Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited

Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, has announced the final coupon rates for six tranches of bonds and digital bonds with maturities of 3 to 10 years, at 1.83% to 3.00% per year, with a total face value of not more than 20 billion baht. Subscription will open from 19 to 21 October 2026 through eight leading financial institutions and the Paotang application. All six tranches received a credit rating of AA- with a Stable outlook from TRIS Rating on 24 August 2026. As for the coupon rate of each tranche: tranche 1, a 3-year bond, is a zero coupon bond with a discount rate of 1.83% per year; tranche 2, a 4-year bond, carries a fixed coupon of 2.10% per year; tranche 3, a 5-year bond, carries a fixed coupon of 2.33% per year; tranche 4, a 7-year digital bond, carries a fixed coupon of 2.80% per year; tranche 5, a 7-year bond, carries a fixed coupon of 2.80% per year; and tranche 6, a 10-year bond, carries a fixed coupon of 3.00% per year. Interest is paid every six months throughout the life of the bonds, except for the 3-year bond. Miss Yupapin Wangwiwat, Chief Financial Officer of GULF, said the company had once again succeeded in bookbuilding, with demand reaching as high as 3.3 times the value of the bonds allocated to institutional investors and/or high-net-worth investors, and that the proceeds from this fundraising will be used to repay bonds due for redemption as well as to support expansion of investment in renewable energy and digital infrastructure businesses such as data centers, cloud and AI. In the second quarter of 2026, GULF posted a record core profit of 12.332 billion baht, up 74% from the same period a year earlier, with total revenue of 50.294 billion baht, up 24% from the same period a year earlier.

Gulf Labs has announced a strategic partnership with Injective, a blockchain developed specifically to support financial services, and has officially begun operating as an Institutional Validator on the Injective network to lay the infrastructure for an onchain financial system for institutional players in Thailand and to extend growth opportunities across Asia. The two parties will jointly study development in several areas, including tokenization, stablecoins, expanding channels to reach users at the national level, education and events, as well as data centers and infrastructure for AI. Gulf Labs will connect Injective with the business ecosystem of the GULF group, which covers energy, telecommunications, banking, digital assets, cloud services, and data centers. The GULF group currently has a market capitalization of approximately 27 billion US dollars, an energy business portfolio with total installed generating capacity of more than 24 gigawatts, and a telecommunications business serving more than 46 million mobile subscribers. This partnership builds on Injective's Asia strategy after its operations in South Korea and Japan. In South Korea, POSCO International and LG CNS selected Injective for a tokenization pilot project for trade receivables, while Four Pillars launched an Institutional Validator on Injective. In Thailand, there is M-INJ, an Injective fund management strategy by Merkle Capital that invests in INJ and stablecoins such as USDC. Gulf Labs may also partner with Binance TH through Binance TH Academy to organize roadshows, university network programs, and campaigns within the digital asset trading platform. The details and direction of the partnership are still to be determined.

Krungsri Securities said in a research note that power plant stocks GPSC, GULF and BGRIM have regained investor attention on rising electricity demand from data centers, artificial intelligence and the chip industry, setting 2027 target prices of 61 baht, 77 baht and 23 baht respectively and recommending a buy on all three. GPSC, or Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, has drawn interest from the draft national power development plan, or PDP2026, which may allow existing power plants to extend their power purchase agreements by another seven years. GULF, or Gulf Development Public Company Limited, stands to benefit from direct power purchase agreements, or Direct PPAs, from data center, AI and chip businesses, with estimated power demand of around 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts. That figure reflects an assessment of the market opportunity, not the total capacity for which GULF has already secured contracts. BGRIM, or B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited, has raised its power generation target for the data center business to 500 megawatts by 2030 from 300 megawatts previously. Krungsri expects BGRIM's normalized profit to grow 22% in 2027 and 17% in 2028, helped by lower natural gas costs amid an oversupply of LNG and the gradual commercial start-up of new projects, namely the Nakwol 1 wind power plant in South Korea and a data center project in Thailand. Investors, however, still need to watch for clarity on energy policy and related regulations, as well as fuel cost trends and the investment burden of each company.

Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two stocks, setting a target price for TU at 14.80 baht, with support estimated at 12.40/12.60 baht and resistance at 13.20/13.5 baht, and a target price for GULF at 72 baht, with support estimated at 58.5/60.0 baht and resistance at 62.75/63.5 baht. For TU, higher tuna costs are pressuring gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2026 after September tuna prices rose 42% year on year, expected to hit gross margin by about 50 basis points before gradually recovering in the first quarter of 2027 in line with the downward trend in tuna prices. Core profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to grow 12-15% year on year and 2-4% quarter on quarter on higher sales from product price adjustments, strong pet food demand, and improved mixed products, while gross margin recovers year on year but slows quarter on quarter from a high base in the previous quarter. GULF has a strong long-term outlook from the gradual commercial operation of power plants, especially renewable energy, the expansion of its data center business, for which GULF has readiness at a level of 2,000 megawatts, as well as profit sharing from ADVANC that continues to grow, and it is expected to benefit from the new PDP 2026 plan amid rising electricity demand, which increases opportunities for new power generation capacity that GULF is highly ready to bid for, including new M&A deals for power plants overseas. Normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 weakened quarter on quarter on the absence of KBANK dividend income but still grew strongly year on year on profit sharing from ADVANC and new renewable energy projects in Thailand.

Power plant stocks rose prominently this morning, with GPSC jumping 4.62%, up 2.25 baht to 51.00 baht, on trading value of 578.88 million baht, buoyed by progress on revising data center criteria, as the Data Center board gradually finalizes the approval and regulatory framework for new data center investment within a one-month timeframe, with a conclusion expected no later than October 15. Meanwhile, agencies that must amend related laws are scheduled to present proposals to the Cabinet within October 2026, a positive sentiment for the power plant sector, especially companies with strong capital bases such as GULF and GPSC. Short-term support also comes from the baht strengthening to 33.55 baht per dollar from 33.73 baht per dollar yesterday, and short-term US government bond yields falling 5 bps to 5.227%. Krungsri Securities recommends focusing on GULF, GPSC and BGRIM with 2027 target prices of 77.00 baht, 61.00 baht and 23.00 baht respectively. Asia Plus Securities noted that GPSC targets new generating capacity of about 5,000 MW from the power plant procurement round under Thailand's PDP2026 plan, and plans to list its AEPL project in India on the Indian stock market in 2028, while seeking M&A in Laos, targeting new projects that yield more than 8-10% returns, and plans initial data center investment of about 50-100MW in both Thailand and India.

Kasikorn Securities stated that the World Bank recommends Thailand accelerate its use of AI to boost productivity and escape the middle-income trap, after finding that only 12% of Thai businesses use AI, compared with 43% in the United States. The government should urgently develop workforce skills, establish clear regulations, and ensure energy security for data centers. Meanwhile, Thailand's manufacturing base, services sector, and AI hardware supply chain are key strengths. The brokerage views this as structurally positive for the industrial estate, utilities, power plant, digital infrastructure, and electronics sectors, such as WHA, AMATA, WHAUP, GULF, BGRIM, DELTA, KCE, and HANA.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) assesses that Thailand's hosting of the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, to be held from 12-18 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, will be a positive factor for the Thai stock market. It marks Thailand's return as host after 35 years, having last hosted in 1991, and more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries are expected. Thailand is presenting the concept "A New Horizon for Thailand: Empowering People, Strengthening Readiness for Change," and will push four main issues: the transition to digital and AI, the role of middle-sized countries in a multipolar world, coping with climate change, and preparing the economy for an aging society. Yuanta's research team cites the case study of Indonesia, which hosted in 2018, finding that the JCI Index rose 2.8% in the one month after the meetings and outperformed MSCI EM, MSCI DM and MSCI ACWI, which delivered negative returns during that period. It therefore sees the SET Index as likely to outperform regional markets. The digital and AI theme is positive for SMT, HANA, CCET, AMATA, WHA, DITTO and SKY, while the middle-sized countries theme, aimed at supporting SMEs, is positive for KBANK, SCB, KTB, SAWAD and MTC. The climate theme is positive for GUNKUL, SSP, GULF, DITTO and TEAMG, and the aging society theme is positive for BDMS, BH, BCH and CHG. It also sees the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers, namely AOT, THAI, BA, ERW, CENTEL, MINT and AWC, with several large concerts choosing to hold events in Thailand during November-December providing continued support.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, has maintained its SET index target for the end of 2026 at 1,680-1,750 points, assessing that the Thai stock market in the fourth quarter of 2026 is likely to recover strongly, driven by the start of a new investment cycle powered by AI technology, production base relocation, and energy security. As a result, credit growth in Asia has accelerated to 8.5% year-on-year, the highest level in 18 years. Meanwhile, Krungsri research has raised its forecast for Thailand's 2026 GDP to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment expected to expand 8.6% and exports expanding 14.0% year-on-year. Earnings of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 hit a record high, growing 12% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion, the longest streak since the third quarter of 2011. Krungsri Securities therefore recommends an overweight position in three main themes: stocks benefiting from the Asia-Thailand CAPEX Cycle, stocks with potential for NTM re-ratings, and stocks benefiting from a super El Niño. Its top picks for the fourth quarter are TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA, and KBANK, and it also recommends keeping an eye on mid-small cap stocks such as THAI HANA and ERW.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) said the government is drafting the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan for 2028-2032, which will take effect from October 2027, aiming to restructure the Thai economy and reduce constraints that hinder growth, in order to push economic expansion above 3% per year and set a goal for Thailand to rank among the world's top 20 in competitiveness by 2029. The plan is driven through five key areas, covering raising production efficiency and attracting new industries, reforming public administration toward OECD standards, upgrading human capital to support an aging society, turning natural resources and the environment into development capital, and investing in technology and innovation. A key shift from the 13th plan is the move away from designating target industries toward addressing structural constraints, through five pillars: Transform, Reform, Upgrade, Sustain, and Transfer. Yuanta's research team sees industries with a chance to benefit, including AI and data centers, electrical infrastructure, smart grid and smart meter, automated production systems, proactive water management, and digital infrastructure. The five stock groups expected to benefit are power plants, commercial banks, telecommunications, electronics, and construction contractors and building materials. Stocks that stand to gain include GULF, GUNKUL, GPSC, SSP, SCB, KTB, ADVANC, TRUE, SMT, and EPG.

Bualuang Securities said the Power Development Plan 2026, or PDP2026, is likely to be approved by October 2026 through the energy minister, the Energy Policy Administration Committee and the National Energy Policy Council, without needing cabinet approval, about two months faster than the market had expected. New capacity for 2026-2037 remains unchanged at 50.9GW, and the first power plant auction is expected in mid-2027. What has changed is not the size of investment but the sequence of investment, because the current grid serves today's demand, not the volume of renewable energy. Battery energy storage systems, direct power purchase agreements and data centers under PDP2026 mean investment in transmission systems, smart grid substations and engineering, procurement and construction work must come before new power plants. Case 4, expected to be the main approach, requires investment of about 500 billion baht for grid stability during 2029-2050. Demand for direct power purchase agreements already exceeds 2,000MW and is not limited to data centers, while electricity demand from data centers has been confirmed at about 7-8GW. The deciding factors are the wheeling charge for grid use and the readiness of the transmission system. For battery storage, the ministry is giving more weight to large, grid-scale systems, with battery capacity in the plan for 2026-2037 at 14.5GW and possibly rising to 55GW by 2050. The broker keeps an above-market view on the utilities sector, with GULF and GUNKUL still the top picks, but the order of attractiveness has clearly shifted, with GUNKUL moving to the front on its transmission EPC business and electrical equipment that benefit before the power plant auction. GULF still has the greatest opportunity to add profit in value terms and has businesses covering renewable energy, battery storage and gas. GPSC is supported by power plant renewals and battery storage, BGRIM still needs clarity on the wheeling charge, and EGCO and RATCH stand out for dividends and the opportunity from power plant renewals.

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP growth this year to 2% from 1.3%. TTBB Wealth Securities said the upgrade was driven by exports of AI-related goods and investment in data centers, which helped offset the impact of higher energy prices. For 2027 and 2028, Thailand's economy is expected to expand by 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Risks to watch include conflict in the Middle East, higher US import tariffs, a weak tourism sector, the effects of a severe El Niño that could hit farmers' incomes, and household debt as high as 87%. Although the upward revision to the GDP forecast is a positive factor, growth remains concentrated in only a few industries, so the research team is using a selective strategy, focusing on export groups with strong growth and groups that benefit from data center investment, namely DELTA, KCE, HANA, STECON, GULF, GUNKUL, BGRIM and GPSC.

CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, expects the SET Index to move in a range of 1,575 to 1,595 points today, supported by the U.S. stock market, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, while concerns over oil prices and U.S. government bond yields have begun to ease. In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,521.28 points, up 253.38 points or 0.49%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93 points, up 44.98 points or 0.58%, and the Nasdaq closed at 27,599.79 points, up 122.48 points or 0.45%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed at 636.63 points, up 3.01 points or 0.48%. Crude oil prices saw the November WTI contract close at 89.44 dollars per barrel, up 0.01 dollars or 0.01%, and the December Brent contract close at 100.58 dollars per barrel, up 0.26 dollars or 0.26%. December COMEX gold closed at 4,187.10 dollars per ounce, up 30.30 dollars or 0.73%. CGSI noted that investors still need to watch the Fed meeting report tonight to assess the direction of U.S. interest rates for the remainder of the year. Among its recommended stocks, CGSI expects Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA, to post higher revenue in the second half of 2026, driven by a continued recovery in profit margins, and estimates third-quarter 2026 revenue growth of about 15% from the previous quarter, with a take-profit level of 276 baht and a stop-loss level of 269 baht. Gulf Development, or GULF, is supported over the long term by its renewable energy business, data centers, and the MTP3 LNG Terminal project, which CGSI sees as a key driver of profit growth from 2030 onward, with a take-profit level of 60.50 baht and a stop-loss level of 59 baht.

The Structured Product team at Bualuang Securities recommends a Buy on Dip strategy using ELN products to lock in future stock entry prices while earning returns during the wait, viewing market volatility and the flood situation as an opportunity to select stocks with high Earnings Resilience and Recovery Visibility. The recommended underlying stocks include CRC in the retail sector, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to grow 31% year on year and whose 2027 Core Profit is expected to grow 10%, with a 1-month ELN on CRC at a 96% strike offering a yield of 10.05% per year. In the hospital sector, BDMS and BH are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 6% and 2% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on BDMS at a 97% strike offering a yield of 6.91% per year. In the tourism sector, CENTEL and AWC are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 31% and 33% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on AWC at a 95% strike offering a yield of 8.32% per year. And in the power plant sector, GULF and GUNKUL are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 46% and 35% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on GULF at a 97% strike offering a yield of 5.58% per year. Reference prices are as of October 5, 2026. Lessons from the 2011 floods show that the speed of profit recovery matters more than the initial impact, and many sectors can recover within roughly one quarter.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects third-quarter 2026 earnings of listed companies to come in at 350 billion baht, up 39% from the same period a year earlier, a level it describes as high compared with the historical quarterly profit range of 150 to 250 billion baht. The gain is driven by the energy and petrochemical sectors, which continued to grow strongly after oil prices surged about 44% late in the quarter, giving refineries and petrochemical producers inventory gains that lifted their results. Teerdsak Taweethiratham, an executive director at Asia Plus Securities, said third-quarter 2026 earnings should grow from a year earlier but decline from the second quarter of 2026, and estimated bank profits at 65 billion baht. If third-quarter earnings meet expectations, nine-month 2026 profits would reach 1.1 trillion baht, and if the fourth quarter of 2026 continues to grow on the back of government infrastructure investment in energy and private-sector upgrades to production capacity for the high-end semiconductor supply chain, full-year 2026 earnings could set a new record of about 1.4 to 1.5 trillion baht, up 30% to 40% from a year earlier, equal to earnings per share of 112 to 115 baht, compared with the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 110 baht per share. The research team recommends trading plays on stocks with strong third-quarter 2026 results and momentum continuing into next year, namely GULF, GUNKUL, SSP, EPG, SINGER, SGC, BEM, SMT, TEAM, MINT and CHG.

Several brokers have issued research notes recommending a buy on Gunkul Engineering, or GUNKUL, after it signed a partnership agreement with Gulf Development, or GULF, to set up a joint venture for renewable energy projects. Bualuang Securities said GUNKUL signed power purchase agreements, or PPAs, for an additional 261.8 megawatts in phase 2 renewable energy projects, and sold a 50 percent stake in seven project companies, or SPVs, with total capacity of 673.4 megawatts to GULF for 467 million baht. The deal helps keep 26 billion baht of project debt off GUNKUL's balance sheet and opens the door to EPC backlog not yet included in estimates. It maintained its buy rating with a target price of 6.50 baht. Krungsri Securities upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a 2027 target price of 6.30 baht per share based on a sum-of-the-parts method, split into 4.05 baht per share for the power business and 2.24 baht per share for the EPC and trading business. It also raised its 2026 to 2028 profit forecasts by an average of 8 percent, putting profit at 2.1 billion, 2.1 billion and 3.3 billion baht, an average growth rate of about 25 percent a year, with clear growth expected in 2028 after commercial operation, or COD, of large renewable energy projects in the Philippines. Asia Plus Securities kept its estimates and 2027 fair value at 6.40 baht per share, saying the restructuring does not significantly affect long-term project returns, and recommended gradually accumulating the stock for the long term. GUNKUL shares closed the morning session at 5.15 baht, up 0.10 baht or 1.98 percent.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) said in an analysis that the flood situation has widened, covering 30 provinces and 191 districts in Bangkok as of 1 October 2026, affecting 1.18 million households and about 3.35 million people. The impact on the economy remains limited, however, if the situation does not drag on and does not hit core production bases. The Bank of Thailand estimates the effect on GDP at about 0.03–0.10%, while the research team expects the impact on GDP to be no more than 0.1% and on SET earnings no more than 2%, far below the major floods of 2011. The key thing to watch is the length of production stoppages in the industrial sector rather than the amount of flooded area. At AMATA City Chonburi, about 150 factories were affected and 34 temporarily halted production, while KCE and HANA have some production bases in Ayutthaya. As for DELTA's plants in Bang Pu and Wellgrow, no water entered the factories and operations have returned to normal. Other groups saw fairly limited impact. Consumer finance firms are expected to see about a 2% hit to 2026 earnings for TIDLOR and MTC and 1% for SAWAD, while banks face their main risk from higher provisioning, with an estimated 1–2% impact on earnings, larger than the effect on interest income. BGRIM said its SPP power plants in Amata City Chonburi and its floating solar operations are still running normally. Bualuang sees the flood-driven volatility as a chance to gradually accumulate stocks with resilient earnings and quick recovery prospects, namely CRC, AWC, CENTEL, BDMS, BH, GULF, GUNKUL, DELTA, KCE and HANA, which still have support from demand for AI and data centers.

Finansia Securities said GULF is well positioned to link energy infrastructure and ICT businesses with AI, with a strong financial position and capacity to take on an additional 200-300 billion baht in debt. It estimates that added capacity under PDP 2026 could create roughly 10 baht per share of upside for GULF, assuming EGAT opens bidding for about 10GW of new renewable energy projects next year and GULF secures a 40% share, or roughly 4GW of solar projects, under power purchase agreements at a feed-in tariff of 2.16 baht per kWh. Investment is expected to require about 25-30 million baht per MW, with an IRR of approximately 12%. On the AI megatrend, electricity demand is expected to grow faster than GDP, especially demand for clean power from data centers, which are more power-intensive than general industry. Key catalysts include the new PDP, Direct PPAs for 2GW of data centers, and opportunities to invest in renewable energy projects in Europe over the next year. The research team maintained its Buy recommendation and raised its target price to 89.50 baht per share to reflect the opportunity to add capacity from bidding under the new PDP, as well as the acquisition of a 50% stake in solar and wind projects from GUNKUL, representing total capacity of 339.5MW on a proportional ownership basis. The acquired projects are estimated to have a combined NPV of about 9.7 billion baht based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 5.5%, adding roughly 0.5 baht per share, with net IBD/E of only 1.06 times.

Sarath Ratanavadi, Chief Executive Officer of Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, filed a report on changes in securities and derivatives holdings by executives, Form 59, disclosing the purchase of an additional 5,000,000 ordinary shares of the company on September 30, 2026, at an average price of 59.25 baht per share, for a total value of approximately 296.25 million baht, or nearly 300 million baht. The purchase was made through the Stock Exchange of Thailand via the Auto Matching system through Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited. Following the transaction, Sarath holds a total of 4,368,150,493 GULF shares, or 29.24% of the company's total voting rights, up from 4,363,150,493 shares held before the transaction.

Gulf Energy Development, or GULF, has begun operating its Chiang Mai waste-to-energy power plant under the Chiang Mai Waste to Energy project, having started commercial operation and supplied power to the grid on 1 October 2026. The plant has an installed capacity of 9.5 megawatts and a contracted capacity of 8 megawatts, selling power to the Provincial Electricity Authority, or PEA, for a period of 20 years. GULF holds an indirect 99.23% stake in the project, and the start of operations adds to the company's portfolio of operating power plants.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

The Investment Analysts Association (IAA) released a survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 firms, forecasting that the SET Index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will move within a range of 1,537 to 1,683 points and close the year at 1,680 points. The end-2027 target stands at 1,727 points. Market earnings per share are expected to average 103.38 baht in 2026, growing 16.41%, and 104.29 baht in 2027. The main supporting factor is the investment trend in technology and the AI supply chain at 96%, followed by listed-company earnings in 2026 at 88%, foreign capital inflows into the Thai stock market at 80%, and domestic economic recovery at 76%. The biggest risks are the US-Iran-Israel conflict situation and the direction of US interest rates, tied at 84%, followed by global oil prices at 80%. Under its economic assumptions, the association estimates average crude oil prices this year at 88.12 US dollars per barrel, GDP growth in 2026 averaging 2.20%, revised up from the 1.93% forecast in July, and GDP growth in 2027 averaging 2.07%. All analysts surveyed agree that the Bank of Thailand will hold its policy rate at 1% through the end of 2026. On investment strategy, the association recommends diversifying portfolios with 30% in foreign stocks or funds, 24.79% in Thai stocks or funds, 18.02% in bond funds, 10.21% in gold or gold funds, 10.02% in cash and short-term deposits, and 6.96% in property funds or REITs. The five standout stocks recommended by four or more firms are BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF, and CRC. The association also recommends underweighting energy, petrochemical, airline, and property stocks.

Kasikorn Securities recommends buying GULF shares with a 79 baht target, expecting strong profit growth during 2026–2030 after GULF notified the SET on September 28 that GRE, its 100%-owned subsidiary, acquired a 50% stake in 7 GUNKUL companies, covering 12 solar and wind power plant projects in Thailand with total contracted capacity of 673MW, or 337MWe based on GULF's proportionate equity capacity. GULF paid 467 million baht for the 50% stake, while GUNKUL retains the other 50%, representing a premium of about 1.4 million baht per MW for the acquisition of rights under PPA contracts. The acquired portfolio comprises solar and solar-plus-BESS projects totaling 209MW and wind farm projects totaling 464MW. All 12 projects have signed 25-year PPAs with EGAT, with FiT rates of 2.16 baht per kWh for solar, 2.83 baht per kWh for solar-plus-BESS, and 3.10 baht per kWh for wind. This acquisition of 337MWe of renewable capacity represents about 3.5% of GULF's committed equity capacity of 9,607MWe as of August 2026. Profit sharing from the 209MW of solar is expected to be about 150 million baht in 2028 and to increase by roughly 600 million baht from 2030 onward from the 464MW of wind farms. The solar power plants will begin COD from 2027, while most wind projects will reach COD in 2029–2030. Kasikorn Securities views that the newly acquired capacity will not yet affect profits in the second half of 2026 and expects third-quarter 2026 net profit to grow year-on-year but decline quarter-on-quarter. The 79.00 baht target price is based on a discounted cash flow method with a WACC of 4.4%.

KGI Securities unveiled its top stock picks for October 2026, recommending accumulation of stocks in the private investment and data center themes, comprising DELTA, GULF, WHA, STECON and CENTEL. The research team believes the market in October is likely to rebound, as the market has already priced in much of the global economic risk, including uncertainty in the Middle East and surging bond yields in major markets worldwide. It expects the SET Index to recover, and sees a high chance the Fed will pause rate hikes temporarily after August core PCE came in below consensus. It also sees a fairly high possibility that the US and Iran will reach some form of ceasefire agreement soon. On domestic factors, the Thai government began rolling out the final phase of consumption stimulus measures today and will shift its focus to stimulating private investment, including PPP-model infrastructure projects and FDIs. As for STECON, it signed new project contracts worth 10 billion baht, equal to 20% of its 2026F target of 50 billion baht, lifting its backlog to 116.4 billion baht, and it expects to win another 70 billion baht in projects, mainly data centers and power plants. Meanwhile, GULF has identified data center demand of more than 2GW of capacity expected to secure Direct PPAs, and the PDP2026 plan is expected to add another 20-30GW of renewable energy capacity and another 20GW of gas-fired capacity. For CENTEL, the research team remains positive after updating information with management, noting that RevPAR booked in Q3/2026F recovered year-on-year by a mid-single-digit rate from -10% in Q2/2026, and is expected to improve further during the high season in Q4/2026F. The recommended portfolio for September fell 2.6%, underperforming the overall market, which declined 2.0%.

CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), estimates that the SET Index is likely to weaken today within a range of 1,550-1,570 points, with the market still pressured by continuously rising oil prices, which are adding to concerns over the global inflation outlook. Meanwhile, US government bond yields that continue to climb are a factor weighing on capital flows and demand for investment in risk assets. Although US PCE inflation figures came in below expectations, the market has not significantly eased its concerns over the interest rate path. In the US stock market on Wednesday, September 30, the Dow Jones closed at 50,906.05 points, down 443.87 points, or 0.86%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,651.54 points, down 19.30 points, or 0.25%, and the Nasdaq closed at 26,861.06 points, up 63.52 points, or 0.24%. European stock markets closed lower for the first month in six, with the STOXX 600 closing at 634.89 points, down 3.19 points, or 0.50%. Meanwhile, November-delivery WTI crude oil futures rose 1.04 dollars, or 1.16%, to close at 90.42 dollars per barrel, and November-delivery Brent crude futures rose 0.94 dollars, or 0.92%, to close at 103.53 dollars per barrel. For recommended stocks, CGSI stated that TRUE is expected to post net profit of 6.34 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 303% year-on-year but down slightly by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a profit target of 13.10 baht and a stop-loss point of 12.40 baht. GULF is expected to see renewable energy projects, data centers, and the MTP3 LNG Terminal drive long-term profit growth after 2030, with a profit target of 59.75 baht and a stop-loss point of 58.50 baht.

Krungsri Securities maintains its Base-Best target for the Thai stock market index this year at 1,680-1,750 points, based on EPS of 103 baht, up from 98 baht, at a P/E of 17.0 times. The near-term momentum comes from the earnings quality of two main groups: those benefiting from energy and inflation, and those gaining momentum from the upstream AI CAPEX cycle, which is expected to help listed companies' profits continue expanding for at least two more quarters, namely the third and fourth quarters of this year. The research team assigns an Overweight investment weighting to three main groups: the group benefiting from the CAPEX cycle, covering the power sector with a recommendation for GULF, banking with a recommendation for KBANK, electronic components with a recommendation for DELTA, and construction contracting with a recommendation for SCC; the NTM Re-ratings group with potential to recover over the next 12 months or re-enter the MSCI index, such as THAI, PTTGC and TOP; and the agriculture and food group, covering agricultural substitutes, which benefits from Super El Niño, such as IVL. At the same time, it has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP this year to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment rising 8.6% and exports rising 14.0%. Meanwhile, the pipeline of large-scale investment covers FDI/BOI, the PDP2026 worth 2.14 to 2.48 trillion baht, and mega projects worth 1.3 trillion baht. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the research team expects the index to move within a support range of 1,560 to 1,550 points and a resistance range of 1,680 to 1,750 points, with top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 being TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK.

Securities analysts at Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, said Thailand's capital market in the third quarter faced pressure from slowing foreign capital flows, with foreign investors selling Thai bonds worth as much as 37 billion baht, flipping the cumulative net position since the start of the year back to a negative 7.952 billion baht. The Thai stock market saw net selling of nearly 20 billion baht in just six trading days. However, foreign investors continued to rotate into large-cap stocks whose prices have risen slowly, led by SCB with net buying of 2.974 billion baht, PTT at 1.361 billion baht, TOP at 882 million baht, IRPC at 627 million baht and BBL at 517 million baht. Another domestic positive factor is that the National Semiconductor Committee approved the Thai chip strategy, or Chip Made in Thailand, to attract investment of 2.5 trillion baht, with a short-term target of 500 billion baht within five years, focusing on three technology groups where Thailand has potential: photonics, power system chips and sensors. These are expected to generate revenue for the industry exceeding 5 trillion baht per year and create more than 230,000 jobs. The research department recommends an investment strategy in stocks with specific positive factors, highlighting five standouts: DR: BE03 on demand for electricity for data centers in the United States; DR: LITE80, a leader in high-performance laser business, a key component in the tightening photonic supply chain; TRUE, whose third-quarter 2026 profit outlook is growing strongly with an expected dividend yield of about 1.2%; GULF, which benefits from the downward trend in crude oil prices and support from the PDP plan as well as data center growth; and PLANB, which is likely to see upward revisions to its 2027 profit forecast from its investment stake in iCare and is entering the high season for the outdoor advertising business in the second half.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the Election Commission's use of barcodes and QR codes on constituency MP ballots on 8 February 2026 does not violate the constitution, after the Ombudsman filed a petition arguing that the codes could be traced back to individual voters and would breach the principle of secret voting. The court found that in practice tracing is extremely difficult and that adequate safeguards are in place. That election therefore remains valid and does not need to be rerun, and the court merely recommended considering alternative security measures for future elections. The outcome removes the most severe scenario the capital markets had feared, namely a nationwide annulment of the election leading to a political and policy vacuum. With the ruling of no wrongdoing, it is expected to be positive for overall market sentiment and for foreign investor confidence thanks to reduced political risk, especially for large-cap stocks with high foreign holdings and sectors that depend on continuity of government policy, such as construction contractors, power, industrial estates and banks, since the government can continue administering the country as normal. The investment themes that benefit most include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, power producers GULF, GPSC, BGRIM and GUNKUL, contractors STECON, CK, PYLON and INSET, banks KBANK, KTB and KKP, and component makers DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, in overall trading yesterday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,594.30 points, down 8.07 points, while Thai Airways, or THAI, closed at 6.05 baht, down 0.10 baht or 1.36%, amid a backlog of more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage. Thai Airways management explained that the main cause was a shortage of manpower, especially baggage handling teams and staff holding ground operation licences who were affected by flooding and unable to travel to work. In addition, Bangkok is Thai Airways' main aviation hub, so when a large number of employees are affected at the same time, the operating system comes under heavy pressure. The issue arose while Thai Airways is pressing ahead with its rehabilitation plan and its operating results have begun returning to profit. What the market and investors must therefore monitor from here on is not just the numbers in the financial statements, but also the efficiency of the operating system and the ability to cope with a crisis.

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that it is maintaining its Neutral investment weighting on energy and petrochemical stocks, noting that the five business groups, namely upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power plants, and oil retail, each have different drivers. It highlighted eight top picks. The upstream group, which includes PTTEP and PTT, faces short-term pressure from lower oil prices, with Dubai crude falling 11.84 US dollars to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, though still well above the 2025 average of about 70 US dollars per barrel. The top pick in this group is PTTEP. The refining group, which includes BCP, IRPC, PTTGC, SPRC, and TOP, is supported by a recovery in Singapore refining margins of 3.17 US dollars to minus 1.44 US dollars per barrel. The top picks are BCP and SPRC. The petrochemical group, which includes IRPC, IVL, PTTGC, SCC, and TOP, benefits from a broad increase in price spreads after naphtha prices fell 33 US dollars per ton. The top picks are PTTGC and SCC. The power plant group, which includes BGRIM, GPSC, and GULF, has improved in the short term on weaker JKM gas prices, down 1.80 US dollars to about 26 US dollars per million British thermal units. The top picks are GULF and GPSC. The oil retail group, which includes OR and PTG, benefits from a 0.71 baht increase in diesel marketing margins to 2.00 baht per liter after pump retail prices were raised on September 24, 2026. The top pick is PTG.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited expects the SET Index to move sideways today, with support at 1,595 and 1,590 points and resistance at 1,608 and 1,612 points, amid pressure from the US-Iran war that is keeping crude oil prices and US government bond yields elevated. However, the market is supported by political clarity after the Constitutional Court ruled that the barcode ballot papers do not violate the constitution, which helps underpin government stability and facilitates the continuation of public investment policy. The tourism sector is beginning to recover, with the number of foreign tourists between 20 and 27 September 2026 at 482,000, up 4.1% week-on-week, while Chinese tourists rose as much as 42%. Meanwhile, concerns over AI safety have eased after NVIDIA launched a software platform to control Agentic AI. For today's top picks, Krungsri selected GULF, CK and TOP as its Alpha Espresso Picks, with 2027 target prices of 77 baht, 25.35 baht and 83 baht respectively.

Today's top picks are led by GULF, which newspapers report is making an aggressive move by joining forces with GUNKUL to invest 466.5 million baht for 50% stakes in 12 solar and wind farm projects with a combined generating capacity of 673.4 megawatts, with power supply set to begin in 2570, securing long-term revenue from fixed power purchase agreements. Solar Farm rates range from 2.1579 to 2.1679 baht per kilowatt-hour, Solar BESS at 2.8331 baht, and wind power at 3.1014 baht. Meanwhile, GUNKUL is bringing GULF in as a joint venture partner to strengthen liquidity and expand financial headroom, supporting investment opportunities under the PDP 2026 plan, while accelerating the expansion of its clean energy portfolio to 3,000 megawatts by 2573. On another front, EGCO has closed a deal to advance its clean energy game in the United States, acquiring 49% of Pinnacle IV, with a generating capacity of 339 megawatts from two operational wind and solar power plants, pushing its renewable energy portfolio up to 1,785 megawatts, or 26% of total generating capacity. Brokerages estimate the new projects will boost profits by 6 to 8% and give an average target price of 145.67 baht. As for AOT, it reports that Suvarnabhumi saw flights surge to 347,000 in 11 months, with passengers reaching 59.6 million, and is accelerating a 152 billion baht investment plan for a major upgrade of Suvarnabhumi, with 12 billion baht to drive the East Expansion to raise passenger capacity to 70 million per year, along with a 120 billion baht South Terminal plan and infrastructure including a fourth runway at another 20 billion baht. The average target price is 71.50 baht, with a high of 85.00 baht.

GULF announced the purchase of a 50% investment stake in 12 renewable energy power plants from GUNKUL, with total contracted capacity of 673.4 megawatts, for a combined value of 466.5 million baht. The projects comprise 176.4 megawatts of solar power plants, 33.0 megawatts of solar plants equipped with energy storage systems, and 464 megawatts of wind power plants, representing an incremental capacity of 336.7 megawatts based on the acquired shareholding, on top of GULF's existing total capacity of 13.1 gigawatts. The projects are scheduled to begin operations between 2027 and 2030 under power purchase agreements with EGAT at fixed feed-in tariffs of 2.1679 baht per unit for solar plants, 2.8331 baht for solar plants with energy storage systems, and 3.1014 baht for wind plants. Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities estimate the deal will add upside of about 0.7 baht per share to the target price and boost GULF's profit by roughly 1.18 billion baht from 2031 onward, or 2% of current profit forecasts for that year. Meanwhile, analysts at Krungsri Securities view it as slightly positive for both companies, expecting the deal to add about 450 to 500 million baht in profit for GULF after all projects reach commercial operation date in 2030 onward, equivalent to an additional target price of about 0.33 baht. For GUNKUL, profit after 2030 is expected to decline only slightly, by about 100 million baht, with the target price falling 0.1 baht, though in the long term the reduced shareholding will enhance its debt capacity to support investment opportunities under PDP26 going forward. This marks GULF's second investment of 50% in projects GUNKUL won at auction in 2023, following the first investment in June 2025, when GULF bought a stake worth a combined 704.0 million baht in 410.2 megawatts of solar power plants and 50.6 megawatts of solar plants with energy storage systems, which is already included in the current target price of 75.0 baht per share.

Piriyapol Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, said the firm maintains a positive view on the Thai stock market, assessing that the SET still has an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could move close to its best-case index target of 1,780 points before shifting into a more range-bound movement. Under the base case, the SET is estimated at 1,710 points at the end of 2027, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times. Three key drivers are the global technology trend, the upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital inflows. Capital expenditure plans by major cloud service providers are expected to grow 93% in 2026 and another 41% in 2027, while Thailand's electronics exports are expected to grow 55% in 2026 and 40% in 2027. For the fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, a Barbell Strategy is recommended, focusing on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC, alongside the power group GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL, before gradually shifting to sector rotation and stock selection in the first half of 2027 and increasing the weighting of dividend stocks as the core of the portfolio in the second half of 2027.

A securities research note recommends "buying" GULF shares, expecting second-half 2026 results to continue growing and maintaining its 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance of roughly 12-15% growth, driven by about 700 MW of new capacity in the second half. This includes 623 MW of renewable power plants expected to add about 600 million baht in annual profit, and the 10 MW Chiang Mai community waste-to-energy plant expected to generate about 120 million baht in annual profit. Meanwhile, the LNG import and optimization business is expected to generate about 1.5 billion baht in profit this year. Rising electricity demand from data centers and EV adoption is likely to support dispatch at IPP/SPP power plants. The Jackson power plant in the United States is already benefiting from capacity payments that rose from 270 to 329 dollars per MW-day on demand from data centers in the PJM market. GSA01, with 25 MW, has had customers using its full capacity since June, allowing it to recognize full profit in the second half of 2026, while the first roughly 200 MW of committed data center capacity is expected to be fully operational in 2027 before expanding to about 1,000 MW in late 2028. The company continues to expand its digital infrastructure into a full ecosystem covering energy, data centers, cloud, AI platform and applications, and enterprise solutions, with plans for about 130 to 140 billion baht in equity investment over five years and an allocation of roughly 10% to GULF Edge, which could rise to 15% as data centers grow. It also sees small modular reactors as another long-term investment opportunity if the government provides clarity on laws and regulatory criteria. On sentiment, the view is that the price decline from Singtel's share overhang is nearing resolution after Singtel sold 416 million GULF shares, or 2.8% of the total, in June 2026, cutting its stake from 7.73% to 4.95%, with a lock-up barring further sales of the remaining shares for 90 days, a period that ended on September 23. On technical factors, the price decline formed a low and held the psychological support level of 60.00 with a bullish candlestick signal. The trend is a double bottom pattern, or the completion of an inverted V-shape, with resistance at the 61.25 SMA. If it breaks and holds above that with rising volume, it would be a buy signal for a trading round. For those holding the stock, the recommendation is to hold or add, with a chance to test resistance at 61.25 and 62.75, and for those without the stock, a short-term buy is recommended, focusing on holding support at 60.00 and 59.00, and it should not fall below that.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is starting to gain supportive themes after Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness from Negative to Stable, while affirming the sovereign rating at BBB+. As a result, Fitch Ratings, Moody's Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings all now hold a Stable outlook on Thailand. Fitch views the improved government stability as reducing political uncertainty, and expects Thailand's economy to expand 2.3% in 2026, close to 2.4% in 2025, supported by investment in AI and data centers as well as consumption stimulus measures. It also expects general government debt to stay below 63% of GDP in fiscal 2028, an improvement from the previous estimate of 65%. On the external front, Fitch sees Thailand's position as still strong, expecting the current account to post a temporary deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2026 before returning to a surplus of 1.5% in 2027. InnovestX sees this as positive for the Thai stock market, particularly in spurring foreign capital to flow back into big-cap stocks, commercial banks such as Bangkok Bank, KTB, and Kasikornbank, and in lowering the financial costs of listed companies, especially the finance group such as Muangthai Capital, Srisawad, and TIDLOR, as well as attracting long-term investment into future industries, including industrial estates such as Amata and WHA, power plants such as Gulf, GPSC, BGRIM, and Gunkul, and electronics components such as Hana and KCE, for a total of 14 top picks. However, it views that although the Fitch news is positive, it may support the market only in the short term, given lingering external negatives including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as volatility from global trade policy. It therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy, waiting to accumulate rather than chasing prices.