SCB X Public Company Limited operates in banking, consumer and digital finance, and platform and technology businesses in Thailand and internationally. It serves corporate, SME, retail, and other customers through four segments: Corporate, SME, Retail, and Others. Its services include commercial banking, digital lending platforms such as FINNIX and Money Thunder, investment platforms like InnovestX, and technology ventures including SCB 10X and Token X. Founded in 1906 and headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company also provides insurance brokerage, debt collection, asset management, and related financial services.
Why is SCB X Public Company Limited (SCB.BK) moving?
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SCB's profit squeeze deepens as floods and weak margins offset dividend appeal
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Q3 profit seen falling on thinner lending margin Brokers expect SCB's third-quarter profit around 10.8-11.5 billion baht, down roughly 5-10% from a year ago, because interest income shrank after past rate cuts and the margin on loans narrowed. Weaker profit is the main drag on the share price.
This is the core new earnings picture for the period and directly explains downward pressure on SCB.BK.
Floods hit borrowers and add bad-debt risk SCB's research arm says the floods cut Thai growth by up to 0.25 points and hit over a million households and many SMEs. Banks are letting flood-hit customers delay repayments, which trims interest income now and raises the risk some loans go bad later.
Flood damage is a fresh, concrete force weighing on SCB's earnings and asset quality.
Dividend appeal keeps income investors interested SCB pays a 2 baht interim dividend and brokers see a full-year yield near 7%, among the highest in Thai banking. CLSA and Yuanta also name SCB a top pick. Steady payouts put a floor under the stock even while profit falls.
Dividend strength is the main counterweight supporting SCB.BK against the weak earnings trend.
New fee and technology businesses broaden income SCB launched its own AI document analyst CORA, added travel insurance and a savings-insurance product on its app, and expanded card acceptance with American Express. These add fee income and customer ties without lending risk, a slow but real growth stream.
These new non-lending businesses show where SCB's future income growth comes from beyond squeezed interest margins.
SCB EIC estimates floods affect 1.48 million households, shaving 0.1% off Thailand's economy
The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB EIC, estimates that flooding between September 16 and October 7, 2026, affected more than 1.48 million Thai households, or roughly 6% of all households, with more than 1.1 million households still affected at present. The hardest-hit areas are Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, such as Samut Prakan and Pathum Thani, as well as provinces that serve as key agricultural and industrial production bases in the central and eastern regions, including Nakhon Nayok, Chonburi, Chachoengsao, Prachinburi and Ayutthaya. On the labor front, more than 1.69 million workers are expected to be affected, particularly in Samut Prakan and Bangkok, where 445,000 and 420,000 workers respectively have been hit, or about 2% of the country's total workforce. The most vulnerable groups are service-sector workers and informal workers who earn daily wages. As for the economic impact, SCB EIC expects the floods to reduce Thailand's economy by 0.05% to 0.1% this year in its base case, but if the situation is more severe than expected because of a new round of rain and stronger-than-anticipated northern runoff, the impact could rise to 0.1% to 0.2%, and could increase to 0.15% to 0.25% if flooding again occurs in urban areas inside Bangkok's flood barriers. That is still less than the great flood of 2001, which hit Thailand's economy by as much as 3.5% to 4%. The risk from this round of flooding lies in the added strain on households and small and medium-sized enterprises with limited liquidity.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB EIC estimates floods will shave 0.05%-0.1% off Thailand's economy, straining households and SMEs with limited liquidity, which raises credit risk for Siam Commercial Bank.
SCB FM expects baht to trade in 33.25-33.85 range by year-end, eyes US election and Fed rates
Patrick Poullie, Head of Financial Markets at Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB, said the bank estimates the baht will move within a range of 33.25 to 33.85 per US dollar for the remainder of this year, noting that external factors, especially the war in the Middle East and the direction of global interest rates, remain the main pressures, causing the baht to swing with crude oil prices and the strengthening of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve signalled continued tight monetary policy to curb inflation. In the short term, the baht may weaken on periodic war concerns and the US election in November, as well as the risk that the US may raise tariffs on imports from Thailand under Section 301. However, a sharp spike in oil prices is less likely, and Thailand's trade balance tends to improve late in the year, supported by August export figures that grew faster than expected. For the outlook in 2027, SCB estimates the baht will weaken again, reaching 33.80 per US dollar in the first quarter and possibly approaching 34.50 per US dollar in the third quarter before gradually strengthening slightly late in the year, given US government bond yields that are likely to hold at high levels and a Thai economy still recovering unevenly, or in a K-shaped recovery, relying mainly on electronics exports and the US market, while domestic consumption and the labour market recover slowly. These factors will likely lead the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the policy rate at 1.0%, keeping the interest rate differential between Thailand and other countries a pressure on the baht. Nevertheless, factors that could reverse and support the baht next year include the chance that the Fed may raise rates only once, fewer than the market's expectation of three times, as well as the risk that the US government may face a temporary shutdown and that the war situation may ease until oil prices return to normal levels. Wachiravat Banchuen, a senior financial markets strategist at SCB, added that long-term US government bond yields have surged to their highest in more than two decades, driven by high fiscal deficits, a wave of corporate bond issuance, especially by large technology companies raising funds for AI, and inflation concerns from the war. He estimates the yield curve will tend to steepen, with two-year bond yields possibly declining gradually to 4.15-4.35% by late 2027 in line with a slowing US economy, while 10-year bond yields will fall only limitedly and remain high at 4.70-4.90%. For the US presidential election, the base case assumes the Democratic Party will win a majority in at least one chamber, which would check the government's power and make new fiscal stimulus harder, reducing government spending and possibly helping push long-term bond yields somewhat lower. The probability of a Democrat Sweep is put at 55%, and the case of Democrats taking the lower house while Republicans hold the Senate at 35%. However, if a Republican Sweep occurs, with a probability of about 10%, it would be an upside risk that drives government bond yields and the dollar sharply higher on concerns over rising fiscal deficits. In addition, the euro has faced heavy selling pressure recently from high energy prices and political uncertainty, especially in France, where investors worry about a change of government next year that could affect public debt and the budget deficit. If the far-right or far-left wins the election, it would widen the spread between French and German bond yields and drag the euro lower, but if centrist parties retain power, it would reduce political risk and help the euro recover somewhat amid lingering fiscal challenges.
USDTHB.FOREX · Monetary · Positive SCB expects the baht to weaken toward 33.25-33.85/USD on Middle East war risk, US election, Section 301 tariff risk, and a wide US-Thailand rate differential.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Neutral SCB's financial markets head gives baht forecasts; the bank is the source of the outlook, not a subject of a company-specific development.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Article notes the Fed signalled continued tight monetary policy to curb inflation, implying the effective fed funds rate stays high.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive US government bond yields are expected to hold at high levels, keeping the 10Y yield elevated.
SCB WEALTH Partners with INVX to Connect Investment Portfolios to Wealth System, Starting October 1, 2026
SCB WEALTH, Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited, or SCB, has announced a partnership with InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or INVX, to link investment portfolios into Siam Commercial Bank's wealth ecosystem, giving customers greater access to status, services, and privileges suited to their level of wealth. The arrangement takes effect from October 1, 2026. Ms. Paramashiri Manolomai, Head of Wealth Business at SCB, said the partnership helps customers receive care from personal advisors, along with financial and lifestyle solutions, under the concept Your Success, Our Success. Ms. Ekachai Panyakhamlerd, Chief Executive Officer of INVX, said the partnership reflects the connection of capabilities within the SCBX group, combining InnovestX's strengths in investment platforms with SCB WEALTH's expertise in wealth customer care. In addition, SCB WEALTH is launching two special programs: the Fast Track program, which gives customers the opportunity to upgrade their status to SCB PRIME and SCB FIRST more quickly, and the Up-Tier Program under the concept ELEVATING YOUR WEALTH, REFINING EVERY JOURNEY, for customers with cumulative new investment of 3 million baht or more in participating mutual funds and products while maintaining asset balances under the conditions, who will receive gifts and lifestyle privileges such as limousine airport transfer service and special privileges for international travel.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Digital Wealth & Robo-Advisory Demand
SCB.BK · Demand · Positive SCB WEALTH partners with INVX to link investment portfolios into SCB's wealth ecosystem, expanding customer access to wealth services and privileges.
InnovestX Securities Company Limited · Demand · Positive INVX partners with SCB WEALTH to connect its investment platform into SCB's wealth ecosystem, gaining access to SCB's wealth customers.
7 banks set to report Q3 2026 results; brokers expect profits to plunge 11-15%
Seven commercial banks, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, TTB, KKP and TISCO, are entering the third-quarter 2026 earnings season amid pressure from a falling interest rate cycle. Finansia Syrus Securities, or FSS, estimates the seven banks' combined net profit at 54.98 billion baht, down 0.7% from the previous quarter and down 11.6% from the same period a year earlier. Miss Chitra Amorntham, Deputy Managing Director of the Securities Analysis Department at FSS, said the main pressure comes from the policy rate having been cut three times, or 0.75%, over the past 12 months. Kasikorn Securities, or KS, estimates combined third-quarter net profit at 49.4 billion baht, down 2% from the previous quarter and down 15% from a year earlier. Yuanta Securities estimates it at 54.905 billion baht, down 0.9% from the previous quarter and down 11.7% from a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2026, FSS expects the seven banks to post combined net profit of 167.519 billion baht, down 5.3% from a year earlier, or about 78% of the full-year estimate. KBANK has the highest profit at 40.391 billion baht, up 2.8%, while KKP grew the fastest at 47.6%, with profit of 6.113 billion baht. FSS maintains a market-weight investment rating, picking BBL with a target price of 240 baht and KTB with a target price of 47.30 baht as its top picks. KS maintains a positive view, picking KKP with a target price of 153 baht and KTB with a target price of 48 baht as its top picks. Yuanta Securities noted that the share price correction has pushed the dividend yield of SCB, KKP, KTB and TISCO back above 6% in 2026, with SCB leading the group at 6.9% and a fair value of 160 baht.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Negative BBL is among the seven banks whose Q3 2026 profits are expected to fall 11-15% due to the policy rate being cut three times in the past 12 months.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Negative KBANK is one of the seven banks facing profit pressure from the falling interest rate cycle, though it still has the highest profit at 40.391 billion baht.
KKP.BK · Monetary · Negative KKP is among the seven banks expected to see combined Q3 profits drop 11-15% amid the rate-cut cycle, despite being the fastest grower at 47.6%.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Negative KTB is one of the seven banks whose Q3 2026 profits are forecast to plunge 11-15% due to three policy rate cuts over the past 12 months.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Negative SCB is among the seven banks facing profit declines from the falling interest rate cycle, though its dividend yield has risen above 6%.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Negative TISCO is among the seven banks whose Q3 2026 combined net profit is forecast to fall 11-15% year-on-year due to the policy-rate cuts.
ASL Securities expects Q3/26 earnings for 9 banks to be flat QoQ but down 10% YoY
ASL Securities estimates the combined net profit of nine banks in the third quarter of 2026 at 64.921 billion baht, flat from the previous quarter but down 9.8% from a year earlier, pressured by lower net interest income as net interest margins narrow, alongside still-limited loan growth and slowing non-interest income, particularly investment gains and trading gains. Meanwhile, funding costs are beginning to ease as deposits reprice, and gradually declining credit costs are helping to support results. For the first nine months of 2026, combined net profit is expected to total 196.52 billion baht, down 4% from a year earlier. Mid-sized and smaller banks are likely to show standout growth, with KKP forecast to post net profit of 2.1 billion baht, up 26% YoY, the highest in the group, while CREDIT is expected to report net profit of 1.16 billion baht, up 17% QoQ, the strongest sequential gain in the group. KTB and BBL are expected to see profit recover 5% and 7% QoQ respectively, while KBANK and SCB continue to face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income. For the fourth quarter of 2026, group earnings are expected to slow QoQ on seasonally higher operating expenses and asset-quality risks, particularly the impact of flooding on retail, SME and hire-purchase loans, which may prompt some banks to increase management overlay provisions. On valuation, bank stocks remain attractive, trading at an average 2026 price-to-book value of 1.1 times, with an average dividend yield of 5.5% expected, against an average return on equity of 10.5%. With group net profit forecast to grow 3.8% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, the investment strategy should focus on banks with outstanding earnings growth, strong asset quality and the potential to boost shareholder returns through dividends or capital management, especially banks trading below one times price-to-book value.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB is named among banks continuing to face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income, weighing on Q3/26 earnings.
CREDIT.BK · Capital · Positive CREDIT forecast to post net profit of 1.16 billion baht, up 17% QoQ, the strongest sequential gain in the group.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP forecast to post net profit of 2.1 billion baht, up 26% YoY, the highest growth in the group.
BBL.BK · Capital · Neutral BBL expected to see profit recover 7% QoQ, but group earnings flat QoQ and down ~10% YoY on margin pressure.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Negative KBANK continues to face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income.
KTB.BK · Capital · Neutral KTB expected to see profit recover 5% QoQ, though group earnings are flat QoQ and down YoY.
SCB EIC says property market will recover slowly in 2026-2027, urges operators to tap the second-hand home market
The Economic Intelligence Center of SCB X Public Company Limited, or SCB EIC, reported that the housing market in 2026-2027 is likely to remain flat or expand only slightly, and will continue to recover slowly over the medium term. The main pressures come from still-fragile domestic purchasing power, expenses outpacing income, household debt problems, and tight lending by financial institutions. At the same time, purchasing power among high-end buyers, both Thai and foreign, is also likely to see purchase and investment decisions delayed by economic uncertainty. Nationwide ownership transfers in 2026 are expected to return to slight growth from a low base caused by the earthquake in 2025, a rush to transfer before government measures expired in June 2026, and operators' stock-clearing promotions, before the market returns to flat conditions again in 2027. The second-hand housing market remains highly popular, with ownership transfers tending to grow better than new homes, thanks to more accessible prices and a greater supply of second-hand homes and non-performing assets released into the market, giving buyers options priced at no more than 7 million baht, which meets the criteria for the transfer fee and mortgage fee reduction measures. The accumulated unsold stock in Bangkok and its vicinity has begun to decline in the short term in the condominium and townhouse segments, but over the medium term the loan rejection rate for the segment priced at no more than 5 million baht still bears watching. Meanwhile, the detached house segment remains a concern, with demand below supply and intense competition. SCB EIC therefore recommends that property operators adjust their strategies on five fronts: speed up clearing remaining stock to maintain cash flow; focus on delivering value and reducing reliance on price wars; tap the second-hand home market by shifting the view from competitor to market participant; adjust strategies for foreign markets from a broad approach to narrower targeting of specific groups; and upgrade to become a full-service residential living provider.
SCB.BK · · Neutral SCB EIC, SCB X's research unit, forecasts a slow property market recovery; this is a sector outlook report, not a company-specific development for SCB X.
Yuanta sees Thailand hosting IMF–World Bank meetings as a boost for SET Outperform, names stocks across 4 themes
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) assesses that Thailand's hosting of the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, to be held from 12-18 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, will be a positive factor for the Thai stock market. It marks Thailand's return as host after 35 years, having last hosted in 1991, and more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries are expected. Thailand is presenting the concept "A New Horizon for Thailand: Empowering People, Strengthening Readiness for Change," and will push four main issues: the transition to digital and AI, the role of middle-sized countries in a multipolar world, coping with climate change, and preparing the economy for an aging society. Yuanta's research team cites the case study of Indonesia, which hosted in 2018, finding that the JCI Index rose 2.8% in the one month after the meetings and outperformed MSCI EM, MSCI DM and MSCI ACWI, which delivered negative returns during that period. It therefore sees the SET Index as likely to outperform regional markets. The digital and AI theme is positive for SMT, HANA, CCET, AMATA, WHA, DITTO and SKY, while the middle-sized countries theme, aimed at supporting SMEs, is positive for KBANK, SCB, KTB, SAWAD and MTC. The climate theme is positive for GUNKUL, SSP, GULF, DITTO and TEAMG, and the aging society theme is positive for BDMS, BH, BCH and CHG. It also sees the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers, namely AOT, THAI, BA, ERW, CENTEL, MINT and AWC, with several large concerts choosing to hold events in Thailand during November-December providing continued support.
BDMS.BK · Demand · Positive Named in the aging society theme as a beneficiary of Thailand's IMF-World Bank hosting, which Yuanta sees as positive for the SET.
BH.BK · Demand · Positive Named in the aging society theme as a beneficiary of Thailand's IMF-World Bank hosting, which Yuanta sees as positive for the SET.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Named in the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers around the IMF-World Bank meetings and large concerts.
CHG.BK · Demand · Positive Named in the aging society theme as a beneficiary of Thailand's IMF-World Bank hosting, which Yuanta sees as positive for the SET.
DITTO.BK · Demand · Positive Named in both the digital/AI and climate themes as a beneficiary of Thailand's IMF-World Bank hosting, which Yuanta sees as positive for the SET.
SKY.BK · Demand · Positive Named among stocks benefiting from the digital and AI theme pushed at the IMF–World Bank meetings Thailand will host.
DBS Vickers Securities says bank dividend stocks average 6%, picks KBANK and KTB as top choices
DBS Vickers Securities released an analysis noting that Thai bank stocks remain attractive, expecting the sector's average dividend yield in 2026 to be around 6%, higher than the stock market average of about 3%. It also expects that in 2027 the banks will continue to maintain high dividend payouts because their capital bases remain strong, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of about 17%, above the Bank of Thailand's minimum requirement of 12%. Looking at individual banks, SCB is expected to have the highest dividend yield in the group at 6.7%, followed by KTB and TISCO at 6.3% and KKP at 6.1%, while TTB and KBANK still have additional upside if leftover funds from share buyback programs are used to pay extra dividends. The research team maintains an "overweight" investment rating on the banking sector, selecting KBANK and KTB as top picks, with a target price for KBANK of 270 baht based on its strength in wealth management, and a target price for KTB of 50 baht based on its strong asset quality.
Yuanta says 14th development plan unlocks constraints, lifting five stock groups
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) said the government is drafting the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan for 2028-2032, which will take effect from October 2027, aiming to restructure the Thai economy and reduce constraints that hinder growth, in order to push economic expansion above 3% per year and set a goal for Thailand to rank among the world's top 20 in competitiveness by 2029. The plan is driven through five key areas, covering raising production efficiency and attracting new industries, reforming public administration toward OECD standards, upgrading human capital to support an aging society, turning natural resources and the environment into development capital, and investing in technology and innovation. A key shift from the 13th plan is the move away from designating target industries toward addressing structural constraints, through five pillars: Transform, Reform, Upgrade, Sustain, and Transfer. Yuanta's research team sees industries with a chance to benefit, including AI and data centers, electrical infrastructure, smart grid and smart meter, automated production systems, proactive water management, and digital infrastructure. The five stock groups expected to benefit are power plants, commercial banks, telecommunications, electronics, and construction contractors and building materials. Stocks that stand to gain include GULF, GUNKUL, GPSC, SSP, SCB, KTB, ADVANC, TRUE, SMT, and EPG.
Artificial Intelligence › Build-out, Construction & Engineering ▲Regulation
ADVANC.BK · Regulation · Positive ADVANC is named among the stocks expected to benefit from the 14th National Development Plan's structural reforms and digital infrastructure push.
EPG.BK · Regulation · Positive EPG is explicitly listed among the stocks standing to gain from the 14th plan's focus on technology, innovation, and new industries.
GPSC.BK · Regulation · Positive GPSC is named in the power plant group expected to benefit from the 14th plan's electrical infrastructure and smart grid investments.
GULF.BK · Regulation · Positive GULF is named among the stocks that stand to gain from the 14th plan's power and electrical infrastructure priorities.
GUNKUL.BK · Regulation · Positive GUNKUL is explicitly listed among the stocks expected to benefit from the 14th plan's electrical infrastructure and smart grid focus.
KTB.BK · Regulation · Positive Named among commercial banks expected to benefit from the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan's structural reforms.
SCB CIO raises emerging market equities to Overweight, favoring South Korea and Taiwan as AI beneficiaries
SCB CIO, together with BlackRock, has raised its investment weighting in emerging market or EM equities to Overweight, taking the view that several markets stand to benefit from investment in AI and advanced technology, particularly South Korea and Taiwan, which play a key role in the global technology supply chain and serve as manufacturing bases for chips and electronic components supporting the expansion of AI. Meanwhile, the earnings outlook for companies in these markets remains strong, and valuation levels are not yet stretched relative to developed markets. Investment in EM will focus selectively on companies that benefit from the AI megatrend, the transition to a digital economy, and investment in new-era infrastructure. On the US equity market, SCB CIO maintains a positive view and assigns it a greater weighting than other major markets, supported by AI investment, which is driving a structural transformation of the global economy. For fixed income, yields at elevated levels make income-generating opportunities attractive again, with more than 84% of global bonds offering yields above 4%. The focus is on the middle segment of the yield curve, namely 3-7 year US Treasuries and US government mortgage-backed securities, while remaining Underweight long-dated US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds. It also maintains a Neutral weighting in short-duration high-quality corporate bonds but is Underweight long-duration high-quality corporate bonds.
SCB.BK · Capital · Positive SCB CIO raised its EM equity weighting to Overweight and maintains a positive US equity view, reflecting its investment strategy.
BLK · Capital · Positive BlackRock, together with SCB CIO, raised EM equities to Overweight, a positive investment-stance development for the asset manager.
Stocks to Watch: Banking Group Enters Q3 2026, FSS Expects 7 Banks to Post Combined Profit of 55 Billion Baht
Banking stocks are entering the third-quarter 2026 earnings season amid pressure from a falling interest-rate cycle. FSS estimates that seven stocks, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, TTB, KKP and TISCO, will report combined net profit of 54.98 billion baht, down 0.7% QoQ and down 11.6% YoY. The main pressure comes from three policy rate cuts, or 0.75%, over the past 12 months, which pushed loan yields lower, although cheaper funding costs and loan growth have partly offset the impact. Meanwhile, Thai Airways has made no progress in its search for a new CEO, with applicants saying they have only received an email confirming they passed qualification screening but have not yet been told the date for their vision presentations. AOT is set to sign two AOTGA contracts tomorrow, covering the ground services and the third cargo terminal projects, with a combined value of 67.3 billion baht over 25 years, starting operations in 2027. Brokers note that AOTGA is a key piece in strengthening airport revenue after it earned a profit of 898 million baht in 2025, and expect Airports of Thailand to post normal profit of 4.7 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the full quarter of the new PSC, and to raise its 2027 target with profit surging 45% to 28 billion baht, with a target price of 73 baht. As for MGC, brokers expect normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to jump 30% to 350 million baht on XPENG X9 deliveries, and expect a new high of about 500 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a buy recommendation and a target of 20.20 baht per share. Meanwhile, three real estate associations are joining forces to hold the 50th House and Condo Expo from 29 October to 1 May 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, targeting sales of more than 10 billion baht. GRAMMY reported that GMM MUSIC had total revenue of 2.1612 billion baht in the first half of 2026, up 12.2%, and net profit of 280.7 million baht, up 29.2%. For TRUE, brokers recommend buying and expect record third-quarter 2026 profit of nearly 7 billion baht, with a maximum target of 19 baht. DIF is expected to post investment profit of 3.138 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 3% from a year earlier, and to pay a dividend of 0.222 baht per unit, with an average full-year yield of 8.7% and a target of 10.60 baht.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive AOT to sign two AOTGA contracts worth 67.3 billion baht covering ground services and third cargo terminal, strengthening airport revenue.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Negative SCB is among the seven banks FSS expects to post lower combined profit, pressured by three policy rate cuts that reduced loan yields.
TISCO.BK · Monetary · Negative TISCO is one of the seven banks FSS expects to report lower combined net profit, hit by the falling interest-rate cycle.
TTB.BK · Monetary · Negative TTB is among the seven banks FSS expects to post lower combined profit, pressured by three policy rate cuts lowering loan yields.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Negative FSS expects BBL among seven banks to post combined profit down 11.6% YoY, pressured by three policy rate cuts lowering loan yields.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Negative KBANK included in FSS estimate of seven banks with combined profit down 11.6% YoY amid falling interest-rate cycle.
Sansiri Joins Forces with 9 Financial Institutions to Issue Perpetual Bonds in February 2027
Sansiri is preparing to issue a new series of subordinated bonds with capital-like characteristics in February 2027, with nine financial institutions acting as joint arrangers. Wichan Wiriyaphusit, Chief Financial Officer of Sansiri Public Company Limited, disclosed that this bond issuance is part of a strategic capital structure management plan to strengthen the financial statements, enhance financial flexibility and liquidity, and prepare funding sources to support business expansion plans and new project investments in 2027, alongside managing financial costs and refinancing maturing bonds. The company has received a corporate credit rating of BBB+ with a stable outlook, while this series of subordinated capital-like bonds has been assigned a credit rating of BBB- with a stable outlook by TRIS Rating Company Limited on October 2, 2026. For operating results in the first nine months of 2026, Sansiri achieved total presales of 36.4 billion baht, representing 76% of its full-year target of 48 billion baht. It has closed sales on 18 projects with a combined value of over 23.5 billion baht, and has an accumulated backlog of over 24 billion baht. In the fourth quarter of 2026, the company plans to launch 12 new projects with a combined value of 11 billion baht, covering all segments. Interested investors can study the details at www.sec.or.th or contact the nine financial institutions acting as arrangers, namely Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank and Kasikorn Securities, Krungthai Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and InnovestX Securities, CIMB Thai Bank, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, Asia Plus Securities, Krungthai XSpring Securities, and Yuan Ta Securities (Thailand). The company is currently in the process of filing the registration statement and draft prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has not yet taken effect.
ASP.BK · Capital · Neutral Named as one of nine joint arrangers for Sansiri's perpetual bond issuance, a mandate mention with no stated financial impact.
BBL.BK · Capital · Neutral Listed as a joint arranger of Sansiri's subordinated bond issue; role noted but no deal size or fee impact given.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Neutral Kasikornbank and Kasikorn Securities named among arrangers of Sansiri's capital-like bonds, with no quantified benefit.
KTB.BK · Capital · Neutral Krungthai Bank and Krungthai XSpring Securities appear as joint arrangers for the Sansiri bond issue, mentioned only in the arranger list.
SCB.BK · Capital · Neutral Siam Commercial Bank and InnovestX Securities named as joint arrangers of the Sansiri perpetual bond issuance, no specific impact stated.
TRIS Rating Co., Ltd. · Capital · Positive TRIS Rating assigned the subordinated capital-like bonds a BBB- stable rating, a rating action for the issuer's new debt.
SCB WEALTH partners with BlackRock to launch SCBGMHEAVY fund, risk level 6, investing in global equities and alternative assets
SCB WEALTH, together with SCBAM and BlackRock, has launched the SCB Global Multi-Asset Core Portfolio Heavy open-ended fund, or SCBGMHEAVY, a risk level 6 or high-risk fund. The initial public offering will run from October 6 to October 12, 2026, with a minimum investment of 1,000 baht. The fund runs an aggressive multi-asset portfolio with allocations adjustable from 0 to 100% and uses BlackRock's volatility control strategy to help manage risk in rapidly changing markets. Sorachai Sunetta, Deputy Head of High Net Worth and Affluent Banking at Siam Commercial Bank, said the fund is designed to give investors access to a wide range of asset classes across all regions worldwide and helps complete the Investment Shelf under the partnership between SCB WEALTH, SCBAM and BlackRock, covering every risk level, from the quality fixed-income fund SCBGOFIX at risk level 4, the mixed funds SCBGMLITE and SCBGMCORE at risk level 5, through to SCBGMHEAVY at risk level 6. Narongsak Plodmechai, Chief Executive Officer of SCBAM, said the fund uses an Aggressive Allocation strategy, focusing on aggressive investment in global equities through leading ETFs and individual stocks, while supplementing the portfolio with Liquid Alternatives. The investment strategy is divided into three parts: aggressive multi-dimensional portfolio management at approximately 85%, investment through alternative liquid assets at approximately 15%, and the volatility control strategy that is exclusive to BlackRock. The fund is managed by BlackRock Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions, or MASS, which has more than 20 years of experience and over 2.5 trillion US dollars in assets under management.
BLK · Capital · Positive BlackRock partners with SCB WEALTH/SCBAM to launch and manage the SCBGMHEAVY fund, expanding its fund management business.
SCB Asset Management Co., Ltd. · Capital · Positive SCBAM co-launches and manages the SCBGMHEAVY multi-asset fund with BlackRock, adding a new risk-level-6 product to its fund range.
SCB.BK · Capital · Positive SCB WEALTH, part of SCB X, launches the SCBGMHEAVY fund with BlackRock, completing its Investment Shelf and expanding its wealth-management product lineup.
Brokers expect Q3/2026 banking sector core profit to grow 5% to 42.9 billion baht
Bualuang Securities' Research team estimates that the combined core profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 will be 42.9 billion baht, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, higher than the third-quarter 2026 GDP estimate of 2.0% YoY. Two main factors support this: lower provisioning and growing fee income. For provisioning, the sector's average rate is expected at 1.30%, down 17bps YoY and 2bps QoQ, while the average non-performing loan ratio to total loans is expected to edge up slightly from 2.98% at the end of June 2026 to 3.00% at the end of September 2026. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to non-performing loans is expected at 204.1%, flat QoQ. Total net fee income is expected at 40.3 billion baht, up 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven mainly by the wealth management business, whose combined net asset value of bank-owned asset management companies stood at 7.8 trillion baht at the end of August 2026, up 4% since the start of the quarter and up 11% YoY. Securities brokerage fee income is likely to grow significantly both YoY and QoQ, from securities trading value expected to rise 64% YoY and 34% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026. Counting total net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026, it is expected at 55.2 billion baht, down 11% YoY and flat QoQ, due to lower average net interest margin and lower mark-to-market gains on financial instruments. Banks expected to post YoY core profit growth are KKP +73%, TISCO +23%, BBL +20%, KBANK +5% and TTB +4%, while KTB is expected to see core profit fall 11% YoY and SCB is expected to be flat YoY. For the fourth quarter of 2026, combined core profit is expected at 39.7 billion baht, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ, on higher operating expenses. For 2027, the banking sector's combined net profit is expected at 221 billion baht, up 1% YoY, supported by loan growth expected at 2% YoY and net fee income growth of 4% YoY, while average net interest margin has likely already passed its trough in the second quarter of 2026 after most loan and deposit rate adjustments were completed.
Kasikorn Research Center expects FCD outstanding balances to fall 2.4% this year as the baht weakens and depositors rush to convert back into baht
Kasikorn Research Center reported that outstanding balances in foreign currency deposit accounts, or FCDs, have already fallen by about 2.4% this year as of the end of July 2026, in contrast to the previous four years when they rose continuously by double digits. In 2022 they rose 18%, in 2023 they rose 38%, in 2024 they rose 20%, and in 2025 they rose 32%. Dr. Kanchana Chokpaisarnsilp, research executive at Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd., said the cause is that the baht has weakened this year, unlike previous years when the baht strengthened, making this a good moment to convert back into baht for a larger amount of money. The decline in outstanding balances covers both US dollar and Japanese yen holdings. Meanwhile, the US central bank's latest interest rate hike has widened the gap with Thai interest rates further, though Thai rates remain unchanged at 1%. Separately, Patrick Pulia, Head of Financial Markets at Siam Commercial Bank, said the bank has an e-FCD account in the SCB EASY application offering interest of up to 5% for US dollar deposits of at least 25,000 dollars but not more than 100,000 dollars, with deposits required between August 1 and December 31, 2026.
USDTHB.FOREX · Monetary · Negative Baht has weakened this year, making it a good moment to convert FCD holdings back into baht, supporting the baht.
Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd. · · Neutral Kasikorn Research Center is the source of the FCD balance forecast, but the news carries no direct financial impact on it.
SCB.BK · Capital · Positive SCB's e-FCD account offers up to 5% interest to attract US dollar deposits, a product/funding push amid falling FCD balances.
Trinity upgrades SCB to "Buy on Weakness" with 150 baht target, expects 3Q26 profit of 11.301 billion baht
Trinity Securities has upgraded its recommendation on SCB X Public Company Limited, or SCB, from "Hold" to "Buy on Weakness" while maintaining its 2027 target price of 150 baht. It expects third-quarter 2026 net profit of 11.301 billion baht, up 2% from the previous quarter but down 6% from a year earlier. The main reason for the year-on-year earnings weakness is a lower net interest margin following cuts to the policy interest rate, while the quarter-on-quarter trend is supported by lower loan-loss provisioning expenses. Trinity expects net interest income in the third quarter of 2026 to fall 1% quarter on quarter, with net interest margin steady at 3.27% from 3.28% in the previous quarter. Non-interest income is expected to be flat quarter on quarter at 13.983 billion baht. Provisioning expenses are expected to fall about 6% quarter on quarter to 9.035 billion baht, bringing credit cost down to 150 basis points, back within the group's target range of 135 to 155 basis points. For its full-year forecasts, Trinity maintained its 2026 net profit at 42.568 billion baht, down 10% year on year, and expects 2026 net interest income of 116.352 billion baht, down from 119.117 billion baht in 2025, while non-interest income is seen at 44.042 billion baht and pre-provision profit at 90.128 billion baht. It forecasts a 2026 net interest margin of 3.50% and a return on average equity of 8.4%. Trinity said SCB's share price has weakened to near the 150 baht target price, so it is starting to see upside from a dividend yield expected at around 7% per year. It cited the main risks as an economic slowdown and deteriorating debt quality. The closing price in the report was 153 baht.
Bank stocks slump on fears flood-relief measures will pressure NIM; brokers recommend buying KBANK, KTB, KKP, TTB
Banking stocks fell sharply in trading on September 30, 2026, after the market worried that relief measures for customers affected by flooding would pressure net interest margins, or NIM. As of 11:04 a.m., KBANK stood at 232 baht, down 10 baht or 4.13%; KTB at 41 baht, down 2.25 baht or 5.20%; BBL at 185.50 baht, down 3.50 baht or 1.85%; SCB at 149.50 baht, down 3.50 baht or 2.29%; TTB at 2.92 baht, down 0.08 baht or 2.67%; and KKP at 109.50 baht, down 3 baht or 2.67%. KGI Securities (Thailand), or KGI, disclosed that several commercial banks have rolled out relief measures to help both retail loan customers and SME business loan customers, covering everything from a three-to-six-month suspension of interest payments, reduced principal repayments, lower monthly instalments, extended debt repayment periods, to special interest rates. For SME customers, most banks are offering extra help, such as additional working capital loans and special-rate loans of around 3.5%. Combined with assistance from state specialised financial institutions, or SFIs, this is expected to support borrowers nationwide comprehensively. KGI assesses that KTB will be hit hardest, as retail customers make up as much as 40% of its total loans, followed by SCB at 15%, then KBANK at 10%, and BBL at less than 10%. However, the research team views these measures as an opportunity for banks to accelerate debt restructuring, which would help ease pressure on bad-debt provisioning expenses. It forecasts bad-debt provisioning expenses in 2026 at 1.04% for KTB, 1.24% for BBL, 1.50% for KBANK, and 1.62% for SCB. It maintains an Overweight stance on the commercial banking sector even though these stocks have underperformed the SET Index recently, and it expects the floods will not significantly affect the overall economy or GDP growth. It sees the share price pullback as an opportunity to accumulate, and picks KBANK, KTB, KKP, and TTB as its top buy recommendations.
KTB.BK · Pricing · Negative KTB is assessed as hardest hit by flood-relief measures, with retail loans at 40% of its book, pressuring NIM.
BBL.BK · Pricing · Negative Flood-relief measures (interest suspensions, reduced repayments, special rates) are expected to pressure net interest margins, hitting BBL's lending profitability.
KBANK.BK · Pricing · Negative KBANK's participation in flood-relief measures, with retail loans at 10% of its book, is seen pressuring NIM.
SCB.BK · Pricing · Negative SCB's flood-relief measures, with retail loans at 15% of its book, are expected to pressure net interest margins.
TTB.BK · Pricing · Negative TTB shares fell as flood-relief measures (interest-payment suspensions, reduced instalments, special rates) are feared to pressure banks' net interest margins.
KKP.BK · Pricing · Negative KKP shares fell amid the sector-wide NIM pressure from flood-relief measures, though it is not singled out in KGI's exposure breakdown.
Asia Plus Says Weak Baht Drives Foreign Selling, Recommends Accumulating SCB, PTT, TRUE
Asia Plus Securities assesses that the Thai stock market still faces high volatility from inflation that has been entrenched for more than seven months and from the baht, which is trending weaker past 34 baht per US dollar. On foreign capital flows, foreigners were net sellers of Thai debt instruments in the third quarter to the tune of 37 billion baht, flipping the cumulative net position since the start of the year to negative 7.952 billion baht. Meanwhile, in the Thai stock market, foreigners were net sellers of nearly 20 billion baht in just six trading days and opened a cumulative net short position in the TFEX market of another 33,000 contracts. The main pressure comes from the widening spread between 10-year US and Thai government bond yields, which has hit its highest level since the start of the year. Although overall foreign selling was heavy, they still alternated into accumulating large laggard stocks over the past six trading days, namely SCB at 2.974 billion baht, PTT at 1.361 billion baht, TOP at 882 million baht, IRPC at 627 million baht, and BBL at 517 million baht. The broker recommends technically strong standout stocks for the day, namely TRUE, which is expected to post strong third-quarter 2026 earnings growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with an estimated dividend yield of about 1.2% for the third quarter of 2026, as well as GULF, PLANB, BE03, and LITE80.
Krungsri expects SCB to post third-quarter profit of 10.8 billion baht, flags highest dividend in the banking sector
Krungsri Securities has issued an analysis of SCB X Public Company Limited, or SCB, viewing it as a bank with a standout dividend and one of the highest dividend yields in the banking sector at 7% per year, with interest rates no longer trending lower. For third-quarter results, the research team expects SCB to report net profit of 10.8 billion baht, down 10% from the same period a year earlier and down 3% from the previous quarter, as interest income falls on a lower net interest margin of 3.05%, compared with 3.44% in the third quarter of last year, following policy rate cuts. Non-interest income fell 3% from a year earlier and 2% from the previous quarter on lower fair-value-through-profit-or-loss investments, along with higher operating expenses. As for the fourth-quarter profit outlook, the research team expects SCB's profit to rise from the same period a year earlier on growth in wealth management income, but to decline from the previous quarter on operating expenses, since the fourth quarter carries the highest expenses of the year. On investment strategy, the research team maintains a hold rating on SCB with a 2027 target price of 155 baht.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative Krungsri expects SCB's Q3 net profit to fall 10% y/y to 10.8 billion baht on lower net interest margin and non-interest income.
Broker says foreign investors sold 15 billion baht of Thai stocks, advises gradual accumulation of bank shares
Pi Securities reported that foreign investors continued to sell Thai stocks, with net selling totaling roughly 15 billion baht since the start of September, and heavy selling occurred yesterday when about 7 billion baht flowed out in a single day. One of the most heavily sold groups was banking, which along with energy and electronics has been one of the standout performers this year, prompting profit-taking in shares such as SCB, KBANK and BBL. KTB's price was less volatile because buying from Vayupak Fund helped support it. Part of the selling pressure stemmed from bank share prices that had risen very strongly earlier, combined with global market uncertainty including the U.S. debt problem, oil prices, inflation concerns and rising bond yields, as well as the direction of U.S. interest rates, where the market is increasingly seeing a chance of a hike, leading some investors to reduce risk and lock in profits first. The recent decline in the SET is therefore not too worrying, because both market fundamentals and domestic buying continue to help support it. As for the banking group, although it may still face profit-taking pressure in the short term and this quarter's earnings may not grow as strongly as before, the overall fundamental picture has not changed, especially the banks' still-strong financial positions, combined with high yield levels and dividend payouts early next year that will provide another supporting factor. Therefore, if bank share prices fall on foreign selling, it is still seen as an opportunity to gradually accumulate rather than to reduce exposure.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative BBL is among the banking group hit by foreign profit-taking selling after strong gains, with short-term earnings growth seen weaker.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Negative KBANK is one of the heavily sold bank shares as foreign investors locked in profits after strong earlier gains.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB is named among the banking shares subject to foreign profit-taking selling after very strong price gains.
KTB.BK · Capital · Neutral KTB saw less volatile selling pressure because Vayupak Fund buying supported it, though it still faces sector profit-taking and softer quarterly earnings.
Pie Securities Says Surging US Yields Point to 11 Beneficiary Stocks
Pie Securities stated that pressure on the Thai stock market from flooding is believed to be over, but global conditions remain under pressure from the accelerating rise in US bond yields, which have repeatedly hit new record highs. US government bond yields rose across all maturities, driven by concerns over higher inflation in line with energy prices and investors demanding greater returns in light of US debt risks. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 70% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at its October meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 347 points, or 0.67%, overnight, pressured by oil prices and bond yields. Brent crude closed up 0.9% amid concerns over tight supply after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. The research team estimates the SET index range at 1585 to 1610 points, advises increased caution, and recommends focusing on stocks that benefit psychologically from rising yields, namely the banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, and SCB; the export group ITC and TU; the defensive group ADVANC; and the energy group PTT, PTTEP, TOP, and PTTGC. This morning the baht continues to weaken, which may pressure foreign capital flows.
Flash floods force 8 banks to temporarily close over 200 branches in Bangkok, surrounding provinces and the East
Following heavy rain and widespread flooding in many areas of Bangkok, its surrounding provinces and provinces in the East, several financial institutions announced the temporary closure of more than 200 branches on 28 September 2026, while also adjusting the opening and closing hours of some branches. Krungthai Bank temporarily closed the most branches, 105 in total, comprising 74 closed due to flood impact and 31 closed for a special public holiday. Kasikornbank closed 57 branches, Siam Commercial Bank closed 37, Bank of Ayudhya closed 26, TTB closed 16, UOB closed 15, Land and Houses Bank closed 4, TISCO Bank and Thai Credit Bank closed 3 branches each, and CIMB Thai Bank closed 1 branch. Each bank has advised customers to use nearby branches or the bank's digital channels instead.
Kasikorn Securities Maintains Positive View on Banking Sector, Picks KTB and KKP as Top Picks
Kasikorn Securities stated in an analysis that the third-quarter 2026 profits of the seven banks under its coverage will come in at 49.4 billion baht, down 2% QoQ and 15% YoY, with the main pressure coming from lower fair value through profit or loss gains and lower investment gains QoQ as government bond yields rose. However, core operating performance is expected to improve QoQ on an anticipated 2bps QoQ rise in net interest margin thanks to lower interest costs, and a credit cost that is expected to fall 7bps on smaller management overlay provisions compared with the second quarter of 2026. Looking at individual stocks, KKP, TISCO and TTB are expected to report standout YoY third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 25%, 6% and 5% respectively, while BBL, KTB and SCB are expected to see significant YoY profit declines on weaker net interest margins and lower realized fair value through profit or loss and investment gains. For the fourth-quarter 2026 and 2027 outlook, banking sector profits are expected to remain supported by easing interest costs and credit costs gradually returning to normal levels, with loan growth expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2026 driven mainly by corporate and government loans. The research team maintains a positive view on the banking sector, selecting KTB and KKP as top picks, and has shifted the valuation base year for all banking stocks from mid-2027 to end-2027, raising individual target prices by 1–3% without any change to earnings forecasts.
Bangkok Bank, Krungthai, Siam Commercial, and ttb roll out debt-relief measures for flood-hit customers
Thailand's commercial banks, including Bangkok Bank, Krungthai Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, and ttb, are rushing out relief measures for customers affected by flooding in several areas of Bangkok and nearby provinces, covering retail customers, SMEs, and businesses through principal payment deferrals, reduced installments, lower interest rates, debt restructuring, and new loans for home repairs and business recovery. Each bank has set different conditions and timeframes depending on loan type and the level of impact. Bangkok Bank is granting business loan customers a temporary suspension of principal payments of up to 12 months and cutting monthly installments on home and personal loans by as much as 40% for a period of up to 6 to 12 months, along with SME business loans with terms of up to 5 years and a fixed interest rate starting at 3.5% per year for 2 years. Krungthai Bank is reducing installments on home loans and SSME business loans to 75% of current installments for 1 year, with 0% interest per year for 3 months and a fixed interest rate of 2.5% per year for 33 months, for a total special-rate period of 3 years. Siam Commercial Bank is allowing individual customers to defer principal payments for up to 3 months and SME customers for up to 6 months, while increasing temporary revolving credit lines by up to 20% of the existing limit but not exceeding 10 million baht. ttb is allowing home loan customers to defer principal payments for 3 months and is considering principal-free repayment of up to 6 months for business and SME customers. Customers interested in joining each bank's measures can register their interest until December 31, 2026.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative Bangkok Bank defers principal up to 12 months and cuts installments up to 40%, plus offers SME loans at 3.5%, pressuring its margins and cash flow.
KTB.BK · Capital · Negative Krungthai cuts home and SSME installments to 75% with 0% interest for 3 months and 2.5% fixed for 33 months, reducing interest income.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB X's Siam Commercial Bank allows principal deferrals and raises temporary credit lines, weighing on its loan book and earnings.
TTB.BK · Capital · Negative ttb defers home loan principal for 3 months and considers up to 6 months principal-free for business/SME customers, hurting its interest income.
Phillip expects Q3/2026 profit of 12.3 billion baht for KTB and 11.5 billion baht for SCB, recommends gradual buying
Phillip Securities (Thailand) has issued an analysis forecasting the third-quarter 2026 operating results of Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, and SCB X Public Company Limited, or SCB, along with investment strategy recommendations and target price assessments for each stock. Phillip's research team expects KTB to post a third-quarter 2026 profit of 12.3 billion baht, down 16.1% from the same period a year earlier, on lower interest income following cuts in loan rates and a decline in gains from financial instruments. Compared with the previous quarter, however, profit rose 1.2% on higher interest income and fee income. KTB's loans in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow another 3% quarter on quarter, lifting loan growth to 6.6% year to date, the highest level in the banking group, and are expected to bring the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans down from 2.92% in the second quarter of 2026. Phillip's research team maintains its 2026 profit estimate for KTB at 48.9 billion baht, up 1.4% year on year, and views KTB as the bank that stands to benefit most from various government projects. It expects a dividend of 2.10 baht, a dividend yield of 4.7%, and for 2027 a dividend of 2.21 baht, a dividend yield of 4.9%. It therefore recommends gradual buying, with a target price of 46 baht. For SCB, Phillip's research team expects a third-quarter 2026 profit of 11.5 billion baht, down 4.9% year on year. Although fee income is expected to rise and interest costs and provisions are expected to fall, a sharp decline in interest income pulled profit lower. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, profit rose 3.1% on higher fee income and gains from financial instruments. SCB's loans in the third quarter of 2026 may also contract 0.3% quarter on quarter, leaving loan growth at 1.9% year to date, and the contraction in loans may push the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans higher than the previous quarter's 3.17%. Phillip's research team maintains its full-year 2026 profit estimate for SCB at 44.9 billion baht, down 5.5% year on year, and views SCB as having an attractive dividend. It expects a dividend of 10.66 baht for 2026, a dividend yield of 6.8%, and for 2027 a dividend of 11.03 baht, a dividend yield of 7.1%. It recommends gradual buying, with a target price of 163 baht.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Phillip forecasts KTB Q3/2026 profit of 12.3bn baht, maintains 2026 estimate, and recommends gradual buying with a 46 baht target price.
SCB.BK · Capital · Neutral Phillip expects SCB Q3/2026 profit of 11.5bn baht, down 4.9% y/y on lower interest income, though fee income and provisions improve.
Sansiri Accelerates Title Transfers Worth 18.3 Billion Baht, Pushing Recurring Income to 25%
Sansiri Public Company Limited, or SIRI, is proceeding with the gradual transfer of ownership for six completed projects with a combined value of 18.3 billion baht in the second half of 2026, supporting continued operational growth from the first half. Mr. Uthai Uthaisangsuk, Chief Executive Officer, stated that the projects being gradually transferred include dCondo Khiri, Via Ari, The Base Ratchada 19, Chuch Ratchathewi, and The Standard Residences Hua Hin. The company has also partnered with leading financial institutions SCB, KBANK, KTB, and BBL to help real demand customers plan loans and improve credit, increasing the chances of successful ownership transfers. On revenue structure diversification, the company aims to raise the proportion of recurring income from its services and hotel businesses from approximately 15% of total revenue at present to 25% within three to five years. Meanwhile, analysts at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited maintain a buy recommendation with a fair value of 1.90 baht, noting that accumulated sales since the start of the year stand at 27.9 billion baht, or 68% of the 2026 sales target of 41.0 billion baht, and expect the residential business gross margin in the second half to recover from 26.4% in the first half, driven by high-margin condominiums in the backlog being gradually transferred.
Siam Commercial Bank and FWD Launch Infinity Legacy Life Insurance, Thailand's First Coverage to Age 120
Siam Commercial Bank and FWD Life Insurance have launched Infinity Legacy, a life insurance product offering the longest coverage period on the Thai market, protecting policyholders up to age 120. It accepts applicants aged 60 to 90, the first time the industry has extended eligibility as high as age 90. The product features short premium payment terms, available as either a single payment or over two years, with a minimum sum assured of 20 million baht. Under the 120/1 plan, policyholders receive annual payouts starting from the first policy year through age 100 at a rate of 1.25% per year, from ages 101 to 110 at 1.50% per year, and from ages 111 to 119 at 2% per year, plus a lump sum of 120% of the sum assured at maturity. Under the 120/2 plan, annual payouts are 2.5%, 3% and 4% over the same age brackets, with a lump sum of 240% of the sum assured at maturity. Applications are simple, with no medical examination and no health questionnaire required. For applicants aged 81 to 90, the company will consider coverage on a case-by-case basis, with different annual payout benefits. The launch responds to Thailand's aging society, where people aged 60 and over make up more than 22% of the population and are expected to reach 36% by 2050, while average life expectancy among Thais stands at about 76.8 years. It also addresses the trend of passing wealth between generations and preparations for inheritance tax under the Inheritance Tax Act of 2015, which requires heirs receiving estates valued above 100 million baht to pay tax on the amount exceeding the threshold. The tax rate is 5% for descendants and ascendants, while other relatives or individuals pay 10%, and legally registered spouses are exempt.
Aging Population › Retirement Income & Annuities ▲Demand
FWD Life Insurance Public Company Limited (Thailand) · Demand · Positive FWD Life Insurance launches Infinity Legacy, Thailand's first life coverage to age 120, expanding its product lineup and customer reach.
SCB.BK · Demand · Positive SCB X's banking arm Siam Commercial Bank launches Infinity Legacy life insurance product, expanding its insurance product offerings to Thai customers.
Bualuang: loans at 7 banks flat MoM at end-August, up 3.4% YoY
Bualuang Securities reported that the combined loans of the seven banks it tracks stood at 10.9 trillion baht at the end of August, flat month-on-month and up 3.4% year-on-year. The increase was led by KTB, up 0.3% on government-sector lending; TISCO, up 0.3% on business and SME loans; TTB, up 0.2%; and KBANK, up 0.2% on business loans. Meanwhile, BBL fell 0.7%, KKP dropped 0.6%, and SCB slipped 0.1%. Total deposits rose 0.5% to 13.2 trillion baht, led by TISCO, TTB, and KTB. Combined loans at the end of September are expected to remain flat as banks stay strict on loan approvals amid a slowing economy, though full-year 2026 loans could come in about 1–2% above the previous assumption, with KBANK, KKP, and KTB likely to exceed estimates by 1–2%, while TTB faces a similar degree of downside risk. On earnings for July–August, TTB and TISCO look set to stand out year-on-year, with TTB up 11%, TISCO up 9%, KBANK up 7%, KKP up 6%, and KTB up 2%, while SCB was flat and BBL fell 19%. Bualuang Securities maintained an equal-weight stance on the banking sector, seeing early signs of improvement in loans and the potential for clearer momentum in the fourth quarter of 2026.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative BBL's loans fell 0.7% MoM and July-August earnings dropped 19% YoY, the weakest among the tracked banks.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive KBANK's loans rose 0.2% on business loans, July-August earnings up 7%, and full-year 2026 loans likely to exceed estimates by 1-2%.
KKP.BK · Capital · Neutral KKP's loans dropped 0.6% MoM but July-August earnings rose 6% and 2026 loans may exceed estimates by 1-2%.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive KTB led loan growth at 0.3% on government-sector lending, deposits rose, and 2026 loans likely to exceed estimates by 1-2%.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB's loans slipped 0.1% MoM and July-August earnings were flat, lagging peers.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO's loans rose 0.3% on business and SME loans, deposits led the increase, and July-August earnings are set to rise 9% YoY.
Yuanta Securities expects US midterm elections to pressure SET, sees volatility, highlights 6 stocks to weather the storm
Yuanta Securities assesses that this round of US midterm elections is likely to increase short-term volatility in the stock market, with the current environment bearing some resemblance to 2018, when the S&P 500 declined in the one month before the election amid pressure from trade tensions and the Fed's rising interest rate cycle. The key pressures this time come from the Iran war, the Fed's return to rate hikes, and political uncertainty ahead of the election. The difference from 2018 is the direction of Fed monetary policy, which, although returning to rate hikes again, is still less restrictive this cycle, and the latest Dot Plot suggests that further rate increases are likely limited. At the same time, the decision to raise rates this round also helps reinforce confidence in the Fed's independence and reduces the Policy Risk Premium somewhat. The research team assesses that although the market still faces the risk of a correction before or during the Midterm Election, the downside may be more limited than in 2018 due to reduced monetary policy pressure. Top Picks include JPMUS19, NVDA19, AMZN19, META80, and NBIS80. On the Thai stock side, they include GULF, GUNKUL, SSP, MINT, SCB, and BBL.
KGI says three big banks KTB, KBANK and BBL to benefit as loans recover alongside private investment
KGI Securities (Thailand) says large corporate loans grew strongly in August 2026, with short-term money market loans and interbank lending rising sharply at every bank except Siam Commercial Bank, which shifted its excess liquidity into bond investments instead. Overall money market loans grew 14% month on month, with BBL and KBANK posting the strongest growth among the large banks at about 18% month on month each, followed by TTB at 14% month on month and KTB at 13% month on month, while KKP recorded growth of as much as 36% month on month. Retail loans declined broadly, with only KTB lending aggressively, as most banks applied cautious lending criteria, including for housing loans and hire purchase loans, with SCB and TTB seeing their hire purchase loan portfolios contract because of stricter standards on electric vehicles. KTB, however, appears to have a more aggressive policy on housing and retail lending, which should be positive for its net interest margin, while total loans and money market lending grew 1.4% month on month compared with deposits at 0.5% month on month. KGI says growth in private investment accelerated in August, in line with the recovery in lending, and large banks should be the main beneficiaries, with KTB, KBANK and BBL standing out the most, while the momentum in private investment could drive full-year loan growth about 2% above the banks' financial targets.
BBL.BK · Demand · Positive BBL posted strongest money-market loan growth (~18% MoM) and is named among large banks benefiting from recovering private investment and lending.
KBANK.BK · Demand · Positive KBANK posted strongest money-market loan growth (~18% MoM) and is named among large banks benefiting from recovering private investment and lending.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB is named among top beneficiaries, grew money-market loans 13% MoM, and its aggressive housing/retail lending should lift net interest margin.
KKP.BK · Demand · Positive KKP recorded the highest money-market loan growth at 36% MoM, benefiting from the lending recovery.
TTB.BK · Demand · Positive TTB's money market loans grew 14% month on month, benefiting from the recovery in private investment and corporate lending.
SCB.BK · Demand · Neutral SCB shifted excess liquidity into bonds instead of money-market lending and saw hire-purchase loans contract on stricter EV standards, offsetting the sector recovery.
Hua Seng Heng expects gold to hit $5,000 by end of 2026, SCB sees further upside
Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures estimates global gold prices at around $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with domestic gold prices likely to trade in a range of 75,000 to 75,700 baht per baht-weight of gold, under an assumption of the baht at 31.70 to 32.00 baht per dollar. Sirilak Pakotiprapha, Director of the Analysis Department, said that over the past 20 years gold prices have risen more than eightfold, and in 2025 gold demand reached a record high of 5,000 tonnes, driven by buying from retail investors worried about missing out. In 2026, gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January before declining between March and June amid the Iran war and inflation concerns. Wachiravat Banchuen, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at SCB Financial Markets, Siam Commercial Bank, estimates global gold prices at $4,900 to $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with a chance of rising above $5,000 per ounce in 2027. He expects central banks worldwide to buy a net 50 tonnes of gold per month in 2026 and 40 tonnes per month in 2027, and sees the baht trading in a range of 33.30 to 33.80 baht per dollar over the next one to two months and at 32.80 to 33.80 baht per dollar by the end of the year.
GOLD · Demand · Positive Hua Seng Heng and SCB forecast gold at $4,900-5,000/oz by end-2026 with record demand and central-bank buying supporting prices.
USDTHB.FOREX · Monetary · Positive SCB expects baht to trade 33.30-33.80 per dollar near term and 32.80-33.80 by year-end, implying a weaker baht outlook.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Neutral SCB strategist quoted on gold and baht forecasts; no company-specific development for SCB X.
BAM takes over 10 billion baht of SCB bad debt, boosting ROE momentum, target 9 baht
Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited, or BAM, has taken over bad debt from SCB worth around 10 billion baht, with revenue beginning to be gradually recognized in the third quarter of 2026, following an analyst meeting yesterday. Research from Yuan Da Securities noted that BAM's cash collection improved compared with the previous quarter after some debtors who had requested payment deferrals resumed payments under their contracts. Meanwhile, competition in auctions to buy secured bad debt from commercial banks has fallen sharply because the second- and third-ranked competitors have reduced their bad debt purchases and small AMCs are facing liquidity problems, allowing BAM to negotiate purchases at lower prices, down from around 23-25% of debt value to only 14-20%. As for the establishment of JVAMCs, two are expected to be set up in November this year and one more in early 2027, giving BAM as many as five JVAMCs in 2027, up from two currently, which are with GSB and KBANK. The research house maintained its forecast for 2026 net profit at 1.655 billion baht, down 8.7% year on year, before returning to growth of 6.7% in 2027, and kept its buy recommendation, noting the stock trades at a 2026 PBV of only 0.5 times, with 30.4% upside from a 2027 fundamental value of 9 baht, and an expected dividend yield of another 6.6%.
BAM.BK · Capital · Positive BAM took over ~10bn baht of SCB bad debt and Yuan Da keeps buy rating with 9 baht target and 30.4% upside.
BAM.BK · Competition · Positive Rivals cut bad-debt purchases and small AMCs face liquidity problems, letting BAM negotiate purchases at 14-20% vs 23-25% of debt value.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) Company Limited · Capital · Neutral Yuanta's research is the source of the analysis, but the news is about BAM, not a development for Yuanta itself.
SCB.BK · · Neutral SCB is the seller of the ~10bn baht bad debt to BAM, but no clear positive or negative impact is stated.
Fitch Revises Thailand's Outlook to Stable, Boosting Bank Stocks KTB and TTB on Upgrade Hopes
The Thai stock market rose 13.88 points, or 0.88%, yesterday to close at 1,598.03 points, with foreign investors net buying 4.63 billion baht after Fitch Ratings raised its outlook on Thailand's credit rating from negative to stable while affirming the rating at BBB+. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the government will accelerate investment in new industries, the transition to green energy, and maintain fiscal discipline. DAOL Securities analysts said the country's outlook revision should lead banks to have their outlooks raised accordingly, expecting KTB and TTB to have a chance of an outlook upgrade this round, and gave a buy recommendation on KTB with a target of 50 baht, KBANK with a target of 270.00 baht, and TTB with a target of 3.20 baht. Meanwhile, UOB Kay Hian analysts viewed it as a positive factor for domestic play stocks, especially banks and consumer goods. Iara Securities was positive on large banks BBL, KBANK, SCB, and KTB, as well as the technology, AI infrastructure, and renewable energy sectors, namely DELTA, GULF, ADVANC, and TRUE.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Positive DAOL expects KTB to have a chance of an outlook upgrade this round and gave a buy recommendation with a 50 baht target after Fitch revised Thailand's outlook to stable.
TTB.BK · Monetary · Positive DAOL expects TTB to have a chance of an outlook upgrade this round and gave a buy recommendation with a 3.20 baht target after Fitch revised Thailand's outlook to stable.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Positive DAOL gave KBANK a buy recommendation with a 270 baht target and Iara was positive on KBANK as a large bank after the sovereign outlook upgrade.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive Fitch's outlook revision to stable is seen as positive for large Thai banks including BBL, which Iara Securities highlighted as a beneficiary.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Positive Iara Securities was positive on large banks including SCB following the sovereign outlook revision.
Bank stocks surge as UBS raises SCB target to 165 baht, DAOL tips KTB and KBANK as top picks
Thai bank stocks rose sharply, with SCB at 155.50 baht at 14:35 on 21 September 2026, up 3 baht or 1.97%, while KBANK stood at 259 baht, up 6 baht or 2.37%, and KTB at 45.50 baht, up 0.50 baht or 1.11%, after Fitch Ratings revised Thailand's credit outlook from negative to stable and affirmed its BBB+ rating, leaving Fitch, Moody's and S&P Global Ratings all with a stable outlook on Thailand. Analysts at DAOL Securities (Thailand), or DAOLSEC, maintained an overweight weighting on the banking sector, picking KTB with a buy recommendation and a 50.00 baht target and KBANK with a buy recommendation and a 270.00 baht target as their top picks, and expect KTB and TTB to benefit most from the credit outlook revision. Analysts at UBS upgraded SCB to buy from hold and raised its price target to 165.00 baht from 152.00 baht, while lifting 2027-2028 earnings per share forecasts by 2-5% on lower credit cost estimates of 1.55%-1.60%, and kept their forecast for a high dividend payout ratio of 80% for 2026-2027.
SCB.BK · Capital · Positive UBS upgrades SCB to buy from hold and raises its price target to 165 baht on lower credit cost estimates.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive DAOLSEC names KBANK a top pick with a buy rating and 270 baht target, and it rose 2.37%.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive DAOLSEC picks KTB as a top pick with a buy rating and 50 baht target, expecting it to benefit most from the credit outlook revision.
TTB.BK · Capital · Positive DAOLSEC expects TTB to benefit most from Thailand's credit outlook revision to stable.
UBSG.SW · Capital · Positive UBS is the analyst upgrading SCB and raising its target, a positive research action for the bank.
UBS Raises SCB Target Price to 165 Baht, Recommends Buy on Lower Provisions and Surging Dividends
UBS upgraded SCB X from Hold to Buy and raised its target price to 165.00 baht from 152.00 baht, reflecting the stock's continued discount versus peers, expectations of stronger profit growth in 2027, and the opportunity for increased returns from excess capital following the adoption of Basel-IV standards. It also raised its earnings-per-share forecasts for SCB in 2027-2028 by 2-5%, driven by a cut in its credit cost estimate from 1.65% to 1.55%-1.60%. The continued transfer and sale of non-performing loans and the possibility of setting up a joint asset management company, or JVAMC, to move retail and SME loans off the balance sheet will be key factors in meaningfully reducing the credit cost structure. Meanwhile, asset quality and credit costs for the Auto X business in the Gen-2 group are expected to stabilise more in mid-2027, while the strong wealth management and housing loan platforms will help support shareholder returns and dividends over the long term. UBS continues to expect a high dividend payout ratio of 80% for 2026-2027 and raised its average for 2028-2030 from 72% to 75%. It expects the Tier 1 capital ratio to remain above 17% over the medium term, and based on an 80% payout ratio, the stock's fair value could rise as high as 172.00 baht. The target price increase to 165.00 baht stems from a 6% rise in earnings forecasts and a 3% boost from the Basel-IV adjustment combined with dividend policy, based on a forward 12-month P/E of 11.8 times. SCB and KTB are considered the most attractive banks, given their standout balance of profits, loan-loss reserve ratios, and strong capital positions.
SCB.BK · Capital · Positive UBS upgraded SCB X to Buy and raised its target price to 165 baht on lower credit costs, higher EPS forecasts, and increased dividend payout.
Fitch Upgrades Thailand's Outlook to Stable, Affirms BBB+ Rating, Boosting Bank Stocks BBL, SCB, KTB, KBANK
Fitch Ratings has revised Thailand's credit rating outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, reflecting an improved view of Thailand's risk profile and bringing the major credit rating agency, which had previously held a negative view on Thailand, back to a Stable stance. Foreign investors were net buyers of Thai stocks from the start of the year through September 18, 2026, totaling 51.04985 billion baht, reflecting the return of foreign capital. Yuan Ta (Thailand) Securities assesses this as a positive factor for the Thai stock market, especially commercial banking and financial stocks, driven by improved confidence in the country's credit and the prospect of lower funding costs. Its top pick is BBL, which has a high proportion of large corporate loans and trades at a PBV of about 0.64 times, while SCB is supported by its expansion in wealth management and offers a dividend yield of about 7% per year. InnovestX Securities views the outlook revision as reflecting improved government stability and policy continuity that helps reduce political uncertainty, and names BBL and KTB as attractive stocks.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive Fitch upgraded Thailand's outlook to Stable, improving credit confidence and lowering funding costs; BBL named top pick with high large-corporate loan exposure.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Positive Thailand's outlook upgrade to Stable reduces political uncertainty and funding costs; InnovestX names KTB as attractive.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Positive Outlook upgrade boosts Thai bank stocks; SCB cited for wealth-management expansion and ~7% dividend yield.
SCB EIC reports nearly 12% of Thai firms are zombie companies, with real estate, hotels and restaurants most at risk
The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB EIC, reports that nearly 12% of companies currently operating in Thailand are at risk of being zombie companies. A zombie company is defined as one whose profits are insufficient to cover loan interest for two consecutive accounting periods and which has been in operation for more than three years. Broken down by industry, residential real estate, hotels and accommodation, and restaurants and beverages have the highest share of zombie companies. Zombie companies in the SME sector account for nearly three times the share of large businesses. The risk in the real estate and hotel sectors stems from heavy capital expenditure, large debt burdens and high fixed costs, while revenue depends on economic conditions, purchasing power and the tourism sector. Vitai Ratanakorn, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, said the truly hopeless zombie companies are those lacking potential, unable to adapt, or unable to compete. They must accept reality and be allowed to follow market mechanisms, because the Bank of Thailand and the financial system cannot use measures to rescue all SMEs. Meanwhile, SME business loans have contracted for 16 consecutive quarters, reflecting the weakness of businesses that has led financial institutions to tighten their lending.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB EIC reports nearly 12% of Thai firms are zombie companies and SME loans have contracted 16 straight quarters, signaling rising credit risk and weak lending for Siam Commercial Bank.
Brokers: Fed's 0.25% Rate Hike Favors Bank, Export and Value Play Stocks
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Positive Fed's 0.25% rate hike is seen favoring commercial banks, with KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP named as standout picks.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Positive SCB is named among commercial banks expected to benefit from the Fed's 0.25% rate hike.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Positive Named as a standout commercial-bank pick expected to benefit from the Fed's 0.25% rate hike.
KKP.BK · Monetary · Positive Named as a standout commercial-bank pick expected to benefit from the Fed's 0.25% rate hike.
PYLON.BK · Monetary · Positive PYLON is listed among construction materials and contractors benefiting from the rate-hike environment and softer crude oil prices.
STECON.BK · Monetary · Positive STECON is listed among construction materials and contractors seen benefiting from the rate-hike backdrop and softer crude oil prices.
KSS flags safe-haven stocks as Fed rate hike lifts banks, insurers and hospitals on high bond yields
Analysts at Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assess that this meeting of the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise the policy rate by 0.25% in what is being called an Insurance Rate Hike, a pre-emptive move. The market has already priced in about 92% odds of a hike this round, so the bigger driver for the market is the direction of the Dot Plot, along with inflation projections and the number of remaining rate increases ahead. KSS believes that if the Fed signals a pause to assess more economic and inflation data, the stock market could see a short-term rebound, or Relief Rally, with domestic and defensive stocks drawing more attention, especially hospitals such as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, or BDMS, and Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH. If instead the Fed signals continued rate hikes beyond market expectations, that would pressure stocks with high valuations that are sensitive to bond yields, such as Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA. Meanwhile, Phillip Securities (Thailand), or PST, assesses that the Thai stock market is likely to move sideways down in the short term on investors reducing risk ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the 2-year bond yield rising to 4.69% while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.04%, the highest levels since 2024 and 2007 respectively. As for Thai stocks that benefit from interest rates holding at a high level, the research team names the banking group: TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, Kasikornbank, or KBANK, SCB X, or SCB, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. In the insurance group: Bangkok Life Assurance, or BLA, Thai Life Insurance, or TLI, and Dhipaya Group Holdings, or TIPH.
SCB EIC watches for new US Section 301 tariffs, warns Thailand may face high rates
The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB EIC, says the United States is preparing to consider additional Section 301 tariff measures on excess capacity, with Thailand among 16 countries under review, and rates are expected to be announced within September. Dr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Chief Executive Officer of the Economic Research and Sustainability line at SCB EIC, said the first round of announced rates is likely to be high, just as the United States initially imposed high tariffs on Thailand in the first round before scaling them back to allow for negotiations, meaning Thailand must accelerate talks on this issue. At the same time, Thailand is being watched for its high level of linkage to Chinese supply chains, so it must plan to restructure domestic supply chains to avoid being seen as a transshipment route for goods. Previously, Thailand was hit with a 12.5% US tariff over forced labor. In the first seven months of this year, Thailand's trade surplus with the United States grew further, ranking fifth, compared with tenth in 2024 and seventh in 2025. SCB EIC expects Thai exports to expand 16% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027.
SCB.BK · Tariff · Negative SCB EIC warns Thailand faces high new US Section 301 tariffs, a trade measure that threatens Thai exports and the bank's home economy.
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