Iran has escalated attacks on oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the fragile recovery of crude exports from the Persian Gulf. Nearly 20 commercial vessels, most of them oil tankers, were attacked over the past month while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, or waters off the coast of Oman, according to data from the US-led coalition's Joint Maritime Information Center. Analysts say Iran attacked roughly 2 out of every 100 ships crossing the strait in the third quarter. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz now depend on a major US military commitment to escort tankers along the southern route off the coast of Oman. Data from Kpler shows crude shipments averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day in the week ending Saturday, roughly 23% below the pre-war baseline of 13.5 million barrels per day, while Windward estimates crude volumes through the strait averaged 9 to 10 million barrels per day, against a pre-war baseline of 14.5 million barrels per day. The cost of shipping crude from the Persian Gulf to China has surged to 1 million dollars per day for each tanker, and since July at least 9 crew members have been killed, 18 injured, and 3 more are missing, according to the International Maritime Organization. Brent crude prices remain hovering near 100 dollars a barrel even as more crude escapes the Strait of Hormuz, and on Monday Iran's Revolutionary Guard radioed a tanker transiting the strait, ordering it to turn back or face attack, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center. The vessel complied.
Escalated attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz threaten Persian Gulf crude exports and keep Brent near $100 on supply-disruption fears.
Iran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt crude flows, cutting shipments ~23% below pre-war baseline and tightening global oil supply, bullish for WTI.
