Thai Airways International Public Company Limited

Yuanta Securities estimates that the airline group's profit in the third quarter of 2026 will fall 68% year on year, but will swing back to a positive 1.7 billion baht from a loss of 560 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, driven by THAI and BA, while AAV's loss narrowed. The fourth quarter of 2026 is a high season, but if oil prices rebound sharply on a quarter-on-quarter basis, it could pressure the group's profitability. The research team expects the group's profit in 2027 to recover year on year, supported by fleet efficiency gains and revenue per passenger that bolster profitability, and sees the airline group's long-term growth led by improved profitability from a tourism structure shifting toward value over volume and more consistent fuel hedging, alongside airport expansion and aviation hub goals. It therefore maintains a neutral weighting on the airline group, recommending a buy on THAI given the continued improvement in operating trends in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, while valuation is attractive on a higher ROE than the group, a strong financial position, and clear long-term growth from aggressive fleet expansion. It also recommends accumulating BA on dips to speculate on third-quarter 2026 earnings, which are expected to recover well quarter on quarter on the arrival of the Samui high season, with an average dividend yield of 6-7% per year expected to help limit downside.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) assesses that Thailand's hosting of the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, to be held from 12-18 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, will be a positive factor for the Thai stock market. It marks Thailand's return as host after 35 years, having last hosted in 1991, and more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries are expected. Thailand is presenting the concept "A New Horizon for Thailand: Empowering People, Strengthening Readiness for Change," and will push four main issues: the transition to digital and AI, the role of middle-sized countries in a multipolar world, coping with climate change, and preparing the economy for an aging society. Yuanta's research team cites the case study of Indonesia, which hosted in 2018, finding that the JCI Index rose 2.8% in the one month after the meetings and outperformed MSCI EM, MSCI DM and MSCI ACWI, which delivered negative returns during that period. It therefore sees the SET Index as likely to outperform regional markets. The digital and AI theme is positive for SMT, HANA, CCET, AMATA, WHA, DITTO and SKY, while the middle-sized countries theme, aimed at supporting SMEs, is positive for KBANK, SCB, KTB, SAWAD and MTC. The climate theme is positive for GUNKUL, SSP, GULF, DITTO and TEAMG, and the aging society theme is positive for BDMS, BH, BCH and CHG. It also sees the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers, namely AOT, THAI, BA, ERW, CENTEL, MINT and AWC, with several large concerts choosing to hold events in Thailand during November-December providing continued support.

Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of Research in the Investment Strategy Department at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, said on the October 8, 2569 edition of the stock news program "Jad Talad" that the Thai stock market today is likely to move sideways, even as most Asian markets come under pressure from rising US government bond yields, along with concerns over inflation, debt burdens, and geopolitical conflicts. The market still needs to watch US consumer inflation figures, or CPI, in the middle of next week. As for the MSCI index review in November, Krungsri's research team sees it as increasingly interesting, with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, having a chance to return to the MSCI index if its share price rises to around 6 baht, plus or minus, since its market capitalization adjusted for free-float proportion has already passed the preliminary threshold. Meanwhile, PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, which is currently in the MSCI Small Cap index, has a chance to move up to the MSCI Global Standard index after its share price continued to improve. Even using a stricter market capitalization threshold assumption of about 50% above the normal level, a share price of around 50 baht, plus or minus, would still likely pass the criteria, and PTTGC also has support from progress in setting up a joint venture with the Siam Cement Group, which could add upside of about 7 to 9 baht to its fundamental value. For standout stocks, Krungsri's research team recommends Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, on the domestic play theme; WHA Corporation Public Company Limited, or WHA, on the trend of attracting foreign investment; and Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, on the trend of raising medical service fees in the social security system.

Thai Airways has signed a 50-year lease for 210 rai of land with the Eastern Economic Corridor Policy Committee, or EECO, to carry out the U-Tapao aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul project, known as MRO. The contract begins on 1 October 2026, after the signing was postponed from the original date of 4 August 2026 because the Thai Airways board still had concerns about delays in the U-Tapao airport and Eastern Aviation City development project. EECO Secretary-General Chula Sukmanop confirmed there is no problem, as the site can still connect to U-Tapao's current runway. The MRO project on the 210 rai site carries an investment value of about 10 billion baht, with Thai Airways as the main investor. It is expected to take 3 to 4 years for design, construction and negotiations with partners before opening for service in 2030. The government will receive returns in two parts: land rent at a fixed rate adjusted according to the Comptroller General's Department rate, and a tiered revenue-sharing arrangement, with 3% in years 5 to 10, 5% in years 11 to 15, and 7% from year 15 onward. Thai Airways has also set up subsidiaries, Thai MRO Group Company Limited and Thai MRO Services Company Limited, each with registered capital of 1 million baht and 100% ownership, to support this project.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends a Selective Investment strategy, highlighting DRs linked to global technology stocks such as the Optical, CPU & AI Server, Semi Equipment, Cloud and Power groups, alongside Thai stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and the high season. Analysts note that the direction of US Federal Reserve policy continues to pressure the baht. If the terminal interest rate sits at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate weaker in a range of 35-37 baht per US dollar, or depreciate 4-10%, which is positive for the hospital group that treats foreign patients, such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9, as well as the tourism group like AOT, THAI and CENTEL, and the export group like TU, ITC and CPF. For the five standout stocks and interesting DRs, they include SHOP06, whose third-quarter earnings trend remains strong on the back of bringing AI to boost trading volume on its platform; MRVL06, which gets a boost from its Investor Day, where new technology is expected to be unveiled; ITC, which benefits from the weak baht and is awaiting progress on closing its merger deal in the fourth quarter of 2026; TRUE, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to expand prominently, with an interim dividend of 0.15 baht anticipated; and BH, whose revenue and patient numbers from the Middle East are recovering strongly, while the stock still has high upside. On fund flows, although foreign investors still hold Thai stocks including NVDRs amounting to 36.5% of market value, cumulative net buying since the start of the year has fallen from a peak of 75 billion baht to just 18 billion baht, after more than 50 billion baht in net selling over the past two months. However, in the latest trading session, foreign investors began switching to net buying through the NVDR channel to the tune of 2.66 billion baht, reflecting selective accumulation of individual stocks expected to post fourth-quarter 2026 earnings growth to capture the high season.

Asia Plus Securities said 10 standout stocks will benefit from the trend of a continuing weaker baht, divided into hospital groups that benefit from foreign patients, namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9; tourism groups that make it easier for foreign tourists to spend, namely AOT, THAI and CENTEL; and export groups that convert revenue back into baht at a higher rate, namely TU, ITC and CPF. The research department said the spread between the 10-year bond yield and Thailand's policy rate remains below its historical average, reflecting that the market still sees no clear signal of a change in interest rate direction. Meanwhile, factors from the United States, from the Fed's perspective, continue to pressure the baht. If the Fed's interest rate stands at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate in the range of 35 to 37 baht per dollar, or weaken from the current level by about 4% to 10%, if the end of the Fed's interest rate cycle has not yet arrived. On Thailand's water situation, the latest data indicates that many large reservoirs have water volumes exceeding capacity or near critical levels, such as Pa Sak Jolasid Dam at 110%, Nong Pla Lai Dam at 105% and Kaeng Krachan Dam at 102%. Meanwhile, medium and small reservoirs in many provinces, such as Chonburi, Trat, Ubon Ratchathani, Phrae and Phayao, have water volumes exceeding normal storage levels from 113% up to 159%. The point requiring closest monitoring is the area below Chao Phraya Dam, which has a water volume of 2,500 cubic meters per second, while it can hold 2,840 cubic meters per second.

Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said that Thai Airways International's inbound and outbound flights have been operating at 100% of normal capacity since Saturday, October 3, 2026, with no flight reductions. Cargo remaining at warehouses is down to just 3-4%, and roughly 400 pieces of baggage remain unclaimed, with staff contacting their owners. Airports of Thailand, or AOT, has given Thai Airways its full cooperation and assistance. For the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, which Thailand will host from October 12-18, 2026, with more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries, the Prime Minister has instructed the Transport Ministry to prepare from the airports onward, especially to ensure baggage handling does not create another backlog. AOT and Thai Airways have already coordinated their plans, and the war room continues to work together at all times. On transport in Bangkok, the Cabinet agreed that government agencies in the Bangkok area will work off-site on October 12, 14 and 15, 2026, while Friday, October 16, 2026, has been declared a special public holiday for government agencies in Bangkok only, to ease traffic problems. Meanwhile, the Transport Ministry, the Department of Highways, the Department of Rural Roads and the Expressway Authority of Thailand will survey cars parked on roads or bridges in flooded areas to coordinate with their owners to move them, and will prepare equipment and high-clearance vehicles together with the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, the Interior Ministry, and will seek cooperation from the armed forces. Ms. Pavina Jariyathitipong, Chief Executive Officer of AOT, said that on October 8, 2026, AOT will sign a contract with Airport Ground Services Thailand, or AOTGA, as the third operator of cargo warehouses, apron and ground equipment services, ground passenger services and other related businesses at Suvarnabhumi Airport, with a total value of more than 67 billion baht. Services are expected to begin in early 2027, while the cargo warehouse will be built as quickly as possible, taking about 18 months. Having a third operator follows a Cabinet resolution requiring one once passenger numbers exceed 45 million a year, and Suvarnabhumi currently handles more than 60 million passengers a year. AOTGA's contract also sets service performance measured through key performance indicators, along with penalties if the targets are not met, up to and including termination of the contract. These penalty conditions will also be added to the new tender for the second operator. Only Thai Airways' contract remains, with KPIs but no penalties. As for the 25-year contract term, Ms. Pavina said these projects require high investment and appropriate service fee controls, so it takes time to break even, and the appropriate period was calculated at 25 years. AOT is proceeding under the Public-Private Partnership Act of 2019. Having a third operator will ease the burden and give airlines more choices, since previously there were only two, leaving Thai Airways with no alternatives and insufficient capacity, which was one cause of flight delays.

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said several indicators of Thailand's economy are showing improvement, including rising export values and better import figures. The three major credit rating agencies, Moody's, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, continue to rank Thailand among countries with stability and a positive outlook. The economy in the third quarter just past is trending better, but the National Economic and Social Development Council still needs to finalize all indicators within two to three weeks. Agricultural exports have increased, and gross domestic product is expected to rise. Next week, Thailand will host the annual meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in 2026, or IMF–World Bank 2026, which will bring together financial leaders from 191 countries, including national leaders, finance ministers, central bank governors and various investment institutions. The prime minister believes this meeting will benefit Thailand's economy and the economic outlook for the final quarter of 2026. As for additional stimulus measures in the final quarter to keep GDP on target, the government will base them on what the situation requires and is ready to act. In addition, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas will bring Sumrit Saniang, acting Chief Executive Officer of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, to meet the prime minister in the afternoon to introduce himself and discuss past problems, as the company is recovering and its operating results are improving. The government will listen to proposals and offer advice, but cannot directly order Thai Airways because it is independent. If it wants to give policy direction, it will act through the Finance Ministry as the largest shareholder. Later, at 2:30 p.m., Anutin chaired the third meeting this year of the national committee preparing to host the 2026 annual meetings of the Boards of Governors of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund at Phakdi Bodin Building, Government House. He instructed Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited, or AOT, and airlines to prepare at full capacity to prevent a repeat of last week's problems with slow check-in systems, unclaimed baggage or flight cancellations. He also ordered preparations for a Fast Track channel for meeting participants and told relevant agencies to integrate their work on visas, immigration, security systems, public health and public relations to build confidence in Thailand.

The Ministry of Transport reported progress in resolving the crisis at Suvarnabhumi Airport involving Thai Airways International Public Company Limited. As of about 8:00 this morning, Thai Airways inbound and outbound flights were operating according to plan at 100%, with 122 inbound flights and 123 outbound flights. Leftover outbound and transit baggage fell to 150 pieces, down from a peak backlog of 7,175 pieces. Inbound baggage continued its downward trend, with 712 pieces remaining, down from a peak of 5,423 pieces. Passengers have already collected 300 pieces, leaving 412 still to be handled. On staffing, 105.48% of the planned workforce reported for duty, or 1,348 people against a plan of 1,278. As for cargo services, there is no longer any cargo left in the warehouse, though demand remains for warehouse space to accommodate shippers arriving to collect goods that have already been sorted.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends an investment strategy focused on three stocks with specific positive factors and strong earnings structures: CPALL, THAI, and BH, as a shelter from flood situations and inflation pressure. Its research department assesses that the construction materials sector is a group that benefits from flooding, while retail, hospitals, and food also receive support. Groups to watch include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture, and commercial banks, while groups negatively affected include tourism, property development, and non-bank hire-purchase. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market faced accelerating net selling by foreign investors, hitting a 39-week high for the year 2569, with a value of more than 26.8 billion baht in the past week. At the same time, domestic inflation in September 2569 is likely to accelerate to 3.0% from 2.5% the previous month, which could pressure the Monetary Policy Committee, which has currently cut interest rates to 1.00%, to consider raising rates if inflation stays at a high level for too long. In addition, Thailand must also cope with risks from storms and flash floods during 4-7 October 2569, with a preliminary assessment that if flooding persists for one week, it will cause economic damage of 5,000-10,000 million baht and drag third-quarter 2569 GDP growth down to 2.1-2.3%.

ASL Securities recommends gradually accumulating THAI shares, viewing that although operational problems are weighing on short-term sentiment, earnings momentum has begun to recover since the fourth quarter of 2026, after the THAI board resolved to remove Mr. Chai Eiamsiri from his duties as CEO, appoint a committee to investigate allegations concerning procurement and management, and install an acting CEO to oversee operations. This is seen as a short-term negative sentiment issue stemming from uncertainty over management and governance, and the investigation's outcome and the process of selecting a new CEO bear watching. During the disruption, THAI cut 15 flights on October 1 and 9 flights on October 2, before preparing to restore all flights from October 3, and opened a 24-hour collection point for stranded baggage. Meanwhile, the Suvarnabhumi cargo warehouse temporarily suspended receiving goods until October 6. The impact on 2025 profit forecasts is seen as fairly limited if the situation does not drag on, because it occurred late in the third quarter, which is the seasonal low season, while the business fundamentals still have support from fleet expansion, network optimization, and yield management. In the first half of 2026, the company still posted an operating profit of 17.4 billion baht and an operating margin of 17.5%. The pressure from the CEO change and operational problems is assessed as a short-term overhang, but if THAI returns to full service and clears the baggage and cargo issues as planned, it will help limit the impact on profit, and the earnings trend should recover in line with the high season in the fourth quarter of 2026. The average target price from the IAA Consensus stands at 7.56 baht.

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul held talks with Wouter van Wersch, Executive Vice President for International Affairs at Airbus, and Bert Porteman, a representative of Airbus Thailand, on ways to upgrade and expand cooperation between Thailand and Airbus in the aviation industry, space technology, human resource development, and clean energy. The Prime Minister affirmed the policy of promoting the aviation industry and future industries, and asked Airbus to consider broadening cooperation to cover more areas by building on the cooperation models the company has with other countries and extending them to Thailand. On clean energy, the Prime Minister proposed that Airbus promote the use of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, produced in Thailand, using Thai raw materials and agricultural output as part of the production chain. In addition, Airbus plans to establish a Center of Excellence in Thailand as a hub for developing knowledge, technology, and personnel, linking Airbus's global network to Thailand. The Prime Minister also proposed expanding cooperation in space technology and security, building on existing cooperation with the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, or GISTDA, and Thaicom Public Company Limited, as well as discussing cooperation with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited to support the goal of pushing Thailand to become the region's aviation hub.

Tisco Securities expects the combined net profit of the seven commercial banks under its coverage in the third quarter of 2026 to reach 64.5 billion baht, up 4% quarter-on-quarter but down 7% year-on-year. The performance is supported by a recovery in net interest margin, which has begun to stabilise after the Bank of Thailand's policy rate cut cycle ended. Net interest margin is expected to expand by about 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter, while total loans are likely to decline by about 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, though net interest income is still expected to grow by about 1% quarter-on-quarter. Fee income is forecast to grow 3% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year. On special items, Tisco said most banks have no significant items, except KTB, which may record an investment gain of about 3.7 billion baht from the revaluation of its 75% stake in Thai Airways International after the silent period ended in August. Tisco maintains an OVERWEIGHT view on the banking sector, with top picks KTB, KBANK and TTB. It expects BBL to post a profit of 10.128 billion baht, down 26.6% year-on-year but up 6.6% quarter-on-quarter. KBANK is expected to post a profit of 12.491 billion baht, down 4.0% year-on-year and down 5.7% quarter-on-quarter. KTB is expected to post a profit of 14.57 billion baht, down 0.3% year-on-year but up 20.2% quarter-on-quarter. SCB is expected to post a profit of 11.213 billion baht, down 7.0% year-on-year but up 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, while KKP is expected to post a profit of 2.116 billion baht, up 26.7% year-on-year but down 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

Lavaron Saengsanit, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance and Chairman of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, disclosed that the overall operations of Thai Airways have begun to ease and are moving in a better direction. As of 12:00 p.m. on October 1, 2026, Thai Airways operated a total of 196 flights out of a planned schedule of 230 flights, representing a cancellation rate of approximately 15%. On punctuality, outbound flights departed on time at 81%, while inbound flights arrived on time at 90%. In terms of managing inbound passenger baggage, passengers were able to collect 100% of their luggage. As for baggage left over from September 26, the company has cleared it all, while baggage from September 27 is gradually being collected by passengers on an ongoing basis. Currently, there are still about 2,200 leftover bags from September 27–28, and about 7,000 transit or transfer bags still pending processing. The company will expedite sorting and forwarding them to their destinations as quickly as possible through Thai Airways' flight network and partner airlines. On cargo services, Lavaron confirmed that there has been no cancellation of service whatsoever and that operations continue as normal without interruption.