Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited

Shares of Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited, or HANA, rose 1.95% to 52.25 baht on trading value of 513.69 million baht, after Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited estimated that normal profit for the third quarter of 2026 will come in at about 317 million baht, up 733% from the same period a year earlier. It expects third-quarter 2026 revenue to grow about 10% from the previous quarter, accelerating from growth of 9% in the second quarter of 2026 and 2% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by the IC business and a recovery in demand in the PCBA business. The gross margin is expected to rise to 11.2% from 10.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and 6% in the third quarter of 2025, even though SG&A expenses are expected to increase 25% from the same period a year earlier. If it comes in as expected, normal profit for the first nine months of 2026 will account for about 62% of the full-year profit forecast. Krungsri Securities maintains its 2026 normal profit forecast at 995 million baht, up 24% from a year earlier, and expects profit to accelerate by another 44% in 2027. It also maintains its Buy recommendation with a target price of 64.60 baht, based on a 2027 P/E of 40 times.

Kasikorn Securities stated that the World Bank recommends Thailand accelerate its use of AI to boost productivity and escape the middle-income trap, after finding that only 12% of Thai businesses use AI, compared with 43% in the United States. The government should urgently develop workforce skills, establish clear regulations, and ensure energy security for data centers. Meanwhile, Thailand's manufacturing base, services sector, and AI hardware supply chain are key strengths. The brokerage views this as structurally positive for the industrial estate, utilities, power plant, digital infrastructure, and electronics sectors, such as WHA, AMATA, WHAUP, GULF, BGRIM, DELTA, KCE, and HANA.

Kanthara Ladawan na Ayudhya, an executive director at Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, said on the stock news program Stock Market Insight that the Thai stock market still faces its main pressure from rising US government bond yields and the direction of global crude oil prices. If Brent crude holds above 102 US dollars per barrel, that would be an important support level from which prices could rebound, but if it falls below 100 US dollars and moves around the low 90s, that would ease concerns and be more positive for the market. Oil prices are the most important variable reflecting the severity of war and geopolitics, which in turn affects inflation and interest rates. If oil prices decline, foreign fund flows are expected to return to the Thai stock market. As for the recent selling by foreign investors, he views it as stemming from the rise in bond yields rather than concerns over domestic flooding. Currently, cumulative net foreign buying stands at around 10 billion baht. As for the electronics sector, although it has faced selling pressure from concerns over revenue and delays in chip deliveries, market demand remains high. KCE and HANA still have upward trends, while DELTA is a market-leading stock and a global megatrend, with its share price still below the fundamental value that FSS estimates at 290 baht. As for commercial banks such as TISCO, which is preparing to report earnings among the first, the initial assessment is that results may be flat. In the recent period, bank stocks rose more than 30% before facing profit-taking that reduced returns to 25-26%. The standout stock that FSS recommends is I-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC, which operates a pet food business, with a next-year target price based on fundamentals of 21.30 baht, as net profit is expected to gradually recover.

Yuanta Securities assesses that electronics stocks have already passed their bottom and are entering a period of accelerating profit, believing the earnings cycle still has room to run for another 12 months because AI demand is spreading from GPU and Memory into Networking, Optical, Power, Cooling, PCB and EMS. Q3/2026 will be a key proving point, with mid-cap stocks' profits likely to accelerate on recovering utilization and margins, making second-tier names in the sector stand out. The research team maintains an Overweight on the sector and is shifting focus from AI Leaders to stocks whose earnings are still in the early stage of recovery, selecting HANA as Top Pick with a BUY rating and a target price of 60.25 baht, followed by SMT at BUY with a target price of 8.40 baht, and CCET at BUY with a target price of 11.30 baht, on earnings upside and valuation catch-up, while DELTA and KCE are better suited to trading. As for signals to start watching, there are three: a slowdown in hyperscaler capex, orders and utilization ceasing to accelerate, and 2027–2028 earnings estimates beginning to be revised down. If these signals occur together, that would be the point at which the share price cycle may end ahead of earnings.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) assesses that Thailand's hosting of the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, to be held from 12-18 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, will be a positive factor for the Thai stock market. It marks Thailand's return as host after 35 years, having last hosted in 1991, and more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries are expected. Thailand is presenting the concept "A New Horizon for Thailand: Empowering People, Strengthening Readiness for Change," and will push four main issues: the transition to digital and AI, the role of middle-sized countries in a multipolar world, coping with climate change, and preparing the economy for an aging society. Yuanta's research team cites the case study of Indonesia, which hosted in 2018, finding that the JCI Index rose 2.8% in the one month after the meetings and outperformed MSCI EM, MSCI DM and MSCI ACWI, which delivered negative returns during that period. It therefore sees the SET Index as likely to outperform regional markets. The digital and AI theme is positive for SMT, HANA, CCET, AMATA, WHA, DITTO and SKY, while the middle-sized countries theme, aimed at supporting SMEs, is positive for KBANK, SCB, KTB, SAWAD and MTC. The climate theme is positive for GUNKUL, SSP, GULF, DITTO and TEAMG, and the aging society theme is positive for BDMS, BH, BCH and CHG. It also sees the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers, namely AOT, THAI, BA, ERW, CENTEL, MINT and AWC, with several large concerts choosing to hold events in Thailand during November-December providing continued support.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, has maintained its SET index target for the end of 2026 at 1,680-1,750 points, assessing that the Thai stock market in the fourth quarter of 2026 is likely to recover strongly, driven by the start of a new investment cycle powered by AI technology, production base relocation, and energy security. As a result, credit growth in Asia has accelerated to 8.5% year-on-year, the highest level in 18 years. Meanwhile, Krungsri research has raised its forecast for Thailand's 2026 GDP to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment expected to expand 8.6% and exports expanding 14.0% year-on-year. Earnings of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 hit a record high, growing 12% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion, the longest streak since the third quarter of 2011. Krungsri Securities therefore recommends an overweight position in three main themes: stocks benefiting from the Asia-Thailand CAPEX Cycle, stocks with potential for NTM re-ratings, and stocks benefiting from a super El Niño. Its top picks for the fourth quarter are TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA, and KBANK, and it also recommends keeping an eye on mid-small cap stocks such as THAI HANA and ERW.

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP growth this year to 2% from 1.3%. TTBB Wealth Securities said the upgrade was driven by exports of AI-related goods and investment in data centers, which helped offset the impact of higher energy prices. For 2027 and 2028, Thailand's economy is expected to expand by 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Risks to watch include conflict in the Middle East, higher US import tariffs, a weak tourism sector, the effects of a severe El Niño that could hit farmers' incomes, and household debt as high as 87%. Although the upward revision to the GDP forecast is a positive factor, growth remains concentrated in only a few industries, so the research team is using a selective strategy, focusing on export groups with strong growth and groups that benefit from data center investment, namely DELTA, KCE, HANA, STECON, GULF, GUNKUL, BGRIM and GPSC.

Long-term US bond yields have surged to their highest level in 24 years, pressuring the baht to weaken against a continuously strengthening US dollar. Kasikorn Research Center reported that the 10-year bond yield reached 5.349%, the highest since April 2002, while the 30-year bond yield also climbed to its highest level since May 2002, amid expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates again before the end of this year. TTB Wealth noted that the widening gap between Thai and US bond yields is the main factor pressuring the baht to weaken to 33.68 baht per US dollar, causing foreign investment flows to continue exiting the Thai capital market. Meanwhile, Krungsri reported that the 2-year bond yield rose 0.01% to 4.84% and the 10-year rose 0.03% to 5.31%, and recommended stocks with clear profit growth, namely AWC, KCE, and DELTA. Kasikornthai reported that US bond yields maturing in 5 to 30 years rose 0.07 to 0.12%, reflecting concerns over inflation and the fiscal deficit, while medium- to long-term Thai bonds rose only 0.02 to 0.04% in response. It expects the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% in December 2026 and March 2027, reaching a level of 4.50%, while Thailand is expected to keep its policy rate at 1.00% through the end of 2026. The weaker baht also directly benefits electronics export stocks, which are supported by both the currency and strong order books. Notable stocks include DELTA, KCE, and HANA.

Globlex Securities, or GBS, expects the Thai stock index in October 2026 to move in a volatile Sideway Down pattern, with a trading range of 1,520-1,600 points. The main pressure comes from global WTI crude oil prices surging past 100 dollars per barrel amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, military confrontations in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with OPEC+ production controls, before prices fell back below 90 dollars per barrel after G7 intervention and Saudi Arabia helping to cool the rally. Miss Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director of Globlex Securities, said inflation pressure prompted the Bank of Japan to raise its policy interest rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years, while investors worry the FED may raise rates another one to two times this year after already hiking once. The market also faced net foreign capital outflows of about 20,000-25,000 million baht in September and temporary impact from flooding, which Kasikorn Research Center estimated caused preliminary damage of 7,000-17,000 million baht. Mr Watcharain Jongyanyong, Director of the Research Department at Globlex Securities, recommended an investment strategy in two groups of standout stocks: stocks benefiting from post-flood repairs, recommending GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, TASCO, DCC and DRT, and export stocks with continued growth prospects, recommending STA, TEGH, NER, AAI, ITC, TU, CCET, HANA, KCE and DELTA.

TTB Wealth stated that the widening gap between Thai and US bond yields has pressured the baht to weaken, recently standing at 33.68 THB/USD, causing foreign fund flows to continue flowing out. However, the weaker baht benefits several groups. The electronics export group gains from both the weak baht and strong order volumes; preferred stocks are DELTA, KCE, and HANA. The food export group stands out for high dividends and still-laggard prices; preferred stocks are TU and ITC. The tourism group benefits from entering the high season for tourism; preferred stocks are AOT, ERW, CENTEL, and MINT, making a total of 9 beneficiary stocks.

Pie Securities reported that US non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate came in below analyst expectations, pushing bond yields lower and supporting US stock markets, with the DJIA closing up 250 points, or 0.49%, and the S&P500 closing up 0.7%. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil fell 0.06% after European leaders planned to release strategic oil reserves, with Europe's release volume at 100 million barrels, equivalent to just 5 days of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz compared with 20 million barrels per day. The standout gainers on Friday night were semiconductor stocks. For the Thai stock market, Pie Securities estimates the SET index range at 1560 to 1580 points, viewing the market as having moved past flood concerns, with foreign investors beginning to sell less on a net basis. It recommends a short-term strategy of trading TECH stocks in the DELTA HANA KCE group, supported by the rise in US semiconductor stocks. Recommended stocks include CPN with a target price of 80 baht and WHA with a target price of 5.6 baht.

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

The analyst team at Krungsri Securities has raised its recommendation on the electronic components sector to Bullish from Neutral, expecting every company in the group to post stronger earnings in the third quarter of 2026 than in the second quarter, with momentum continuing through the fourth quarter of 2026 and into 2027. The brokerage expects the industry's combined profit to grow 52% in 2027, accelerating from 42% in 2026, driven by demand for both AI-related and non-AI products. It recommends buying all three stocks under coverage: DELTA with a target price of 320 baht and KCE with a target price of 97 baht, naming them top picks on the theme of product price increases, which should deliver the strongest net profit per share growth in 2027. DELTA is expected to post profit growth of 51% in 2027, up from 42% in 2026, while KCE is seen growing from 77% in 2026 to 82% in 2027, and HANA from 24% in 2026 to 45% in 2027. The brokerage also raised its earnings forecasts for KCE by 5% for 2026 and by 28% for 2027 to reflect its positive view that KCE is entering a sustained cycle of product price increases, including one more price increase in October 2026 on top of the two previously expected in July 2026 and January 2027. Among non-AI stocks, it still prefers KCE over HANA because KCE operates further upstream and owns its own laminate factory, giving it better control over raw material costs.

The Investment Analysts Association, or IAA, estimates that the SET Index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will move within a range of 1,537 to 1,683 points and is expected to close the year 2026 at 1,680 points. Sombut Naravuttichai, secretary-general of the association, said the survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 companies has not yet incorporated the impact of the flood situation, and puts the SET Index target for the end of 2027 at 1,727 points. It also forecasts average market EPS of 103.38 baht for 2026 and 104.29 baht for 2027, representing average EPS growth of 16.41% in 2026. Five stocks are recommended by four or more research houses in agreement: BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF and CRC. The association recommends increasing weighting in tourism, healthcare, banking, power plants, utilities, commerce and electronics, while most analysts advise avoiding energy and petrochemical stocks, airlines and property. Wichit Arayapisit, senior director of the securities analysis department at Kasikorn Securities, said the firm has raised its SET Index target for the end of 2027 to 1,680 points from 1,620 points, and estimates EPS this year at 110 baht per share, while next year it is expected to fall about 5% to 105 baht per share. It recommends a defensive strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, favouring electronics such as DELTA, KCE and HANA, power plants such as GULF and GPSC, banks such as KTB and KKP, and hotels and tourism such as CENTEL and AWC.

Shares of Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited, or HANA, rose 5.39%, trading at 53.75 baht in the afternoon, up 2.75 baht, after touching a high of 54.00 baht during the session, with turnover of 2.39658 billion baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) recommends buying with a target price of 63.00 baht at the end of 2027. It expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to recover to 305 million baht, improving both year on year and quarter on quarter, driven by better margins, a smaller loss at PMS after production was shifted to Chinese manufacturers, rising orders from Phononic, and a weaker baht. As a result, core profit for the first nine months of this year stands at 686 million baht, up 67% year on year, accounting for 70% of the research house's full-year profit estimate. KGI also expects core profit in the fourth quarter of 2026 to rise both year on year and quarter on quarter, with a continuously improving trend in 2027, when it forecasts growth of 44% on higher sales and gross margin. It sees earnings continuing to recover on the back of growing AI adoption, after HANA won orders related to cooling solutions, data transmission apps, and solid-state transformers.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends that investors raise their cash holdings to 30% - 40% of their portfolios and shift strategy toward seeking out "stocks resilient to selling pressure" to cope with pressure on the Thai capital market from both domestic and foreign sources, particularly the selling by foreign investors who dumped Thai stocks for 7 consecutive trading days between September 22 and 30, totaling more than 30,572 million baht, pushing trading value to exceed 100 billion baht. The safe-haven stocks are divided into two main groups. The first group benefits from the weak baht amid foreign selling, namely CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA. The second group consists of low-volatility stocks entering their high season (Defensive & Healthcare), namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9. Meanwhile, the 5 standout stocks and DRs recommended to cope with the volatile market conditions are AAPL80, on the positive factor of the upcoming launch of 3 new smartphone models in the middle of this month; GOOGL01, on positive sentiment from the launch of the AI model "GEMINI 4 ARGON" that has risen to number 1 in the world; BDMS, on its third-quarter 2026 operating results that are clearly recovering, with revenue in July-August growing 8-9% compared with the same period last year, while the share price remains a laggard; CK, after the unlocking of the barcode law issue supports progress on the 2027 budget and new bidding projects, along with receiving dividends from its subsidiaries BEM, CKP and TTW; and ITC, whose fourth-quarter 2026 profit trend is expected to recover strongly compared with the previous quarter and which is a stock that directly benefits from the weakening baht trend.

Asia Plus Securities warns that the Thai economy is facing multiple compounding negative factors at once. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks on a net basis for seven consecutive trading days, totaling 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, with only four SET100 stocks closing higher. The main pressure comes from the 10-year US government bond yield, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while US inflation remains above the 2.0% target after the August 2026 PCE index expanded 3.4%. Domestically, the Royal Irrigation Department increased water discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam to 2,500 cubic meters per second and expects water from Nakhon Sawan to reach 3,000 cubic meters per second on October 2. It estimates flood damage over one week could reach 5 billion to 10 billion baht and could push third-quarter 2026 GDP down to 2.1% to 2.2%. At the same time, during Golden Week from October 1 to 7, Thailand faces image risks from flooding and airport baggage problems, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 67.45%, near the 70% fiscal discipline ceiling. The research team recommends shifting strategy from seeking rising stocks to seeking stocks resilient to selling pressure, and raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of the portfolio, choosing stocks that benefit from a weak baht such as CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA, along with low-volatility and healthcare names such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9.

Electronics sector stocks rose sharply across the board on September 29, moving against the decline in the Thai stock index. KCE Electronics Public Company Limited, or KCE, climbed 11.07%, or 7.50 baht, to close at 75.25 baht. Next came Cal-Comp Electronics (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or CCET, up 4.42%, or 0.40 baht, to close at 9.45 baht, and Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited, or HANA, up 2.44%, or 1.25 baht, to close at 52.50 baht. Naphan Jaisaen, deputy manager of the research department and a fundamental investment analyst covering capital markets at Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited, said KCE received positive news flow from negotiations to develop printed circuit boards, or PCBs, jointly with Tesla for use in humanoid robot projects, artificial intelligence technology, and communication systems. He assessed that a price of 60 to 65 baht reflects value from the existing business and product price increases, while 70 to 75 baht reflects orders tied to Tesla, and 80 to 85 baht reflects the chance of winning orders related to AI technology. He recommended waiting to accumulate shares in the 60 to 65 baht range. As for HANA, he said it has already traded on the AI story ahead of actual earnings figures, giving a price range of 50 to 55 baht and recommending waiting for a pullback before buying. Meanwhile, an analysis by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Public Company Limited recommended buying KCE with a target price of 104 baht and raised its target price for HANA to 61 baht from 42 baht, while lifting its profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 31% respectively.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the Election Commission's use of barcodes and QR codes on constituency MP ballots on 8 February 2026 does not violate the constitution, after the Ombudsman filed a petition arguing that the codes could be traced back to individual voters and would breach the principle of secret voting. The court found that in practice tracing is extremely difficult and that adequate safeguards are in place. That election therefore remains valid and does not need to be rerun, and the court merely recommended considering alternative security measures for future elections. The outcome removes the most severe scenario the capital markets had feared, namely a nationwide annulment of the election leading to a political and policy vacuum. With the ruling of no wrongdoing, it is expected to be positive for overall market sentiment and for foreign investor confidence thanks to reduced political risk, especially for large-cap stocks with high foreign holdings and sectors that depend on continuity of government policy, such as construction contractors, power, industrial estates and banks, since the government can continue administering the country as normal. The investment themes that benefit most include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, power producers GULF, GPSC, BGRIM and GUNKUL, contractors STECON, CK, PYLON and INSET, banks KBANK, KTB and KKP, and component makers DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, in overall trading yesterday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,594.30 points, down 8.07 points, while Thai Airways, or THAI, closed at 6.05 baht, down 0.10 baht or 1.36%, amid a backlog of more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage. Thai Airways management explained that the main cause was a shortage of manpower, especially baggage handling teams and staff holding ground operation licences who were affected by flooding and unable to travel to work. In addition, Bangkok is Thai Airways' main aviation hub, so when a large number of employees are affected at the same time, the operating system comes under heavy pressure. The issue arose while Thai Airways is pressing ahead with its rehabilitation plan and its operating results have begun returning to profit. What the market and investors must therefore monitor from here on is not just the numbers in the financial statements, but also the efficiency of the operating system and the ability to cope with a crisis.

Kasikornbank Securities said Thailand is accelerating negotiations on a Thailand-EU FTA, which is now more than two-thirds complete, with a decisive round of talks set for September 28. It is also reviving the Thailand-UAE CEPA after a hiatus of more than three years. Both agreements would help expand exports, attract FDI and diversify markets toward Europe and the Middle East, though conclusions are still needed on sensitive issues covering agriculture, medicine and regulations. The research team views this as a positive for sentiment toward food exporters, autos, electronics and industrial estates such as CPF, TU, DELTA, KCE, HANA, AMATA and WHA, but the impact on earnings will become clear only after negotiations conclude and the agreements take effect.

Nakorn Hataisattha, Head of Retail Investment Strategy Research and Economist at CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, said on the Stock News Market Focus programme on 28 September 2026 that the flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces this time differs from the great flood of 2011, because Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the Thai economy, making it a hugely important area for the country's economic activity. However, water levels in northern dams in 2026 stand at around 70%, compared with about 94% during the 2011 crisis, so the overall national risk still differs from that past event. Nakorn estimates the SET index could weaken below 1,600 points on selling driven by flood worries, but if the flooding eases within about four to five days, the market's correction could be a chance to buy certain stock groups. If the situation drags on beyond four to five days, the downside risk for the stock market will increase. Groups likely to come under pressure include property, stocks with factories in at-risk areas including electronic components such as KCE, insurers burdened by claims, and commercial banks on concerns about ECL provisioning. Retail stocks, meanwhile, may get a short-term positive sentiment boost from demand for consumer goods and home repair products. For high-dividend bank stocks such as TISCO and KKP, they could be an option if the situation eases quickly, with KKP also supported by the expansion of its investment platform business. CGSI believes that if the index falls below 1,600 points, the electronic components group is attractive to buy, especially DELTA, which still has a positive outlook from growing Thai exports of electronics and electrical appliances, and from the global investment cycle in AI, digital infrastructure, chips and memory, which continues to expand. If DELTA's share price falls sharply because of the floods, which are a one-off event, CGSI sees it as a chance to accumulate. Investors who do not want much volatility can consider HANA and KCE, and Nakorn said he likes HANA if the price falls to an attractive level.

Analysts at Kasikorn Securities remain positive on the electronics group in the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting second-half 2026 earnings to accelerate notably, led by DELTA benefiting from capacity utilization and recovering margins, HANA from the ramp-up of AI-related products, and KCE from higher PCB sales volumes and upward ASP adjustments. AI and data centers are the main structural growth drivers underpinning continued demand for power electronics, advanced PCB, PCBA, and semiconductor components, supported by high demand from hyperscalers, gradually easing component constraints, an improved product mix, and a weaker baht, which is a positive factor for exporters' gross margins. However, risks remain from high raw material costs, particularly copper, fiberglass, copper clad laminate, and various electronic components, as well as the uneven recovery of end markets unrelated to AI, especially the automotive and EV segments. Strategically, the analysts recommend gradually accumulating electronics stocks on market dips, with DELTA rated Buy at a 300 baht target price, HANA rated Buy at a 56 baht target price, and KCE rated Hold at a 60 baht target price.

Mr. Wikit Thirawannarat, IAA, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Investment Strategy at Bualuang Securities, unveiled a portfolio-adjustment strategy for the final stretch of the year in the fourth quarter of 2026, recommending investors rotate among sectors in step with the market. Stocks with their main revenue from overseas remain the key driver, because domestic purchasing power alone is not enough to move the market. The groups that outperformed the market in the third quarter of 2026 were those tied to the global economy and commodities, including petrochemicals, refineries, shipping stocks such as RCL and PRM, agricultural and food-export names such as TVO, TU and ITC, and electronic components such as KCE and HANA. Meanwhile, groups tied to domestic consumption, such as telecoms ADVANC and TRUE and retailers CPALL and CPAXT, rose more slowly than the market. Three investment themes lead the way. First, refineries and petrochemicals, where supply is tight and global demand is strong, with TOP trading at a price-to-book ratio of only about 0.7 times and paying consistent dividends. Second, power plants, expected to be the star performer in the fourth quarter, driven by the build-out of data centers and production bases by foreign companies, clarity on direct PPA contracts, and the power development plan. Third, energy and technology infrastructure, which benefits from transmission systems, substations, smart grids, smart meters, rooftop solar and submarine cable projects. As for industrial estates, after a big run-up in the first and second quarters of 2026, they are expected to enter a period of consolidation and rebound within a sideways range. On external factors, the surge in bond yields worldwide is a highlight to watch; if yields start to fall, that would be a key turning point for the stock market. The Bank of Japan may keep raising rates through the middle of next year, ending at around 1.75 to 2.0 percent, South Korea at 3.5 percent, Europe at 3.0 percent in the first quarter of next year, and the US Federal Reserve may hike another one to two times. As for new US tariffs, the assessment is that they will target specific rival countries rather than be imposed across the board, so Thailand is likely to escape them and may even benefit from cheaper imported raw materials such as soybeans and soybean meal, which would lower animal-feed costs and support meat-export groups such as chicken and pork. On investment strategy, short-term traders are advised to rotate through sector rotation, alternating between banks and commodities, while long-term investors are advised to focus on infrastructure and power plants, with standout large-cap stocks capable of winning projects and co-investing in infrastructure being GULF and PTT.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is starting to gain supportive themes after Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness from Negative to Stable, while affirming the sovereign rating at BBB+. As a result, Fitch Ratings, Moody's Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings all now hold a Stable outlook on Thailand. Fitch views the improved government stability as reducing political uncertainty, and expects Thailand's economy to expand 2.3% in 2026, close to 2.4% in 2025, supported by investment in AI and data centers as well as consumption stimulus measures. It also expects general government debt to stay below 63% of GDP in fiscal 2028, an improvement from the previous estimate of 65%. On the external front, Fitch sees Thailand's position as still strong, expecting the current account to post a temporary deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2026 before returning to a surplus of 1.5% in 2027. InnovestX sees this as positive for the Thai stock market, particularly in spurring foreign capital to flow back into big-cap stocks, commercial banks such as Bangkok Bank, KTB, and Kasikornbank, and in lowering the financial costs of listed companies, especially the finance group such as Muangthai Capital, Srisawad, and TIDLOR, as well as attracting long-term investment into future industries, including industrial estates such as Amata and WHA, power plants such as Gulf, GPSC, BGRIM, and Gunkul, and electronics components such as Hana and KCE, for a total of 14 top picks. However, it views that although the Fitch news is positive, it may support the market only in the short term, given lingering external negatives including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as volatility from global trade policy. It therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy, waiting to accumulate rather than chasing prices.

The Ministry of Commerce reported Thailand's trade figures for August 2026, with exports expanding 24.3% year-on-year. Although this was below the market expectation of 24.8% year-on-year, it accelerated from 21.6% year-on-year in July 2026. Meanwhile, imports expanded 25.1% year-on-year, below market expectations and below July 2026's 30.0% year-on-year and 36.7% year-on-year respectively. Among export goods that grew well in the agricultural product group were fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit, up 24.0%; rubber, up 23.2%; fresh, chilled and frozen shrimp, up 18.8%; and processed chicken, up 10.5%. In the agro-industrial product group, pet food grew 17.5% and canned and processed seafood grew 4.8%. In the industrial product group, video and audio equipment and parts grew 1,155.7%; telephones, equipment and parts grew 151.2%; electrical transformers and parts grew 55.6%; computers, equipment and parts grew 42.1%; electrical appliances and parts grew 40.9%; integrated circuit boards grew 19.2%; and gems and jewelry, excluding gold, grew 3.2%, returning to growth after contracting the previous month. The research team at Phillip Securities sees this as positive sentiment for export stocks in the categories that grew well, as well as stocks related to those export goods, and views it as a boost for industrial estate and utility stocks. It selected 17 standout stocks: in the agricultural product group, CPF, NER, STA and TEGH; in the agro-industrial product group, AAI, ITC and TU; in the industrial product group, CCET, DELTA, HANA, HTECH and KCE; and in the industrial estate and utility group, AMATA, BGRIM, GPSC, ROJNA and WHA.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's exports in August 2026 were worth 34.618 billion dollars, expanding 24.3% year-on-year, the highest growth in 56 months since December 2021. Imports were worth 37.101 billion dollars, expanding 25.1%, resulting in a trade deficit of 2.482 billion dollars for August. The main supporting factors came from electronics and technology products, continued expansion of exports to the United States, and the recovery of fruit exports along with potential agricultural and food products such as pet food. For the first eight months of this year, total exports were worth 266.149 billion dollars, expanding 18.9%, while total imports were 303.986 billion dollars, expanding 36.1%, leaving a trade deficit of 37.837 billion dollars. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office still forecasts 2026 exports at 5% to 11%, with a midpoint of 8%, and will review the target again in November. But given the eight-month growth rate of 18.9%, full-year 2026 exports are estimated to expand by as much as 15%, representing a record high of 391.2674 billion dollars, which would require average monthly exports of 31 billion dollars over the remaining four months. Krungsri Securities said Thailand's August export figures were close to market expectations, but high imports still pushed Thailand to a trade deficit of 2.48 billion dollars. Notable expanding export categories included electronic components, rubber, shrimp, chicken, and pet food. It holds a positive view on DELTA, HANA, GFPT, ITC, and AAI, recommending trading with a focus on DELTA. Phillip Securities sees positive sentiment for export stocks in categories that grew well in August, as well as stocks in the industrial estate and utilities groups.

Pie Securities stated that crude oil prices falling below the three-digit level for both Brent and WTI is a factor easing pressure on global bond yields and supporting Anti Oil and Non Bank stocks, after investors began to expect that the situation between the United States and Iran will move toward greater easing. Last night, Brent crude closed down 1.2% after reports that Saudi Arabia will reopen its oil pipeline. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 185 points, or 0.4%, on concerns that high oil prices could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates, and the latest CME Fed reading gives about 54% weight to the Fed raising rates at its October meeting. This morning, the KOSPI rose 1.6%, supporting Thai SEMI stocks such as DELTA, HANA, and KCE. Pie Securities estimates today's SET range at 1590 to 1620 points and recommends buying BA with a target price of 22.4 baht, citing the rise in passengers passing through Samui Airport in July and August both year on year and quarter on quarter. It also recommends buying TIDLOR with a target price of 24 baht, citing second-half 2026 profit trends expected to grow as much as 25% year on year.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) has issued an "outperform" rating on the electronics sector, selecting DELTA as its Top Pick for the third quarter of 2026, citing its share price lagging the sector and its strongest exposure to the AI theme. KCE and HANA stand to benefit from higher PCB selling prices and their expansion into High Density PCBA and Power Management. First-half sector profit came in at 16 billion baht, up 46.2% year on year, with growth spread across nearly every company, and the bulk of the profit came from DELTA, which benefited from greater recognition of revenue tied to AI and data centers than a year earlier. Other companies showed a picture of revenue recovering more strongly in the second quarter of 2026. For the third-quarter 2026 outlook, DELTA's profit is expected to rise quarter on quarter on higher AI product shipments, helped by a low base in the second quarter of 2026. In the U.S. stock market, investors are watching the CPU stock theme after GPT-6 Astra shifted fully into Agentic AI competition, forcing the CPU-to-GPU ratio up to 1:1, which supports the appeal of INTC and AMD. Cybersecurity names such as CRWD and PANW are also looking more attractive amid the push to enforce rules governing AI usage.

Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.

Electronics sector stocks rose after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to establish an AI Force and appoint a new AI Czar to oversee and support U.S. AI development, reaffirming a pro-growth approach under which the government will not issue rules that obstruct industry growth and will use existing criminal and civil laws to handle cases of AI misuse. Trump views AI as the Next Industrial Revolution and estimates it could eventually reach as much as 25% of the U.S. economy. As of 10:07 a.m., HANA gained 4.19%, up 2.00 baht to 49.75 baht, with trading value of 391.47 million baht. DELTA gained 2.07%, up 5.00 baht to 246.00 baht, with trading value of 1.1237 billion baht. CCET gained 1.69%, up 0.15 baht to 9.00 baht, with trading value of 66.44 million baht. KCE gained 1.15%, up 0.75 baht to 65.75 baht, with trading value of 140.37 million baht. And SMT gained 0.88%, up 0.05 baht to 5.75 baht, with trading value of 10.60 million baht. Krungsri Securities said it holds a positive view on the AI Investment Cycle because it reflects a U.S. policy direction still focused on accelerating AI innovation and infrastructure investment rather than increasing regulatory burden, consistent with earlier policies that accelerated AI adoption, cybersecurity, and high-security computing infrastructure. The positive sentiment extends to the global AI supply chain and connects to Thai stocks in the DELTA, HANA, KCE, and CCET theme, as well as GULF/GPSC and the data center infrastructure group. For DELTA, the recommendation is Buy with a 2027 target price of 320 baht, after it passed the hedging period for bondholder status, combined with an AI CAPEX picture driving demand for AI-related products, supporting a rapid recovery in normal third-quarter 2026 profit, up 33% year on year and up 54% quarter on quarter, and set to reach a quarterly peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 forecast. Profit for 2027-2028 is expected to accelerate by 51.4% and 37.7%, with upside potential, while the stock has corrected about 35% from its recent peak. For HANA, the recommendation is Buy with a 2027 target price of 64.6 baht, after a positive surprise of no cash-strapped status last week, combined with support from an accelerating AI CAPEX cycle and China's economic stimulus focused on supporting smart devices, offering upside potential. Profit is expected to grow 23.7% in 2026 and 44% in 2027, while the stock trades at a 2027 forecast PER of 29.5 times and a low PEG of about 0.67 times.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.

Tisco Securities has upgraded its investment weighting for the electronics sector to Overweight from Neutral, citing better-than-expected data center CAPEX spending in 2026, stronger second-half trends across all companies, and the sector's underperformance of 33% relative to the market in the recent period, which it believes has already priced in much of the market's remaining concerns. The research team raised its recommendation on DELTA to Buy with a fair value of 282 baht, after the market has already absorbed negative factors. Although raw material shortages, uncertainty over royalty fees, and the recent bond issuance by parent company Delta Taiwan remain pressures in the second half, the 37% decline in the share price is believed to have already reflected downside risks. Meanwhile, HANA was upgraded to Buy with its fair value raised to 61.50 baht, reflecting greater confidence after HANA passed all qualification requirements from end customers to generate AI revenue in the third quarter of 2026, with new HDI PCB expected to be a significant revenue driver in 2027. KCE retains its Hold rating with a fair value adjusted to 60.25 baht, as the share price has fully reflected its prospects, with humanoid robots and capacity expansion being the clearest supporting factors for 2028.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.