ASL expects 9 banks' Q3 2026 profit at 64,921 million baht, flat from previous quarter

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Summary · why it matters

ASL Securities estimates the combined net profit of nine commercial banks in the third quarter of 2026 at 64,921 million baht, flat from the previous quarter, up 0.4% but down 9.8% from the same period a year earlier, pressured by lower net interest income amid a narrower net interest margin, together with limited loan growth and slowing non-interest income, especially gains from investments and securities trading. However, financial costs that have begun to decline in line with deposit rate adjustments and gradually easing credit risk costs will help support earnings. ASL expects the banking group's combined net profit for the first nine months of 2026 to come in at 196,520 million baht, down 4% from the same period a year earlier. For mid-sized and small banks, ASL sees KKP and CREDIT as likely standouts. KKP is expected to post third-quarter 2026 net profit of 2,100 million baht, down 1% from the previous quarter but up 26% from the same period a year earlier, the highest in the group by year-on-year growth. CREDIT is expected to post net profit of 1,160 million baht, up 17% from the previous quarter and 14% from the same period a year earlier, the highest quarter-on-quarter growth in the group. TISCO is expected to post profit growth of 1% quarter on quarter and 3% year on year. Among large banks, KTB and BBL are expected to see profit recover from the previous quarter by 5% and 7% respectively, while KBANK and SCB still face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income. For the fourth-quarter 2026 outlook, ASL expects the banking group's profit to slow from the previous quarter due to a seasonal rise in operating expenses and asset-quality risks, particularly the impact of flooding on retail loans, small and medium-sized enterprise business and hire-purchase loans, which may force some banks to set aside additional provisions through management overlays.

Impact on assets 7

Financials± Mixed
Thai Credit Pcl
CREDIT
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

ASL expects CREDIT to post Q3 2026 net profit up 17% q/q and 14% y/y, the highest quarter-on-quarter growth in the group.

Digital Finance & Tokenization± Mixed
SCB X Public Company Limited
SCB
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

ASL expects SCB to still face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income in Q3 2026.

Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

ASL expects BBL's Q3 2026 profit to recover 7% from the previous quarter, the strongest rebound among large banks.