Gold Futures

Domestic gold prices are on track to post a positive return for an eighth consecutive year. As of October 8, 2026, gold prices had risen by about 900 baht, and looking back at October data over the past five years, from 2021 to 2025, gold rose in four of those years and fell in only one, delivering positive returns in 80% of the period under review. In 2025, prices surged by 3,000 baht to 61,400 baht, while 2024 was the only year to decline, falling 500 baht. Gold nonetheless climbed to a yearly peak of around 81,950 baht before correcting. On the morning of October 8, 2026, 96.5% gold bars were bought back at 65,650 baht and sold at 65,850 baht. The key supporting factor is the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September rose by only 29,000 and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, prompting the market to sharply scale back expectations for an October rate hike. Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey of 74 central banks found that 45% plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, the highest share since the survey began in 2018, and China added about 740,000 ounces, or roughly 23 tonnes, to its gold reserves in September, a 23rd consecutive month of increases. Pressures still come from U.S. bond yields, Brent crude oil prices back above 100 dollars a barrel, and technical signals after prices broke below support at 4,200 dollars an ounce on September 28. Gold must break through 4,200 dollars to confirm a short-term recovery and 4,540 dollars to confirm a medium- and long-term uptrend.

Discovery Mining Ltd. reported past drilling results from 52 holes at the Pamour Mine that confirm and expand existing open-pit mineral resources across multiple zones, with numerous high-grade gold intersections both within and beyond the current resource shell. Several of the strongest Pamour intercepts sit just outside the current pit design, hinting that future resource updates could reframe the scale and configuration of this core asset. The company also recently received key environmental and land use permits for Cordero in Mexico, reducing permitting risk around a future growth project. Discovery Mining's narrative projects $1.7 billion in revenue and $400.5 million in earnings by 2029, requiring 16.0% yearly revenue growth and a $158.9 million earnings increase from $241.6 million today, while some optimistic analysts assume revenue of about US$2,600,000,000 and earnings of about US$695,000,000 by 2029. The company's forecasts yield a CA$14.86 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

Gold prices rebounded today, supported by falling oil prices and a weaker dollar. As of 19:50 Thailand time, spot gold was up 41.81 dollars, or 0.90%, at 4,173.33 dollars per ounce, while COMEX December gold futures rose 49.60 dollars, or 1.19%, to 4,206.60 dollars per ounce. Meanwhile, global crude oil prices tumbled more than 1%, with Brent crude falling below 103 dollars per barrel and West Texas crude dropping below 91 dollars per barrel, after President Donald Trump confirmed via Truth Social that the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and that talks with Iran are making progress. At the same time, investors increased their bets that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its October meeting, after the U.S. services index fell to 54.9 in September, below expectations of 55.2 and down from 55.4 in August. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign an 80.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, and a 70.2% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its December meeting. Investors are watching next week's releases of the consumer price index and producer price index ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting on October 27-28.

YLG Bullion International Company Limited issued its daily gold price trend analysis report for October 9, 2026, stating that gold prices are trying to build a base around $4,121-4,105, with attention needed on the downtrend line around $4,150 and the previous high around $4,184. If the rebound fails to break through $4,150-4,184, the correction is still seen as possibly unfinished, but if it clears $4,184, the trend would turn positive again. Strategically, YLG recommends risking a long position if the price pulls back without breaking below $4,121-4,105, with a stop loss on the long position if the price falls below $4,105, and taking profit if the price fails to break through $4,150-4,184. As for key factors, yesterday gold closed up $21.70 after US bond yields declined and the dollar weakened, along with oil prices paring gains after President Trump said the United States would not launch an attack on Iran before the US midterm elections in November, noting that the two countries are engaged in constructive progress talks, or Productive Talks, to end a war that has lasted six months. However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said more rate hikes are still needed, but the pace of increases can be flexible and a pause in October is possible, reflecting that the Fed has not yet finished its tightening cycle.

DPM Metals Inc. reported third-quarter 2026 production of 97,000 gold-equivalent ounces and said it was on track for the high end of its full-year production guidance, with the Vareš mine ramp-up running ahead of plan and expected to exceed its 2026 output target. The company also decided to begin developing twin declines into the Wedge Zone at Chelopech by year-end, a move it says points to additional near-term production potential and a longer mine life. The company's narrative projects $1.4 billion in revenue and $837.1 million in earnings by 2029, yielding a CA$67.78 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price. The most pessimistic analysts expected revenue to fall to about US$1.0 billion and earnings to about US$572.7 million. Investors are still watching how higher costs or permitting delays could affect the outlook.

G Mining Ventures Corp. reported preliminary third-quarter 2026 production of 44,960 ounces of gold from its 100%-owned Tocantinzinho Gold Mine in Pará State, Brazil, a 22% increase over the second quarter of 2026. The company said the result keeps it on track to hit the midpoint of its full-year production guidance of 160,000 to 190,000 ounces of gold. Year-to-date, G Mining has produced 113,651 ounces and sold 114,325 ounces of gold. Average plant throughput for the quarter was 12,372 tonnes per day, average grade processed was 1.33 grams per tonne, gold recovery was 92.0%, and the strip ratio was 2.47 to 1. Chief Executive Officer Louis-Pierre Gignac said mining rates averaged 74,209 tonnes per day during the quarter, a 7% increase over the second quarter, and that access to higher-grade Phase 2 mineralization positions the operation for a significant increase in grade and production in the fourth quarter. The company expects to release its third-quarter 2026 financial and operating results after market close on November 12, 2026, with a conference call scheduled for November 13, 2026.

K92 Mining Inc. reported Q3 2026 production of 49,776 ounces gold equivalent from its Kainantu Gold Mine in Papua New Guinea, its second-highest quarterly result to date, comprising 46,063 oz gold, 1,948,951 lbs copper and 55,746 oz silver. The quarter also marked one million AuEq ounces produced since commercial production was declared in February 2018, and set records for ore processed at 250,042 tonnes, ore mined at 252,744 tonnes, total material mined at 485,812 tonnes and mine development at 3,486 metres. The company reiterated its 2026 production guidance of 190,000 to 225,000 oz AuEq and said output is expected to be strongest in Q4 on a planned higher-grade stoping sequence and the ramp-up of the second and third mining fronts. As at September 30, 2026, 98% of Stage 3 Expansion growth capital had been spent or committed, with the expansion remaining on budget. Chief Executive Officer David Medilek said the Phase 4 Primary Ventilation Upgrade, remaining haul road upgrades and deployment of new 60-tonne surface trucks position K92 for its strongest production quarter of the year.

Granada Gold Mine Inc. has applied for drill permits at its 100%-owned Granada Gold Project near Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, adjacent to the Cadillac Break in the Abitibi gold belt. The company said it intends to combine infill drilling to improve confidence in the existing mineral resource with exploration drilling to test potential extensions, with results guiding future exploration spending and supporting resource updates. Historical exploration at Granada has included more than 150,000 metres of drilling in approximately 1,000 drill holes, with mineral resources delineated over approximately 2 km of an estimated 5.5 km east-west mineralized structure, leaving the deposit open along strike and at depth with only about 20% of the property explored to date. The 2026 mineral resource estimate, effective June 8, 2026, reports Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources of 890,600 ounces of gold, or 15,982,000 tonnes at 1.73 g/t Au, and separately Inferred Mineral Resources of 865,500 ounces, or 20,096,000 tonnes at 1.34 g/t Au. The move follows J.W. Dumont's appointment as President on September 28, 2026, and the company said it will announce the finalized scope, budget and schedule once confirmed, with drilling remaining subject to required permits, financing and contractor availability.

GMV Minerals Inc. has completed its 2026 diamond drill program at the Mexican Hat Gold project in southeast Arizona, reporting 4,775 metres drilled across 25 holes from 24 platforms that tested the deposit over 950 metres of strike length and 370 metres of width. The company said all drill holes intersected significant gold mineralization within the established solids, with notable assays including 12.64 gpt gold over 4.88 m in MHC26-14, 3.30 gpt gold over 12.39 m in MHC26-24, and 1.33 gpt gold over 29.57 m in MHC26-09. A total of 94 significant mineralized intervals exceeding the previous 0.2 gpt gold cut-off were encountered, averaging 0.87 gpt gold over 7.74 m, and drilling has now tested over 90% of the mineralization. President and CEO Ian Klassen said MHC26-14 returned one of the highest gold drill intersections reported at the project to date, adding that the company looks forward to an updated NI Mineral Resource estimate this fall, the first since June 22, 2020, when it was compiled using a base case of $1,375 per ounce gold. The 25 new drill holes will be incorporated into a revised NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate that the company intends to release in the coming months.

China's central bank, the PBOC, said on October 7 that it added another 740,000 ounces of gold to its reserves in September, a 23rd consecutive monthly increase, as gold prices eased toward 4,000 dollars an ounce. Gold fell more than 6% in September as higher energy prices stemming from conflict in the Middle East stoked inflation and pushed the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, a survey of 74 central banks published by the World Gold Council in June found that 45% of respondents planned to buy more gold next year, the highest share since the survey began in 2018, with only one aiming to reduce purchases. Joachim Nagel, president of Germany's central bank, said earlier this week that rising government public debt is a factor pushing central banks to increase their gold holdings. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, deputy governor of the Bank of Italy, told the London Bullion Market Association's annual meeting in Sorrento on Monday, October 5, that gold is a safe asset whose role is especially important now amid high geopolitical risk and concerns about economic fragmentation.

Trinity Securities assesses that global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 will face a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors supporting the market. It expects the SET Index to swing within a range of 1,500 to 1,700 points and recommends gradually accumulating stocks when panic selling occurs, through a bottom-fishing strategy. It also highlights five standout stock themes: livestock, tourism, retail, processed agricultural products, and sectors benefiting from foreign direct investment. Natchat Mekmasin, senior assistant managing director of the securities analysis department at Trinity Securities, said the SET Index target from the PE Model stands at 1,750 points in the best case, 1,630 points in the base case, and 1,510 points in the worst case, compared with the current SET level of about 1,580 points. Meanwhile, Thailand's implied equity risk premium is around 5.8%, higher than the long-term average of 4.0%. Kamolchai Polinthong assessed that the gold price has passed its low of 3,900 US dollars per ounce and recommends gradually accumulating in the 4,000 US dollars per ounce zone, aiming to take profits at a target of 5,000 US dollars per ounce early next year. At the same time, Trinity Securities has launched the DR Terminal program, developed jointly with the Stock Exchange of Thailand to help Thai investors access foreign stock data, with features including a Valuation Screener, DR Compare, and Trinity Underlying Scanner.

Kamolchai Polinthong, Assistant Managing Director of Trinity Securities Public Company Limited, or TNITY, assesses that the roughly five-month correction in gold prices is nearing its end, after prices peaked at around 5,600 dollars and fell back to 3,900 dollars. He views the low of this cycle as already passed at 3,900 dollars, with an attractive zone for gradual accumulation at 4,000 to 4,100 dollars. A key condition is that prices must not break the 3,900-dollar support under any circumstances; a break would be considered a technical breakdown and would require a full reassessment of the situation. The medium- to long-term trend remains upward, as prices are still holding above the 75-week and 200-day moving averages. Gold prices are expected to begin a clear recovery from early November, with Fibonacci-ratio resistance at 4,500 dollars and 4,700 dollars respectively, and an upside target for this cycle of 4,900 to 5,000 dollars, which is expected to be seen from late this year through the Chinese New Year festival early next year. As for domestic gold prices, 96.5% gold, after peaking above 80,000 baht and falling to a low in the 60,000-baht range, is estimated to need about one more month to build a base, since technical indicators such as MACD remain negative. Key resistance is at 70,000 to 72,000 baht, with key support at 63,000 baht, which must also not be broken; a break of this level would be consistent with global gold breaking below 3,900 dollars. For investment strategy, investors are advised to split their capital into two parts: one for gradual accumulation at support and one held in reserve for averaging down. They may choose to buy on dips into the support zone, or wait for technical signals to confirm a clear uptrend before following the buy, accepting a higher price in exchange for greater certainty. Continuous dollar-cost averaging remains another suitable option for those looking to accumulate over the long term.

According to official data published by the People's Bank of China on the 7th, gold holdings at the end of September stood at 77.47 million troy ounces, up from 76.73 million troy ounces at the end of the previous month. This marks the 23rd consecutive monthly increase. China has continued to add to its gold holdings this year even as prices swung sharply. The valuation of gold reserves at the end of September was 323.52 billion dollars, down from 350.08 billion dollars at the end of the previous month. Gold prices fell more than 6 percent in September. As of 0244 GMT on the 7th, spot gold was trading at around 4,147.47 dollars an ounce.

YLG Bullion International Company Limited issued its gold price trend analysis report for October 7, 2026, stating that yesterday gold set a new low around $4,104 before rebounding strongly through $4,170, clearly reducing the bearish outlook. For today, if the pullback does not break below the $4,125 to $4,104 range, it is seen as a decline ahead of further gains, but the price must break through $4,226 to confirm an upward trend. The report recommends opening long positions when the price pulls back without breaking the aforementioned range, cutting losses on long positions if it falls below $4,104, and taking profits if the price fails to break through $4,184 to $4,226. On key factors, gold closed up $24.40 yesterday after the 10-year US bond yield eased from its highest level in more than 20 years, while the dollar weakened from its highest level in a year, supporting gold buying. The market cut the probability of a Fed rate hike in October to just 22% after September employment came in weaker than expected, but still assigns an 84% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December. Meanwhile, oil prices declined as Middle East oil exports remained strong and the G7 released oil from emergency reserves, helping ease supply and inflation concerns, an additional positive factor for gold.

Amaroq Ltd. reported gold production of approximately 12 koz for Q3 2026 and approximately 21 koz for the nine months ended 30 September 2026 from its Nalunaq gold mine in southern Greenland, reaching its Q4 2026 production target of 12 koz one quarter early. The company reiterated its FY2026 gold production guidance of 25 to 35 koz. Amaroq also announced its inclusion in the FTSE 250 Index as of market open on 8 October 2026, following the announcement from FTSE Russell. CEO Eldur Olafsson said the quarter demonstrated growing operational consistency and the impact of enhanced recoveries from the flotation recovery circuit commissioned earlier in the summer, and that the index inclusion validates the company's move from AIM to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Amaroq is listed on the LSE and Nasdaq Iceland under the ticker AMRQ and on OTCQX under AMRQF.

Precious metals consultancy Metals Focus said in its annual report that it expects gold prices to set a record high in 2027. It said persistent inflation, a widening U.S. fiscal deficit and policy uncertainty will drive the rise as investors seek alternatives to traditional dollar-denominated assets. The average gold price in 2027 is projected to reach $5,330 an ounce, about 22% above current levels, though the U.S. Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy further to counter above-target inflation, which could pose short-term headwinds. Spot gold hit a record high of $5,594.82 in late January 2026, but has since fallen 25% amid soaring energy prices and Fed tightening, and is currently trading around $4,152.27. Metals Focus also expects silver to benefit from many of the same macroeconomic factors supporting gold and to rise over the next 12 to 18 months, with average prices climbing from $70 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026 to above $90 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2027. For platinum, it expects the average price in 2027 to be $2,060 an ounce as tight physical supply eases but a continued supply deficit supports prices, marking a fifth consecutive annual supply shortfall.

Hong Kong imported a total of 112.7 tonnes of gold of Russian origin in the first seven months of 2026, a record high and already more than the 92.1 tonnes imported in all of 2025, according to a CNBC report citing data from BullionVault, which analysed figures from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. The figures mark a sharp increase from 2021, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when Hong Kong imported only 3.3 tonnes of Russian gold. Russian gold accounted for nearly 15% of Hong Kong's non-monetary gold imports in the first seven months of this year, up from just 0.6% in 2021. A key turning point came in March 2022, when the London Bullion Market Association, or LBMA, suspended all six Russian gold and silver refineries from its Good Delivery List. The United States, Britain and other Western countries then imposed further restrictions on trade in Russian gold, effectively closing off markets that had once been key destinations for the metal. Vita Spivak, a senior adviser at Gatehouse Advisory Partners, said Hong Kong has become a major hub for trade between Russia and China since the war in Ukraine, with most of the gold ultimately destined for mainland China. Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, said Hong Kong's official data showing a rapid rise in Russian gold imports reflects the trade relationship and support between Russia and China, while Russian gold exports to Britain and Western countries that imposed sanctions have fallen sharply. The inflow of Russian gold comes as China is also broadening its gold purchases, designating gold as a strategic mineral, and the Chinese central bank continues to add gold to its reserves. Data from S&P Global shows China's official gold reserves rose by more than 40 tonnes in the first half of 2026, more than double the amount bought in the same period a year earlier.

The World Gold Council estimates that the above-ground stock of gold mined by humanity stood at about 220,000 tonnes at the end of 2025, with two-thirds of that mined since 1950. The above-ground stock in 2010 was about 160,000 tonnes, meaning roughly 60,000 tonnes were added over the past 15 years. Mine production rose from around 400 tonnes a year in the early 1900s to about 3,800 tonnes in 2025, a record high, while gold prices are also at record levels. Comparing 2011 with 2025, among demand derived from mine production, jewellery demand fell by 300 tonnes, from 700 tonnes to 400 tonnes, while central banks increased their purchases by 300 tonnes, from 500 tonnes to 800 tonnes, and investment demand rose by 500 tonnes, from 1,700 tonnes to 2,200 tonnes. Central banks have been net buyers since 2010, exceeding 1,000 tonnes a year from 2022 to 2024 and surpassing 800 tonnes in 2025, well above the 2010-2021 average of 473 tonnes.

Gold prices rebounded today after weak employment figures eased investors' concerns about interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. As of 9:37 pm Thailand time, spot gold rose 0.43 dollars, or 0.01%, to 4,140.10 dollars per ounce, while COMEX December gold futures gained 7.00 dollars, or 0.17%, to 4,169.30 dollars per ounce. Investors increased their bets that the Fed will hold rates steady at its October meeting after the US Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, below analysts' forecast of 89,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, against expectations that it would remain steady at 4.1%. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that investors now assign a 78.4% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% in October, up from just 29.1% a week earlier, and a 21.6% probability to a 0.25% rate hike to 4.00-4.25%, down from as much as 70.9% previously. However, gold's gains were capped by a stronger dollar, while investors await the minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting, due for release on Wednesday.

Joachim Nagel, President of Germany's central bank, said that soaring government debt around the world is giving central banks more reason to diversify their international reserves into gold, amid concerns over credit risk and geopolitical uncertainty. Speaking at a conference in Sorrento, Italy, he said that while rising government bond yields make debt instruments comparatively more attractive, higher debt levels also fuel concerns about the credit quality of these assets. Germany holds the world's second-largest gold reserves, but its holdings have barely changed over the past several years, in contrast to many central banks that have sharply accelerated their gold purchases, with the war in Ukraine serving as a key turning point after the United States imposed financial sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, a survey of 74 central banks by the World Gold Council, published in June, found that 45% plan to buy more gold over the next 12 months, the highest share since the survey began in 2018, and only one central bank said it planned to reduce its gold holdings.

Orezone Gold President and CEO Patrick Downey outlined a plan to grow annual gold production from roughly 230,000 ounces to 500,000 ounces, anchored by Bomboré, Casa Berardi and a fully permitted development pipeline. Downey also flagged the Heva-Hosco project in Quebec as a source of additional, currently under-recognized value that could materially reshape the company's longer-term production and asset mix. The most relevant recent update is the new Casa Berardi life of mine plan, which outlines a 14 year production profile averaging about 116,000 ounces per year at an AISC of US$1,877 per ounce. Orezone's narrative projects $807.7 million revenue and $555.0 million earnings by 2029, requiring 7.1% yearly revenue growth and a $437.2 million earnings increase from $117.8 million today, while some of the most optimistic analysts had penciled in about US$1.5 billion of revenue and US$450.5 million of earnings by 2029. Bomboré's execution and grid reliability remain the key catalyst and main operational risk, with country risk in Burkina Faso still firmly in focus.

Aris Mining has cleared a key permitting hurdle for its Soto Norte gold copper project in Colombia by completing its Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and beginning formal community engagement ahead of an environmental licence application. The milestone follows earlier approvals on the mine plan and clarifications to Colombian regulatory protections. The company's shares have returned 15.19% year to date and posted a very large 3 year total shareholder return, though the 30 day share price return has eased 8.37%. Analysts see a narrative fair value of CA$41.53 against a last close of CA$24.95, with the gap linked to project build out and operating scale. The ongoing expansion at the Segovia operations, with the new second ball mill increasing processing capacity by 50% and a targeted production ramp up to 300,000 ounces in 2026, is described as a driver of sustained revenue growth and structurally higher operating margins.

Amaroq Ltd. has completed its 2026 resource drilling programme at the Nanoq Gold Project in South Greenland, with 4,728.9 metres of core drilling across 33 holes focused on infill drilling of the Central Zone to support a planned maiden Mineral Resource Estimate, alongside step-out drilling to the south and at the West 1 target. Approximately 88% of holes intersected visible gold and copper sulphides similar to that observed in 2024 and 2025, with assay results still pending. Metallurgical test work by SGS Lakefield indicates Nanoq mineralisation is amenable to processing at the Nalunaq facility, with total gold recoveries of approximately 97 to 99% using the existing flow-sheet. Construction has also commenced on the Nanoq beach landing facility and starter access track, improving access to the mineralised area. CEO Eldur Ólafsson said the results provide the basis for bulk sampling Nanoq ore at Nalunaq towards the end of 2027 or into 2028, and for further resource and exploration drilling.

Bualuang Securities released its October Cross Asset report, stating that gold still carries a positive outlook for 2027, with a Base-case target price of 5,000 US dollars per ounce and a Best-case scenario of 5,600 US dollars per ounce. This follows 2026, when prices had surged to a peak of around 5,600 US dollars per ounce in late January, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, expectations of falling interest rates, and the Debasement Trade trend, before a sharp correction from March through June and a recovery after building a base around 4,000 US dollars per ounce on buying from gold ETF funds. The report states that under the Base Case, the Fed is expected to raise rates just one more time by 25 bps during the remainder of 2026 before entering a period of holding rates steady, which will keep real yields elevated in the short term and may limit the pace of gold's recovery. Structural demand remains strong: in August, the Chinese central bank accumulated gold for a 22nd consecutive month, while Poland continued to build up its gold reserves to near its 700-tonne target. On the supply side, total gold supply has grown only at a low-single-digit rate over the past several years.

Gold futures on the New York market closed up $7, or 0.17%, at $4,186.70 an ounce on Wednesday, September 30, after the United States reported inflation figures below expectations, which could reduce the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again at its October meeting. The US Commerce Department reported that the headline personal consumption expenditures price index, which includes food and energy, rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier, below analysts' forecast of 3.7%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy and is the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, rose 3.0% in August from a year earlier, below analysts' forecast of 3.3%. After the data were released, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in only a 37% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at its October meeting, down from 51% on Tuesday and from 71% a week earlier. Investors are watching the US nonfarm payrolls report due this Friday, October 2, with analysts expecting job growth of 98,000 in September after a gain of 162,000 in August, and expecting the September unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.