Geopolitics

Pakistan's president declared a state of emergency on October 11 and ordered the suspension of the provincial government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which is run by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI. Khan, a former prime minister, remains in detention. The move immediately stripped the elected provincial administration of its governing powers. Pakistan's presidential office said President Asif Ali Zardari signed off on the recommendation of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif after the federal cabinet approved the measure, citing the provincial government's failure to crack down on the threat from militant Islamist extremists. Zulfikar Bukhari, a close aide to Khan and a PTI spokesman, responded that the decision was utterly absurd and stressed that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government was the only legitimately elected government in the country, warning that the decision would lead to bloodshed and instability. Meanwhile, PTI supporters have held prolonged protests for several days to press for Khan's release and have threatened to march on Islamabad in the coming days. Pakistan's constitution allows the federal government to take over some or all of a provincial government's functions during a state of emergency, but the presidential office has not yet specified how the province will be administered going forward.

Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, disclosed that the Thai delegation is preparing to take part in four key discussions at the international financial gathering, along with a total of 30 bilateral meetings, during the week Thailand hosts the 2026 Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, or the IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings 2026, from 12 to 18 October 2026. The first forum, on 13 October 2026 from 1:30 to 2:30 p.m., is the Thai Ministry of Finance's flagship event, titled Thai MOF Flagship Event: Building Resilience in a Fragmented World, with Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank, and Riikka Purra, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Finland, joining the discussion. The same day from 3:00 to 4:00 p.m., Ekniti will take the stage at the IMF APD: Thailand Special Seminar Bangkok 1991-2026 alongside Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, Vitai Ratanakorn, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, Naronchai Akrasanee, Chairman of the Strategic Policy Institute Foundation, and Sutthiphant Chirathivat, Professor Emeritus at Chulalongkorn University. Then on 15 October 2026 from 3:30 to 4:30 p.m., he will join the IMF Flagship Global Debate with Kristalina Georgieva, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Minister of Economy and Finance of Greece and President of the Eurogroup, Aliko Dangote, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Group, and Danny Quah, Professor of Economics at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. On 17 October 2026 from 2:30 to 3:30 p.m., he will take the stage at Bangkok Dialogue Notes to summarise the key messages Thailand is conveying to the global community and to advance its role as a Trusted Connector. As for the 30 bilateral meetings with economic leaders and representatives of international financial institutions, the aim is to strengthen ties, exchange policies for coping with crises, open channels for cooperation, and build on opportunities in investment and economic development. The Thai government sees hosting this event as a chance to use its international financial, fiscal, and economic networks to connect Thailand to the global economy and deliver long-term benefits for the Thai economy.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels fired missiles at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the third time in a week, killing at least 12 people and injuring 309. It is the deadliest attack on Saudi Arabia in more than 10 years. Saudi civil aviation authorities said the attack on October 10 killed 12 people immediately: four Saudis, two Bangladeshis, and one civilian each from the United States, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Sudan and Egypt. Saudi Arabia's threat warning system failed to send an alert before the incident, after two earlier attacks on the same airport killed four people. The Saudi-led coalition announced it would take decisive retaliatory measures, while a Houthi spokesman posted on the X platform declaring success in shutting down Riyadh airport and warning airlines worldwide to avoid Saudi airspace, designating the area a military operations zone. US President Donald Trump said at the White House that the United States is considering the possibility of sending troops to join Saudi Arabia in striking the Houthis, and will speed up a decision on action quickly after receiving the latest attack report. The fallout from the attack forced all airlines to divert flights away from Riyadh and temporarily suspend operations at the main airport serving the capital's population of more than 8 million. Data from the Flightradar24 website showed that all flights heading to Riyadh were cancelled or rerouted, with only military helicopters hovering over the airport.

With the US midterm elections set for the 3rd of next month, the Trump administration is blatantly pushing 'giveaway' policies. President Trump has said that if the ruling Republican Party takes both the House and Senate, he will hand out 5,000 dollars, about 790,000 yen, to every adult citizen, and he aims to gain an advantage in the election campaign by championing bold measures against high prices. Since September, the administration has also proposed paying 90 dollars, about 14,000 yen, per person to 20 million enrollees in public health insurance for the elderly, and amid a surge of opposition over the construction of artificial intelligence data centers, a plan to hand out cash to nearby residents has also emerged. According to a CNN poll, only 27 percent of respondents said they approve of Trump's handling of the economy. According to the bipartisan think tank the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the cost is expected to reach 1.2 trillion dollars, about 190 trillion yen, roughly 1.5 times the cash payments implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic, and it could trigger higher inflation and rising interest rates.

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, in his capacity as Director of the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command, chaired a meeting of the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command at the C.S. Pattani Hotel in Mueang Pattani District, Pattani Province, to monitor the situation and relief efforts for flood victims in the southern region. Provincial governors from the southern provinces attended the meeting. The Prime Minister said that according to forecasts from the Meteorological Department, many provinces remain at risk of flooding from heavy rainfall expected to cover almost every province in the south, from Phetchaburi Province down to Malaysia, from now until the end of October 2026, with no sign of easing. It is therefore necessary to rehearse and prepare, with emphasis on advance forecasting, preparing shelters to evacuate residents, especially vulnerable groups, bedridden patients and the elderly, as well as safeguarding the food supply chain, including raw materials, fresh food, vegetable oil, gas and seasonings, and coordinating with food and transport operators. Disaster-response machinery, water pumps, pumping equipment, motorboats and vehicles must be prepared in advance. The Prime Minister issued 7 guidelines for preparing to manage the flood situation in the south: monitoring and assessing the situation to designate risk areas and watch points; inspecting and improving drainage systems; preparing personnel and resources through integration between areas; evacuating and warning the public; monitoring, following up and reporting results to the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and the Ministry of Interior; publicizing clear emergency reporting channels; and establishing readiness centers for each agency to integrate operations in a unified manner.

Dr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, together with senior officials of the Ministry of Finance, welcomed Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, on the occasion of Thailand hosting the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund Boards of Governors meeting, or IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, from 12–18 October 2026 at the special reception room at AOT, Suvarnabhumi Airport, on 9 October 2026. Dr. Ekniti said this meeting will generate immediate circulation of approximately 1.05–2.25 billion baht in the Thai economy from more than 15,000 participants, who will stay an average of 7–10 days and spend an average of 10,000–15,000 baht per person per day through spending in tourism, hotels, restaurants, and community products. The government will also use this opportunity to present its readiness in digital infrastructure, clean energy, and investment incentives to attract foreign direct investment in key target industries such as artificial intelligence technology and electric vehicles. Previously, Dr. Ekniti stated that the government has prepared venues and infrastructure equivalent to the highest international standards, combining technology, digital innovation, and Thai cultural identity in the form of Thai Hospitality in every dimension of the welcome.

Ireland, in its capacity as president of the Council of the European Union, has proposed a new draft long-term budget for the years 2028-2034, reducing the total by about 141 billion euros, or nearly 8%, from the European Commission's original plan. This brings the overall budget framework down to 1.62 trillion euros, from the 1.76 trillion euros the European Commission had set when calculated in 2025 constant prices, or 1.98 trillion euros at current prices. The reduction particularly affects the budget categories for competitiveness and security. The new proposal aims to bring the positions of all 27 EU member states closer together, after they remained divided over the size of the long-term budget framework for the coming seven years. The new draft was put forward ahead of next week's European Council meeting, where member state leaders will again discuss the long-term budget, with the goal of reaching an agreement by the end of 2026.

Negotiating officials from the United States, Ukraine and Europe held six hours of talks in Miami, Florida, on Friday, October 9, to draft a joint proposal to end the war in Ukraine, aiming to reach an agreement within the coming weeks before presenting it to Russia for consideration, in a bid to make diplomatic progress before winter sets in. The talks were attended by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, representatives of the United States, along with Ukrainian officials, representatives from Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO. Key issues discussed included security guarantees that the United States and European countries might give Ukraine after the war ends, an economic recovery plan, and the path toward European Union, or EU, membership. Territorial issues were also discussed, but no details of the proposal under consideration were disclosed, and the negotiating team also discussed the possibility of creating a future security framework between Europe and Russia to promote long-term regional stability. The push for peace talks comes amid differences over the US government's approach to Russia, with US President Donald Trump announcing that Russia had agreed to ship diesel to global markets to help lower fuel prices, while the Trump administration temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel exports, a move criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of the US Congress. Zelensky warned that revenue from fuel sales would help support Russia's military operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, signaled that an immediate return to peace talks was unlikely, citing Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow. The negotiating team is now trying to establish a common position before beginning discussions with Russia on an agreement to end the war.

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, delivered a speech at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore on 7 October, opening the curtain on the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. She identified three major challenges shaping the direction of the global economy: the surge in AI technology, an energy price crisis that remains at elevated levels, and public debt climbing to a record high. She noted that AI hardware and related technology products account for more than one tenth of global goods trade, and warned that AI is accelerating the widening of global economic inequality. Oil prices remain at around 100 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude futures indicate prices will stay high through 2027. Global public debt is meanwhile nearing levels last seen after the Second World War and looks set to soon exceed 100 percent of world GDP. For the meetings hosted by Thailand from 12 to 18 October, Dr Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, said Thailand will present the Bangkok Blueprint, a blueprint for modern digital finance setting out 12 practices for financial institutions and countries worldwide to counter online financial threats and cybercrime. He expects it to generate roughly 1.05 billion to 2.25 billion baht in immediate circulation in the Thai economy, from more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries.

A US official said on the 9th that Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to skip the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which open in Bangkok, Thailand, on the 12th. Bessent will prioritize his domestic schedule. With midterm elections coming up on the 3rd of next month, he is expected to address a pileup of economic problems, including soaring diesel prices and rising long-term interest rates.

The United States has announced direct sanctions against the International Criminal Court, measures broader than the previous US sanctions targeting ICC prosecutors and judges, and also covering private companies that provide services to the ICC. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed admiration for President Donald Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for their decision to impose these measures, stating that the ICC is threatening the sovereignty of nations and democracies worldwide. Rubio said President Trump will not allow the ICC to prosecute Americans, and that the United States will prohibit transactions with this court, cut off its sources of resources, and undermine its ability to operate. Meanwhile, Nazhat Shameem Khan, a deputy prosecutor of the ICC, condemned the measures as an attempt to undermine international rule of law, but affirmed that the ICC will continue its work in every investigation and every prosecution. In November 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, the former Israeli defense minister, on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip. The ICC currently has 125 member states, including all European Union members and all NATO members except the United States and Turkey, with its headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands.

The US government announced sanctions against the International Criminal Court, or ICC, just hours after Navanethem "Navi" Pillay, a former ICC judge, won the Nobel Peace Prize for her work in promoting peace and international law. Jørgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, said Pillay played a key role in ensuring that war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide are prosecuted under the law. The United States has previously imposed sanctions on ICC prosecutors and judges, but the measures announced today are far broader in scope, including penalties on private companies that provide services directly to the ICC. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement that President Trump will never allow the International Criminal Court to prosecute Americans, and that the United States will bar transactions with this kangaroo court, cut off its resources and undermine its ability to operate. ICC Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan condemned the sanctions, saying they are aimed at undermining the rule of law at the international level and will not be able to stop the court's work. The ICC currently has 125 member states, including all European Union members and all NATO members except the United States and Turkey, and is headquartered in The Hague in the Netherlands.

The US Treasury Department announced on the 9th that Treasury Secretary Bessent has appointed Judy Shelton as an adviser focusing on China. Shelton is a figure whom US President Trump once nominated as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and she has led the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the National Endowment for Democracy, and also served as a researcher at the Independent Institute and the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. During Trump's first administration, her nomination to the vacant Fed board seat stalled in confirmation amid bipartisan concerns that her seemingly partisan stance could undermine the Fed's independence. The Treasury Department said in a statement that Shelton will advise the Secretary on monetary policy, with a particular focus on assessing China's financial conditions.

Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, and China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held ministerial-level trade talks in Beijing on the 9th, in which the EU demanded that China curb exports of automobiles and other goods in order to reduce its trade deficit with China. The talks ran for two days starting on the 8th and were the first in-person meeting in about three months. Ahead of the talks, the EU argued for limiting the export volume of Chinese-made plug-in hybrid vehicles, and France and Germany jointly proposed a new system to restrict access to the EU market aimed primarily at China. The Chinese side pushed back, calling this "protectionism," and appears to have asked the EU to lift export restrictions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. China's rare earth regulations were also a point of contention.

Lieutenant General Adul Bunthamcharoen, Minister of Defence, visited Rom Klao community in Lat Krabang district and Floraville village in Nong Chok district for a third consecutive day as flood conditions began to ease, ordering an accelerated cleanup of garbage and flood-damaged items to restore the areas. At Rom Klao community, heavy machinery has been mobilised to haul away debris and leftover waste, with a target of clearing the area within two days. At Floraville village in Nong Chok district, water levels have begun to trend downward thanks to accelerated drainage measures, although some spots remain flooded. Relevant agencies are preparing to add more water pumps and support equipment to speed drainage out of the area and ease the hardship of more than 1,800 households. The Defence Ministry confirmed it will integrate its work closely with Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and related agencies, and will keep monitoring rain and risk factors to prevent repeated flood impacts in at-risk areas.

Japan's Defense Ministry announced on the 9th that it will conduct research and study aimed at speeding up the launch of rockets that would carry new satellites into space, in preparation for attacks on the satellites used by the Self-Defense Forces. It began soliciting proposals from private companies on the 9th for technologies related to rocket manufacturing and launch methods, and after selecting operators in February next year, it will examine transport capacity, cost, and production systems. In recent years, the United States, China, and Russia have been advancing the military use of space, and the importance of the space domain in the security field is growing; the Defense Ministry is also moving quickly on responses, including formulating a space domain defense guideline last year, but shortening the time needed to restore functions when a satellite is lost has become a challenge. As specific research themes, it envisions stockpiling components and manufacturing parts using 3D printers, and for launch methods it will also consider sea-based, airborne, and vehicle-mounted or mobile options.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Russia is ready to do everything it can to help Iran resolve conflicts in the region. The meeting took place in the city of Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan. The Kremlin said Putin noted that Iran has shown concrete efforts to end the conflict and has put forward new proposals for a peaceful settlement. Putin said relations between Russia and Iran continue to develop under the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed jointly earlier in 2025. Trade between the two countries grew by more than 21% last year and has maintained its growth trend in the first seven months of this year. Pezeshkian thanked Putin for Russia's support, saying ties between the two countries continue to expand in trade, economic and humanitarian areas. He criticized the United States for pursuing unilateral policies, saying Iran hopes to end the war as quickly as possible while ensuring that Iran's rights are respected. The Iranian leader also said Iran has exchanged initiatives with the United States and has revised and improved the U.S. proposals, and that the two sides will continue discussions through mediation once those initiatives are finalized.

The US Department of Justice said on Thursday, October 8, that it is seizing seven internet domains linked to a hacking group working with Integrity Technology, a Chinese information technology company, to disrupt attacks on critical infrastructure systems. In a statement, the department said the domains were used to scan for vulnerabilities and breach critical infrastructure systems in the United States and abroad, and that the operation was the second time the United States has publicly moved to disrupt infrastructure the company uses for cyberattacks. Earlier, in September 2024, the Justice Department announced it had taken down the company's botnet under a court order, after finding a network of more than 250,000 compromised consumer devices in the United States and around the world. Christopher Wray, who was director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation at the time, said Integrity Technology was behind a Chinese hacking group known as Flax Typhoon, which gathers intelligence and scouts targets for Chinese security agencies. The Chinese Embassy in Washington has not commented, while the Chinese government has consistently denied allegations that it carries out hacking operations.

Malaysia's Education Minister Fadhlina Sidek ordered schools closed today across Malacca, Negeri Sembilan, Selangor, as well as Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and the Rompin district in Pahang, leaving more than 2 million students nationwide at home as toxic haze from wildfires in Indonesia spread across the region. The Malaysian Education Ministry announced that schools in areas with high pollution readings for three consecutive days will also close on Monday, October 12. The closure order came just hours after Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar, the King of Malaysia, called for action, saying the health and safety of children should come first. Just two days earlier, Malaysia had ordered the closure of schools, including about 200 kindergartens and childcare centres, in the Batu Pahat district of Johor on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto had agreed to take the necessary steps to address the source of the haze. Singapore was ranked the most polluted city in the world according to IQAir data, raising concerns about the impact on this weekend's annual Formula One race, which is expected to draw at least 300,000 local and foreign visitors.

Thailand and Timor-Leste have agreed to elevate their relations and drive cooperation in five key areas following bilateral talks between Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste. Government spokesman Ekapop Pienpiset disclosed the outcome of the discussions. Both sides agreed to expedite the conclusion of an air services agreement to pave the way for direct flights between Bangkok and Dili in the near future. Thailand also affirmed its readiness to be a food security partner for Timor-Leste and to jointly facilitate the export of Thai agricultural goods and processed food products to Timor-Leste, as well as to speed up the conclusion of a memorandum of understanding on rice trade. On development, since 2001 Thailand has provided more than 800 scholarships and training opportunities to personnel from Timor-Leste, and both sides will accelerate the finalisation of a three-year development cooperation plan for 2026 to 2028. Both sides also agreed to hold joint activities to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the establishment of Thailand-Timor-Leste diplomatic relations in 2027.

Russian prosecutors have filed an extradition request for senior officials of the International Criminal Court, or ICC, including ICC President Tomoko Akane, who is Japanese. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office sent the request to the Netherlands and other countries seeking the handover of nine ICC officials who were convicted in absentia by a Russian court last December. The dispute stems from 2023, when the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior officials, alleging responsibility for the unlawful deportation and transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia. Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki said at a press conference in Tokyo that Russia's move is unjustifiable and unacceptable, adding that the Japanese government intends to respond appropriately, including by filing additional representations with Russia, and will maintain close communication with the ICC and other member states. The request comes as the ICC faces pressure from the United States, a Japanese ally, whose government under President Donald Trump announced sanctions on senior ICC leaders, including Akane, last August. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi disclosed that she and President Trump exchanged candid views on the ICC during a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last September.

Ms. Lalida Periswiwatana, Deputy Government Spokesperson, disclosed that the government is pressing ahead with expanding trade and investment opportunities in European and Middle Eastern markets through the Thailand-European Union Free Trade Agreement, or Thailand-EU FTA, and by advancing the Thailand-United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or Thailand-UAE CEPA. Ms. Supajee Suthumpun, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce, disclosed that the 10th round of Thailand-EU FTA negotiations, held from 28 September to 6 October 2026 in Phuket province, saw significant progress on the text of many chapters, such as sanitary and phytosanitary measures, energy and raw materials, and rules of origin. Meanwhile, market access for goods, trade in services, investment, and government procurement made progress in the exchange of offers, though outstanding issues remain to be discussed further. Both sides continue to aim to conclude the negotiations within 2026. On the Middle East market, Ms. Supajee held talks with the UAE Minister of Foreign Trade on 23 September 2026 at the UAE Mission to the United Nations to follow up on progress in preparing the Thailand-UAE CEPA, and to discuss expanding investment cooperation and business linkages between the private sectors of the two countries. According to Ministry of Commerce data for 2025, the European Union is Thailand's 4th largest trading partner, while the United Arab Emirates is its 8th largest trading partner and its number one trading partner among the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, countries and the Middle East. Thailand's key exports in both markets include gems and jewelry, air conditioners and parts, and computers, equipment, and parts. Ms. Lalida stressed that both agreements are still under negotiation, so operators should prepare in advance, but cannot yet use new tariff benefits under these agreements at this time. This applies especially to small and medium-sized enterprises, or SMEs, which should study product and destination-country information, check import standards and conditions, production costs, and prepare evidence of the origin of raw materials and production processes to support the use of benefits under the agreements once they take effect. They must also clearly distinguish between the progress of negotiations, signing, and the entry into force of an agreement, and should not use proposals on market access and rules of origin that are still under discussion as final conditions for calculating selling prices or concluding trade contracts until details are officially announced. At the same time, the push for the Thailand-UAE CEPA is an economic cooperation specifically between Thailand and the United Arab Emirates, and does not mean that Thai goods will receive trade benefits covering all countries in the Middle East or the Arab world.

The German government has raised its forecast for economic growth in 2026 to 1.3% from a previous 0.5%, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience despite pressure from soaring energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Katherina Reiche, Germany's Minister for Economic Affairs, said in the government's autumn economic forecast report that Germany's economy, the largest in Europe, is expected to recover steadily this year, driven by exports and public spending. Reiche said the German economy expanded better than expected in the first half of 2026, even as it was affected by conflict in the Middle East and higher energy costs. However, the recovery remains uneven, with private consumption likely to stay sluggish as inflation driven by energy prices has eroded households' purchasing power. At the same time, low capacity utilisation and geopolitical volatility continue to weigh on private investment. For the longer-term outlook, the government expects growth to slow to 1.1% in 2027 and to 0.6% in 2028. The government also warned that the economic trajectory will depend heavily on the situations in the Middle East and Ukraine. A lasting end to the conflicts would help push energy prices lower and accelerate the economic recovery, but if the situations drag on, they will inevitably add further pressure on businesses and households.