The Erawan Group Public Company Limited

DBS Vickers assesses that the Ministry of Finance's revival of the exit fee on departures from the kingdom, at 1,000 baht per trip collected through airline tickets and applied to both Thai and foreign travellers, is a negative sentiment for the tourism and airline sectors. Although this issue surfaced in late April 2026, at that time it applied only to Thais and could not be implemented. This time it is more likely to proceed because a public consultation has already opened. The research team cites 2025 figures showing about 15 million Thais travelled abroad and roughly 28 million foreign tourists excluding Malaysians. It expects that if the fee is actually collected, it could be worth as much as 43 billion baht per year. At 1,000 baht per person per trip, that represents only 2.1% of tourist spending per trip of 48,000 baht per person based on 2025 data, and in 2027 airfares are expected to fall in line with oil prices, which would help soften the impact. The research team favours an overweight stance on the tourism sector, selecting CENTEL with a target of 48.00 baht and ERW with a target of 4.20 baht as top picks. For the aviation sector it also sees negative sentiment, ranking the affected stocks from most to least affected as AAV, AOT, BA and THAI. THAI and BA are moderately affected because they are full-service airlines whose fares are already high, while AAV, a low-cost carrier flying short-haul routes, will be hit harder, with average round-trip fares to Malaysia and Vietnam of 4,000 to 7,000 baht set to rise by 15% to 25%. However, Thai AirAsia derives 55% of its revenue domestically, which may offset some of the impact if Thais turn to travelling within the country more. As for AOT, with a target of 73.00 baht, the research team expects a secondary impact through PSC revenue from international outbound passengers and duty-free revenue if fewer Thais travel abroad, though foreign passengers are not expected to be much affected.

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports is pressing ahead with its plan to collect a fee from foreign tourists, known as the Thailand Tourism Fee, at a rate of 450 baht per person, applying only to foreign tourists entering Thailand by air. Results of an online public consultation that ended on 28 September 2026 found that 80.5% of respondents supported the draft announcement, while collection for arrivals by land and by sea will be delayed for one year. Revenue from the fee will be paid into the fund for the promotion of Thai tourism, with part used to provide insurance coverage for tourists who pay the fee and another part used to restore and develop tourist attractions. After deducting collection costs and insurance premiums, at least 8 billion baht is expected to remain for developing tourist sites and supporting Thai tourism. Dao Securities Thailand Public Company Limited assesses the matter as neutral. Previously, on 14 February 2023, the Cabinet approved a collection guideline of 300 baht per visit for tourists arriving by air and 150 baht per visit for arrivals by land and by sea, but the plan could not be implemented. This time the research team sees it as more feasible, as the 450 baht per person rate represents only 0.9% of tourist spending per trip, based on 2025 data showing average spending of 48,000 baht per person. On investment strategy, the team gives an overweight rating to the tourism sector, recommending a Buy on Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, with a target price of 48.00 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 RevPAR to grow 5% from the same period a year earlier, excluding Dubai, and fourth-quarter 2026 forward bookings to show RevPAR growth of 13%. It also recommends a Buy on The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, with a target price of 4.20 baht, while Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited likewise maintains a Buy with a target price of 4.20 baht. ERW is expected to open nine more Hop Inn hotels in 2026, bringing the total to 94 hotels and supporting profit growth of 8.0% in 2026 and 15% in 2027.

The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, has signalled that its third-quarter 2026 operating results will come in better than expected, driven by a strong recovery in the Middle East tourist market after the war situation eased and by continued signs of recovery in the Chinese tourist market. Miss Tawanna Termwattanakorn, investor relations officer at ERW, said these factors helped room rates at hotels ranging from Economy to Luxury, especially hotels in the Bangkok CBD area, improve beyond the company's expectations. Meanwhile, the budget hotel business under the HOP INN brand is still performing in line with expectations; although the third quarter is a low season, it received support from corporate customers and domestic business travel. For the fourth-quarter 2026 outlook, the company sees forward bookings at a good level, with long-haul markets beginning to show bookings for stays from late November through December, together with the high season and major conferences and events such as the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as the Tomorrowland music festival in the Pattaya area. The company expects average occupancy in the second half of 2026, including the fourth quarter, to be around 80 percent, and is maintaining its target of roughly 6 percent revenue growth in 2026 from the previous year under the original plan. It will continue to open new HOP INN hotels in Thailand as planned, while its overseas expansion has projects that are already clear and it continues to study additional opportunities.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, has maintained its SET index target for the end of 2026 at 1,680-1,750 points, assessing that the Thai stock market in the fourth quarter of 2026 is likely to recover strongly, driven by the start of a new investment cycle powered by AI technology, production base relocation, and energy security. As a result, credit growth in Asia has accelerated to 8.5% year-on-year, the highest level in 18 years. Meanwhile, Krungsri research has raised its forecast for Thailand's 2026 GDP to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment expected to expand 8.6% and exports expanding 14.0% year-on-year. Earnings of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 hit a record high, growing 12% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion, the longest streak since the third quarter of 2011. Krungsri Securities therefore recommends an overweight position in three main themes: stocks benefiting from the Asia-Thailand CAPEX Cycle, stocks with potential for NTM re-ratings, and stocks benefiting from a super El Niño. Its top picks for the fourth quarter are TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA, and KBANK, and it also recommends keeping an eye on mid-small cap stocks such as THAI HANA and ERW.

Trinity Securities assesses global and Thai stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 will face volatility from a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on the market and micro factors still providing support. Natchat Mekmasin, senior assistant managing director of the securities analysis department at Trinity Securities, said Trinity estimates the SET Index will move within a range of 1,500-1,700 points for the remainder of the year, using a PE Model that sets three forward P/E scenarios at 15.9 times, 14.8 times and 13.8 times, combined with a forecast 2026 EPS from the Bloomberg Consensus of about 110 baht, yielding appropriate index levels of 1,750 points in the best case, 1,630 points in the base case and 1,510 points in the worst case, compared with the current SET level of around 1,580 points. On investment strategy, Trinity recommends a bottom fishing or buy-the-dip approach rather than chasing stocks during market rallies, waiting for the market to see a panic sell driven by macro factors and then gradually accumulating fundamentally strong stocks, while emphasizing sector rotation and stock selection. Its top picks span five themes: the livestock group with BTG and TFG, the tourism group with AWC and ERW, the retail group with CRC and COM7, the processed agricultural products group with STA and TVO, and the group benefiting from FDI, namely AMATA and STECON, for a total of 10 top picks.

Trinity Securities has released its first calculation for the 1H27 review cycle, forecasting which stocks will be added to and removed from the SET50 and SET100 indices, based on data through September 30, and will wait for actual data through the end of November. The stocks expected to be added to the SET50 index are KCE, SPRC, IRPC and CENTEL, all four with 99.99% confidence. The stocks expected to be removed from the SET50 are LH, OSP, TIDLOR and MRDIYT, also with 99.99% confidence. The stocks expected to be added to the SET100 index are MBK, TTW and PSL, while STPI could slip in as the fourth if HANA unexpectedly drops out of the index. The stocks expected to be removed from the SET100 are AURA, QH and MOSHI, and HANA must avoid being placed on the Trading alert list throughout October and November. Strategically, Trinity recommends gradually buying for speculation the stocks certain to be added to the SET50 index, namely KCE, SPRC, IRPC and CENTEL, with KCE the most attractive because it has the largest market cap, and recommends avoiding stocks that may be removed from the SET50, namely LH, OSP, TIDLOR and MRDIYT, over the next one to two months. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities noted that the Prime Minister has ordered all agencies to accelerate preparations to host the 2026 World Bank-IMF meeting, which is expected to draw more than 10,000 participants from at least 19 countries, focusing on upgrading airports, airlines, visas, immigration, security and public health, and using this stage to attract investment and build confidence in the Thai economy. This is seen as positive sentiment for stocks related to travel, tourism, airports, hotels and convention centres, such as AOT, AWC, CENTEL and ERW.

Dao Securities rates the tourism sector "overweight" after tourist arrivals in the week of September 27 to October 3 rebounded 8% WoW, better than expected thanks to the Golden Week period, with the increase driven mainly by travellers from China, India and Russia. Excluding Malaysian tourists, arrivals still rose 10% WoW and 6% YoY, while Chinese tourists rose 2% YoY, slowing from 19% YoY the previous week. The research team believes arrivals bottomed out in the second quarter of 2026 and will recover strongly in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the high season and several events in December 2026. It expects total arrivals in 2026 at 32 million, down 3% YoY from 33 million in 2025, which itself fell 7% YoY, and forecasts Chinese tourists in 2026 at 4.8 million, up 7% YoY from 4.5 million in 2025, which fell 34% YoY. The stocks that benefit, ranked by their share of domestic hotels from highest to lowest, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. CENTEL is the top pick with a target price of 48.00 baht, as third-quarter 2026 RevPAR excluding Dubai rose 5% YoY and fourth-quarter 2026 on-the-book bookings rose 13% YoY. ERW, with a target price of 4.20 baht, benefits from the World Bank and IMF meetings in October 2026 and Tomorrowland in December 2026, with bookings continuing to push the occupancy rate as high as 80% already.

Asia Plus Securities said in a research note that Thailand's tourism sector still looks set for solid growth. During China's Golden Week from September 27 to October 3, 2026, Thailand received 522,532 foreign arrivals, up 8% from the previous week, driven by 133,946 Chinese tourists, a rise of 42% from the prior week. Although foreign arrivals in the third quarter of 2026 fell 5% year on year, they rose 3.5% from the previous quarter, and excluding the Malaysian market the decline was only 0.9%. Key markets continued to expand, with China up 12%, Europe up 1.5%, the Middle East up 13% and the Americas up 1.5%. The standout point is that hotel revenue is still growing faster than visitor numbers. Forward booking data indicates that revenue per room for CENTEL and MINT is likely to rise about 10-13% from a year earlier, while ERW targets revenue growth of 7% from a year earlier. International passenger volume at AOT in July to September 2026 fell 1.9% year on year, in line with the foreign tourist trend when the Malaysian market is excluded. As for the next catalyst, the market is watching the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank from October 12 to 18, 2026. Large international events of this kind are likely to benefit hotel operators such as ERW, AWC and CENTEL more directly than airport or airline businesses. On investment strategy, the brokerage remains positive on Thailand's tourism group, picking CENTEL as its top stock on the back of strong hotel business profit trends, while AOT and ERW remain attractive as stocks that stand to gain from international events and the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector.

TTB Wealth stated that the widening gap between Thai and US bond yields has pressured the baht to weaken, recently standing at 33.68 THB/USD, causing foreign fund flows to continue flowing out. However, the weaker baht benefits several groups. The electronics export group gains from both the weak baht and strong order volumes; preferred stocks are DELTA, KCE, and HANA. The food export group stands out for high dividends and still-laggard prices; preferred stocks are TU and ITC. The tourism group benefits from entering the high season for tourism; preferred stocks are AOT, ERW, CENTEL, and MINT, making a total of 9 beneficiary stocks.

Kasikorn Securities stated that the Prime Minister has ordered all agencies to accelerate preparations for Thailand to host the World Bank-IMF meetings in 2026, which are expected to draw more than 10,000 participants from at least 19 countries. The focus is on upgrading airports, airlines, visas, immigration, security, and public health to accommodate leaders and senior executives, while using the forum as an opportunity to attract investment, expand trade, and build confidence in Thailand's economy over the long term. The brokerage views this as a positive sentiment for stocks related to travel, tourism, airports, hotels, and convention centers, such as AOT, AWC, CENTEL, and ERW, given the potential benefit from increased traffic and spending by attendees.

Natwarin Triphopsakul, Senior Director of the Equity Strategy Team at InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, assesses that the Thai stock market will remain volatile in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, amid an investment climate pressured by factors on all sides. These include the Fed's hawkish stance, which is keeping bond yields elevated at multi-year highs, causing fund flows to continue flowing out. This is compounded by energy prices that remain high due to prolonged geopolitical problems, and concerns over domestic flooding, which, although the impact on the economy is expected to be limited, remains an overhang factor creating negative sentiment toward the market. InnovestX therefore recommends a Selective Buy strategy, focusing on Buy on Dip through 3 trading themes with their own specific positive factors. These are: the Domestic Play theme, based on domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN, and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; the Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays theme, which benefits from stockpiling of essential goods during emergencies, comprising the commerce group CPALL, BJC, and CRC, extending to demand for home repairs after the waters recede, namely HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and the Tourism & Mega-Event Play theme, which is expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by factors ranging from China's Golden Week from October 1 to 7 and world-class events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, comprising the tourism group ERW, CENTEL, and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN, and CRC. On external factors, the United States reported August PCE and Core PCE at 3.4% and 3.0% year on year, respectively, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations, while real consumption expanded 0.6% from the previous month and ADP employment for September rose by 90,000 positions from 36,000 positions, reflecting that the economy remains strong but price pressures have not yet broadened, opening the door for the Fed to wait and assess more data. The market has reduced the odds of an October rate hike to about 35% from 70% last Monday. InnovestX still expects the Fed to raise rates in December and once more in early next year, but September NFP, CPI, and PPI must be monitored to assess the risk that the Fed may accelerate the pace of rate hikes. In China, the PBOC cut the PSL rate used to lend to state policy banks by 25 basis points to 1.50%, while increasing funding support for targeted economic sectors, and the government is subsidizing interest on first-home loans by 1% per year for no more than 5 years. However, the measures still focus on supporting the economy, while falling home prices continue to pressure purchasing power. InnovestX therefore maintains its forecast for China's 2026 GDP at 4.6% and views that the property sector may take at least another year to reach its bottom. Next week, attention will be on Thailand's September inflation, which InnovestX expects to accelerate from 2.53% year on year in the previous month, tracking higher oil and fresh food prices, as well as the final September services PMI for the United States, the eurozone, and Japan. Preliminary PMI readings reflect that the United States and the eurozone are accelerating, while Japan is slowing but still expanding. Also awaited is the report of the September FOMC meeting after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, with a focus on details of discussions about inflation risks, the strength of the economy, and the conditions that would lead to the next rate hike.

Chayut Krailatrattanasiri, Assistant Director of the Research Department at Land and Houses Securities, told the Vision team that the overall outlook for tourism stocks in the fourth quarter of 2026 is clearly quite positive. Although early in the quarter there was pressure from flooding, this is assessed as only a short-term impact. The main supporting factors come from China's Golden Week, a long holiday early in the fourth quarter that has helped drive Chinese tourist arrivals into Thailand higher, with a clear acceleration, as well as Thailand hosting the IMF and World Bank meetings in mid-October, a positive factor in terms of policy and economic activity that directly supports tourism stocks. The research team views hotels as the biggest beneficiaries of the recovery in tourist numbers, expecting fourth-quarter operating results and profits to grow outstandingly. Airlines also benefit, but their upside is limited by still-high oil costs. The three standout hotel stocks named as Top Picks are AWC, with a target price of 20 baht, which the research team is in the process of reviewing upward on structural positives from the establishment of AWR that will help unlock asset value and increase liquidity; ERW, with a target price of 80 baht, which is assessed as still offering upside for investment; and CENTEL, with a consensus target price of 50 baht.

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

Trinity Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will fluctuate within a range of 1,500-1,700 points, noting that the current index level has fallen into a zone where reward clearly outweighs risk. For those who still hold Thai stocks at low levels, or who need to invest to reduce taxes this year, the current index area is seen as an opportunity to gradually accumulate (Buy the Dip). As for the investment strategy for the fourth quarter, the research department recommends a defensive approach focused on its quarterly recommended stocks, namely BTG, TFG, AWC, ERW, CRC, COM7, STA, TVO, AMATA and STECON.

Kasikorn Securities revealed that Trip.com Group indicated Chinese tourists during Golden Week 2026 are tending to travel earlier and stay longer, with flight bookings to Phuket rising 78% year on year, while Chiang Mai is gaining popularity among Gen Z, in line with the recovery of travel in Asia. In addition, bookings for accommodation of seven nights or more rose 123% year on year, reflecting both an increase in the number of trips and in their duration. The research team views this as positive momentum for the tourism sector, namely AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL and ERW, given the recovery opportunity for Chinese tourists and tourism activity during Golden Week. However, the flood situation still needs to be monitored closely.

Flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces is weighing on the Thai stock market in the short term. Piriyaphon Kongwanich, a strategist at BLS Wealth Research of Bualuang Securities, estimates preliminary damage of roughly 10 billion to 30 billion baht and expects only a limited impact on gross domestic product and listed-company earnings. He flagged stocks that may draw interest, including HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and ILM, with the research team upgrading GLOBAL and DOHOME to speculative buy while keeping buy ratings on HMPRO and ILM. Thaweethak Taweethiratham, an executive director at Asia Plus Securities, assesses the overall impact as still limited and short-lived, with building materials benefiting from demand to repair homes, while retail, hospitals and food also have support. Sectors to watch for indirect effects include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture and commercial banks, while tourism, property and hire-purchase lending have already begun to feel negative effects. InnovestX Securities sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, noting that in past cases of short flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET typically fell an average of about 0.6%, or 10 points, on the first day before turning positive within a week. It recommends a buy-on-dip strategy in domestic-play stocks through three themes: Recovery & Repair, comprising HMPRO, GLOBAL and DCC; Consumer Staples & Stockpiling, comprising CPALL, BJC and CRC; and Fast Recovery, comprising CENTEL, ERW, BDMS and BCH. The sector warranting added caution is insurance, given the risk that the loss ratio will rise from the damage incurred.

The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, assesses that the flood situation will have only a limited short-term impact on its hotel business, as the event is brief and confined to certain areas, and is neither severe nor prolonged as in the past. Meanwhile, HOPINN hotels are benefiting from short-term accommodation demand from those affected by the floods. As for the fourth-quarter 2026 outlook, on-the-book reservations during festivals and major events remain at a good level, from China's Golden Week festival on 1–4 October, the IMF-World Bank meetings, the fireworks extravaganza along the Chao Phraya River during the Loy Krathong festival in November, the Pattaya International Fireworks Festival on 27–28 November 2026, and continuing through Tomorrowland and the New Year countdown in December. At present there have been no significant room booking cancellations, and fourth-quarter 2026 operating results are expected to improve from the third quarter of 2026 and be close to the fourth quarter of last year. Meanwhile, Pi Securities Public Company Limited expects third-quarter 2026 room bookings to grow 2% year on year, with Luxury-to-Economy hotels growing about 5% year on year and HOPINN growing 1% year on year. It therefore maintains its 2026 revenue forecast at 8.4 billion baht, up 6% year on year, with net profit of 952 million baht, up 14% year on year, and keeps its buy recommendation with a fair value of 4.20 baht.

Analysts at Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have unveiled their Thai equity investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting Thailand's investment upcycle, driven by data centre investment and the PDP26 plan, to support growth momentum from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2027. They expect power generation capacity serving data centres to rise to 5–7GW by 2030, and have raised their SET index target to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 target based on a 2027 SET EPS of 105 points and a long-term average PE of 16 times. For the fourth quarter of 2026, they highlight two themes: stocks benefiting from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, and stocks with earnings recovery coupled with cost pass-through ability and room for prices to catch up, namely SCGP and CPALL. Meanwhile, analysts at InnovestX Securities have raised their 2026 SET target from 1,600 points to 1,700 points to reflect a stronger-than-expected second quarter of 2026, robust investment and economic stimulus measures, viewing 1,550 points as an attractive level for gradual accumulation, and selecting AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9 as their top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities see global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 entering a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors still supporting the market. They estimate the SET index trading range at 1,500–1,700 points, with a base case of around 1,630 points calculated from a forward PE of 14.8 times multiplied by this year's EPS of 110 baht, and recommend a sector rotation and stock selection strategy across five favoured groups: livestock, BTG and TFG; tourism, AWC and ERW; retail with company-specific catalysts, CRC and COM7; agricultural products, STA and TVO; and beneficiaries of private-sector investment, AMATA and STECON.

Analysts view the buzz around 'Nene Royal', or Ms. Rattikan Amloy from Phuket province, who won season 21 of America's Got Talent, as helping build global recognition and drawing tourists to Phuket and lifting Thailand's overall tourism during this year-end travel season. Mr. Puwadon Pusodngern, an investment strategist in the research department at Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited, told 'Than Hoon' that Phuket's tourist arrival statistics were already growing well and ranked among the top in the country before the Nene Royal phenomenon, so it further strengthens this area. For hotel and tourism stocks with a customer base in Phuket, AWC is recommended with a fundamental target price of 4 baht, supported by advance bookings that lift profit through the first quarter of 2026 and a Phuket hotel portfolio that suits high-purchasing-power customers. CENTEL has a fundamental target price of 49 baht, benefiting from a low profit base that is ready to recover, and ERW has a fundamental target price of 4.50 baht, gaining less value benefit than AWC and CENTEL because it relies mainly on tourist numbers. The strategy recommends gradual accumulation. Meanwhile, CRC has a fundamental target price of 34 baht, supported directly by higher tourist spending, in line with an analysis by Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, which holds a positive view on Thailand's tourism group, citing a recovering short-haul market, an upcycle in average room rates, a recovery in MICE spending led by China, and undemanding share prices. It prefers AWC over ERW and MINT given stronger earnings-per-share growth prospects.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities have released a list of 9 standout stocks set to benefit from the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector, along with a strategy of timing purchases for trading gains. They see Thailand entering the full swing of the tourism high season in the fourth quarter of 2026, starting with China's Golden Week from October 1-7, 2026, followed by European travellers escaping the cold and the Christmas-New Year festival. Meanwhile, 2026 also has upside from hosting world-class events, namely the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12-18 in Bangkok, which are expected to draw 15,000-18,000 participants, and the Tomorrowland Thailand 2026 music festival from December 11-13 in Chonburi province, which is estimated to attract more than 15,000 attendees, over 85% of them foreign tourists. Based on historical statistics, the number of foreign tourists in the fourth quarter typically recovers significantly from the third quarter, with overall growth of 10% and 17% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to grow close to or better than the previous year, driven by a tourist mix of mass tourism and high-spending MICE groups, which will significantly boost per-capita spending. The positive momentum is expected to extend into the first half of 2027, thanks to the Chinese New Year festival in the first quarter of 2027 and the Songkran festival coupled with the Thai Tiew Thai Plus measure expected to begin in April 2027 in the second quarter of 2027. The investment strategy therefore recommends timing purchases for trading gains in two main groups: stocks that benefit directly from foreign tourists' travel and stays in Thailand, namely the tourism group AOT, ERW, CENTEL and MINT, and stocks that benefit indirectly through increased consumer goods spending, namely the commerce group CPALL, CRC and CPN, and the beverage group HTC and ICHI.

Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET Index to trade sideways today after the investment mood came under pressure once again from bond yields, along with rising oil prices. It estimates support at 1,600-1,605 points and resistance at 1,614-1,618 points, and sees energy stocks potentially attracting buying back. Meanwhile, US stocks closed lower after bond yields surged again, while oil prices rebounded strongly after Trump's speech at the UN, in which he gave Iran a choice between negotiating or letting the US wipe it out completely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded without backing down, but stressed that Iran is always ready for diplomatic talks if they are equal and do not use threatening language or force. As for the main strategy, Dao sees the market possibly pulling back but views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate Mega Play Theme stocks such as Data Center and power plants, and still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks also remain attractive, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium-to-long-term tourism recovery theme, it still likes AOT, CENTEL and ERW. The top pick today is PTTEP, supported by the short-term crude oil price outlook after Iran's president said at the UN that Iran will not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions remain in effect. Brent crude closed up 3.9% yesterday at 103.1 US dollars per barrel. Buy, target price 180.00 baht. Also AOT, which will benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects that during China's long holiday from 25 September to 7 October 2026, which covers both the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday, 250,000 Chinese tourists will come to Thailand, up 24% YoY. It also estimates normal profit in 4QFY26E will grow well both YoY and QoQ from the gradual recovery in international passengers and the first full quarter of recognition of the new PSC rate. Buy, target price 72.00 baht. The top picks on technical signals are PTTEP and CCET.

Foreign tourists arriving in Thailand during 13–19 September 2026 totalled 464,200, beginning a seasonal recovery of 5.7% from the previous week ahead of the high season. Short-haul arrivals came to 324,816, up 8.6% week on week, while long-haul arrivals were 139,384, down 0.4% week on week. The recovery was led by Malaysian tourists at 69,255, up 29.1% on Malaysia Day, and Japanese tourists at 30,494, up 55.4% ahead of Silver Week, while Chinese tourists numbered 66,151, up 1.2%, and Russian tourists 19,531, up 7.6%. On forward bookings for Golden Week, Trip.com signalled positive momentum after Chinese tourists' flight bookings to Phuket rose 78% from a year earlier, supported by the long holiday combining the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week, which is likely to see Chinese tourists start travelling from 25 September. The research team at Asia Plus Securities views the Phuket flight bookings as a positive signal for AOT's international passenger numbers, particularly at Phuket airport, which accounts for about 12% of AOT's revenue. Among hotel groups with a high share of revenue from Phuket, CENTEL leads with about 15% of hotel revenue, followed by ERW at about 9% of hotel revenue, while MINT's main revenue share lies in the EU. The research team continues to emphasise investment in Thai tourism, favouring CENTEL followed by AOT, whose earnings momentum in 2027 looks stronger than the sector's. ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy tracking the direction of Brent crude, after the share price fell 14% this year against a 27% rise in the SET, which the team sees as having largely priced in the negatives. It estimates that AOT's normal profit, as well as that of Thai hotel groups, will expand in the October-to-December period both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing into the January-to-March 2027 period as the peak season arrives along with major events during Chinese New Year.

DBS Vickers Securities Thailand estimates that the SET index today has a chance to hold above the 1,600-point level, driven by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices may pressure energy stocks into selling. It sees support at 1,584-1,592 points and resistance at 1,604-1,610 points. It also noted that investors are still watching the Trump-Xi meeting. In the U.S. market, stocks rose sharply led by AI names such as Meta, and WTI crude fell below 100 U.S. dollars, pushing bond yields to close below 5%, which is expected to support buying in beneficiary groups such as data centers and power plants. It continues to favor GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banks remain resilient given lingering uncertainty, so it still favors KTB, KBANK and KKP. Over the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks such as AOT, CENTEL and ERW. For today's top pick, it recommends CPALL, estimating 2026E profit at 33 billion baht, up 18% year on year, supported by 700 new branch openings and product mix, with a target price of 63.00 baht. Its technical picks are BGRIM and STECON.

Dao Securities expects the Thai stock market on September 22, 2026, to see the SET Index attempt to hold above 1,600 points, helped by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices could pressure energy shares with selling. The investment mood has improved again, and investors are watching the meeting between Trump and Xi. In the US market, stocks rose sharply, especially AI-related names led by META, and with WTI oil falling below 100 dollars per barrel, the US bond yield closed below 5%, supporting the investment climate. Fitch Ratings announced on September 18 that it had revised Thailand's credit outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, a supportive factor for the market. The SET opened the morning up more than 9 to 13 points, testing 1,600 points, with buying concentrated mainly in banking and financial stocks. Dao Securities' main strategy states that a US bond yield closing below 5% will draw buying into stocks that benefit from lower bond yields under the Mega Play theme, such as data centers and power plants, and it still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks should be resilient amid lingering uncertainty, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks, namely AOT, CENTEL and ERW.

Asia Plus Securities said Fitch Ratings raised Thailand's credit outlook to Stable from Negative while affirming the rating at BBB+. One of the reasons cited was the stability of the government. As a result, the country's outlook from all three credit rating agencies is now at Stable, which not only reflects confidence in Thailand but also reduces the risk of a downgrade in the next period. For commercial banks whose outlooks Fitch downgraded last year in line with its view on Thailand, namely KTB and TTB, there is a chance their outlooks will be raised to Stable in line with Thailand in the next step, making their share prices likely to receive more positive sentiment than the sector. Political stability is reflected in the passage of two financial laws: the emergency decree authorizing 400 billion baht in borrowing, which passed by a vote of 285 to 141, and the 2027 budget bill, which passed by a vote of 338 to 144. These help ensure money continues to flow into the economy and reduce policy uncertainty. The research team is maintaining a Barbell strategy, choosing KTB followed by KBANK on the commercial banking side, while BBL is a catch-up play on valuation at a PBV of 0.6 times versus 1.2 times for the sector. On the other side is the tourism group, focusing on CENTEL, AOT, and ERW, with upside expected if the war eases.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that the postponement of the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus project from its original start date of October 1, 2026 to around April 2027 is a short-term negative sentiment for hotel stocks, as the positive catalyst has been pushed out. However, the delay does not affect 2026 earnings forecasts because the benefits from the project had not yet been included in the estimates. Meanwhile, the recovery of revenue per available room, or RevPar, and forward room bookings, or On-the-Book, in the second half of 2026 is trending stronger than expected. AWC reported RevPar for July to August 2026 growing more than 25% compared with the same period last year, and On-the-Book for the remainder of 2026 grew more than 30%, higher than the previous assumption that RevPar in the second half of 2026 would grow about 5-10%. On September 16, 2026, Minister of Tourism and Sports Surasak Phanchareonworakul revealed that the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus project is likely to be postponed to start during the off-peak tourism season, or around April 2027, because the Cabinet meeting agreed that budget injections should not be made during the tourism season. In principle, the conditions, details, and budget framework of the project have already received preliminary approval, and the delay to a low-season start could also create upside for hotel sector earnings forecasts in 2027. The brokerage maintains a positive view on hotel stocks, selecting AWC and ERW as its top picks in the sector, since both companies derive more than 90% of their core revenue from domestic hotel operations. It recommends buying AWC with a target price of 3.90 baht and buying ERW with a target price of 4.20 baht. The key risk to monitor is the renewed intensification of war in the Middle East, which could affect confidence and the travel of foreign tourists.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

The research department of Asia Plus Securities said that fiscal 2027 budget disbursement, which will circulate through the economy and stimulate domestic GDP, will benefit four industries worth watching. The retail group, or COMM, gains from government measures that support purchasing power and grassroots-level consumption, with standout stocks CPALL, CPAXT and BJC. The tourism and services group, or TOURISM, receives support from tourism promotion budgets and airport infrastructure, with standout stocks AOT, CENTEL and THAI. The banking group, or BANK, grows in line with an overall GDP recovery driven by the budget injection, with standout stocks BBL, KBANK and KTB. The construction and construction materials group will unlock the investment cycle and disbursement of state mega-projects, with standout stocks SCC, SCCC, TPIPL, CK and STECON. In a highly volatile market, the research department selected standout stocks with their own specific positive factors. CK gains fully from the positive momentum of the fiscal 2027 Budget Act passing parliament, with expectations that state mega-projects will move forward. ERW is a tourism stock benefiting from the weaker baht, government stimulus programs such as Thai Tiew Thai Plus, and the Golden Week festival. BDMS is a medical stock whose current price has been slow to rise, or a laggard, but its third-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to recover strongly on both Thai and foreign patients.

InnovestX Securities expects the SET Index to trade sideways in the short term, with the market pricing in a 94.5% probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25% at its meeting on September 15–16. This has pushed the 10-year US bond yield up to 5.041%, the highest in 19 years, pressuring risk assets into volatility. The brokerage is also watching the Bank of Japan meeting on September 18 for signals on policy rates and the impact on the yen carry trade, which will directly affect global fund flows. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose 2.9% day-on-day to close at 108.75 US dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia halted oil loadings at Yanbu port and cancelled delivery voyages to European customers, reflecting tight supply conditions that could persist for several weeks. The investment strategy therefore recommends Selective Buy, focusing on Buy on Dip timing, with a positive view on banks BBL, KTB and KBANK, insurers BLA and TLI, and energy names PTTEP, TOP, SPRC and BCP. Today's top picks are ERW with a short-term target of 3.94 baht and KTB with a short-term target of 45.25 baht.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that foreign fund flows continue to exit the Thai stock market, with foreign investors holding accumulated short positions of 48,269 contracts over the past 5 days and net selling for 3 consecutive trading days totaling over 5.2 billion baht. Technically, the SET index is forming a head and shoulders pattern, a negative signal, with the decisive neckline at 1,573 points. A break below would confirm a downtrend and risk a deeper correction testing support at 1,560 points, with a technical target of 1,520 points. However, to confirm a reversal, it must first break through resistance at 1,610 points. Additionally, the market faces overhang from Delta Taiwan's announcement of a convertible bond issuance worth up to 1.5 billion dollars, 2.86 times larger than the previous round and with a lower premium. Such deals have previously dragged Delta Thai down 6% intraday and 14.4% in T+3, and every 1 baht decline in Delta pulls the SET index down by about 1 point. The research department also recommends 3 standout stocks: BBL from the prolonged high interest rate environment and a PBV of only 0.6 times, ERW from the benefits of a weakening baht and the Thai Tiew Thai Plus project, and SCC from speculation on progress in the olefins business merger with PTTGC within this month.

Dao Securities assesses that tourist numbers have already hit their lowest point in 2Q26E and will recover prominently in 4Q26E, driven by China's National Day in October and several events in December 2026. Foreign tourist arrivals in the latest week of September 6-12 stood at 439,069, down 7% week-on-week and 22% year-on-year, or an average of 62,724 per day. The markets posting the biggest declines were Malaysia at 53,638 (-28% WoW/-63% YoY), China at 65,380 (-10% WoW/-2% YoY), and Japan at 19,628 (-5% WoW), while Russia at 18,154 (+4% WoW/+7% YoY) and India at 39,857 (+2% WoW/-26% YoY) still rose. Dao Securities estimates total tourist arrivals for 2026E at 32 million, down 3% YoY from 33 million in 2025, and Chinese tourists for 2026E at 4.8 million, up 7% YoY from 4.5 million in 2025. Cumulative arrivals from January 1 to September 12, 2026 stood at 21.72 million, down 3.38% YoY. Dao Securities assigns an "overweight" investment rating to the tourism sector. It favours CENTEL (Buy/target 48.00 baht) on RevPAR for July-August 2026 excluding Dubai rising 8% YoY and 4Q26E on-the-book growth in double digits YoY, and favours ERW (Buy/target 4.20 baht) on 3Q26E on-the-book RevPAR growth of around 5% YoY with occupancy already as high as 80%. The stocks that benefit, ranked by proportion of domestic hotels from highest to lowest, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT, SHR.

Kasikorn Securities said the Tourism Authority of Thailand is pressing ahead with the Nihao Month 2026 project to stimulate the Chinese tourist market during Golden Week and continuing into the low season. It expects about 250,000 Chinese tourists between September 25 and October 7, 2026, up 24% year on year, generating 11.5 billion baht in revenue, up 37% year on year. Advance bookings for October rose 16% and flight searches increased 24%, reflecting the recovery trend in the Chinese market. The brokerage views this as positive for tourism, hotels, airports, retail and airlines, such as AOT, CENTEL, ERW and AWC, given the likely rise in tourist numbers and spending.

CGSI, the securities firm CGS International (Thailand), said in an analysis that Thailand's foreign tourist arrivals in August 2026 came to about 2.5 million, down only 3% from the same period a year earlier, an improvement from a decline of roughly 5% in the first half of 2026, when the first quarter fell 2.4% and the second quarter fell 8.1%. The recovery was led by tourists from China and the Middle East. Chinese tourists rose 18% year on year in August 2026 to 482,000, the highest since February 2026, and accounted for 19% of total arrivals, up from 16% in August 2025, while Middle Eastern tourists increased 15% in August 2026. CGSI maintained an Overweight rating on Thailand's tourism sector, choosing THAI and ERW as its top picks. ERW has a high share of hotel business and its valuation is more attractive than peers, while THAI's profit is believed to have passed its bottom in the second quarter of 2026 and should begin recovering from the third quarter of 2026 on lower fuel costs and strong travel demand, with cabin factor at about 85% in July and August 2026. As for AOT, the increase in the departure passenger service charge, or PSC, effective since June 2026 will significantly support profit in 2027, but the share price has probably already reflected most of the benefit.

DAOL Securities (Thailand), or DAOL, is overweight the tourism sector, taking a positive view of the fourth-quarter high season on expectations that tourist numbers will rise significantly. The main driver comes from airlines gradually opening new routes and adding flights between October and December 2026 and continuing through April 2027, mostly direct flights from the United States and Europe to Bangkok, Krabi and Phuket. Between October and December, about 10 airlines are preparing to launch new routes to Thailand, including LOT Polish Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, Belavia, Lufthansa, SAS Scandinavian Airlines and Vietjet. This is in line with data from the Tourism Authority of Thailand, which plans to stimulate the market in the final four months of the year with major events and festivals to push total Thai tourism revenue in 2026 to 2.7 trillion baht and lift foreign arrivals to the target of 33 million. The research team estimates that the stocks benefiting most, ranked by the share of domestic hotels from high to low, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. For 2026, total foreign arrivals are forecast at 32 million, down 3% from a year earlier, while Chinese tourists are expected at 4.8 million, up 7% from a year earlier. On investment strategy, DAOL recommends buying CENTEL with a target price of 48.00 baht, supported by revenue per available room, or RevPAR, rising 8% year on year in July and August, while third-quarter advance bookings rose 8% year on year and fourth-quarter advance bookings grew at a double-digit pace year on year, leading it to expect a standout recovery in fourth-quarter earnings. The stock currently trades at an EV/EBITDA of just 13 times. It also recommends buying ERW with a target price of 4.20 baht, benefiting from third-quarter advance bookings with RevPAR expected to grow about 5% year on year from a low base, while the fourth quarter brings global events such as the World Bank and IMF meetings in October and the Tomorrowland music festival in December, driving a steady stream of bookings that has already pushed occupancy as high as 80%. The stock currently trades at a PER of 20 times, below its average of about 25 times.