Natural Gas Value Chain

Fluxys Belgium reported half year 2026 sales of €342.97 million and net income of €46.78 million, with higher basic earnings per share than a year earlier. The shares now trade at €21.2, up 1.44% over one day and 3.41% over seven days, though the 30-day return is down 5.78%; the 90-day return is 8.16% and the year-to-date gain is 10.99%. The stock carries a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6x, above the 12.5x peer group average and the 13.9x average for the broader European oil and gas industry, while revenue is expected to decline 2.8% per year. A discounted cash flow model values the shares at €1.5 each, far below the current price. Over one year total shareholder return is 16.66%, against a broadly flat 3-year total shareholder return of 0.09% and a 5-year total shareholder return that declined 18.04%.

ConocoPhillips confirmed it is reviewing an unsolicited offer of up to US$7.00 billion for certain European assets, a relatively small portion of its portfolio. The company said the review reflects a focus on portfolio discipline rather than any large-scale reshaping of its business, and any sale would sit alongside its existing growth drivers in LNG and long-life conventional projects. Separately, analysts remain upbeat on ConocoPhillips' near-term earnings prospects, citing a positive Earnings ESP of 17.36% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) ahead of its next earnings release previously expected on November 5, 2026. The company's narrative projects $68.0 billion in revenue and $11.4 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 1.8% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.1 billion earnings increase from $9.3 billion today. The most bearish analysts had assumed revenue would slip to about US$62,000,000,000 by 2029 and earnings to about US$9,900,000,000.

Moody's Ratings has revised its outlook on Crescent Energy Co to positive from stable while affirming the company's Ba3 Corporate Family Rating, a move that followed immediately on Crescent's $3.85 billion all-cash acquisition of Eagle Ford Basin assets from Devon Energy Corporation. To finance the purchase, Crescent secured a $2 billion bridge facility commitment alongside a $1 billion primary equity offering. Moody's Vice President Jonathan Teitel said the positive outlook reflects both the enhanced operational scale in the Eagle Ford and expectations that robust, hedge-supported free cash flow will enable substantial debt reduction over the next 12 to 18 months. The Devon transaction positions Crescent to expand production to approximately 400 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, pushing its operating footprint well past similarly rated exploration and production peers, though Moody's cautioned the acquisition appears fully valued and materially increases near-term debt loads, interrupting the company's recent deleveraging momentum. Crescent has locked in substantial commodity hedges for 2027 at higher crude prices, and Moody's expects the Houston-based producer to refinance its temporary bridge commitments with long-term capital, preserving a liquidity profile that currently includes SGL-1 top-tier liquidity and $2 billion in committed credit facility availability. Upgrades over the next year to 18 months will hinge on executing post-acquisition debt reduction, maintaining conservative financial policies, and sustaining retained cash flow relative to total debt above 50%.

Oracle is trucking natural gas directly to its data centers to keep construction on schedule, a stopgap measure it is considering for a build in New Mexico where a needed gas pipeline is delayed. The company is already running 30 trucks a day to data centers outside Salt Lake City, according to Bloomberg reporting. Oracle did not respond to requests for comment, but later posted on social media praising the partner helping it carry out the effort. The news added to pressure on Oracle shares, which had already been sliding amid confusion over OpenAI's ARR figure, though the stock was up almost 5% on the day. Analysts said the move signals the delays are more significant than the market expected, since trucking gas is a measure normally reserved for remote mining or temporary industrial operations.

The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the United States rose this week to 603, up 56 from the same time last year, according to new data Baker Hughes published on Friday. Within that total, active oil rigs rose by 6 to 462, which is 44 above year-ago levels, while gas rigs fell by 1 to 132, still 12 more than a year earlier, and miscellaneous rigs held steady at 9. The Permian Basin accounted for much of the gain, with its count rising by 4 to 274, 24 rigs above year-ago levels, while the Eagle Ford held fast at 49, 5 more than this time last year. Separately, EIA data showed weekly U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.979 million bpd in the week ending October 2, up from 13.955 million bpd the prior week and up 350,000 bpd from a year ago, and Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count rose for a fourth straight week, up 1 crew to 196. Oil prices were down Friday ahead of the data release, with Brent trading at $103.80, down 0.42% on the day but up $2.70 from a week ago, and WTI at $91.29, down 0.22%.

Shell plc has partially restarted operations at its Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar, marking an initial recovery step after the Iran war damaged the plant in March 2026. The restart will let Shell build limited inventories of finished products, though shipments remain dependent on regional security and safe maritime routes, and repairs to Train 2, one of the facility's two processing units, are still underway with completion expected in the first quarter of 2027. Pearl GTL, based in Ras Laffan Industrial City, has a capacity of 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and converts North Field natural gas into gasoil, kerosene, base oils, naphtha and normal paraffins. Separately, QatarEnergy has begun returning Pearl-GTL naphtha cargoes to the market, issuing a spot tender offering as much as 50,000 metric tons of naphtha across four grades on a free-on-board basis from Ras Laffan, and Haldia Petrochemicals in India received 50,000 metric tons of naphtha for the current quarter. QatarEnergy's previous naphtha tender, which also included Pearl-GTL material, was awarded at a discount of $150 to Middle East benchmark quotations on a free-on-board basis, a figure that relates to the earlier tender and not the latest offering. The partial restart does not mean the facility has returned to normal production, and the pace of further recovery will depend on the repair schedule, operating conditions and the ability to transport products to customers.

Devon Energy is expected to post earnings of $1.20 per share for the current quarter, a change of +15.4% from the year-ago quarter, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate up +5.7% over the last 30 days. For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $5.35 points to a change of +36.5% from the prior year and has risen +2.1% over the last 30 days, while the next fiscal year's estimate of $5.28 indicates a change of -1.3% and has moved +4.8% over the past month. The consensus sales estimate of $7.3 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +68.5%, with $25.96 billion and $28.03 billion expected for the current and next fiscal years, changes of +51% and +8% respectively. Devon Energy reported revenues of $7.42 billion in the last reported quarter, a year-over-year change of +73.1%, with EPS of $1.57 versus $0.84 a year ago, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.3 billion by +17.76% on revenue and by +20.77% on EPS. The recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Devon Energy, and the stock carries a Zacks Value Style Score of B, indicating it is trading at a discount to its peers.

Shell Canada Energy, an affiliate of Shell plc, has reached an agreement with Equinor to acquire a 30% non-operated interest in the Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Equinor will retain a 70% interest and remain as the operator of the project. The concept is a phased subsea development tied back to a floating production, storage and offloading vessel, with gross production capacity planned to be 160-175 kboe/d and first oil anticipated in 2031. The project remains pre-FID, and any future investment decision will be subject to Shell's investment criteria and will need to compete for capital within its portfolio. Shell said the transaction provides an attractive entry point with expected returns above its hurdle rate and exposure to an established resource base with potential longer-term growth.

Oil companies announced four separate transactions in four trading days as Brent crude held above $100 a barrel, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration now expecting Brent to average $96.32 a barrel in 2026 and $83.74 in 2027, up from $91.01 and $73.74 a month ago in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA said Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 higher than in August, and touched a daily high of $131 on September 15 after attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline temporarily halted flows on a route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and it assumes Middle East oil flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter with shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels per day. Cenovus Energy agreed on October 5 to acquire Athabasca Oil Corporation for C$12.00 per Athabasca share, payable in cash, Cenovus shares or a combination, for an implied enterprise value of C$5.7 billion, adding about 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and expected to generate about $85 million a year in synergies. Energy Transfer agreed on October 6 to acquire Vaquero Midstream for about $2.6 billion, made up of $1.95 billion in cash and about 33.3 million newly issued Energy Transfer common units, adding roughly 300 miles of pipeline in Texas and the Caymus Processing Complex with about 675 million cubic feet per day of capacity. Chevron subsidiaries signed definitive agreements on October 6 with Hess Midstream to extend Bakken midstream terms, expecting to cut Bakken unit midstream costs by about 50%, divest its Hess Midstream interests and transfer DJ Basin crude oil midstream assets for $200 million in cash, and fully deconsolidate Hess Midstream including about $3.7 billion of its debt. Crescent Energy agreed on October 8 to acquire Devon Energy's Eagle Ford assets for an estimated net purchase price of about $3.85 billion after adjustments, adding about 68,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of net production and more than 600 Tier 1 net locations, and launched a $1 billion offering of Class A common stock the same day. Shell issued its third quarter 2026 update note on October 7, pointing to an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel, up from $24 in the second quarter, with Integrated Gas production expected at 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and third quarter results scheduled for October 29.

Devon Energy has agreed to sell its Eagle Ford shale acreage to Crescent Energy for US$4.2b in cash, reshaping its portfolio around higher-return, longer-duration assets. The roughly 90,000 net acres are described as non-core, and management aims to lower its corporate breakeven, with net proceeds earmarked for faster share repurchases and debt reduction. Closing is expected around year end 2026, and investors will watch for any updated capital return framework. The deal headlines a morning in which US stocks are set for a softer open as inflation expectations push higher again, with median US inflation expectations for the year ahead at 3.9% for September 2026, the highest since May 2023, and Fed minutes showing most officials see a likely need for another 25 bps hike to a range of 3.75% to 4% by year end. Mortgage applications are down 4.2% and the average 30 year fixed rate sits around 7.49%, keeping pressure on borrowing costs for households and companies. Elsewhere, Vertiv reported quarterly sales up 24% and lifted its annual forecasts on AI data center demand, while CoreWeave faces a tougher backdrop for data center IPOs after an expected postponement of Nvidia backed Firmus Grid's Australian listing.

Enterprise Products Partners has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share, unchanged from the prior quarter. The distribution carries a forward yield of 6.1%. It is payable November 13 to shareholders of record as of October 30, with the ex-dividend date also set for October 30. The company has now announced a dividend of $0.56 for two consecutive quarters.

Yuanta Securities has issued an analysis recommending a buy on GPSC shares with a target price of 66.50 baht, following a dinner talk with Cherdchai Boonchuchuay, the company's new Chief Executive Officer. He was previously Senior Executive Vice President of the Natural Gas Business Unit at PTT Public Company Limited and has served as chairman of several companies within the PTT group. Management is maintaining the goal of securing new PPAs from the PDP plan totalling 5.1 to 5.2 gigawatts, in line with the previous CEO's plan, but views this as not overly difficult and is in the process of setting a clearer new target plan after reporting third-quarter 2026 results, which is expected to be significantly higher than the original plan. The brokerage sees GPSC as having potential for at least 10,000 megawatts of further investment. In the data center business, the company plans to invest as a minority shareholder, roughly 500 to 700 megawatts under the original plan, but expects no less than 300 megawatts at a shareholding proportion of about 30 percent. Direct PPAs are seen as the main growth driver after the PDP plan, because actual demand is far higher than the government's pilot plan of 2,000 megawatts. The listing of Avaada is expected to be completed by late 2027, which will unlock value and increase profits for GPSC. The company may reduce its shareholding if it obtains a satisfactory IPO price, but not below 30 percent from the current 39 percent, and the added value from Avaada could lift GPSC's target price by as much as about 20 baht. As for the ERU project with TOP, a conclusion will be reached this month, with a high chance it will not proceed, in which case an investment of 96 million US dollars would be returned, along with interest of roughly 700 million to 1 billion baht.

Crescent Energy Company announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 80,000,000 shares of its Class A common stock at $12.50 per share. Independence Energy Aggregator L.P., an entity affiliated with KKR & Co. Inc. that holds approximately 7.9% of Crescent's Class A common stock, has agreed to purchase 40,000,000 of those shares at the public offering price and on the same terms as the other shares. Crescent intends to use the net proceeds to fund a portion of the cash consideration for its recently announced acquisition of certain Eagle Ford oil and natural gas assets from Devon Energy Production Company, L.P., a subsidiary of Devon Energy Corporation, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027. The offering is not contingent on the completion of that acquisition, and if it is not completed the proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including repayment of indebtedness of the Company's subsidiaries. The Company has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 12,000,000 additional shares, and the offering is expected to close on October 13, 2026.

Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, together with Krungthai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, is opening subscriptions for a 7-year GULF digital bond with a fixed coupon of 2.80% per year, paying interest every 6 months, through the bond trading wallet on the Paotang application from 19 October 2026 at 08:30 to 21 October 2026 at 15:00, or until the full offering amount is subscribed. The minimum subscription is 1,000 baht, in multiples of 1,000 baht, with a maximum of 50 million baht per subscription, allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. The bond is a registered, unsubordinated, unsecured issue with a bondholders' representative, and carries a credit rating of AA- with a stable outlook from TRIS Rating Company Limited as of 24 August 2026. In the second quarter of 2026, GULF posted record operating profit of 12.332 billion baht, up 74%, and total revenue of 50.294 billion baht, up 24% from the same period a year earlier, driven by its energy businesses spanning natural gas power plants, renewable energy power plants, and natural gas procurement and wholesale trading, as well as recognition of its share of profit from ADVANC. Investors can also trade the bond in the secondary market through digital channels in real time, 24 hours a day.

Crescent Energy Company has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Eagle Ford assets from Devon Energy for an estimated net purchase price of approximately $3.85 billion. The acquired assets include approximately 68 Mboe/d of net production and more than 600 Tier 1 net locations normalized to 10,000 feet, directly adjacent to Crescent's existing operations in the Karnes Trough. Crescent said it has identified approximately $140 million in annual synergies across drilling and completions, lease operating expenses and marketing, and expects the deal to be accretive across all key metrics including CFFO, FCF and NAV. The transaction, which also adds Devon-owned minerals to Crescent Royalties, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027, subject to customary closing conditions. Crescent has obtained debt financing commitments from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and RBC Capital Markets, LLC, with KKR Capital Markets advising on the financing, and plans to fund the consideration through cash on hand and a balanced mix of debt and equity.

Reuters reported, citing inside sources, that senior US and Russian officials, including Jared Kushner, the US special envoy, have opened talks on the possibility of bringing a group of American investors into the Nord Stream pipeline project, which was once the main pipeline carrying natural gas to Germany before Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine. Among the key figures taking part in the talks were Kirill Dmitriev, a close adviser to President Vladimir Putin, and Kushner, the son-in-law of President Donald Trump, who sees creating business interests as central to restoring peace, and the deal would open the way for American investors to profit from energy deliveries to Europe once the war ends. Over the past few weeks, Dmitriev and Kushner have met in both Moscow and New York. Although it remains unclear how much detail on Nord Stream was discussed, sources confirmed the issue is on the negotiating agenda. White House officials said that any agreement would require Russia to negotiate jointly with the DFC and the US Treasury, and that any deal must benefit American taxpayers and businesses, but added that there had been no discussions about Nord Stream in the recent period. Meanwhile, one US official assessed that such a deal is unlikely in the medium term, because Nord Stream's pipeline infrastructure remains under US and European Union sanctions, making the restart of the pipeline an illegal act. At the same time, Germany and its European allies, which are pouring billions of euros into rebuilding and strengthening their military capabilities to defend against the threat from Russia, would fiercely oppose reviving the Nord Stream pipeline. A female spokesperson for Germany's Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy stated that both the Nord Stream pipeline and Russian natural gas are subject to European sanctions, and that Germany has already secured alternative energy sources as replacements, stressing that restarting the pipeline would require approval from the German government, which has no intention or policy of granting it.

Chevron is moving to fully divest its ownership stake in Hess Midstream, transferring its general partner interest to new owners and exiting certain DJ Basin midstream assets that will be shifted into the Hess Midstream platform. The transaction makes Hess Midstream an independent, multi-basin operator, with Chevron staying on as a key customer. The new Bakken tariff cuts and a lower 2026 to 2027 outlook pressure the volume-at-any-price model, but are paired with longer contracts running to 2045. Hess Midstream is expected to become a fully independent, multi-basin operator by 2028, moving it closer to peers such as Enterprise Products Partners and Kinder Morgan, while analysts still flag leverage and dividend coverage as watchpoints.

KGI Securities has raised its profit forecast for PTTEP for 2026 by 6% to 79.2 billion baht, from 74.6 billion baht previously, and lifted its 2027 forecast by 2% to 83.1 billion baht, from 81.4 billion baht previously, citing higher crude oil prices. It raised its assumption for Dubai crude in 2026 to 90 US dollars per barrel from 85 US dollars per barrel, while keeping its 2027 assumption at 75 US dollars per barrel. It also raised its assumption for PTTEP's average selling price this year by a further 3%. For third-quarter 2026 operating trends, KGI expects net profit of 20.2 billion baht, up 59% year-on-year but down 26% quarter-on-quarter. The decline from the previous quarter is due to an expected loss of 2.5 billion baht from oil price hedging, a reversal from a hedging gain of 4.1 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, as well as lower sales volumes. KGI maintains a hold rating on PTTEP with a 2027 target price of 156 baht. PTTEP shares are trading at 148.50 baht, up 1.50 baht or 1.02%, with turnover of 676.85 million baht.

Several analysts expect PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, to post normalised profit of approximately 23 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, down from 24.5 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026 but up significantly from 12.2 billion baht in the third quarter of 2025. Global Securities said in an analysis dated 7 October 2026 that the main pressure comes from sales volume, which is expected to fall to about 525,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 573,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the previous quarter, due to maintenance shutdowns at production fields in the Gulf of Thailand, as well as lower sales volumes from projects in Malaysia and Algeria. The average selling price is expected at about 52.2 dollars per barrel of oil equivalent, slightly down from 52.9 dollars in the previous quarter, while unit cost is expected to hold steady at about 30 dollars per barrel of oil equivalent. Net profit for the third quarter of 2026 is expected at about 20.3 billion baht after being hit by hedging losses. Global Securities maintained a buy recommendation with a target price of 190 baht and expects sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2026 to recover to about 548,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities estimated normalised profit for the third quarter of 2026 at about 20.9 billion baht and expects normalised profit for the first nine months of 2026 at about 65 billion baht, or roughly 85% of its full-year profit forecast, while maintaining a buy recommendation with a target price of 155 baht. Land and Houses Securities expects normalised profit for the third quarter of 2026 at about 20.07 billion baht and maintained a buy recommendation with a target price of 164 baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) estimated net profit for the third quarter of 2026 at about 20.2 billion baht, up roughly 59% from the same period a year earlier but down about 26% from the previous quarter, while maintaining a hold recommendation with a target price of 156 baht. DAOL Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis dated 8 October 2026 that net profit for the third quarter of 2026 is likely to come in at about 19.3 billion baht, up roughly 52% from the same period a year earlier but down about 29% from the previous quarter, while maintaining a buy recommendation with a target price of 180 baht. Overall, most analysts still see that although PTTEP's third-quarter 2026 results will slow from the previous quarter on sales volume and hedging losses, profit will still grow strongly from a year earlier, while the fourth-quarter outlook has a chance to recover on higher sales volume and remains supported by high oil and natural gas prices.

KGI Securities (Thailand) estimates that PTTEP will post a net profit of 20.2 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 59% from a year earlier but down 26% from the previous quarter. The year-on-year increase is supported by an expected 21% rise in average selling price to 52.2 US dollars per barrel of oil equivalent, tracking higher Dubai crude prices. However, third-quarter 2026 profit is likely to decline from the second quarter of 2026 because the company is expected to record a loss of 2.5 billion baht from oil price hedging, compared with a gain of 4.1 billion baht in the previous quarter, along with an expected 8% drop in sales volume to 525 KBOED due to maintenance shutdowns at several projects and a repair halt of the FPSO at the Kikeh project in Malaysia. At the same time, KGI has raised its PTTEP profit forecasts by 6% to 79.2 billion baht for 2026 and by 2% to 83.1 billion baht for 2027, after revising its assumption for Dubai crude prices in 2026 to 90 US dollars per barrel. It maintains a hold rating and a 2027 target price of 156 baht, noting that the share price may be pressured in the short term by the quarter-on-quarter decline in third-quarter 2026 profit, while investors still need to monitor the conflict situation in the Middle East and negotiations between the United States and Iran, which could directly affect global oil supply and prices.