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US President Donald Trump expects the war with Iran to end very soon, whether through negotiations or military operations, and insisted that oil prices will fall sharply once the conflict is over. Speaking at a campaign rally in Syracuse, New York, on Friday, October 9, Trump said the conflict would end soon one way or another, and warned the Iranian government that if it does not comply with all demands, there may be no country of Iran left. He also claimed that more oil is currently being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war began, and called on refineries and fuel retailers to cut prices. Trump had previously announced that the United States would not launch a new round of strikes on Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, but has not ruled out resuming military force after the vote. Meanwhile, the Russian government said Trump welcomed Russia's involvement in finding a settlement to the conflict with Iran, after discussions with President Vladimir Putin. In Yemen, the situation has escalated, with the Saudi-led coalition saying it destroyed 136 Houthi military targets in a large-scale operation, including missile launch sites and radar stations. Yemen's internationally recognized government separately claimed its forces carried out more than 2,750 strikes within 24 hours and put more than 1,400 Houthi members out of action, though those figures have not been independently verified. The latest surge in violence came after the Houthis attacked several airports in Saudi Arabia, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing three Saudis. In addition, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for attacking the liquefied petroleum gas carrier NV Sunshine near the Strait of Hormuz, and warned that vessels using the shipping route without permission could be targeted even outside the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command said US forces have ordered 133 commercial vessels to change course under the US government's blockade measures against Iran.

The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the United States rose this week to 603, up 56 from the same time last year, according to new data Baker Hughes published on Friday. Within that total, active oil rigs rose by 6 to 462, which is 44 above year-ago levels, while gas rigs fell by 1 to 132, still 12 more than a year earlier, and miscellaneous rigs held steady at 9. The Permian Basin accounted for much of the gain, with its count rising by 4 to 274, 24 rigs above year-ago levels, while the Eagle Ford held fast at 49, 5 more than this time last year. Separately, EIA data showed weekly U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.979 million bpd in the week ending October 2, up from 13.955 million bpd the prior week and up 350,000 bpd from a year ago, and Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count rose for a fourth straight week, up 1 crew to 196. Oil prices were down Friday ahead of the data release, with Brent trading at $103.80, down 0.42% on the day but up $2.70 from a week ago, and WTI at $91.29, down 0.22%.

Gold prices rebounded today, supported by falling oil prices and a weaker dollar. As of 19:50 Thailand time, spot gold was up 41.81 dollars, or 0.90%, at 4,173.33 dollars per ounce, while COMEX December gold futures rose 49.60 dollars, or 1.19%, to 4,206.60 dollars per ounce. Meanwhile, global crude oil prices tumbled more than 1%, with Brent crude falling below 103 dollars per barrel and West Texas crude dropping below 91 dollars per barrel, after President Donald Trump confirmed via Truth Social that the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and that talks with Iran are making progress. At the same time, investors increased their bets that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its October meeting, after the U.S. services index fell to 54.9 in September, below expectations of 55.2 and down from 55.4 in August. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign an 80.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, and a 70.2% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its December meeting. Investors are watching next week's releases of the consumer price index and producer price index ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting on October 27-28.

Crude oil prices in global markets fell more than 1%, with Brent crude slipping below 103 dollars per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude dropping below 91 dollars per barrel, after investors eased concerns about an Iran war when U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States will not attack Iran before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. As of 6:30 p.m. Thailand time, West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery fell 0.92 dollars, or 1.01%, to 90.57 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude for December delivery fell 1.53 dollars, or 1.47%, to 102.75 dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, Tasnim news agency, a semi-official Iranian outlet, reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran has received U.S. comments on Iran's seven-day proposal and will send its response in the coming days. The proposal, submitted to the United States on September 22 through intermediaries on the sidelines of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, calls for ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices were also pressured by a Reuters report that China, the world's largest oil importer, is preparing to resume exports of refined fuel after briefly suspending them during the Golden Week holiday, which would help ease tight supply conditions in global markets.

The International Energy Agency, or IEA, has reached an agreement to accelerate the release of oil reserves onto the market, prioritising the allocation of diesel under the plan announced in March. The move could put roughly 100 million barrels of oil onto the market, out of the total 400 million barrel reserve release programme the IEA began in March to counter oil shortages and soaring energy prices caused by the war with Iran. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said member countries agreed to speed up the release of reserves under the joint action plan, with the goal of getting oil to market as quickly as possible, and supported prioritising the release of as much diesel as possible from emergency stockpiles, given the severe tightness in the diesel market. The statement came after the G7 countries reached an agreement on Friday, October 2, to release a combined 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel, following President Donald Trump's warning that he could ban US diesel exports if countries did not increase the amount of diesel they put on the market. However, analysts and some governments say that despite the resolution, the actual volumes delivered may fall short of the targets. IEA member countries are scheduled to assess and review the plan at a governing board meeting next week.

The International Energy Agency, or IEA, has endorsed a plan to accelerate the release of oil from emergency reserves pledged by member countries in March 2026, which will put roughly 100 million barrels of oil onto the market. The IEA said on Wednesday, October 7, that member countries have agreed to complete the previously announced release of oil from reserves as quickly as possible, and encouraged members to prioritise releasing diesel from reserves wherever possible, given that the diesel market is facing tight conditions. Xinhua News Agency reported that about 325 million barrels have been released to the market so far under the joint measure from March 2026, with some countries releasing more than they initially pledged. All 32 IEA member countries reached a unanimous agreement on March 11 to release 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, the largest reserve release in the IEA's history, and member governments still hold about 1.1 billion barrels of public emergency reserves, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel. Meanwhile, a European Commission spokesperson said on Wednesday that European Union member states have agreed that the planned releases must stay within the volume framework approved in March. IEA members are scheduled to assess and review the plan at a governing board meeting next week.

The International Energy Agency, or IEA, has reached an agreement to accelerate the release of oil reserves, prioritising the allocation of diesel under a plan that began in March, in order to ease energy prices that have surged to a record high following the impact of the Iran war on global oil supply. After the announcement, West Texas crude futures for November delivery closed at 88.28 dollars per barrel, down 1.16 dollars, or 1.3%, while North Sea Brent crude futures for December delivery closed at 100.20 dollars per barrel, down 38 cents, or 0.38%. On the earnings front, Samsung Electronics reported that third-quarter operating profit surged to a record high of 10.74 trillion won, or 80.1 billion dollars, an increase of nearly ninefold, though still below analysts' forecasts. Revenue came in at 19.5 trillion won, also below expectations. Meanwhile, Microsoft revealed the price and launch schedule for the Surface Laptop Ultra, its new flagship laptop powered by an Nvidia chip, starting at 2,599 dollars, roughly 400 dollars cheaper than the entry-level 16-inch MacBook Pro, with shipments to customers to begin soon.

ExxonMobil is looking to replicate Guyana's oil and gas boom off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago, the company's head of global exploration John Ardill told the Financial Times in an interview Tuesday. Ardill said development in Trinidad is moving much faster than in Guyana, with Exxon negotiating a production-sharing agreement with the government within seven months, about half the usual time, and securing a vessel to begin acquiring seismic data for a prospect in just six months instead of the year typically needed. Trinidad's crude output peaked in the late 1970s and has fallen steadily since, and a revival could ease strain on the country's finances, which have been hit by shortages of liquefied natural gas feedstocks in recent years. Ardill said Exxon will decide where to drill its first well by mid-2027, and that if the well succeeds the company can deploy the Guyana development model along with AI tools developed there. Exxon is also looking to apply techniques used in the U.S. to other shale-rich areas, having brought delegations from Azerbaijan and Algeria to the Permian Basin, with Ardill describing Azerbaijan as an oil play and Algeria as a gas play, both huge and absolutely world-class.

PTT Public Company Limited reported on the oil market situation for the week of October 5-9, 2026, that the G7 group agreed to release a total of 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from strategic petroleum reserves, beginning immediately over a period of four months, to ease tight global oil supply. As a result, average weekly crude prices declined, with Brent crude at 102.09 US dollars per barrel, down 0.63 dollars; West Texas crude at 91.28 dollars, down 1.82 dollars; and Dubai crude at 107.84 dollars, down 5.22 dollars. Meanwhile, 95-octane gasoline stood at 150.64 dollars, up 4.30 dollars, and diesel at 174.30 dollars, down 2.45 dollars. On the supply side, the seven core OPEC+ members, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, decided to keep crude oil production unchanged for November 2026. Currently, the seven countries produce a combined 25 million barrels per day, still about 5 million barrels per day below the level before the war broke out in February. In addition, negotiations between the United States and Iran remain inconclusive, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi proposing to allow agencies to inspect nuclear facilities that were attacked, in exchange for the easing of US economic sanctions and the port blockade. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Defense is sending the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt and an amphibious assault group with about 10,000 troops to join forces in the Middle East, reflecting that the war could escalate. The war between Russia and Ukraine has also intensified, with Russian forces on October 3 heavily attacking Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities using drones and missiles, targeting energy and telecommunications infrastructure and, for the first time, a bridge across the Dnipro River that links the eastern and western parts of Kyiv.

Middle East oil flows have rebounded to roughly 80% of pre-war volumes, Shell CEO Wael Sawan said Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Sawan called the recovery a testament to the region's resilience in maintaining supply commitments to global markets, and said his assessment is among the most authoritative yet as banks and shipping analytics firms also point to flows approaching pre-conflict levels. He warned, however, that the longer the war continues, the harder it will be for markets to keep managing supply disruptions, noting that flows have not returned to normal and that the crunch would have been worse without reduced Chinese demand and increased production elsewhere. "We have maybe softened the worst impacts of the crisis, but there is only so long that you can continue to do that without further discontinuities emerging," Sawan said, adding that national security cannot exist without energy security.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York market edged only slightly higher on Tuesday, October 6, after falling sharply during the session on reports of increased oil exports from the Middle East and a G7 decision to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, along with a pledge not to impose restrictions on energy exports after pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. November-delivery WTI crude rose 1 cent, or 0.01%, to close at 89.44 dollars per barrel, while December-delivery Brent crude rose 26 cents, or 0.26%, to close at 100.58 dollars per barrel. The chief executive of Vitol said that over the past 7 to 10 days, about 12 million barrels per day of crude and another 2 million barrels per day of refined products were shipped out of the Middle East by tankers. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said volumes shipped through Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline stood at as much as 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning. However, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen continues to worry investors about a possible disruption to oil supply from Saudi Arabia, the region's largest oil exporter. Meanwhile, talks between the United States and Iran remain stalled, and Saudi Arabia's aviation authority said Saudi airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted twice on Monday evening, injuring 3 people and causing damage, though it was limited. Investors are watching today's release of crude stockpiles from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, with analysts expecting crude inventories to rise by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending October 2.

Crude oil prices in global markets fell, with Brent crude dropping below $99 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, sliding below $89 per barrel. As of 9:42 p.m. Thailand time, the November WTI contract was down $1.24, or 1.39%, at $88.19 per barrel, while the December Brent contract was down $1.68, or 1.67%, at $98.64 per barrel. Investors eased concerns about oil supply after shipping data showed crude exports from the Middle East were higher than pre-war levels between the United States and Iran for four days in the last week of September, and the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, or G7, agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves, pledging not to use measures restricting energy exports after being pressured by US President Donald Trump. However, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen continued to raise concerns about possible disruptions to oil supply from Saudi Arabia, while negotiations between the United States and Iran remained deadlocked.

Oil prices edged lower early Tuesday after Saudi Aramco unexpectedly slashed its November crude prices for Asian sales to a six-year low, while raising them slightly for northwest Europe and the Mediterranean. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.3% to $89.16 a barrel by 19:21 ET (23:21 GMT), and Brent oil futures settled down 2% on Monday. Reuters reported last week that Aramco was seen offering deep discounts for oil loaded off Oman to offset record-high freight rates. The cuts came amid growing concerns that overheated crude will dent global demand in the long term, especially as the war in the Middle East showed few signs of easing. Crude fell sharply on Monday amid some signs of improving Middle East exports, while the Group of Seven nations promised to increase supplies by 100 million barrels, though it was unclear whether the new oil would fall under an ongoing emergency release. Gulf oil exports rose to pre-war levels for about half of September, shipping data showed on Monday, driven by Saudi loading from both the Red Sea and the Gulf, and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces retook coastal areas around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from the Iran-backed Houthis this week, though clashes continued and a U.S.-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz remained.

The G7 group agreed to release a combined 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from reserves, pledging not to use energy export restriction measures after being pressured by President Donald Trump. As a result, the West Texas crude contract for November delivery closed at 89.43 dollars per barrel, down 1.68 dollars, or 1.84%, and the North Sea Brent crude contract for December delivery closed at 100.32 dollars per barrel, down 1.93 dollars, or 1.89%. Meanwhile, oil exporters in the Arabian Gulf region have resumed exporting oil at levels higher than before the war broke out in September. Preliminary data from Kpler indicated that the 7-day moving average of crude oil exports from the region stood at 18.3 million barrels per day as of September 30. ASEAN energy ministers are preparing to meet in Manila, the Philippines, this week amid risks from the Middle East war. ASEAN imports more than half of the crude oil for its refineries from the Middle East and is expected to review regional energy security measures under the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, or APSA.

Crude oil futures fell about $2, pressured by rising exports from the Middle East and a release of reserves by the G7. The November contract for New York crude settled at $89.43 a barrel, down $1.68 from the previous session. In the U.S. stock market, the Dow rose for a third straight session and the Nasdaq advanced for a fourth, hitting a record high, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.03 percentage points from the previous session to 5.30%. The December contract for New York gold settled at $4,156.8 a troy ounce, down $5.5 from the previous session, and CME Nikkei 225 futures rose from the Osaka Exchange level to close at 70,130 yen. The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index for September came in at 54.9, below the expected 55.0.

Iran is reviewing U.S. comments on its proposal to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said on Sunday, October 4. Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's largest crude oil exporter, announced it will cut prices for November-loading crude for Asian customers, an unexpected move, while raising prices for customers in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara confirmed on October 5 that Japan has no plans to release additional crude oil from its national reserves, as it has already released supply into the market, even though the G7 countries reached an agreement on Friday, October 2, to release a total of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves. In Japan itself, authorities plan to amend economic security legislation to require companies and organizations holding big data to notify the government before transferring or disclosing sensitive personal information to third parties. Daiwa Securities Group disclosed on October 5 that data on approximately 110,000 customers of its securities brokerage subsidiary, including non-personal information, may have leaked after a server managed by a subcontractor was accessed without authorization. Also on the same day, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivered a policy speech to parliament, pledging to cut the consumption tax on food products without issuing new bonds in order to reassure the markets. In addition, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation announced the arrest of a California woman at Los Angeles International Airport on Sunday, October 4, charging her with acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government after she was found surveilling and following the son of Taiwan's president on the orders of Chinese government officials. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the creation of the Super Intelligence Force, a new federal task force to coordinate government artificial intelligence operations. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced early elections on November 29, acknowledging his government's mistakes after facing heavy pressure from public protests over the housing crisis across the country, and after parliament rejected the emergency decree aimed at addressing the crisis.