EIA raises oil price forecasts after Iran war sends global stocks plunging

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Summary · why it matters

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, has raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next after global oil inventories fell sharply due to the impact of the Iran war on world oil supply. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday, October 6, it said the attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline reflected the risk that global oil supply could be disrupted further. The EIA expects Brent crude to average about 105 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, up 14 dollars from its previous estimate. Meanwhile, U.S. retail diesel prices, which hit a record high last month, are likely to stay above 6 dollars per gallon in October before gradually easing to an average of about 4.50 dollars per gallon in 2027. For the full year 2026, the EIA raised its average Brent crude forecast to about 98 dollars per barrel, up 8% from last month's estimate, and expects the Iran war to cut global oil production in 2026 to 101.1 million barrels per day, down from a record high of 106.3 million barrels per day in 2025, while oil demand will fall from 104.4 million barrels per day to 102.4 million barrels per day. However, the EIA expects the oil market to recover in 2027, with global production rising to a record high of 109.6 million barrels per day and demand increasing to 104.6 million barrels per day, and it expects Brent crude to average about 84 dollars per barrel in 2027, 10 dollars above its previous estimate.

Impact on assets 3

Others▲
⛏Brent Crude Oil Futures
BRENT
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

EIA raised its Brent crude forecast to ~$105/bbl Q4 and ~$98/bbl for 2026 due to Iran-war supply disruptions.

⛏Crude Oil WTI Futures
WTI
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

EIA raised oil price forecasts after the Iran war cut global oil supply and inventories fell sharply, supporting WTI prices.

⛏Heating Oil Futures
HEATOIL
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

EIA expects U.S. retail diesel prices to stay above $6/gallon in October amid the oil supply disruption.