Analysts remain bullish on Thai Airways, or THAI, with Tisco Securities lowering its fair value from 7.80 baht to 7.60 baht and rolling its valuation base forward to 2027 after operations were disrupted by flooding, prompting it to cut its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 4% and 34% to 16.631 billion baht and 16.474 billion baht respectively. The revisions reflect the impact of more than 160 cancelled flights and 360 million baht in additional compensation costs stemming from heavy rainfall on 26 September 2026. Tisco estimates that THAI may also face compensation liabilities for cancelled flights to destinations in the European Union under EU261 rules, adding roughly 430 million baht to the net profit impact. The 34% cut to its 2027 net profit forecast includes an additional 5% reduction in average fares from its previous estimate, with average fares now expected to fall 10% overall, in line with the strategy of raising aircraft utilisation and supporting ASK growth of 18% next year as planned. Meanwhile, Yuanta Securities Thailand maintains its buy rating on THAI and picks it as a top pick in the airline sector, with a 2027 fair value of 8 baht, keeping its net profit forecasts at 17.002 billion baht for this year and 22.675 billion baht for next year. It sees the impact as limited because services were reduced for only 2-3 days, and views the stock's pullback on negative sentiment as an opportunity to accumulate.
Thai Airways International Public Company LimitedTisco cut THAI's 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 4% and 34% and lowered its target price to 7.60 baht after flooding disrupted operations.
