Shell plc

Shell said Friday it agreed to acquire a 30% non-operated interest in the Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada, while Equinor will retain a 70% interest and remain the operator; financial terms were not disclosed. Shell said the transaction provides an attractive entry point, expected returns above its hurdle rate, and exposure to an established resource base with potential longer-term growth. Bay du Nord is a phased subsea development tied back to a floating production, storage and offloading vessel, with planned gross production capacity of 160K-175K boe/day and first oil anticipated in 2031, and it is currently finalizing the front-end engineering and design. Equinor said the deal supports the continued maturation of Bay du Nord towards an investment decision currently targeted for early 2027.

Shell said Thursday it has partially restarted its Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar, six months after the facility was damaged during attacks on oil and gas infrastructure during the Iran war. The restart will let Shell build a limited amount of product inventory in storage, though the ability to ship product remains subject to the regional security situation. Traders in the market said QatarEnergy issued a spot tender offering up to 50K metric tons of four grades of naphtha, including Pearl GTL, on a free-on-board basis from the Ras Laffan port inside the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. Shell's wholly-owned Pearl GTL, fed from Qatar's North gas field, suffered damage to one of its two processing plants in the March attack, and the company expects repairs to be completed in Q1 2027; at full capacity, Pearl can produce 140K boe/day. The first LNG train under QatarEnergy's North Field East expansion project reportedly will be ready to start operation next month, which would provide a path for Qatar to restore some lost production.

Shell has raised its third quarter 2026 production guidance for its integrated gas and upstream operations. The upgrade comes after a period of strong share price momentum, with a 90-day share price return of 19.96% and a year-to-date gain of 32.20% at a latest share price of £36.48. Bulls argue the guidance upgrade and record refining margins justify the share price surge, while bears point to falling revenue and net income growth. The most followed narrative pegs Shell's fair value at £39.27, a 7.1% undervaluation relative to the latest close, with 211 investors backing that view. The narrative could crack if chemicals margins remain weak or if heavy buybacks start to strain flexibility when conditions become less supportive.

Shell plc's third-quarter 2026 outlook points to stronger activity across its Integrated Gas business, with production expected to reach 740,000-780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 631,000 boe/d in the second quarter. LNG liquefaction volumes, however, are forecast at 7.2-7.6 million tonnes, slightly below the 7.7 million tonnes reported in the second quarter, and the outlook includes the effect of the acquisition of ARC Resources, which was completed on Sept. 2, 2026. Upstream production is expected at 1.74-1.84 million boe/d versus 1.82 million boe/d in the second quarter, alongside about $300 million in exploration well write-offs. In Chemicals and Products, the indicative refining margin is expected to rise sharply to $42 per barrel from $24 per barrel in the prior quarter, while the indicative chemicals margin is projected to decline to $208 per tonne from $270 per tonne and refinery utilization is expected at 93%-97% compared with 102%. Shell also agreed last month to acquire a 30% interest in BP's Conifer prospect in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and a 50% stake in the Tupinamba exploration block in Brazil's Santos Basin.

JPMorgan expects a stellar third-quarter earnings season for European oil and gas companies, led by refining, and favors U.K. supermajors Shell and BP, plus Eni, urging investors to be selective after the group's outperformance. Analysts led by Matthew Lofting wrote that macro still trumps micro, as faltering inventories across energy products and regions become harder to ignore while Middle East de-escalation remains elusive. After marking estimates to forward price strips, the team sees a 2027 free cash flow yield of 10.9% at $85 Brent, with earnings per share on average a mid-single-digit percentage above consensus. JPMorgan stays Overweight on Shell and BP and Neutral on TotalEnergies, and sees Shell's next quarterly buyback rising to $4 billion, while expecting BP's total financial obligations to drop $5 billion in the quarter with gearing improving by almost 400 basis points. The bank also remains Overweight Eni, forecasting a higher full-year buyback of €4 billion and special dividend capacity of up to €1 billion, or €0.31 per share, with gearing heading toward about 10% by year-end. Among midcaps, refining margins hit records of $35 to $40 a barrel in the third quarter, versus a mid-cycle level below $10, but have recently moderated to about $15, and JPMorgan stays Overweight Galp and Underweight OMV.

Shell, the British oil major, said on the 7th that it expects refining margins in the third quarter of 2026 to reach $42 per barrel, far above the previous quarter's $24 and a record high. The company attributed this to fuel supply tightness and rising prices caused by the war between the United States and Israel and Iran, and the Middle East conflict is seen as a revenue booster worth billions of dollars for the major oil companies. Shell raised its third-quarter integrated gas production forecast to 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from its previous estimate of 570,000 to 630,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That figure includes production from Canada's ARC Resources, whose acquisition Shell completed on September 2 for $16.4 billion. Liquefied natural gas production is expected at around 7.2 million to 7.6 million tons, while upstream production is seen at 1.74 million to 1.84 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Meanwhile, the chemicals and products division's refinery utilization rate is expected to fall below the prior quarter, as the Rhineland refinery was affected by low water levels on the Rhine. Analysts at RBC noted that the upstream production forecast exceeded market expectations and that the trading division is also operating at a high level, supporting cash flow generation, and commented that overall cash flow looks stronger than market expectations.

Shell said Wednesday that its refining margins surged 75 percent in the third quarter compared with the second, as the Middle East and Ukraine wars hit supplies. The margins, which reflect the spread between the price of crude oil and the fuels derived from it, reached $42 per barrel in the July-September period, up from $24 per barrel between April and June, the British energy giant said in a trading statement ahead of full third-quarter earnings. According to Bloomberg, that $42 level is far above the previous record set in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB, described the move as an unprecedented widening of the refining spread, with pump prices, particularly for diesel, hitting record highs. While crude oil volumes from the Middle East have recently risen, production and export of refined products in the region remain heavily disrupted, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have prompted Russia to ban exports of certain products, notably gasoline and diesel. Shell's share price was up 0.6 percent in London midday deals, outperforming the FTSE 100 stocks index, which was down 0.6 percent.

Shell expects its indicative refining margin for the third quarter to have jumped to $42 per barrel, up from $24 per barrel in the second quarter, a record high that the UK-based major disclosed on Wednesday in its third quarter 2026 update note ahead of full results on October 29. The surge comes as global refining margins have soared on limited fuel flows from the Middle East and Russia's ban on diesel exports, which have compounded a global fuel crunch and taken an estimated 7-8 million barrels per day of refined petroleum products off the market. Shell's refinery utilization rate fell from 102% in the second quarter to an estimated 93% to 97% in the third quarter, as low water levels on the Rhine River hit utilization at the Rheinland refinery in Germany. Trading in the gas and fuel divisions is expected to be in line with the second quarter, while gas production guidance was lifted to 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 631,000 boe/d, including the completed acquisition of Canadian producer ARC Resources. Separately, Norway's Equinor guided on Wednesday for higher-than-expected earnings in its marketing, midstream, and processing division, citing unusually strong European refining margins and optimization in third-party LNG trading to push profits above the $400-million guidance.

Shell said Wednesday it expects about $300M in third-quarter upstream exploration well write-offs, alongside higher integrated gas production and refining margins. Upstream production is forecast at 1.735 million to 1.835 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, while integrated gas production is expected to rise to 740,000-780,000 boe/d and LNG liquefaction volumes are forecast at 7.2-7.6 million tonnes. In the second quarter, the European oil and gas major produced 631,000 boed, compared with over 900,000 boed before the US and Israel started a war on Iran in February. Shell's indicative refining margin is expected to rise to $42 a barrel in Q3'26 from $24 a barrel in Q2'26, with Trading & Optimisation expected to remain in line with the previous quarter. The update follows CEO Wael Sawan's Tuesday remark that oil flows from the Middle East have rebounded to roughly 80% of pre-war volumes, and last month's agreement to farm into two BP offshore exploration projects, taking a 30% interest in BP's Conifer prospect in the U.S. Gulf and a 50% stake in the Tupinamba block in Brazil's Santos Basin, with financial terms not disclosed.

Shell (SHEL) rose 1.14% to $97.62 in its latest close, outpacing the S&P 500's 0.58% gain, while the Dow added 0.49% and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%. The oil and gas company is projected to report earnings of $2.98 per share in its upcoming release, representing year-over-year growth of 60.22%, on revenue of $92.42 billion, a 31.26% rise from the equivalent quarter last year. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $11.23 per share and revenue of $377.84 billion, changes of +78.25% and +38.03% respectively from the prior year. Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS projection has moved 4.32% higher, and Shell currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Shell trades at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.59, a premium to its industry average of 8.31, with a PEG ratio of 0.78 versus an industry average of 0.6.

Equinor ASA stands to benefit from elevated Brent crude prices as its expanding production base increases exposure to stronger crude realizations. Brent is trading above $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply disruptions and falling global inventories, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz restricting regional energy exports. Equinor's upstream portfolio is supported by production growth from assets including Johan Castberg, Eirin, Symra and Bacalhau, and its low breakeven after a dividend of about $50 per barrel supports strong cash generation even if Brent retreats. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent to average around $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026. Shell plc saw its second-quarter 2026 upstream adjusted earnings rise as its realized liquids price increased to $89 per barrel from $72 in the prior quarter, while TotalEnergies SE said an $8-per-barrel increase in Brent was enough to offset the expected 2026 cash-flow impact from affected assets in Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Equinor shares have gained 67.7% over the past year against the industry's 115.7% growth, and the stock trades at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 2.2X versus the industry average of 5.94X.

Shell plc is weighing the potential sale of its U.S. chemicals operations for as much as $8 billion, part of a broader portfolio optimization push that also includes a new deep-water acquisition and a retail expansion. In September, Shell Offshore acquired a 30% interest in Conifer, an exploration prospect operated by BP in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, while subsidiary Equilon Enterprises LLC will raise its stake in Tri Star Energy from 33% to 100%, enabling supply arrangements with close to 650 dealer-owned locations and expanding Shell's Mobility & Convenience US portfolio to around 550 company-owned convenience sites. The moves follow a second quarter in which record refinery utilization and upstream production in Brazil drove adjusted earnings to $9.8 billion, with a $3.4 billion working capital inflow helping generate $21.4 billion in cash flow from operations. The recently finalized ARC Resources acquisition eases concerns about resource depletion, though it was financed largely with shares, diluting existing shareholders. Morgan Stanley recently lifted its price target on Shell to $101.30, and the stock closed at $95.61 on October 1, up 29.50% so far in 2026, with a market capitalization of $267.76 billion and a forward P/E of 9.57x.

Northern Lights, the carbon capture and storage joint venture owned by Shell, Equinor and TotalEnergies, has signed a new customer agreement with Oresundskraft Kraft & Varme, owned by the City of Helsingborg. Under the deal, CO2 will be captured and liquefied at Oresundskraft's Filbornaverket waste-to-energy plant in Helsingborg, Sweden, trucked to the Port of Halland in Halmstad, then shipped to Northern Lights' receiving terminal in Oygarden, Norway, for permanent storage in a reservoir roughly 2,600 meters beneath the seabed. Northern Lights will provide transportation and storage for up to 200,000 metric tons of CO2 per year, with operations targeted to begin in the fourth quarter of 2029 subject to agreed conditions. Oresundskraft becomes Northern Lights' second Swedish customer after Stockholm Exergi, and the seventh industrial customer overall across four countries. Northern Lights, described as the first of its kind to enable cross-border CO2 transportation and storage, completed its first CO2 injection in 2025, marking the start of commercial storage activity.

TC Energy Corporation has announced that Coastal GasLink Phase 2 will proceed after LNG Canada and its joint venture partners reached a positive final investment decision on the expansion of the LNG Canada facility, satisfying the conditions tied to TC Energy's previously approved conditional FID for the project. The existing Coastal GasLink pipeline transports about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, and Phase 2 is expected to nearly double that capacity through new compressor stations and facility upgrades along the existing 670-kilometer route connecting Dawson Creek with the LNG Canada liquefaction facility in Kitimat, British Columbia. Shell plc, through its affiliate Shell Canada Energy, took a final investment decision on the second phase of the LNG Canada project in Kitimat, clearing the way for an expansion that will double the facility's production capacity to 28 million tons per year from 14 million tons. The project will follow an integrated delivery model, with LNG Canada serving as the Phase 2 Execution Manager while Coastal GasLink remains the pipeline's owner, operator and permit holder, a structure designed to limit Coastal GasLink's capital commitments and exposure to construction cost and schedule risks. Construction of Coastal GasLink Phase 2 is expected to begin in early 2027, with the project anticipated to enter service in the early 2030s.

Mitsubishi Corp announced on the 29th that it has decided to invest in expanding the production capacity of the LNG Canada liquefied natural gas production facility in western Canada. Investing jointly with partner companies including British oil major Shell, Mitsubishi Corp's project spending will come to about 500 billion yen. By expanding liquefaction facilities, the company aims to raise production capacity to 28 million tons per year, double the current level, in the early 2030s.

Shell plc announced its 19th consecutive quarterly share repurchase of at least $3 billion, supported by robust cash generation and a sharp sequential drop in net debt from $52.6 billion in the first quarter to $41.75 billion. The company paid out 44% of its operating cash flows to shareholders over the prior 12 months and delivered $9.84 billion in adjusted earnings in the second quarter of 2026, its second-highest quarterly figure to date and more than a 100% increase from the same period last year. Its subsidiary Equilon Enterprises LLC, which operates as Shell Oil Products U.S., will raise its stake in Tri Star Energy from 33% to 100%, more than doubling Shell's company-owned convenience retail presence in the U.S. with 320 added fuel and convenience retail sites. On the risk side, Shell's Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar has remained shut since March after an attack damaged the site, disrupting operations that account for roughly 10% of the company's oil and gas production, while a potential sale of its U.S. chemicals business for up to $8 billion would come at a steep discount to the $14 billion invested in the Monaca, Pennsylvania facility. Institutional exposure rose modestly, with 49 hedge funds holding positions at the end of the second quarter of 2026 versus 45 in the prior quarter, and short interest stood at 3.16%.

Shell plc and its partners in the LNG Canada export project could reach a final investment decision on a Phase 2 expansion as early as October, according to a Reuters report on September 17. The proposed expansion would add 14 million metric tons per year of LNG export capacity to the facility in British Columbia, effectively doubling the project's total capacity to 28 mtpa. Shell holds a 40% stake in LNG Canada, making it the largest shareholder and lead backer of the joint venture, whose first phase cost C$40 billion and shipped its first cargo earlier this year. The expansion would also fit Shell's broader Canadian strategy following its $16.4 billion acquisition of ARC Resources, which boosted its production by 370,000 boed. The project remains unapproved, and Shell said any decision will weigh competitiveness, affordability, government support and stakeholder needs, amid concerns over weakening Chinese LNG demand and a potential global supply glut.

Wison New Energies unveiled a floating data center concept at the Gastech 2026 conference in Bangkok, pairing its Floating Storage Regasification to Power technology with modular data-center infrastructure on a single offshore platform. The Floating Power Data Center, or FPDC, stores and regasifies LNG onboard and converts it directly to electricity for onsite computing racks, and the company is examining whether cold energy released during regasification could help cool the servers. The concept responds to mounting constraints on land-based data centers in the U.S., including multi-year grid interconnection queues, water-cooling objections and scarce land near metro and fiber hubs, as well as political backlash such as Texas Governor Greg Abbott's August directive to pause the state's data center permitting process pending a review of water and energy usage. Wison's most recent proof point in offshore execution came this summer, when it signed the EPCIC contract for the Baleine Phase 3 FPSO serving Eni's offshore field in Côte d'Ivoire, a nearly 308-meter facility designed to process 90,000 barrels of oil a day. At Gastech, Wison also signed a collaboration agreement with Shell to integrate Shell's Dual Mixed Refrigerant liquefaction technology into its floating LNG portfolio, the first time the process will be available across the wider FLNG market, and a strategic memorandum of understanding with Houston-based KBR covering engineering, advisory services and integrated project solutions. Norway's DNV granted the world's first FLNG ABATE Notation FEED Approval for Wison's Low Emission FLNG, and the Houston-headquartered American Bureau of Shipping granted Approval in Principle for Wison's Floating Storage and Regasification Unit design for ammonia.

Shell plc and Trinidad and Tobago's National Gas Company have finalized commercial agreements covering natural gas supplies from the Aphrodite offshore field, clearing a major hurdle that had delayed the project. NGC chairman Gerald Ramdeen said the finalized terms significantly improve the project's economics for the state-owned gas company, providing 400% more value to the country than the terms previously negotiated. The Aphrodite development is expected to deliver its first gas in the second quarter of 2027, with NGC's pipeline and gas infrastructure transporting the field's production to the domestic market. The additional supply is meant to help Trinidad and Tobago offset years of declining natural gas production that has weighed on LNG exports and contributed to the closure of several petrochemical facilities, supporting downstream operations and commitments to power producers, industrial customers and Atlantic LNG, where Shell owns a 45% stake. The agreement is part of a broader Shell effort to strengthen the country's gas supply, including cross-border opportunities involving Venezuela and exploration of the Loran offshore gas field, a transboundary resource shared with Trinidad and Tobago that would tie subsea wells back to the Manatee platform.

HSBC upgraded BP and TotalEnergies to Buy from Hold on Friday, raising earnings and cash flow estimates across its global oil coverage after lifting its Brent crude, refining margin, and gas price forecasts. Analysts led by Kim Fustier raised their 2026 Brent assumption to approximately $90 per barrel from $80, and their 2027 forecast to $85 from $65, citing a partial, gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows, while also raising the second-half 2026 TTF gas price forecast to $22.5 per million British thermal units from $16.7 and the 2027 forecast to $17 from $12. The revisions lifted HSBC's 2026-28 earnings-per-share estimates across the sector by averages of 19%, 65% and 33%, respectively, with cash flow per share estimates rising by averages of 12%, 30% and 14%, and the largest revisions falling on international majors given their combined upstream, refining and trading exposure. For BP, HSBC raised its price target to 640 pence from 570 pence, implying nearly 18% upside, and for TotalEnergies it raised its target to €93 from €80, implying 18.4% upside. HSBC retained Buy ratings on Shell, Repsol and Chevron, raising Chevron's price target to $250 from $218 and expecting it to lift its annual buyback run rate to $15 billion from $10-12 billion, while Eni, Equinor, Galp and ExxonMobil stayed at Hold and OMV remained at Reduce.

Constellation Energy Corporation announced on September 10, 2026, an agreement to acquire 100% of RISEC Holdings, LLC, owner of the Rhode Island State Energy Center, from Shell Energy North America, a subsidiary of Shell plc, for $715 million. The 609-megawatt natural gas-fired combined-cycle facility sells power into the ISO New England wholesale market, and net of expected first-year tax benefits the effective purchase price is approximately $580 million. Constellation said the acquisition should be immediately accretive to operating earnings while meeting its 10% unlevered return threshold and preserving its $5 billion share buyback program. For Shell, the disposal is part of portfolio high-grading, freeing cash to support capital returns, structural buybacks, and higher-margin investments. Constellation gains dependable regional capacity alongside its nuclear fleet, though it takes on added debt and merchant gas exposure to commodity and power price swings.

Chevron and Egypt are seeking to accelerate agreements needed to connect Cyprus' Aphrodite gas field to Egyptian infrastructure, as Cairo looks to strengthen its role as an Eastern Mediterranean gas hub. Egyptian Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi held talks with Chevron executive Javier La Rosa this week, with discussions focused on finalizing the technical, financial and commercial frameworks required to move the project forward, and on expanding Chevron's gas exploration activities in Egypt's Mediterranean waters. Egypt said in March that technical and legal teams were already preparing key agreements for linking the field to Egyptian infrastructure, potentially allowing its gas to be processed and re-exported to international markets. Discovered in 2011, Aphrodite lies in Cyprus' offshore Block 12, around 170 kilometers southeast of the island, and Chevron operates the field with a 35% interest alongside Shell and NewMed Energy. The field contains an estimated 3.5 trillion cubic feet of gas, and Cyprus approved an updated development plan in 2025 involving a floating production unit and a subsea pipeline connecting Aphrodite with Egypt. The project forms part of a broader effort to funnel Eastern Mediterranean gas through Egypt's extensive processing and LNG infrastructure, with Egypt also working to connect other Cypriot discoveries, including Eni and TotalEnergies' Cronos project and discoveries operated by ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy.

Shell plc has completed the sale of its interests in two Gulf of America assets, with subsidiary Shell Offshore Inc. divesting its 50% non-operated working interest in the Na Kika platform and associated fields along with the 100% owned Coulomb tieback. The assets were acquired by a subsidiary of Talos Energy and an affiliate of Ridgewood Energy, and Shell received approximately $840 million in cash proceeds at closing, reflecting adjustments between the transaction's July 1, 2025, effective date and closing. The transaction was initially announced in June 2026 with total consideration of $1.7 billion before customary adjustments and certain contingent payments, and Shell will also receive uncapped upside-linked payments through 2027 plus overriding royalty interests on production from new Na Kika tiebacks. The assets generated a Shell entitlement share of approximately 37,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, and at the end of 2025 Shell had proved reserves of 4.3 million barrels of oil equivalent at Na Kika and 7.2 million boe at Coulomb. Shell described the deal as part of its portfolio high-grading strategy, noting Na Kika is nearing the end of its life, while buyers assume certain decommissioning obligations and Shell Trading US Company retains offtake rights through negotiated agreements.

Canada's oil patch has recorded over $30 billion in mergers and acquisitions so far this year, with Wall Street projecting the final tally will surpass the $53 billion recorded in 2017. The wave is being driven by high oil and asset prices amid the Middle East conflict rather than distressed selling, said Raj Singh, CEO at Calgary-based Fuelled Inc. The year's highlight has been Shell's $16.4 billion takeover of Arc Resources, which adds 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to Shell's output and lifts its projected annual production growth rate from 1% to roughly 4% through 2030. In another deal, Tamarack Valley Energy and Headwater Exploration announced an all-stock merger valued at C$10 billion, or $7.25 billion, creating the largest publicly traded pure-play Clearwater oil producer with expected production exceeding 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Carlyle also formed Avenrock Energy to acquire Calgary-based Parallax Energy Operating Inc. from Carnelian Energy Capital, a deal analysts believe cost around $1 billion, marking its second multi-billion-dollar push into Alberta's energy sector in 12 months after its roughly $1.4 billion acquisition of Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. in October.

Shell has agreed to acquire Canadian producer ARC Resources Ltd. in a major oil and gas dealmaking move. The transaction lands during a record-setting year for Canadian energy M&A activity that is reshaping the sector's ownership base, and it expands Shell's footprint in North American hydrocarbons while adjusting its portfolio exposure to Canadian assets. The deal fits Shell's strategy of high-grading its portfolio, swapping out smaller or non-core businesses such as retail and renewables platforms for a large Canadian resource base that can feed its LNG Canada ambitions and integrated gas trading. The pressure point sits on the risk side, where analysts already highlight Shell's reliance on oil and gas and LNG market uncertainty versus peers like BP and TotalEnergies, and folding in ARC during a Canadian consolidation boom increases exposure to commodity and policy swings in one country. The pay-off now depends heavily on execution, cost control and how LNG pricing actually evolves.

Oil and gas private equity deal count fell 60% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 to just 16 deals, worth $3.4 billion, as investor confidence was hit amid ongoing price volatility. Of those deals, just three were new platform buyouts, according to PitchBook's Q2 2026 Oil & Gas Report, with the rest secondary buyouts, tuck-ins or carveouts as firms managed existing holdings rather than deploying fresh capital. The largest deal was CPP Investments' $1.2 billion growth investment in Texas-based gas and LNG platform Caturus, while Paris-headquartered Antin Infrastructure Partners took the third-largest spot with its $164.5 million acquisition of Texas-based Sapphire Gas Solutions, bought from Apollo funds through Flagship Fund V. The $39 billion in M&A deal value marked a 20.3% QoQ drop, though on an annualised basis 2026 deal value is tracking 10% ahead of 2025, and the three largest M&A transactions of the quarter all involved companies headquartered in Calgary, Alberta: Shell's $16.4 billion purchase of ARC Resources, GFL Environmental's $4.6 billion acquisition of Secure Energy Services, and Keyera's $3.9 billion buy of Plains Midstream Canada. The report also noted that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drawn OECD government oil inventories down by 163 million barrels to their lowest level since 1990, while the UAE ended its OPEC and OPEC+ membership on May 1 and a widening Red Sea conflict threatens the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline.

Shell plc-led LNG Canada is reportedly moving toward a Phase 2 expansion, with partners potentially reaching a final investment decision as early as October. The proposed expansion would add 14 million metric tons per annum of LNG export capacity, effectively doubling the facility's total capacity to 28 mtpa from the 14 mtpa produced by the two processing trains of the first phase, which cost about C$40 billion. LNG Canada is a joint venture led by Shell and backed by Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi Corp and Korea Gas Corp, located in Kitimat, British Columbia, and is Canada's first large-scale LNG export terminal. Shell said discussions with its venture partners are continuing on potential pathways for the expansion, and any decision will take into account competitiveness, affordability, government support and stakeholder needs, with the final investment decision targeted before the end of 2026 subject to commercial, fiscal, regulatory and governance requirements. By the second quarter of 2026, LNG Canada had delivered more than 100 cargoes and reached full capacity, contributing to a 17% year-over-year increase in Shell's first-half 2026 LNG liquefaction volumes, and Shell expects a potential Phase 2 investment to add another layer of free-cash-flow growth in the 2030s.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Shell plc from Equal Weight to Overweight on September 3 and raised its price target from $81.60 to $101.30, implying 9% upside and exceeding Shell's previous record high of almost $95 per share. The bank named Shell a top pick, saying concerns about the company's long-term resource longevity have eased and that it can sustain production growth through 2030 and stabilize output thereafter. Shell completed its $16.4 billion acquisition of ARC Resources earlier this month, a deal that expands its gas reserves and boosts production by 370,000 boed, though it was paid for mostly in shares, creating dilution risk for existing holders. Shell also agreed to acquire a 30% interest in BP's Conifer exploration prospect in the US Gulf and a 50% stake in the Tupinamba exploration block in Brazil's Santos Basin, and signed a preliminary agreement for production rights over Ghana's South Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points oil and gas block. The company beat second-quarter top-line and bottom-line estimates, more than doubled its net profit year over year, and delivered around $700 million of structural cost reductions in the first half of 2026, taking total savings to $5.8 billion since 2022.

Shell warned that the global energy market is running through its remaining cushions after losing roughly 36 million metric tons of LNG and 1.6 billion barrels of crude oil and condensates since the Middle East conflict began. The company's chief economist said weaker Chinese demand, inventory drawdowns, flexible shipping, spare pipeline capacity and rising production from the Americas helped soften the first wave of disruption, but that protection is thinning. Even if key energy routes reopen, damaged infrastructure and supply-chain bottlenecks could keep the market tight well into 2027, while Europe heads toward winter with unusually low gas inventories. Shell's LNG portfolio, shipping reach and global trading network could gain strategic value in that environment, though high prices cut both ways, as Asian buyers have already shifted toward coal, nuclear power and domestic gas. Shell's U.S. shares were nearly flat at $95.51, a 15.21% premium to a GF Value estimate of $82.90.