ConocoPhillips

Venture Global has signed a new long-term LNG sales deal with ConocoPhillips while drawing a cut to its Q3 adjusted EBITDA estimate from RBC Capital Markets. The Sales and Purchase Agreement commits ConocoPhillips to buy 1.0 million tonnes per annum of LNG from 2030 for 20 years. RBC Capital Markets reduced its Q3 adjusted EBITDA estimate for Venture Global, citing basis differential headwinds, while maintaining a positive view on the stock. Venture Global shares trade at US$13.16, having pulled back around 14% on a 1 month share price basis after an 87% year to date share price return, with a 1 year total shareholder return of about 40%. The most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $16.67 per share, implying the stock is 21% undervalued, though that view could fray if Calcasieu Pass arbitration outcomes absorb more cash than expected or if LNG pricing weakens faster than analysts currently model.

The Trump administration is preparing to weaken Biden-era methane controls on oil and gas operations, with the Environmental Protection Agency targeting requirements for marginal wells, large-leak detection and associated-gas flaring. Speaking Wednesday at the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association's annual meeting in Santa Fe, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the proposal would address the burden on marginal wells and oil and gas operators in general, and the agency will also seek to rescind the Super Emitter Program, which lets certified third parties identify major methane releases and requires operators to investigate EPA notifications. EPA data show low-producing wells accounted for just 7% of U.S. oil and gas production in 2021 but roughly 60% of natural-gas production emissions and 40% of oil-production emissions. Reuters reported EPA estimates the planned rollback could save $45 billion annually, and the agency will also revisit rules governing associated gas, which producers often burn through flaring when they cannot capture or transport it. The Biden administration's 2023 methane rule sought to phase out routine flaring at new oil wells and tighten controls on new and existing sources, and EPA estimated that rule would prevent 58 million tons of methane emissions between 2024 and 2038, roughly an 80% reduction versus projected emissions without the standards. Publicly traded U.S. oil and gas producers that could see lower compliance costs include Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum Corp., Diamondback Energy Inc. and Chord Energy Corp., all of which have significant U.S. onshore production footprints; the Sierra Club called the rollback foolish and short-sighted, while Zeldin said EPA is responding to producer concerns that the rules are unworkable.

BP plc is conducting a company-wide review of its asset portfolio to identify and dispose of assets that do not fit its strategic objectives or dilute margins, management said on its latest earnings call. Assets will be judged on capital efficiency and their ability to generate returns, with the aim of improving the quality of earnings and cash flow over the long term. The sale of the Gelsenkirchen refinery and BP's decision to sell its Austria mobility and convenience business underscore that approach, and the company said it will invest only in projects expected to deliver competitive returns. BP does not view the sell-off of non-core assets as merely a cost-cutting program, but as a way to free capital tied to complex, lower-return assets and reinvest the proceeds in higher-margin businesses. Separately, ConocoPhillips said on its second-quarter earnings call that it had reached its $5 billion asset-sale target ahead of schedule, while Phillips 66 is reshaping its portfolio around core markets through retail asset sales in Germany and Austria, the idling of the Los Angeles refinery and the completed acquisition of Lindsey Oil Refinery and logistics operations in April 2026.

ConocoPhillips has signed a long-term agreement with Venture Global to purchase 1 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year, with deliveries beginning in 2030 and running for 20 years. Venture Global said it looks forward to supporting ConocoPhillips in expanding its global LNG portfolio. ConocoPhillips expects LNG demand to double by 2050 and is building its LNG portfolio toward a targeted 10-15 million tons per annum. In the second quarter, the company's Qatar LNG operations were affected by the conflict in the Middle East, with the Ras Laffan plant largely shut down, though ConocoPhillips said the NFE and NFS projects in Qatar were progressing well despite the conflict.

Canada, Alberta and five major oil sands producers signed a trilateral Memorandum of Understanding in July 2026 linking expanded production capacity to historic investment in carbon capture and new export infrastructure. Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy, Imperial Oil and ConocoPhillips Canada committed to developing the Pathways Carbon Capture and Storage project, a shared infrastructure initiative targeting approximately 6 million tonnes of CO2 capture annually by 2035, rising to 16 million tonnes per year by 2045. The MOU represents conditional commitments rather than executed projects, with definitive binding agreements targeted for 15 November 2026 that will determine whether fiscal terms make expansion economically viable. Alberta currently produces approximately four million barrels per day, and the provincial government has stated its aspiration to double that figure within a decade, though growth remains contingent on CCS cost allocation, carbon pricing treatment and available subsidies. Final investment decisions on Pathways are not expected until late 2027 or early 2028, and construction could commence as early as September 2027, contingent on all approvals.

ConocoPhillips is drawing investor attention ahead of its upcoming earnings report, with expectations for higher earnings per share and revenue than the prior year and a current Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). The company is trading on a lower forward P/E ratio than its industry peers, which some analysts interpret as possible undervaluation even as estimates edge higher. A recent announcement tied to this story is the Alaska LNG phase 1 precedent gas sales agreement with Glenfarne Alaska LNG, which underpins a 30 year framework for pipeline and export facilities alongside ConocoPhillips' broader LNG ambitions. ConocoPhillips' narrative projects $68.0 billion revenue and $11.4 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 1.8% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.1 billion earnings increase from $9.3 billion today, while the most optimistic analysts assume revenues near US$70,300,000,000 and earnings around US$11,900,000,000 by 2029. Those forecasts yield a $146.08 fair value, a 14% upside to the current price.

ConocoPhillips has sold 43,000 net acres in South Texas for $1.2 billion, part of the company's ongoing asset pruning after its Marathon Oil acquisition. NGP-backed Ensign Natural Resources II bought the Eagle Ford position in a July transaction. For mineral owners underneath those acres, the operator may change while the royalty checks keep coming. Under Social Security Administration guidance, nonoperating oil and gas royalties generally do not count as earnings under the retirement earnings test, so a mineral owner can collect royalties and early benefits at the same time, while a working interest that shares in well development costs is treated as a business and can be subject to the test. Royalties remain taxable ordinary income and can push up to 85% of Social Security benefits into taxable income above the $34,000 threshold for single filers.

Occidental Petroleum posted the largest analyst estimate beat among the five diversified upstream exploration and production stocks tracked, reporting $8.33 billion in revenue, up 57.1% year on year and 15.3% above consensus. As a group, the five diversified upstream E&P stocks beat analysts' consensus revenue estimates by 9.7% in an exceptional second quarter, and their share prices have risen 15.6% on average since the results. ExxonMobil reported $116 billion in revenue, up 42.3% year on year and 6.8% above expectations, while Chevron, the weakest performer against estimates in the group, reported $70.06 billion, up 56.3% and 6.2% ahead of consensus. Devon Energy delivered the fastest revenue growth among its peers at 67.4%, reaching $6.89 billion and topping expectations by 10.3%, and ConocoPhillips reported $19.52 billion, up 32.4% and 9.6% above estimates, the slowest growth in the group. Occidental Petroleum shares are up 17.9% since reporting and trade at $63.45, ExxonMobil is up 7.9% at $169.40, Chevron is up 13.1% at $217.43, Devon Energy is up 16.5% at $51.34, and ConocoPhillips is up 22.8% at $141.27.

U.S. stock futures fell early Tuesday, with Dow futures down 0.8%, S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.1%, as markets reopened after the Labor Day holiday amid U.S.-Iran tensions and U.S.-Canada trade disputes. Energy stocks rose in premarket trading after Iran warned it could target Gulf oil and gas infrastructure, with Exxon Mobil up 1.8%, Chevron up 1.7%, ConocoPhillips up 1.6%, Diamondback Energy and Marathon Petroleum each up 1.1%, and Valero Energy up 1.6%. Eaton shares gained more than 3% after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $515 from $450, citing strong sales growth and expected margin improvement. Everpure rose 2.5% after being added to the S&P 500, replacing Builders FirstSource, while Shake Shack rose about 1% after RBC initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and an $89 price target. Old Dominion Freight Line climbed 1.3% after reporting revenue per day rose 12.4% in August compared with the same month last year.

The U.S. government's agreement with Venezuela, touted by President Trump as "the biggest oil deal in world history," grants American access to 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan reserves through 100-year concessions across 17 oilfields, brokered with North American Blue Energy Partners. The deal, which includes a 25-year cooperation framework, aims to more than double U.S. oil reserves and lower gasoline prices, while Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, SLB, and Halliburton are positioned to benefit from an estimated $100 billion in infrastructure investment targeting 1.5 million barrels per day. For investors, energy ETFs like XLE, VDE, OIH, and IYE offer exposure to these beneficiaries, with year-to-date gains ranging from 42.2% to 50.7%.

U.S.-listed energy stocks climbed in premarket trading Monday, tracking a more than 2% jump in oil prices after American forces struck an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran retaliated. Brent crude rose 3.5% to $91.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate also gained 3.5% to $86.30 a barrel. In turn, energy stocks rallied, with Chevron up 1.7%, Exxon Mobil rising 1.5%, Occidental Petroleum advancing 1.8%, ConocoPhillips gaining 1.3%, Halliburton climbing 2.5%, and SLB rising 1.7%. Refiners also participated, with Marathon Petroleum up 0.6% and Phillips 66 gaining 1%. U.S. forces struck two missile launchers on Iran's Larak Island on Sunday, marking the first confirmed American strikes on Iran since late July, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by striking two U.S. air bases in Jordan. President Trump added to the confusion with a social media post claiming Iran's Kharg Island energy hub was being "blown to smithereens," but Iran denied any strike occurred and said oil operations there were continuing normally. Efforts to end the conflict remain stalled as international mediators work to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carried roughly one-fifth of global oil supply before fighting broke out at the end of February. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters that Washington is likely to roll out new secondary sanctions against Iran on a weekly basis going forward.

The U.S. is in discussions with Venezuela to take an ownership stake in its vast oil resources, a deal that would more than double America's oil reserves, according to Axios. The proposed agreement would give the U.S. a stake in at least 17 of Venezuela's most promising oil and gas fields, holding an estimated 90 billion barrels of proven reserves—nearly double the U.S.'s current reserves and less than a third of Venezuela's total, which at around 300 billion barrels are the world's largest. Chevron, which has operated in Venezuela for over a century, is the clear frontrunner, having recently consolidated its heavy oil position and boosted output to over 250,000 barrels per day, with plans to grow production by 50% within two years. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which left Venezuela after nationalization, are evaluating a return, with ConocoPhillips seeking to collect $12 billion in arbitration awards and Exxon reportedly in talks to acquire rights to up to six fields. While the deal is not final, it could be a needle-mover for these oil companies.

The owners of the 800-mile Trans-Alaska Pipeline System are seeking to renew its federal land authorization more than seven years before it expires, aiming to ensure the Trump administration makes the determination rather than his successor. The Interior Department has launched a formal review of the reauthorization application from Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, which operates the pipeline on behalf of owners Hilcorp Energy, ConocoPhillips, and Exxon Mobil. If successful, the bid would result in 30 more years of federal land authorizations, offering more certainty for a critical piece of U.S. oil infrastructure. The effort coincides with the Interior Department's preparation to ease environmental review requirements for some oil and gas exploration in Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve, part of Trump's push to speed energy development in the Arctic.

ConocoPhillips' head of global operations Kirk Johnson said Tuesday at the ONS conference in Norway that drilling for more oil and gas in Arctic regions is inevitable despite criticism of exploring in harsh northern environments. Johnson said activity is going to move north, citing resource development and chasing new opportunities, and that Norway's continued opportunity to expand north makes it an inevitability for the company. Norway's Energy Minister Terje Aasland told Reuters this week the country will continue developing Barents Sea resources despite EU support for a moratorium on Arctic hydrocarbons. Johnson also said Alaska's Willow project is about 50% complete and that the time from exploration and appraisal to development could take up to 15 years.

Iraq is seeking to more than double its oil production to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day within six years, and three major U.S. energy companies are positioned to benefit. Chevron has signed memorandums of understanding for the West Qurna 2 and Nassiriya oil fields, with Iraq wanting Chevron to nearly double West Qurna 2's production to between 750,000 and 800,000 barrels per day. ConocoPhillips recently agreed to buy a 42% interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk, supporting redevelopment of four large-scale fields in northern Iraq, and is part of a consortium potentially developing the Akkas gas field. ExxonMobil signed an agreement last year to develop the Majnoon oilfield, which holds an estimated 38 billion barrels of oil in place, after leaving Iraq in 2023.

Diversified upstream E&P stocks delivered a strong second quarter, with the five companies tracked beating analysts' consensus revenue estimates by 9.7% as a group. ExxonMobil reported revenues of $116 billion, up 42.3% year over year and 6.8% above expectations, while Occidental Petroleum posted the biggest beat at 15.3% with revenues of $8.33 billion, up 57.1%. Chevron's revenues of $70.06 billion rose 56.3% and beat by 6.2%, Devon Energy's $6.89 billion was up 67.4% and beat by 10.3%, and ConocoPhillips' $19.52 billion rose 32.4% and beat by 9.6%. Share prices for the group have risen 10.9% on average since the latest earnings results.

ConocoPhillips reported its best quarterly results since 2022 and announced that CFO Andy O'Brien will succeed Ryan Lance as CEO on September 1. Adjusted profit came in at $3.24 a share, well ahead of the $2.88 Wall Street expected, and revenue jumped 32.4% to $19.5 billion even as production slipped nearly 6% to 2.25 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. O'Brien inherits a $7 billion free cash flow growth pledge through 2029 that depends heavily on the Willow oil project in Alaska, whose price tag has climbed to $9 billion. Rival Exxon Mobil posted its biggest quarterly profit in four years at $14.7 billion, up 67% from the first quarter, but adjusted earnings of $3.52 a share missed the $3.60 estimate and its shares fell 1%. Hedge fund data showed ConocoPhillips holders rising to 74 from 65, while Exxon holders slipped to 94 from 98.

ConocoPhillips delivered second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with revenue of $19.52 billion versus analyst estimates of $17.81 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.24 versus $2.92. CEO Ryan Lance, in his final quarter before retirement, highlighted record Permian Basin production and completion of the company's $5 billion disposition target. Analyst questions focused on the leadership transition to incoming CEO Andrew O'Brien, production ramp in Qatar, capital expenditure trajectory after Willow, and the strategic rationale for expanding LNG offtake in Indonesia. O'Brien confirmed that peak capital expenditures are behind and capital needs will decrease, supporting free cash flow inflection.

ConocoPhillips reported second-quarter 2026 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with revenue rising 32.4% year on year to $19.52 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.24, a 10.8% beat. The company also announced that CEO Ryan Lance will retire in September, with Andrew O'Brien stepping in as President and CEO, and Connie Haines Welsh joining as Chief Financial Officer. Operational highlights included record Permian Basin production surpassing 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, the early completion of a $5 billion asset disposition program, and the securing of two new LNG offtake agreements that bring total offtake to 12 million tonnes per annum. Management expects new low-cost supply opportunities in Iraq and Syria, progress at the Willow project in Alaska, and a growing LNG portfolio to drive a significant free cash flow increase by 2029.

All 12 S&P 500 energy companies that reported earnings this week beat Wall Street's EPS estimates, while nine topped revenue expectations and three missed. Occidental Petroleum posted EPS of $2.40, beating by $0.55, and revenue of $8.33 billion, exceeding forecasts by $1.08 billion. ConocoPhillips reported EPS of $3.24, a $0.30 beat, on revenue of $19.52 billion that missed estimates. Devon Energy delivered EPS of $1.57, beating by $0.16, with revenue of $7.42 billion surpassing expectations by $1.49 billion. ONEOK's EPS of $1.53 beat by $0.13 on revenue of $12.05 billion, a $3.10 billion beat, prompting raised full-year 2026 guidance. Phillips 66 posted EPS of $9.41, a $1.91 beat, on revenue of $52.04 billion, exceeding estimates by $8.00 billion. EOG Resources reported EPS of $5.07, beating by $0.10, with revenue of $8.62 billion topping expectations by $821.75 million. The sector's strong cash flows, disciplined spending, and shareholder returns continued to support performance, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF gaining 28.27% year-to-date, outpacing the broader S&P 500's 12.63% return.

Iran's Parliament is reviewing a bill to permanently ban US, Israeli and other hostile vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, backed by drone and missile strikes in the strait, even as US President Trump claimed a final deal is close. ICE Brent is set to close the week at $83 per barrel. Tehran and Muscat have agreed on coordinates for a proposed shipping corridor giving Iran control over Gulf-bound vessels, but Iranian officials cautioned that key details remain unresolved and the deal alone would not guarantee security.

Several major earnings reports and key labor data are set for Thursday, August 6. Before the market opens, ConocoPhillips will report second-quarter results, with attention on the integration of Marathon Oil, while stronger crude prices are expected to support pricing and production near the upper end of guidance. Warner Bros. Discovery also reports before the open, with analysts expecting the loss of NBA programming to weigh on results, including a roughly 20% decline in linear advertising, though streaming remains a bright spot and the pending Paramount merger will likely dominate the conversation. After the closing bell, Airbnb announces quarterly results, with its push to add boutique and independent hotels potentially accelerating supply growth, but softer consumer sentiment and rising travel costs remain key risks, and room nights are expected to grow with the World Cup likely providing a boost. In the middle of these earnings, weekly initial jobless claims are forecast to rise compared to the prior week, ahead of Friday's full jobs report.

ConocoPhillips reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $3.9 billion, or $3.23 per share, and declared a third-quarter ordinary dividend of $0.84 per share. Adjusted earnings were $4.0 billion, or $3.24 per share, compared with $1.8 billion, or $1.42 per share, in the same period last year. The company generated cash from operations of $7.2 billion and increased total shareholder distributions to $3.0 billion, including $2.0 billion in share repurchases and $1.0 billion in dividends. ConocoPhillips achieved its $5 billion asset disposition target ahead of schedule, signed agreements to sell noncore Lower 48 assets for $1.7 billion, and advanced its LNG strategy with additional offtake agreements bringing total LNG offtake to 12 million tonnes per annum. Full-year guidance items were reaffirmed, and third-quarter production is expected to be between 2.29 and 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Shares of Chord Energy, Murphy Oil, Genesis Energy, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips jumped in afternoon trading after renewed Middle East hostilities and a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories heightened concerns over oil supply. Crude oil futures rose more than 6%, snapping a three-day losing streak, as the collapse of a four-day truce between Iran and the US led to an Iranian missile attack on a US base and tanker fire in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting retaliatory strikes by US and Saudi forces on Iran-aligned militias in Iraq. Brent crude climbed above $90 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate surpassed $84 a barrel, while the American Petroleum Institute estimated that US commercial crude stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending July 24, signaling tightening supply. Among the movers, Chord Energy gained 5.4%, Murphy Oil rose 5.2%, Genesis Energy added 3.7%, ExxonMobil advanced 3.1%, and ConocoPhillips increased 3.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady while U.S. oil neared $85 per barrel. In the last five years, the blue-chip index has closed down more than 1,000 points nine times, and historically it tends to fall in the week after such a large decline before performing well in the one-month and three-month periods that follow. Three of those drops occurred amid fallout from President Donald Trump's liberation day tariffs in April 2025, four happened during the 2022 inflation surge and Fed rate hikes, and the other two were in August and December 2024. Currently, investors are worried about the Fed's decision to stay on the sidelines at its July 2026 meeting amid above-target inflation, while oil prices rose again after Trump promised to hit Iran in retaliation for a surprise attack on American forces.

U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the S&P 500 sliding to a one-month low and the Nasdaq 100 sinking to a three-month low, as chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks sold off and crude oil prices surged more than 7%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 3% to a two-and-a-half-month low, with Nebius Group down more than 9%, KLA Corp and Sandisk down more than 7%, and Applied Materials, NXP Semiconductors, and ARM Holdings down more than 5%. Crude oil jumped after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it targeted a U.S. airbase in Jordan with ballistic missiles and claimed to have halted three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. and Saudi Arabia launched a joint attack on Iran-aligned terrorists in Iraq. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in a 9-3 decision, and markets awaited earnings from Microsoft and Meta Platforms after the close. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.64%, and energy stocks gained, with Diamondback Energy up more than 4% and ConocoPhillips, APA Corp, Devon Energy, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum up more than 3%.

An analysis identifies ConocoPhillips and Texas Pacific Land as energy stocks capable of generating sustainable market-beating returns, while Kosmos Energy is flagged as one to avoid. ConocoPhillips, with a market cap of $140.8 billion and revenue of $60.5 billion, is praised for its 8% annual revenue growth over the last ten years and strong free cash flow. Texas Pacific Land, valued at $27.36 billion, owns roughly 868,000 acres in the Permian Basin and earns revenue from oil and gas royalties, water services, and land leases. In contrast, Kosmos Energy, with a market cap of $1.45 billion and revenue of $1.37 billion, faces concerns over declining efficiency, negative free cash flow, and limited scale. The energy sector has returned 12.6% over the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500 by 6.4 percentage points.

OPEC+ is expected to pause its phased oil output increases after September, ending the rollback of a 1.65 million barrel per day supply cut agreed in 2023. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq will meet early next month to set a September target, planning a 188,000 barrel per day increase that matches recent monthly hikes. The group has been raising quotas to offset supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz, but several members struggle to get oil to market, with Iraq's output plunging from 4 million to around 1.4 million barrels per day. The pause could keep crude prices elevated, with Goldman Sachs warning oil could top $120 a barrel near term, and may drive Iraq to leave OPEC, potentially benefiting Chevron and ConocoPhillips, which have interests in Iraqi oil fields.