Trade policy office warns surging energy prices are driving up export costs for petrochemicals, seafood and steel

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Summary · why it matters

Nanthapong Jiralertpong, director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, disclosed that geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed the average Brent crude price in the first nine months of 2026 to 88.70 US dollars per barrel, up 26.7% from the same period a year earlier, and that the pace accelerated to 102.02 US dollars per barrel in September. As a result, in the first eight months of 2026 the value of Thailand's fuel imports rose 40.1%, while the baht weakened from an average of 31.27 baht per US dollar in January to 33.22 baht per US dollar in September. Energy costs have passed through into the manufacturing sector, with the most sensitive branch being land freight transport, followed by petrochemicals, synthetic fibres and yarn spinning, and ceramic tiles. Branches with embedded energy costs from upstream raw materials include processed seafood, steel products, plastic products, tyres and clothing, all of which are key Thai exports. In the first nine months of 2026, the producer price index rose 6.2%, while headline inflation rose 1.54%. Looking ahead, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent crude to average around 105 US dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter, while PTT Group expects Dubai crude to run between 95 and 105 US dollars per barrel in October and November. The Ministry of Commerce will closely monitor product cost structures to prevent unjustified price increases.

Impact on assets 4

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲
Others▲
⛏Brent Crude Oil Futures
BRENT
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Middle East conflict drove Brent average to $88.70/bbl in first nine months and $102.02 in September, with further gains forecast.

⛏Crude Oil WTI Futures
WTI
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Middle East geopolitical conflict pushed Brent to $102/bbl in September, with EIA forecasting ~$105 in Q4, lifting crude prices broadly.