Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited

DBS Vickers assesses that the Ministry of Finance's revival of the exit fee on departures from the kingdom, at 1,000 baht per trip collected through airline tickets and applied to both Thai and foreign travellers, is a negative sentiment for the tourism and airline sectors. Although this issue surfaced in late April 2026, at that time it applied only to Thais and could not be implemented. This time it is more likely to proceed because a public consultation has already opened. The research team cites 2025 figures showing about 15 million Thais travelled abroad and roughly 28 million foreign tourists excluding Malaysians. It expects that if the fee is actually collected, it could be worth as much as 43 billion baht per year. At 1,000 baht per person per trip, that represents only 2.1% of tourist spending per trip of 48,000 baht per person based on 2025 data, and in 2027 airfares are expected to fall in line with oil prices, which would help soften the impact. The research team favours an overweight stance on the tourism sector, selecting CENTEL with a target of 48.00 baht and ERW with a target of 4.20 baht as top picks. For the aviation sector it also sees negative sentiment, ranking the affected stocks from most to least affected as AAV, AOT, BA and THAI. THAI and BA are moderately affected because they are full-service airlines whose fares are already high, while AAV, a low-cost carrier flying short-haul routes, will be hit harder, with average round-trip fares to Malaysia and Vietnam of 4,000 to 7,000 baht set to rise by 15% to 25%. However, Thai AirAsia derives 55% of its revenue domestically, which may offset some of the impact if Thais turn to travelling within the country more. As for AOT, with a target of 73.00 baht, the research team expects a secondary impact through PSC revenue from international outbound passengers and duty-free revenue if fewer Thais travel abroad, though foreign passengers are not expected to be much affected.

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports is pressing ahead with its plan to collect a fee from foreign tourists, known as the Thailand Tourism Fee, at a rate of 450 baht per person, applying only to foreign tourists entering Thailand by air. Results of an online public consultation that ended on 28 September 2026 found that 80.5% of respondents supported the draft announcement, while collection for arrivals by land and by sea will be delayed for one year. Revenue from the fee will be paid into the fund for the promotion of Thai tourism, with part used to provide insurance coverage for tourists who pay the fee and another part used to restore and develop tourist attractions. After deducting collection costs and insurance premiums, at least 8 billion baht is expected to remain for developing tourist sites and supporting Thai tourism. Dao Securities Thailand Public Company Limited assesses the matter as neutral. Previously, on 14 February 2023, the Cabinet approved a collection guideline of 300 baht per visit for tourists arriving by air and 150 baht per visit for arrivals by land and by sea, but the plan could not be implemented. This time the research team sees it as more feasible, as the 450 baht per person rate represents only 0.9% of tourist spending per trip, based on 2025 data showing average spending of 48,000 baht per person. On investment strategy, the team gives an overweight rating to the tourism sector, recommending a Buy on Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, with a target price of 48.00 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 RevPAR to grow 5% from the same period a year earlier, excluding Dubai, and fourth-quarter 2026 forward bookings to show RevPAR growth of 13%. It also recommends a Buy on The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, with a target price of 4.20 baht, while Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited likewise maintains a Buy with a target price of 4.20 baht. ERW is expected to open nine more Hop Inn hotels in 2026, bringing the total to 94 hotels and supporting profit growth of 8.0% in 2026 and 15% in 2027.

Trinity Securities has released its first calculation for the 1H27 review cycle, forecasting which stocks will be added to and removed from the SET50 and SET100 indices, based on data through September 30, and will wait for actual data through the end of November. The stocks expected to be added to the SET50 index are KCE, SPRC, IRPC and CENTEL, all four with 99.99% confidence. The stocks expected to be removed from the SET50 are LH, OSP, TIDLOR and MRDIYT, also with 99.99% confidence. The stocks expected to be added to the SET100 index are MBK, TTW and PSL, while STPI could slip in as the fourth if HANA unexpectedly drops out of the index. The stocks expected to be removed from the SET100 are AURA, QH and MOSHI, and HANA must avoid being placed on the Trading alert list throughout October and November. Strategically, Trinity recommends gradually buying for speculation the stocks certain to be added to the SET50 index, namely KCE, SPRC, IRPC and CENTEL, with KCE the most attractive because it has the largest market cap, and recommends avoiding stocks that may be removed from the SET50, namely LH, OSP, TIDLOR and MRDIYT, over the next one to two months. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities noted that the Prime Minister has ordered all agencies to accelerate preparations to host the 2026 World Bank-IMF meeting, which is expected to draw more than 10,000 participants from at least 19 countries, focusing on upgrading airports, airlines, visas, immigration, security and public health, and using this stage to attract investment and build confidence in the Thai economy. This is seen as positive sentiment for stocks related to travel, tourism, airports, hotels and convention centres, such as AOT, AWC, CENTEL and ERW.

The Structured Product team at Bualuang Securities recommends a Buy on Dip strategy using ELN products to lock in future stock entry prices while earning returns during the wait, viewing market volatility and the flood situation as an opportunity to select stocks with high Earnings Resilience and Recovery Visibility. The recommended underlying stocks include CRC in the retail sector, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to grow 31% year on year and whose 2027 Core Profit is expected to grow 10%, with a 1-month ELN on CRC at a 96% strike offering a yield of 10.05% per year. In the hospital sector, BDMS and BH are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 6% and 2% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on BDMS at a 97% strike offering a yield of 6.91% per year. In the tourism sector, CENTEL and AWC are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 31% and 33% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on AWC at a 95% strike offering a yield of 8.32% per year. And in the power plant sector, GULF and GUNKUL are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 46% and 35% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on GULF at a 97% strike offering a yield of 5.58% per year. Reference prices are as of October 5, 2026. Lessons from the 2011 floods show that the speed of profit recovery matters more than the initial impact, and many sectors can recover within roughly one quarter.

Dao Securities rates the tourism sector "overweight" after tourist arrivals in the week of September 27 to October 3 rebounded 8% WoW, better than expected thanks to the Golden Week period, with the increase driven mainly by travellers from China, India and Russia. Excluding Malaysian tourists, arrivals still rose 10% WoW and 6% YoY, while Chinese tourists rose 2% YoY, slowing from 19% YoY the previous week. The research team believes arrivals bottomed out in the second quarter of 2026 and will recover strongly in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the high season and several events in December 2026. It expects total arrivals in 2026 at 32 million, down 3% YoY from 33 million in 2025, which itself fell 7% YoY, and forecasts Chinese tourists in 2026 at 4.8 million, up 7% YoY from 4.5 million in 2025, which fell 34% YoY. The stocks that benefit, ranked by their share of domestic hotels from highest to lowest, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. CENTEL is the top pick with a target price of 48.00 baht, as third-quarter 2026 RevPAR excluding Dubai rose 5% YoY and fourth-quarter 2026 on-the-book bookings rose 13% YoY. ERW, with a target price of 4.20 baht, benefits from the World Bank and IMF meetings in October 2026 and Tomorrowland in December 2026, with bookings continuing to push the occupancy rate as high as 80% already.

Asia Plus Securities said in a research note that Thailand's tourism sector still looks set for solid growth. During China's Golden Week from September 27 to October 3, 2026, Thailand received 522,532 foreign arrivals, up 8% from the previous week, driven by 133,946 Chinese tourists, a rise of 42% from the prior week. Although foreign arrivals in the third quarter of 2026 fell 5% year on year, they rose 3.5% from the previous quarter, and excluding the Malaysian market the decline was only 0.9%. Key markets continued to expand, with China up 12%, Europe up 1.5%, the Middle East up 13% and the Americas up 1.5%. The standout point is that hotel revenue is still growing faster than visitor numbers. Forward booking data indicates that revenue per room for CENTEL and MINT is likely to rise about 10-13% from a year earlier, while ERW targets revenue growth of 7% from a year earlier. International passenger volume at AOT in July to September 2026 fell 1.9% year on year, in line with the foreign tourist trend when the Malaysian market is excluded. As for the next catalyst, the market is watching the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank from October 12 to 18, 2026. Large international events of this kind are likely to benefit hotel operators such as ERW, AWC and CENTEL more directly than airport or airline businesses. On investment strategy, the brokerage remains positive on Thailand's tourism group, picking CENTEL as its top stock on the back of strong hotel business profit trends, while AOT and ERW remain attractive as stocks that stand to gain from international events and the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector.

TTB Wealth stated that the widening gap between Thai and US bond yields has pressured the baht to weaken, recently standing at 33.68 THB/USD, causing foreign fund flows to continue flowing out. However, the weaker baht benefits several groups. The electronics export group gains from both the weak baht and strong order volumes; preferred stocks are DELTA, KCE, and HANA. The food export group stands out for high dividends and still-laggard prices; preferred stocks are TU and ITC. The tourism group benefits from entering the high season for tourism; preferred stocks are AOT, ERW, CENTEL, and MINT, making a total of 9 beneficiary stocks.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends a Selective Investment strategy, highlighting DRs linked to global technology stocks such as the Optical, CPU & AI Server, Semi Equipment, Cloud and Power groups, alongside Thai stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and the high season. Analysts note that the direction of US Federal Reserve policy continues to pressure the baht. If the terminal interest rate sits at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate weaker in a range of 35-37 baht per US dollar, or depreciate 4-10%, which is positive for the hospital group that treats foreign patients, such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9, as well as the tourism group like AOT, THAI and CENTEL, and the export group like TU, ITC and CPF. For the five standout stocks and interesting DRs, they include SHOP06, whose third-quarter earnings trend remains strong on the back of bringing AI to boost trading volume on its platform; MRVL06, which gets a boost from its Investor Day, where new technology is expected to be unveiled; ITC, which benefits from the weak baht and is awaiting progress on closing its merger deal in the fourth quarter of 2026; TRUE, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to expand prominently, with an interim dividend of 0.15 baht anticipated; and BH, whose revenue and patient numbers from the Middle East are recovering strongly, while the stock still has high upside. On fund flows, although foreign investors still hold Thai stocks including NVDRs amounting to 36.5% of market value, cumulative net buying since the start of the year has fallen from a peak of 75 billion baht to just 18 billion baht, after more than 50 billion baht in net selling over the past two months. However, in the latest trading session, foreign investors began switching to net buying through the NVDR channel to the tune of 2.66 billion baht, reflecting selective accumulation of individual stocks expected to post fourth-quarter 2026 earnings growth to capture the high season.

Kasikorn Securities stated that the Prime Minister has ordered all agencies to accelerate preparations for Thailand to host the World Bank-IMF meetings in 2026, which are expected to draw more than 10,000 participants from at least 19 countries. The focus is on upgrading airports, airlines, visas, immigration, security, and public health to accommodate leaders and senior executives, while using the forum as an opportunity to attract investment, expand trade, and build confidence in Thailand's economy over the long term. The brokerage views this as a positive sentiment for stocks related to travel, tourism, airports, hotels, and convention centers, such as AOT, AWC, CENTEL, and ERW, given the potential benefit from increased traffic and spending by attendees.

Asia Plus Securities said 10 standout stocks will benefit from the trend of a continuing weaker baht, divided into hospital groups that benefit from foreign patients, namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9; tourism groups that make it easier for foreign tourists to spend, namely AOT, THAI and CENTEL; and export groups that convert revenue back into baht at a higher rate, namely TU, ITC and CPF. The research department said the spread between the 10-year bond yield and Thailand's policy rate remains below its historical average, reflecting that the market still sees no clear signal of a change in interest rate direction. Meanwhile, factors from the United States, from the Fed's perspective, continue to pressure the baht. If the Fed's interest rate stands at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate in the range of 35 to 37 baht per dollar, or weaken from the current level by about 4% to 10%, if the end of the Fed's interest rate cycle has not yet arrived. On Thailand's water situation, the latest data indicates that many large reservoirs have water volumes exceeding capacity or near critical levels, such as Pa Sak Jolasid Dam at 110%, Nong Pla Lai Dam at 105% and Kaeng Krachan Dam at 102%. Meanwhile, medium and small reservoirs in many provinces, such as Chonburi, Trat, Ubon Ratchathani, Phrae and Phayao, have water volumes exceeding normal storage levels from 113% up to 159%. The point requiring closest monitoring is the area below Chao Phraya Dam, which has a water volume of 2,500 cubic meters per second, while it can hold 2,840 cubic meters per second.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) said in an analysis that the flood situation has widened, covering 30 provinces and 191 districts in Bangkok as of 1 October 2026, affecting 1.18 million households and about 3.35 million people. The impact on the economy remains limited, however, if the situation does not drag on and does not hit core production bases. The Bank of Thailand estimates the effect on GDP at about 0.03–0.10%, while the research team expects the impact on GDP to be no more than 0.1% and on SET earnings no more than 2%, far below the major floods of 2011. The key thing to watch is the length of production stoppages in the industrial sector rather than the amount of flooded area. At AMATA City Chonburi, about 150 factories were affected and 34 temporarily halted production, while KCE and HANA have some production bases in Ayutthaya. As for DELTA's plants in Bang Pu and Wellgrow, no water entered the factories and operations have returned to normal. Other groups saw fairly limited impact. Consumer finance firms are expected to see about a 2% hit to 2026 earnings for TIDLOR and MTC and 1% for SAWAD, while banks face their main risk from higher provisioning, with an estimated 1–2% impact on earnings, larger than the effect on interest income. BGRIM said its SPP power plants in Amata City Chonburi and its floating solar operations are still running normally. Bualuang sees the flood-driven volatility as a chance to gradually accumulate stocks with resilient earnings and quick recovery prospects, namely CRC, AWC, CENTEL, BDMS, BH, GULF, GUNKUL, DELTA, KCE and HANA, which still have support from demand for AI and data centers.

The Thai Airways board has ordered the removal of Chai Eamsiri from the CEO position and appointed Samrit to take over, after the flood crisis damaged its reputation and operations. The board also opened the way for a full fact-finding investigation and immediately changed the authority to sign binding commitments on behalf of the company. Most recently, Thai Airways signed a contract with EEC to proceed with the U-Tapao aircraft maintenance centre, investing 10 billion baht on 210 rai of land, targeting construction in 2027 and the opening of the centre in 2030, with capacity to service 90 aircraft per year and generate revenue of 4,000 to 5,000 million baht. It also issued relief measures for passengers affected by the floods, including flight changes, full refunds, and compensation for delayed baggage. Among other stocks to watch, MRDIYT hinted at bright third-quarter 2026 results driven by branch expansion, while OR teamed up with CENTEL to develop budget hotels, starting with six pilot locations at prices from 800 to 1,300 baht per night, aiming to expand to 50 locations by 2031. AWC filed a filing with the SEC to establish the AWR trust, expecting net cash flow of more than 30,000 million baht, and WP completed its share buyback in full, 1.5 million shares, or 2.94%, worth 57.08 million baht.

Natwarin Triphopsakul, Senior Director of the Equity Strategy Team at InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, assesses that the Thai stock market will remain volatile in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, amid an investment climate pressured by factors on all sides. These include the Fed's hawkish stance, which is keeping bond yields elevated at multi-year highs, causing fund flows to continue flowing out. This is compounded by energy prices that remain high due to prolonged geopolitical problems, and concerns over domestic flooding, which, although the impact on the economy is expected to be limited, remains an overhang factor creating negative sentiment toward the market. InnovestX therefore recommends a Selective Buy strategy, focusing on Buy on Dip through 3 trading themes with their own specific positive factors. These are: the Domestic Play theme, based on domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN, and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; the Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays theme, which benefits from stockpiling of essential goods during emergencies, comprising the commerce group CPALL, BJC, and CRC, extending to demand for home repairs after the waters recede, namely HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and the Tourism & Mega-Event Play theme, which is expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by factors ranging from China's Golden Week from October 1 to 7 and world-class events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, comprising the tourism group ERW, CENTEL, and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN, and CRC. On external factors, the United States reported August PCE and Core PCE at 3.4% and 3.0% year on year, respectively, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations, while real consumption expanded 0.6% from the previous month and ADP employment for September rose by 90,000 positions from 36,000 positions, reflecting that the economy remains strong but price pressures have not yet broadened, opening the door for the Fed to wait and assess more data. The market has reduced the odds of an October rate hike to about 35% from 70% last Monday. InnovestX still expects the Fed to raise rates in December and once more in early next year, but September NFP, CPI, and PPI must be monitored to assess the risk that the Fed may accelerate the pace of rate hikes. In China, the PBOC cut the PSL rate used to lend to state policy banks by 25 basis points to 1.50%, while increasing funding support for targeted economic sectors, and the government is subsidizing interest on first-home loans by 1% per year for no more than 5 years. However, the measures still focus on supporting the economy, while falling home prices continue to pressure purchasing power. InnovestX therefore maintains its forecast for China's 2026 GDP at 4.6% and views that the property sector may take at least another year to reach its bottom. Next week, attention will be on Thailand's September inflation, which InnovestX expects to accelerate from 2.53% year on year in the previous month, tracking higher oil and fresh food prices, as well as the final September services PMI for the United States, the eurozone, and Japan. Preliminary PMI readings reflect that the United States and the eurozone are accelerating, while Japan is slowing but still expanding. Also awaited is the report of the September FOMC meeting after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, with a focus on details of discussions about inflation risks, the strength of the economy, and the conditions that would lead to the next rate hike.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has unveiled plans to develop a first phase of six budget hotels together with Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL. OR will hold a 49% stake and CENTEL 51%. Five of the sites are at service stations and one is outside a service station. The first three branches, already under construction, are in Kanchanaburi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Songkhla, and are expected to open in the third quarter of next year. The other three, in Bangkok, Chonburi and Phuket, are undergoing environmental reports and will open in the second quarter of 2028. The six hotels use a combined investment budget of 700 million baht, with construction costs capped at no more than 1 million baht per room. Funding will be split 50% equity and 50% debt. The buildings will be five to six storeys tall, with average room sizes of 18 to 20 square metres and 79 rooms. The company targets a first-year occupancy rate of about 60%, rising to 60–70% in the second year, with a long-term goal of 75–80%. It estimates a gross profit margin of about 50%, an EBITDA margin of 40–45%, an EBIT margin of about 20%, and a net profit margin of no less than 10%. Room rates will range from 800 to 1,300 baht, with a loyalty programme linking Blue Plus Points and The ONE Points. Ratchasuda Rangsiyakul, Senior Executive Vice President of Special Business 1 at OR, said entering the hotel business will help lift traffic at its service stations from 3.9 million users per day to 5 million per day. The first six branches will serve as a pilot to test the system before expanding to a full 50 locations in 2031, and once the model proves successful the company will scale up through franchising. The joint venture will provide management services to a standard, and dealers in the group have already approached the company seeking to open hotels.

Chayut Krailatrattanasiri, Assistant Director of the Research Department at Land and Houses Securities, told the Vision team that the overall outlook for tourism stocks in the fourth quarter of 2026 is clearly quite positive. Although early in the quarter there was pressure from flooding, this is assessed as only a short-term impact. The main supporting factors come from China's Golden Week, a long holiday early in the fourth quarter that has helped drive Chinese tourist arrivals into Thailand higher, with a clear acceleration, as well as Thailand hosting the IMF and World Bank meetings in mid-October, a positive factor in terms of policy and economic activity that directly supports tourism stocks. The research team views hotels as the biggest beneficiaries of the recovery in tourist numbers, expecting fourth-quarter operating results and profits to grow outstandingly. Airlines also benefit, but their upside is limited by still-high oil costs. The three standout hotel stocks named as Top Picks are AWC, with a target price of 20 baht, which the research team is in the process of reviewing upward on structural positives from the establishment of AWR that will help unlock asset value and increase liquidity; ERW, with a target price of 80 baht, which is assessed as still offering upside for investment; and CENTEL, with a consensus target price of 50 baht.

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited assessed its investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, saying financial markets still face volatility from oil prices, inflation, interest rate direction and elevated bond yields, forcing investors to place greater weight on asset selection and investment timing. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX, said the firm raised its target for the Thai stock index in 2026 from 1,600 points to 1,700 points, after expecting market earnings per share in 2026 to grow about 22% and second-quarter economic data to be stronger than expected. He recommended a fourth-quarter strategy focused on stock selection rather than buying the whole market, viewing levels below 1,550 points as an accumulation point for fundamentally strong stocks such as AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. For fixed income, he recommended focusing on 3-5 year maturities to capture still-attractive carry yield and reduce risk from interest rate volatility, with an overweight to developed-market bonds. On gold, the firm maintained a positive medium- to long-term view, estimating a 12-month price target of 5,300 US dollars per ounce on demand for diversification and capital flowing back into gold ETFs. The Thai stock market from the start of 2026 through the close on October 1, 2026 saw the SET Index at 1,563.91 points, up about 24.15% from 1,259.67 points at the end of 2025. Domestic retail investors were the largest net buyers at 58,807.49 million baht, while domestic institutional investors were the largest net sellers at about 86,397.26 million baht. From late September through early October 2026, foreign investors sold Thai shares for eight consecutive trading sessions totaling more than 34,162 million baht. Data from the Thai Bond Market Association showed that in September 2026 foreign investors were net sellers of Thai bonds worth 22,003 million baht, bringing the cumulative year-to-date net foreign selling of Thai bonds to 9,426 million baht.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited assesses that Thailand's financial markets will remain volatile throughout the fourth quarter of 2026, pressured by interest rate hikes from major central banks worldwide. Suthichai Koomworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said there are seven signals to watch: crude oil prices, government bond yields, public debt burdens, the US election, natural disasters and the El Niño phenomenon, demand for AI technology, and the earnings of listed companies. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Head of Economic Research, estimates the impact of flooding on the economy, especially in Bangkok, at approximately 21,000 million baht, split into about 19,000 million baht in the third quarter of 2026 and another approximately 1,800 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, representing pressure on GDP of about -0.11%. However, there is a positive factor from the extension of the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2" program, which supports GDP by about +0.08%, leaving the net impact at only about -0.03%. GDP is expected to grow 2.0% both this year and next year. Meanwhile, Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, views this round of flooding as only a short-term event and expects that fund flows, which saw outflows of about 30,000 million baht over the past two weeks, will return to buy after the waters recede. He gives a suitable entry point of 1,500 to 1,550 points, maintains this year's SET target at 1,700 points, and sets next year's target at 1,715 points. Top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 include AMATA with a target price of 44 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 47 baht, CRC with a target price of 31 baht, KTB with a target price of 49 baht, and PR9 with a target price of 23 baht.

Mom Luang Pikthong Thongyai, Chief Executive Officer of PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has unveiled a strategy for its non-oil business, saying it is a key profit engine amid volatile oil prices. The company is pressing ahead with expanding Cafe Amazon coffee shops both inside and outside its service stations, focusing on new locations in hospitals and community areas such as temples, and is considering developing a mobile store format. It is also teaming up with partners on collaboration products such as soy sauce to attract younger customers. On progress in its partnership with Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, to develop budget hotels within service stations, the company has finalised six pilot locations: Bangkok, Kanchanaburi, Ayutthaya, Phuket, Chonburi and Songkhla. Five are branches inside service stations and one is outside a service station, in the Don Mueang area near the Red Line train station opposite Terminal 2. The hotels are five-storey buildings with about 79 rooms per branch, priced at roughly 800 to 100 baht per night. Construction takes about one year, with a gradual opening in 2027-2028. The project has double-digit returns on investment and profit margins. OR is also the first company to offer sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, at service stations for regional airports, blending Jet A1 fuel with biofuel made from used cooking oil at a ratio of about 1%, priced roughly five times higher than normal Jet A1.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

KGI Securities unveiled its top stock picks for October 2026, recommending accumulation of stocks in the private investment and data center themes, comprising DELTA, GULF, WHA, STECON and CENTEL. The research team believes the market in October is likely to rebound, as the market has already priced in much of the global economic risk, including uncertainty in the Middle East and surging bond yields in major markets worldwide. It expects the SET Index to recover, and sees a high chance the Fed will pause rate hikes temporarily after August core PCE came in below consensus. It also sees a fairly high possibility that the US and Iran will reach some form of ceasefire agreement soon. On domestic factors, the Thai government began rolling out the final phase of consumption stimulus measures today and will shift its focus to stimulating private investment, including PPP-model infrastructure projects and FDIs. As for STECON, it signed new project contracts worth 10 billion baht, equal to 20% of its 2026F target of 50 billion baht, lifting its backlog to 116.4 billion baht, and it expects to win another 70 billion baht in projects, mainly data centers and power plants. Meanwhile, GULF has identified data center demand of more than 2GW of capacity expected to secure Direct PPAs, and the PDP2026 plan is expected to add another 20-30GW of renewable energy capacity and another 20GW of gas-fired capacity. For CENTEL, the research team remains positive after updating information with management, noting that RevPAR booked in Q3/2026F recovered year-on-year by a mid-single-digit rate from -10% in Q2/2026, and is expected to improve further during the high season in Q4/2026F. The recommended portfolio for September fell 2.6%, underperforming the overall market, which declined 2.0%.

Kasikorn Securities revealed that Trip.com Group indicated Chinese tourists during Golden Week 2026 are tending to travel earlier and stay longer, with flight bookings to Phuket rising 78% year on year, while Chiang Mai is gaining popularity among Gen Z, in line with the recovery of travel in Asia. In addition, bookings for accommodation of seven nights or more rose 123% year on year, reflecting both an increase in the number of trips and in their duration. The research team views this as positive momentum for the tourism sector, namely AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL and ERW, given the recovery opportunity for Chinese tourists and tourism activity during Golden Week. However, the flood situation still needs to be monitored closely.

Kasikorn Securities stated that the impact of the flood situation on tourism businesses remains manageable, with tourism operations continuing as normal. According to flood reports, the situation has expanded to cover 25 provinces and Bangkok, resulting in 8 deaths across 3 provinces, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation as of September 26. About 84,600 people from 27,100 households in 21 provinces have been affected. During September 16–26, the floods affected a cumulative total of more than 102,000 people across 36 provinces. The three airlines under analysis did not cancel flights during September 25–27, though some ground operations were affected. All three airlines allowed passengers to change flights within one week at no additional cost, while THAI allowed changes to flights departing from Thailand through October 11. Hotel operators reported no property damage from the floods and no significant impact on revenue during September 25–27, with booking cancellations at about 2–15% of total bookings, mostly at upcountry hotels, partially offset by guests extending their stays, equivalent to about 20–30% of cancellations. The research team expects the floods to have a limited impact on third-quarter 2569 profits for the tourism sector, as the most severely affected period lasted only about 3 days. It therefore maintains a neutral view on the tourism sector and continues to favour hotel stocks, viewing the decline in hotel share prices due to the floods as an investment opportunity. It recommends BUY on AWC with a target price of 3.74 baht, BUY on CENTEL with a target price of 48.11 baht, and BUY on THAI with a target price of 6.78 baht.

Flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces is weighing on the Thai stock market in the short term. Piriyaphon Kongwanich, a strategist at BLS Wealth Research of Bualuang Securities, estimates preliminary damage of roughly 10 billion to 30 billion baht and expects only a limited impact on gross domestic product and listed-company earnings. He flagged stocks that may draw interest, including HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and ILM, with the research team upgrading GLOBAL and DOHOME to speculative buy while keeping buy ratings on HMPRO and ILM. Thaweethak Taweethiratham, an executive director at Asia Plus Securities, assesses the overall impact as still limited and short-lived, with building materials benefiting from demand to repair homes, while retail, hospitals and food also have support. Sectors to watch for indirect effects include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture and commercial banks, while tourism, property and hire-purchase lending have already begun to feel negative effects. InnovestX Securities sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, noting that in past cases of short flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET typically fell an average of about 0.6%, or 10 points, on the first day before turning positive within a week. It recommends a buy-on-dip strategy in domestic-play stocks through three themes: Recovery & Repair, comprising HMPRO, GLOBAL and DCC; Consumer Staples & Stockpiling, comprising CPALL, BJC and CRC; and Fast Recovery, comprising CENTEL, ERW, BDMS and BCH. The sector warranting added caution is insurance, given the risk that the loss ratio will rise from the damage incurred.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that although flooding in Bangkok has caused flight delays, major airports Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang remain open and operating normally, while inner Bangkok and key destinations such as Chiang Mai, Phuket, and Samui remain safe. If the situation eases quickly, the impact on travel during the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027, which is the tourism high season, will be limited. The Middle East situation remains the main factor shaping the direction of the tourism sector. For CENTEL, Thailand accounts for about 60% of hotel revenue, split between Bangkok at 22% and the provinces at 38%, which helps cushion the impact of the floods. Its restaurant business has about 34% of restaurant revenue in Bangkok, with average restaurant sales in Bangkok at roughly 12 million baht per day, and every single day that sales are hit by 30% to 50% would affect quarterly sales by only 0.1% to 0.2%. ERW says its Lux to Eco hotels, which account for 74% of revenue, remain open as normal, with about 54% of revenue in Bangkok, while Hop Inn, which accounts for 26% of revenue, has some branches affected but mostly in the provinces. MINT derives about 50% of revenue from hotels in the EU, so it faces a more limited fundamental impact. The research team maintains its view that normal profits for AOT and Thai hotel operators for the October to December period will expand both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing through the January to March 2027 period in line with the tourism season. Although the market may open risk-off in the short term, the effect on earnings forecasts remains limited. It still favours CENTEL, followed by AOT, while ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy after its share price fell 12% year to date versus the SET's gain of 28%. If jet fuel rises above its previous peak in April at 209 US dollars per barrel and affects flight capacity, that would be a tactical trigger to consider reducing weightings in the tourism sector.

Analysts view the buzz around 'Nene Royal', or Ms. Rattikan Amloy from Phuket province, who won season 21 of America's Got Talent, as helping build global recognition and drawing tourists to Phuket and lifting Thailand's overall tourism during this year-end travel season. Mr. Puwadon Pusodngern, an investment strategist in the research department at Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited, told 'Than Hoon' that Phuket's tourist arrival statistics were already growing well and ranked among the top in the country before the Nene Royal phenomenon, so it further strengthens this area. For hotel and tourism stocks with a customer base in Phuket, AWC is recommended with a fundamental target price of 4 baht, supported by advance bookings that lift profit through the first quarter of 2026 and a Phuket hotel portfolio that suits high-purchasing-power customers. CENTEL has a fundamental target price of 49 baht, benefiting from a low profit base that is ready to recover, and ERW has a fundamental target price of 4.50 baht, gaining less value benefit than AWC and CENTEL because it relies mainly on tourist numbers. The strategy recommends gradual accumulation. Meanwhile, CRC has a fundamental target price of 34 baht, supported directly by higher tourist spending, in line with an analysis by Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, which holds a positive view on Thailand's tourism group, citing a recovering short-haul market, an upcycle in average room rates, a recovery in MICE spending led by China, and undemanding share prices. It prefers AWC over ERW and MINT given stronger earnings-per-share growth prospects.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities have released a list of 9 standout stocks set to benefit from the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector, along with a strategy of timing purchases for trading gains. They see Thailand entering the full swing of the tourism high season in the fourth quarter of 2026, starting with China's Golden Week from October 1-7, 2026, followed by European travellers escaping the cold and the Christmas-New Year festival. Meanwhile, 2026 also has upside from hosting world-class events, namely the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12-18 in Bangkok, which are expected to draw 15,000-18,000 participants, and the Tomorrowland Thailand 2026 music festival from December 11-13 in Chonburi province, which is estimated to attract more than 15,000 attendees, over 85% of them foreign tourists. Based on historical statistics, the number of foreign tourists in the fourth quarter typically recovers significantly from the third quarter, with overall growth of 10% and 17% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to grow close to or better than the previous year, driven by a tourist mix of mass tourism and high-spending MICE groups, which will significantly boost per-capita spending. The positive momentum is expected to extend into the first half of 2027, thanks to the Chinese New Year festival in the first quarter of 2027 and the Songkran festival coupled with the Thai Tiew Thai Plus measure expected to begin in April 2027 in the second quarter of 2027. The investment strategy therefore recommends timing purchases for trading gains in two main groups: stocks that benefit directly from foreign tourists' travel and stays in Thailand, namely the tourism group AOT, ERW, CENTEL and MINT, and stocks that benefit indirectly through increased consumer goods spending, namely the commerce group CPALL, CRC and CPN, and the beverage group HTC and ICHI.

Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET Index to trade sideways today after the investment mood came under pressure once again from bond yields, along with rising oil prices. It estimates support at 1,600-1,605 points and resistance at 1,614-1,618 points, and sees energy stocks potentially attracting buying back. Meanwhile, US stocks closed lower after bond yields surged again, while oil prices rebounded strongly after Trump's speech at the UN, in which he gave Iran a choice between negotiating or letting the US wipe it out completely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded without backing down, but stressed that Iran is always ready for diplomatic talks if they are equal and do not use threatening language or force. As for the main strategy, Dao sees the market possibly pulling back but views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate Mega Play Theme stocks such as Data Center and power plants, and still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks also remain attractive, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium-to-long-term tourism recovery theme, it still likes AOT, CENTEL and ERW. The top pick today is PTTEP, supported by the short-term crude oil price outlook after Iran's president said at the UN that Iran will not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions remain in effect. Brent crude closed up 3.9% yesterday at 103.1 US dollars per barrel. Buy, target price 180.00 baht. Also AOT, which will benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects that during China's long holiday from 25 September to 7 October 2026, which covers both the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday, 250,000 Chinese tourists will come to Thailand, up 24% YoY. It also estimates normal profit in 4QFY26E will grow well both YoY and QoQ from the gradual recovery in international passengers and the first full quarter of recognition of the new PSC rate. Buy, target price 72.00 baht. The top picks on technical signals are PTTEP and CCET.

Bualuang Securities issued an IDEA Call on CENTEL, maintaining a Buy recommendation with a target price of 49 baht, viewing CENTEL as a stock that stands to benefit greatly from the recovery in 2027 after pressure from Dubai, the Maldives, Japan, and Thai hotels under renovation is likely to ease simultaneously. It assesses that 3Q26 will probably be the weakest quarter before momentum clearly improves from 4Q26 through 1Q27. The research team states that its 2027 profit estimate still has upside from the base case of 2.54 billion baht because it does not yet assume a full recovery. It expects Dubai to post a loss of about 100 million baht in 2026 before returning to breakeven in 2027, the Maldives to move from a loss of about 200 million baht toward breakeven, and Japan to stop being a drag after the ADR base from the Expo is revised down. Meanwhile, the Hua Hin and Krabi hotels return to full-year revenue recognition after renovations are completed, with the opportunity to raise ADR by at least 10% after repositioning, which together has the potential to restore about 350 million baht in profit. If the recovery is fuller than the base case, 2027 profit could rise to about 2.73 billion baht, or roughly 7.5% upside to profit, supporting a sensitivity-based target price near 52 baht. Recovery signals are becoming clearer, with August RevPAR for the portfolio up 3-4% year on year, led by Thailand up 12% year on year and the Maldives up 30% year on year, while Dubai declined to about -20% year on year from -61% year on year in 2Q26 and Japan declined to -30% year on year from -46% year on year in 2Q26, reflecting pressure concentrated in only some areas. In addition, the share of long-haul customers at Bangkok hotels rose from about 32% in 2019 to 46% in the first eight months of 2026, with revenue from Russian, Chinese, and Israeli customers in the first half of 2026 growing 24%, 39%, and 43% year on year respectively. Customers from the UK, Germany, and the United States remain below normal levels, so there is still upside if these markets recover further. As of June 2026, there were 52 operating hotels with 11,394 rooms and a pipeline of 40 hotels with 8,507 rooms, most of which are managed hotels, helping growth after 2027 avoid relying solely on the recovery of the existing hotel cycle.

Foreign tourists arriving in Thailand during 13–19 September 2026 totalled 464,200, beginning a seasonal recovery of 5.7% from the previous week ahead of the high season. Short-haul arrivals came to 324,816, up 8.6% week on week, while long-haul arrivals were 139,384, down 0.4% week on week. The recovery was led by Malaysian tourists at 69,255, up 29.1% on Malaysia Day, and Japanese tourists at 30,494, up 55.4% ahead of Silver Week, while Chinese tourists numbered 66,151, up 1.2%, and Russian tourists 19,531, up 7.6%. On forward bookings for Golden Week, Trip.com signalled positive momentum after Chinese tourists' flight bookings to Phuket rose 78% from a year earlier, supported by the long holiday combining the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week, which is likely to see Chinese tourists start travelling from 25 September. The research team at Asia Plus Securities views the Phuket flight bookings as a positive signal for AOT's international passenger numbers, particularly at Phuket airport, which accounts for about 12% of AOT's revenue. Among hotel groups with a high share of revenue from Phuket, CENTEL leads with about 15% of hotel revenue, followed by ERW at about 9% of hotel revenue, while MINT's main revenue share lies in the EU. The research team continues to emphasise investment in Thai tourism, favouring CENTEL followed by AOT, whose earnings momentum in 2027 looks stronger than the sector's. ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy tracking the direction of Brent crude, after the share price fell 14% this year against a 27% rise in the SET, which the team sees as having largely priced in the negatives. It estimates that AOT's normal profit, as well as that of Thai hotel groups, will expand in the October-to-December period both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing into the January-to-March 2027 period as the peak season arrives along with major events during Chinese New Year.

DBS Vickers Securities Thailand estimates that the SET index today has a chance to hold above the 1,600-point level, driven by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices may pressure energy stocks into selling. It sees support at 1,584-1,592 points and resistance at 1,604-1,610 points. It also noted that investors are still watching the Trump-Xi meeting. In the U.S. market, stocks rose sharply led by AI names such as Meta, and WTI crude fell below 100 U.S. dollars, pushing bond yields to close below 5%, which is expected to support buying in beneficiary groups such as data centers and power plants. It continues to favor GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banks remain resilient given lingering uncertainty, so it still favors KTB, KBANK and KKP. Over the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks such as AOT, CENTEL and ERW. For today's top pick, it recommends CPALL, estimating 2026E profit at 33 billion baht, up 18% year on year, supported by 700 new branch openings and product mix, with a target price of 63.00 baht. Its technical picks are BGRIM and STECON.

Dao Securities expects the Thai stock market on September 22, 2026, to see the SET Index attempt to hold above 1,600 points, helped by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices could pressure energy shares with selling. The investment mood has improved again, and investors are watching the meeting between Trump and Xi. In the US market, stocks rose sharply, especially AI-related names led by META, and with WTI oil falling below 100 dollars per barrel, the US bond yield closed below 5%, supporting the investment climate. Fitch Ratings announced on September 18 that it had revised Thailand's credit outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, a supportive factor for the market. The SET opened the morning up more than 9 to 13 points, testing 1,600 points, with buying concentrated mainly in banking and financial stocks. Dao Securities' main strategy states that a US bond yield closing below 5% will draw buying into stocks that benefit from lower bond yields under the Mega Play theme, such as data centers and power plants, and it still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks should be resilient amid lingering uncertainty, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks, namely AOT, CENTEL and ERW.

September earnings estimates for the SET were revised up a further 0.7% month on month and 15.6% since the start of the year, driven mainly by sectors benefiting from higher energy and commodity prices. Petrochemicals led the way with a 6.2% month-on-month increase, as PTTGC rose 13% and IVL gained 7%. The energy sector rose 1.8%, led by refiners BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, which lifted the estimate for sector heavyweight PTT by a further 2%. The agricultural sector rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA's earnings estimate revised up 26%. However, the upward revisions are no longer as broad-based as before: fuel station operators PTG fell 26% and OR dropped 4%, while power plant groups SPP, BGRIM and GPSC slipped 2% and 1% respectively. In real estate, LH fell 1% and ORI dropped 13%, reflecting a growing divergence in earnings estimate trends between sectors and individual companies. Stocks still seeing upward revisions included AWC up 8%, CENTEL up 5%, BJC up 4%, CRC up 3%, AMATA up 8% and GUNKUL up 2%.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

Asia Plus Securities said Fitch Ratings raised Thailand's credit outlook to Stable from Negative while affirming the rating at BBB+. One of the reasons cited was the stability of the government. As a result, the country's outlook from all three credit rating agencies is now at Stable, which not only reflects confidence in Thailand but also reduces the risk of a downgrade in the next period. For commercial banks whose outlooks Fitch downgraded last year in line with its view on Thailand, namely KTB and TTB, there is a chance their outlooks will be raised to Stable in line with Thailand in the next step, making their share prices likely to receive more positive sentiment than the sector. Political stability is reflected in the passage of two financial laws: the emergency decree authorizing 400 billion baht in borrowing, which passed by a vote of 285 to 141, and the 2027 budget bill, which passed by a vote of 338 to 144. These help ensure money continues to flow into the economy and reduce policy uncertainty. The research team is maintaining a Barbell strategy, choosing KTB followed by KBANK on the commercial banking side, while BBL is a catch-up play on valuation at a PBV of 0.6 times versus 1.2 times for the sector. On the other side is the tourism group, focusing on CENTEL, AOT, and ERW, with upside expected if the war eases.

Pi Securities estimates the SET index today will move in a range of 1570 to 1595, viewing Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation again on expectations of lower yields ahead. It names stocks in this group including MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR. Meanwhile, US stock markets closed higher, with the DJIA up 0.61% and the S&P 500 up 1.14%, after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled it may hike once more this year. Brent crude fell to around 104 to 105 dollars per barrel after Middle East concerns eased somewhat and Saudi Arabia said it would resume oil exports, helping push the US 10-year yield and 30-year yield lower. On US economic data released overnight, initial jobless claims came in at about 196,000, below market expectations. For short-term strategy, it recommends TECH names including DELTA and KCE after the Kospi rose about 2.5% this morning, as well as the tourism group including AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN and HMPRO, and the hospital group including BDMS, BCH and PR9.