Kamolchai Polinthong, Assistant Managing Director of Trinity Securities Public Company Limited, or TNITY, assesses that the roughly five-month correction in gold prices is nearing its end, after prices peaked at around 5,600 dollars and fell back to 3,900 dollars. He views the low of this cycle as already passed at 3,900 dollars, with an attractive zone for gradual accumulation at 4,000 to 4,100 dollars. A key condition is that prices must not break the 3,900-dollar support under any circumstances; a break would be considered a technical breakdown and would require a full reassessment of the situation. The medium- to long-term trend remains upward, as prices are still holding above the 75-week and 200-day moving averages. Gold prices are expected to begin a clear recovery from early November, with Fibonacci-ratio resistance at 4,500 dollars and 4,700 dollars respectively, and an upside target for this cycle of 4,900 to 5,000 dollars, which is expected to be seen from late this year through the Chinese New Year festival early next year. As for domestic gold prices, 96.5% gold, after peaking above 80,000 baht and falling to a low in the 60,000-baht range, is estimated to need about one more month to build a base, since technical indicators such as MACD remain negative. Key resistance is at 70,000 to 72,000 baht, with key support at 63,000 baht, which must also not be broken; a break of this level would be consistent with global gold breaking below 3,900 dollars. For investment strategy, investors are advised to split their capital into two parts: one for gradual accumulation at support and one held in reserve for averaging down. They may choose to buy on dips into the support zone, or wait for technical signals to confirm a clear uptrend before following the buy, accepting a higher price in exchange for greater certainty. Continuous dollar-cost averaging remains another suitable option for those looking to accumulate over the long term.
TNITY says gold's correction is near its end, sees accumulation at $4,000-4,100 and a rebound target of $4,900-5,000, supporting gold futures.
