4% in the final quarter of the year. TISCO ESU also warned that Thailand must accelerate structural reforms to cope with Japanification, a risk it says is greater for Thailand than it was for Japan, because Thailand's per capita income is nearly half that of Japan before it entered its lost decades. The hybrid and electric vehicle industry accounts for only 1.7% of the manufacturing sector, while traditional industries make up more than three-quarters of industrial manufacturing.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO ESU raises Thailand's 2026 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 1.8%, a positive revision from the firm's own research unit.
USDTHB.FOREX · Monetary · Positive TISCO expects the MPC to hold the policy rate at 1.00% until mid-2027 and the baht to weaken to 34.50 per USD, signaling a weaker THB.
Anutin Leads Roadshow to Tokyo, New York and London, Touting Thai Stocks as Foreign Capital Flows In for First Time in 4 Years
Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is leading a delegation to Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom from September 20 to 27, 2026, to roadshow and build confidence among foreign investors. Joining the delegation are Asadej Kongsiri, director and manager of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, and Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chief executive officer of Tisco Securities, in his capacity as chairman of the Thai Capital Market Business Council. Paiboon said this year marks the first time in four years that foreign capital flows into the Thai stock market have been net positive, after a wait of 15 years, with Thailand the only country in Asia seeing foreign inflows. As a result, the Thai stock index has risen nearly 30%, while global markets are up around 11 to 12%, outperforming regional peers such as Vietnam and Indonesia. Foreign investment applications to the Board of Investment this year are at a record high, and the earnings of Thai listed companies in the first half of 2026 grew more than 20%. Asadej said that on the New York leg of the trip, the prime minister will meet a total of 30 US investors, following the Thailand Team meeting in Tokyo on September 21, 2026, to discuss ways to attract foreign capital and partners and to push investment in new industries through programmes such as BOI to IPO. Government spokesman Ekapop Pienpiset said the roadshow, held in parallel with the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, aims to build confidence in Thailand's economic growth potential. Most recently, all three major credit rating agencies revised their outlook on Thailand's credit rating to stable.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive Tisco Securities CEO Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn joins the PM's roadshow as Thai Capital Market Business Council chairman, promoting Thai stocks amid record foreign inflows and 20%+ H1 earnings growth.
Fitch Upgrades Thailand's Outlook to Stable, Bank Stocks Rise Across the Board
Fitch Ratings has revised Thailand's credit rating outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, an investment grade level. As a result, bank stocks rose across the board at 3:00 p.m., led by KBANK up 2.77% to 260.00 baht on trading value of 3.83 billion baht, followed by BAY up 2.61% to 39.25 baht, SCB up 2.30% to 156.00 baht, CREDIT up 1.32% to 23.00 baht, BBL up 1.29% to 196.00 baht, KTB up 1.11% to 45.50 baht, and TISCO up 0.39% to 128.00 baht. TISCO Securities noted four main reasons behind the outlook upgrade: reduced political risk following the election and the formation of a stable government, continuity of economic policy, an improving public debt outlook expected to hold below 63% of GDP in fiscal year 2028, better-than-expected GDP growth driven by investment in AI and data centers, and a strong external position supported by expectations of a return to a current account surplus of 1.5% next year. Based on a study of market movements after Moody's last upgraded Thailand's outlook on April 21 this year, bank stocks delivered positive returns and outperformed the SET across all timeframes, with SETBANK at +1.16%, +1.22%, +4.56%, and +28.56% versus the SET at -0.11%, +0.56%, +3.43%, and +11.55% respectively. The recommended strategic stocks are KBANK with a base target of 290 baht, KTB at 50 baht, and TTB at 3.3 baht. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Thai government bonds fell from 2.38% to 2.26%, a decline of 12 basis points, which is positive for interest-rate-sensitive stocks. Preferred picks are MTC at 55 baht, TIDLOR at 25 baht, and power plant stocks such as GULF at 82 baht and EGCO at 144 baht.
BAY.BK · Monetary · Positive BAY rose 2.61% as Fitch upgraded Thailand's outlook to Stable and 10-year bond yields fell 12bp, positive for rate-sensitive bank stocks.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive BBL rose 1.29% amid the sovereign outlook upgrade and falling Thai government bond yields benefiting banks.
CREDIT.BK · Monetary · Positive CREDIT gained 1.32% as the Fitch outlook upgrade and lower bond yields lifted Thai bank stocks broadly.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Positive Fitch upgraded Thailand's outlook to Stable and KBANK rose 2.77%, with the bank named as a recommended strategic stock with a 290 baht target.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Positive Fitch outlook upgrade lifted Thai bank stocks and KTB is a recommended strategic pick with a 50 baht target.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Positive SCB rose 2.30% as Thai bank stocks gained across the board after Fitch revised Thailand's outlook to Stable.
Brokers still see TISCO growing, but shares trade above 10-year average
Brokers still expect TISCO to keep growing, though the current share price trades above its 10-year average. Pi Securities maintained a "Hold" rating and raised its base valuation to 125 baht, applying a 2027 base value calculated using the GGM method at 16% ROE and 2% TG, based on 2.2x PBV'27E. On operations, it expects net profit in 3Q26 at 1.761 billion baht, up 1.8% year-on-year but down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, and expects the NPL ratio to hold steady at 2.1%. The research house kept its forecast for 2026 net profit growth of about 5%, continuing at 3% in 2027, and expects a dividend yield of 6.2% in 2027. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities maintained a REDUCE rating and kept its TP27F at 115 baht, as it views the stock's 13% rise year-to-date as trading at a forward PBV of 2.4x, or plus two standard deviations, already reflecting the strength of its dividend maintenance at an annual dividend yield of 6.2%. It expects 3Q26F net profit at 1.78 billion baht, up 3% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher NIM on total loans and service fee income, and by the absence of a large special provision like in 3Q25, while the NPL ratio stands at 2.12%, unchanged from 2Q26.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Neutral Brokers diverge: Pi keeps Hold and raises base valuation to 125 baht, while Krungsri keeps REDUCE with 115 baht TP, citing the stock trading above its 10-year average at 2.4x forward PBV.
TISCO recommends adding global bonds and Value stocks, trimming Growth stocks to weather the oil surge
Nattakrit Laothawisap, Head of Wealth Advisory at TISCO Bank, said that for the remainder of the year the stock market will come under pressure from oil prices expected to stay elevated amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, pushing inflation higher, and central banks are expected to raise interest rates, including Europe and Japan. Most recently, the US Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise rates by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00%, and is likely to raise them again in December 2026 to 4.00-4.25%. This marks the first return to policy rate hikes since 2023, pushing the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds to a 20-year high of 5%, while the real yield stands above 2.6%, the highest in 18 years. TISCO Wealth Advisory therefore recommends three portfolio adjustments: increase the weighting of global bonds, maintain the weighting of energy stocks that benefit from tight supply, and reduce the weighting of growth stocks whose P/E is higher than the market, shifting instead to quality Value stocks with reasonable prices, strong earnings and high cash flow, such as financials, healthcare and industrials. It pointed to the lesson of the rising interest rate cycle in 2022, when the P/E of the MSCI ACWI Growth index fell by about 30%, while the P/E of MSCI ACWI Value fell by about 20%.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Fed unanimously raised rates 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% and is likely to hike again in December 2026, pushing the effective federal funds rate higher.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Rate hikes and inflation expectations pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to a 20-year high of 5%.
TISCO.BK · Monetary · Neutral TISCO's wealth advisory recommends portfolio shifts (global bonds, energy, value over growth) amid expected rate hikes and elevated oil, but this is house-view guidance rather than a direct hit to TISCO's own earnings.
KSS flags safe-haven stocks as Fed rate hike lifts banks, insurers and hospitals on high bond yields
Analysts at Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assess that this meeting of the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise the policy rate by 0.25% in what is being called an Insurance Rate Hike, a pre-emptive move. The market has already priced in about 92% odds of a hike this round, so the bigger driver for the market is the direction of the Dot Plot, along with inflation projections and the number of remaining rate increases ahead. KSS believes that if the Fed signals a pause to assess more economic and inflation data, the stock market could see a short-term rebound, or Relief Rally, with domestic and defensive stocks drawing more attention, especially hospitals such as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, or BDMS, and Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH. If instead the Fed signals continued rate hikes beyond market expectations, that would pressure stocks with high valuations that are sensitive to bond yields, such as Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA. Meanwhile, Phillip Securities (Thailand), or PST, assesses that the Thai stock market is likely to move sideways down in the short term on investors reducing risk ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the 2-year bond yield rising to 4.69% while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.04%, the highest levels since 2024 and 2007 respectively. As for Thai stocks that benefit from interest rates holding at a high level, the research team names the banking group: TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, Kasikornbank, or KBANK, SCB X, or SCB, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. In the insurance group: Bangkok Life Assurance, or BLA, Thai Life Insurance, or TLI, and Dhipaya Group Holdings, or TIPH.
TISCO Bank launches title-deed cash loan with interest starting at 0.55% per month
TISCO Bank Public Company Limited has launched two new loan products: a title-deed cash loan for retail customers and a title-deed cash loan for SME businesses, under the concepts "Have property = Have capital" and "Unlock every need for cash." Customers bring land and real estate to convert into working capital within the system, in order to boost liquidity, reduce the burden of high-interest debt, and support business expansion. Mr. Sommai Sae-Ung, Senior Executive Vice President of the Retail Credit Strategy and Business Development Division at TISCO Bank, said that the challenging economic conditions and high cost of living have left many people and entrepreneurs short of liquidity, and some have turned to informal loans or property sale-with-right-of-redemption arrangements, which raise financial costs and risk the long-term loss of their assets. For the title-deed cash loan for retail customers, the interest rate is fixed at a starting rate of just 0.55% per month, equivalent to an effective annual interest rate of 11.85% per year. For the title-deed cash loan for SME businesses, interest is charged on a reducing-balance basis, starting with reference to TISCO Bank's MLR, which as of September 4, 2026 stood at 7.35% per year.
TISCO.BK · Demand · Positive TISCO Bank launches two new title-deed cash loan products for retail and SME customers, expanding its lending offerings to capture demand for liquidity.
DELTA falls 6% after DEISG prepares to issue $1.5 billion exchangeable bonds
DELTA shares fell 5.95% to 237.00 baht on trading value of 11.6 billion baht after Tisco Securities reported that Delta Electronics Int'l (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., or DEISG, a wholly owned Singapore subsidiary of Delta Taiwan, is preparing to issue zero-coupon exchangeable bonds worth a total of $1.5 billion, with the DELTA shares it holds, a 42.85% stake, as the reference shares. The bonds are split into two tranches. The first, worth $500 million, matures on September 21, 2027, with an exchange price set at 266.80 baht per share. The second, worth $1 billion, matures on September 21, 2031, with an exchange price set at 301.60 baht per share. That represents premiums of 15% and 30% respectively over the reference price of 232 baht per share. The transaction involves no new share issuance, so it does not affect existing shareholders, and if the exchange rights are fully exercised it would amount to roughly 172.1 million DELTA shares, or 1.38% of total paid-up shares. Tisco sees the deal potentially pressuring the share price in the short term through investors' hedging activity, as well as an overhang from shares that could be exchanged in the future, which may cap gains around 267 to 302 baht. It therefore maintains a hold rating with a fair value of 268 baht. Meanwhile, KGI Securities (Thailand) maintains a buy rating and has raised its end-2027 target price to 320 baht from 290 baht, while lifting its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 2% to 6%.
DELTA.BK · Capital · Negative DEISG's $1.5B zero-coupon exchangeable bond issue on its 42.85% DELTA stake creates hedging pressure and a share overhang, capping gains near 267-302 baht.
KGI.BK · Capital · Positive KGI maintains a buy rating and raised its end-2027 target price to 320 baht from 290 baht while lifting 2026-2027 profit forecasts.
2308.TW · Capital · Negative Its wholly owned Singapore subsidiary DEISG is issuing $1.5B exchangeable bonds on DELTA shares, pressuring the underlying stock.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Neutral Tisco Securities reported the DEISG bond deal and maintains a hold rating with a 268 baht fair value on DELTA.
Dao expects TISCO Q3/69E profit of 1,766 million baht, NIM supports 2% growth
Dao Securities estimates the third-quarter 2569 net profit of TISCO Financial Group Public Company Limited, or TISCO, at 1,766 million baht, up 2% year on year but flat quarter on quarter. The year-on-year increase comes from a return to provisioning within the target framework, with credit cost at 102bps, close to the guided range of 100-110bps, and NIM at 5.02%, up from 4.88% in the third quarter of 2568, benefiting from falling interest rates. Cost of funds is expected to bottom out in the third quarter of 2569. Profit was flat quarter on quarter because almost all line items were unchanged. Total loans rose 2.8% year on year and 0.5% quarter on quarter, or 0.4% year-to-date, driven by large corporate loans. SME loans were flat, while retail loans declined. NPLs are expected at 2.08%, down from 2.12% in the previous quarter, on improved borrower quality following a reduction in high-yield lending, as well as a larger loan base. The research team maintains its 2569 net profit forecast at 6.9 billion baht, up 4% year on year, on higher NIM from the benefit of falling interest rates. It keeps its hold rating on TISCO and a target price of 125.00 baht, based on 2569E PBV of 2.25x, which is 2.25 standard deviations above the 10-year average, with a dividend yield of about 6%.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive Dao estimates TISCO's Q3/2569 net profit at 1,766 million baht, up 2% YoY, and maintains its 2569 profit forecast and hold rating with a 125.00 baht target price.
Dao Securities Expects TISCO Q3 Profit at 1.766 Billion Baht, NPLs Down to 2.08%
Dao Securities estimates TISCO's net profit for the third quarter of 2026 at 1.766 billion baht, up 2% year-on-year but flat quarter-on-quarter. The year-on-year increase comes from a return to provisioning within the target framework, with credit cost at 102 basis points, close to the guidance of 100-110 basis points. Meanwhile, net interest margin stands at 5.02%, up from 4.88% in the third quarter of 2025, benefiting from falling interest rates, and the cost of funds is expected to bottom out in the third quarter of 2026. The flat quarter-on-quarter profit is due to nearly all items holding steady. Total loans rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, or 0.4% year-to-date, driven by large corporate loans. SME loans remained flat, while retail loans declined. Non-performing loans will be at 2.08%, down from 2.12% in the previous quarter, due to improved borrower quality from reduced high-yield lending and a larger loan base. The brokerage maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 6.9 billion baht, up 4% year-on-year, on higher net interest margin from falling interest rates. It also keeps its 'Hold' rating on TISCO with a target price of 125.00 baht, based on a 2026 estimated price-to-book value of 2.25 times, which is 2.25 standard deviations above the 10-year average, while offering a high dividend yield.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive Dao Securities estimates TISCO's Q3 2026 net profit at 1.766 billion baht, up 2% year-on-year, and maintains its 2026 profit forecast and Hold rating with a 125.00 baht target price.
Tisco raises KTB profit forecasts for 2026-2028 by 6-8%, new target price 50 baht
Analysts at Tisco Securities have raised their profit forecasts for Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, for 2026-2028 by 6-8% and set a new fundamental target price of 50 baht, while maintaining a "Buy" recommendation. They view KTB as the standout stock in the banking sector in the second half of 2026, driven by strong and sustained profit momentum supported by growth in government-sector lending, fee income, and the potential to recognise gains from the revaluation of THAI shares. KTB also offers an attractive dividend yield of 6-7% per year.
Phillip Picks KBANK for Outstanding Dividends in 2026, Expected to Pay 15 Baht
Phillip Securities (Thailand) forecasts dividend payments for commercial bank stocks in the second half of the year, along with full-year 2026 dividend estimates. It notes that most banks have already announced interim dividends for the first half, except for KTB, which has yet to announce. BBL, KBANK, SCB, and TISCO paid the same as last year at 2 baht per share, while BAY, KKP, TCAP, and TTB paid higher than the previous year. The research department projects full-year dividends for each bank, with KBANK standing out the most, expected to pay 13.00 baht per share in the second half, bringing the full-year total to 15.00 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 6.0%. Meanwhile, SCB is expected to pay 10.66 baht per share for the full year, with a dividend yield of 7.0%, and TISCO is expected to pay 7.75 baht per share, with a dividend yield of 6.1%. The research department maintains a market-weight rating on the banking group. Although NPLs may increase, loan growth remains, and stable interest rates help improve net interest margins. It selects KBANK as the top pick, recommending gradual accumulation with a fundamental price of 261 baht, given expectations of the highest dividend payout in the group and the possibility of additional special dividends.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive Phillip forecasts KBANK to pay highest dividend of 15 baht/share with 6.0% yield, top pick with fundamental price of 261 baht.
SCB.BK · Capital · Positive SCB expected to pay 10.66 baht/share full-year dividend with 7.0% yield, mentioned as strong dividend payer.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO expected to pay 7.75 baht/share with 6.1% yield, noted for stable dividend.
7 Banks to Pay Dividends in September 2026, KKP Highest at 3.25 Baht
Seven banks and financial institutions have announced dividend payments for September 2026, with KKP paying the highest at 3.25 baht per share. Meanwhile, TISCO, SCBX, BBL, and KBANK will pay 2.00 baht per share, TTB will pay 0.081 baht, and BAY will pay 0.60 baht. The ex-dividend (XD) dates are set between September 7-9, with dividend payments scheduled between September 21-25, 2026.
TTB-DBS Deal Shifts Banking Competition to Wealthy Clients
The partnership between TTB and DBS may signal that competition in the banking business is shifting from loans to capturing wealthy client bases. Analysts from four brokerage houses—KSS, TISCO, KS, and KTX—view the deal positively. Although the short-term impact on profits may be limited, they see long-term strategic value. KSS notes that acquiring DBSVT's client base will help expand wealth management business. TISCO believes TTB already has a securities platform after acquiring Thanachart, so it won't need to invest in new infrastructure. KS estimates DBS's AUM in Thailand could be around 20 billion baht. KTX views this as a capital-light business expansion that reduces M&A risks. DBSVT had total revenue of 630.7 million baht in 2025 but employee expenses as high as 442.2 million baht, nearly 70% of total revenue. TTB aims to increase AUM from about 71.5 billion baht at the end of 2025 to 75 billion baht in 2026, and toward 90 billion baht by 2028. This reflects that the bank's future doesn't depend solely on loan size; fee income from wealth management is playing an increasingly important role in growth.
TTB.BK · Demand · Positive TTB's partnership with DBS to acquire DBSVT's wealthy client base expands its wealth management AUM toward 90 billion baht by 2028.
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. · Demand · Positive DBSVT's client base and ~20 billion baht AUM in Thailand are being acquired by TTB, driving the wealth management expansion.
TISCO.BK · Competition · Positive TISCO views the TTB-DBS deal positively, noting TTB already has a securities platform so it won't need new infrastructure investment.
Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited · Competition · Positive KSS views the TTB-DBS deal positively, seeing the acquisition of DBSVT's client base as helping expand wealth management business.
Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited · Competition · Positive KTX views the deal as a capital-light business expansion that reduces M&A risks.
Banks Queue Up to Pay Interim Dividends: KKP Leads at 3.25 Baht, KBANK-SCB-TISCO Pay 2 Baht
Commercial banks are gradually announcing interim dividend payments after reporting their first-half 2026 results. Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP) pays the highest at 3.25 baht per share, while Kasikornbank (KBANK), SCB X (SCB), and TISCO Financial Group (TISCO) pay 2.00 baht per share. Most have set the XD date in early September. Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) pays 0.60 baht per share, TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) pays 0.081 baht per share, CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT) pays 0.0385 baht per share, and LH Financial Group (LHFG) pays 0.02 baht per share. Meanwhile, KTB, CREDIT, and TCAP have not yet announced interim dividends for the first half. KTB is still awaiting a board meeting, while CREDIT and TCAP have already paid dividends from their 2025 performance.
IVL continues to rise 4% on bets Venezuela will exit OPEC, unlocking production capacity
Shares of Indorama Ventures, or IVL, rose 3.56% to 23.30 baht after reports that Venezuela is considering withdrawing from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, which could increase oil production flexibility and reduce the company's raw material costs. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities views this as a supportive factor for investment sentiment and expects normal profit in the second half of 2026 to grow from the same period a year earlier. On the other hand, Tisco Securities has raised its profit estimates for 2026-2028 by 54%, 19%, and 3%, respectively, while maintaining a Buy recommendation and a target price of 30 baht. KSS has set a 2027 target price of 28 baht.
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