Passenger Airlines

Delta Air Lines reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.72, missing the consensus estimate of $1.81, while revenue of $20.186 billion beat the consensus estimate of $17.654 billion. The airline lowered its fiscal-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $5.10 to $5.60 from $6.50 to $7.50, against a consensus estimate of $5.59, and guided fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share to $1.15 to $1.65 versus the consensus estimate of $1.51, with sales of $17.527 billion versus the consensus estimate of $17.192 billion. Delta said its business has structural durability in a high-fuel-cost environment and that it will absorb a $6 billion increase in fuel costs, with fourth-quarter guidance assuming fuel at the forward curve as of Oct. 2 and including a refinery benefit of about 40 cents per gallon, resulting in a projected all-in fuel price of about $4.25 per gallon. The report is a read-through for American Airlines, which cut its 2026 outlook in July to adjusted earnings per share guidance of negative 65 cents to positive 65 cents after record second-quarter revenue was almost entirely offset by an 83% jump in fuel costs; unlike Delta, American does not hedge fuel and has no refinery to offset it.

Delta Air Lines reported third-quarter 2026 results that beat Wall Street's revenue estimate but missed adjusted earnings expectations, and cut its full-year earnings outlook as higher fuel costs pressured profitability. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.72 per share, missing the $1.81 estimate, while revenue rose 21% year over year to $20.186 billion, beating the $17.654 billion estimate. Adjusted operating revenue climbed 16% to a record $17.585 billion, with passenger revenue up 15% to $15.534 billion, premium-ticket revenue up 18% to $6.818 billion, and Main Cabin revenue up 12% to $6.802 billion, though adjusted operating margin narrowed to 9.4% from 11.1% a year earlier. Adjusted fuel expenses surged 62% to $4.143 billion as the average fuel price rose 60% to $3.61 per gallon, and CFO Erik Snell said quarterly earnings absorbed more than $500 million in additional fuel costs versus the early July forecast. Delta lowered its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to $5.10-$5.60 per share from $6.50-$7.50, against the $5.59 estimate, and guided fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.15-$1.65 per share versus the $1.51 estimate, with revenue of $17.527 billion and an operating margin of 7%-9%, assuming fuel costs of about $4.25 per gallon. CEO Ed Bastian said Delta still expects approximately $4.5 billion in full-year pretax profit despite absorbing a $6 billion increase in fuel costs, along with about $2.5 billion in free cash flow and more than $2 billion in debt repayment this year.

Chai Eamsiri, Chief Executive Officer of Thai Airways, reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission that on 9 October 2026 he sold 45,500 THAI shares at 5.60 baht per share, for a total of approximately 254,800 baht, through Krungsri Securities. After this sale he holds 500 shares remaining. The share sale came after the Thai Airways board resolved to immediately suspend Chai from his position as CEO on 2 October 2026, amid a confidence crisis stemming from flooding in Bangkok and an ongoing investigation. THAI shares closed at 5.65 baht, up 0.10 baht, or 1.80%, with trading value of 123.86 million baht.

Delta Air Lines cut its 2026 profit forecast after fuel costs surged to record levels, even as revenue stayed strong. Management tied the heavier fuel bill to external factors including geopolitical risks affecting global energy supply chains, and reiterated that travel demand remains robust while it adjusts guidance for higher operating expenses. The carrier, a roughly $53.7b US airline, now faces a fourth quarter 2026 checkpoint against its US$1.15 to US$1.65 EPS range and 7% to 9% operating margin, which implies full year EPS of US$5.10 to US$5.60 under current fuel conditions. The forecast cut shifts the focus from demand resilience to how effectively Delta can pass through costs and manage its balance sheet and high debt load without relying solely on volume.

Delta Air Lines cut its guidance after missing third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, which the airline attributed to rising fuel costs. In a separate development, Microsoft pushed back against the Trump administration's H-1B restrictions. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos also said recently that Blue Origin will hold an IPO in the future. The items were discussed by a market panel that included Business Insider Today executive editor Dan DeFrancesco, Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian, SHAKTI partner Liz Harrow, Wall Street veteran Turney Duff, and Zacks Investment Management chief market strategist Brian Mulberry.

Delta Air Lines shares fell about 5% in premarket trading after the carrier reported September-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share, missing the $1.82 consensus estimate, and lowered its full-year profit outlook to about $5.35 per share. Adjusted revenue rose 16% to $17.59 billion but came in slightly below expectations, with Delta citing elevated fuel costs that surged 62% to $4.14 billion in the quarter; the airline absorbed more than $500 million in additional fuel costs versus its early July guidance and expects $6 billion in higher fuel expenses for the full year. Tesla shares gained about 3.6% after China Passenger Car Association data showed deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from its Shanghai factory rose 5% year-over-year to 95,366 units in September, extending its streak of annual sales gains to 11 consecutive months, while third-quarter shipments of Shanghai-built vehicles grew 13.7% even as global deliveries declined 2.1%. Apple shares fell about 2.6% in premarket trading on reports it cut component orders for some iPhone 18 Pro models after weaker-than-expected demand, and telecom stocks dropped sharply after SpaceX agreed to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license, with AT&T down 8%, Verizon Communications down 7.8%, and T-Mobile US down 7.6%, while SpaceX shares rose 4.3%. Ambarella shares rose 5.3% following reports that Qualcomm may be working with advisers on a possible deal to acquire the chip designer, speculation circulated via a Betaville alert that follows prior reports Ambarella is in advanced talks with potential buyers including NXP Semiconductors. Wall Street regained some momentum on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, the Dow up 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.5%.

Delta Air Lines reduced its full-year earnings outlook, sending its shares down 2.6% in premarket trading, after persistently high jet fuel prices tied to the war in the Middle East pushed fuel costs $500 million higher in its most recent quarter. The carrier said strong travel demand was not enough to offset the higher fuel expense, and unlike European airlines, U.S. carriers do not hedge jet fuel, leaving them more exposed to spot prices. Humana surged after 18 of its Medicare Advantage contracts received ratings of at least four stars, up from seven a year earlier, a jump that can translate into bonuses worth billions of dollars and boost future revenue. CVS shares fell as ratings for some of its largest plans deteriorated, while UnitedHealth shares were little changed in premarket trading. Apple shares slipped after a report that the company cut component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max following weaker-than-expected demand.

The current bull market is on track to become the seventh since the 1950s to complete at least four full years on October 12th, according to a new analysis by Truist Co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner. The 119% advance sits near the middle of the pack when measured against every bull market dating back to the 1950s, well below the 401% gain during the 2009 to 2020 cycle and the 582% gain from 1987 to 2000, while the historical average advance in Lerner's measurement period is 184%. Over the 10 prior bull markets, six lasted longer than four years. But early signs of trouble are emerging this earnings season as inflation hits corporate America: Delta said its fuel expense rose by nearly $2 billion year-over-year, a 69% increase, and guided well below consensus on fourth-quarter earnings because of higher fuel prices. PepsiCo cut its full-year profit outlook on Thursday, in part because of inflation hitting all areas of its business, from wheat and corn to the diesel in the trucks that deliver potato chips to supermarkets.

Delta Air Lines posted its first earnings miss in two years, ending a seven-quarter streak of beats, with Q3 earnings of $1.72 per share falling 8 cents or 4.44% short of the Zacks consensus and revenue of $17.59 billion coming in 0.89% below estimates. The company's press release pointed to fuel costs as the problem, up 62% year over year and about $500 million more than the company guided back in July, with those costs now expected to continue into next quarter's numbers and forward estimates moving lower. Ahead of the open, pre-market futures were higher, with the Nasdaq up 210 points, the Dow up 59 points, the S&P 500 up 25 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 up 6 points, while bond yields sat at 5.26% on the 10-year, 4.79% on the 2-year and 5.265% on the 30-year. Oil prices were down modestly despite Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking Saudi Arabia's Riyadh airport and killing three, with WTI trading around $91 per barrel and Brent crude at $103 per barrel, off recent highs but plateauing at four-year highs. At 10 am ET, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Survey for October is expected to tick up slightly to 48 from 47.8, still below the 50 threshold that indicates negative consumer sentiment. Next week brings September CPI and PPI data, after last month's year-over-year CPI of 3.4% and PPI of 5.4%, along with the start of big-bank earnings on Tuesday, when JPMorgan is seen gaining 17% on earnings and 12% on revenues, Citigroup 18.75% on earnings and 7% on revenues, and Wells Fargo 7% on earnings and 3% on revenues.

Humana shares surged 13% after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services upgraded its primary Medicare Advantage contract, designated H5216, to four stars for 2027, restoring eligibility for quality bonus payments across roughly 2.4 million members. Kopin rose 4% on an $18.6 million sole-source U.S. Army contract for MicroLED microdisplay work, bringing total program funding to $34 million. SpaceX gained 2% after an $8 billion cash deal with Grain Management for up to 14 MHz of nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum, a move that sent T-Mobile US, Verizon Communications and AT&T each down more than 6%. On the losing side, Alignment Healthcare tumbled 18% after its primary California contract fell to 3.5 stars, while Delta Air Lines fell 2% on September-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.72 versus the $1.82 consensus and a lowered full-year outlook, with adjusted fuel expense up 62% to $4.14 billion. Apple slipped 2% after Nikkei Asia reported it cut October component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max by 15% to 20%.

Delta Air Lines missed third quarter revenue and adjusted earnings estimates, with its quarterly fuel bill hitting $4.1 billion, up 62% from a year ago, prompting the carrier to cut its full-year EPS and cash flow guidance. CEO Ed Bastian told reporters the full impact of the guidance cut was "all fuel," with the annual fuel bill now seen at $6 billion, and Delta projects fourth quarter fuel costs of 4250 cents a gallon, roughly a dollar more than this quarter, though it expects its refinery benefit to more than double to 40 cents a gallon. Delta is the only major US airline that still operates a refinery, which gave it a 13 cent per gallon benefit this quarter against an adjusted fuel price of 361 cents a gallon. Separately, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI expects to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by year end, up from approximately $50 billion at the end of September, though the Financial Times reported the figure is likely to be closer to $50 billion, a discrepancy driven by how OpenAI and Anthropic count cloud partner revenue. Anthropic also updated its terms to add a prohibition on sustained and needless abusive or cruel behavior toward its models, meaning users can express frustration but Claude will end a conversation if they are too mean. SpaceX's purchase of a swath of low-band spectrum, aimed at a future terrestrial direct-to-cell network with a presumed target of early 2028 service, sent AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile shares sharply lower, though JPMorgan said it sees limited near-term risk for US wireless incumbents given the time, infrastructure and capital required to build a competitive network. Nikkei reported that Apple has told some suppliers to cut October component production for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by at least 15% versus initial requests, with one source describing 15% to 20% cuts for both premium models, after higher memory chip costs pushed prices to $1199 and $1299, each $100 above the preceding models.

Delta Air Lines ended a seven-quarter streak of earnings beats, reporting Q3 earnings of $1.72 per share that missed the Zacks consensus by 8 cents, or 4.44%, while revenues of $17.59 billion came in 0.89% short of estimates. The company's press release pointed to fuel costs as the problem, up 62% year over year and a cool $500 million more than the company guided back in July, with those costs now expected to continue into next quarter's numbers. Ahead of the open, pre-market futures were higher, with the Nasdaq up 210 points, the Dow up 59 points, the S&P 500 up 25 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 up 6 points, while bond yields sat at 5.26% on the 10-year, 4.79% on the 2-year and 5.265% on the 30-year. Oil prices moderated despite escalating Middle East hostilities, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking Saudi Arabia's Riyadh airport and killing three, as WTI traded around $91 per barrel and Brent crude at $103 per barrel, off recent highs but plateauing at four-year highs. At 10am ET, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Survey for October is expected to tick up slightly to 48 from 47.8, still below the 50 threshold that indicates negative sentiment, and next week brings September CPI and PPI data along with the start of Q3 bank earnings from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Tuesday morning.

Delta Air Lines reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter results and cut its full-year earnings outlook, sending its shares down 4% premarket. The airline earned an adjusted $1.72 per share on revenue of $17.59 billion, below the $1.75 per share and $17.67 billion analysts polled by LSEG had expected, with the company citing higher fuel costs. SpaceX shares rose 4% after Grain Management announced an agreement to sell its nationwide 800 megahertz spectrum portfolio to SpaceX, a move expected to bolster Starlink Mobile's capabilities. The spectrum announcement sent telecom providers lower, with T-Mobile down 7%, AT&T nearly 6% lower and Verizon off more than 5%, while tower stocks American Tower and Crown Castle gained 6% and almost 8% respectively. Humana surged 14% after its largest Medicare Advantage contract saw its rating improve under the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' 2027 Star Ratings, while Alignment Healthcare cratered 23%. Apple fell more than 2% after Nikkei Asia reported the company was cutting component orders for its iPhone 18 Pro, with October production orders for that device and the iPhone 18 Pro Max cut by 15% from original plans.

Delta Air Lines reported September-quarter earnings below Bloomberg estimates and lowered its full-year profit outlook as higher fuel costs weighed on margins, sending shares down about 5% in premarket trading on Friday. Adjusted earnings were $1.72 a share, below the $1.82 Bloomberg consensus estimate, while adjusted revenue rose 16% to $17.59 billion, slightly missing the $17.66 billion estimate. Adjusted operating income fell 2% to $1.66 billion and the operating margin narrowed to 9.4% from 11.1% a year earlier, as adjusted fuel expense surged 62% to $4.14 billion and non-fuel unit costs rose 7.3%. Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said demand remains strong and noted September-quarter pre-tax profit of $1.5 billion matched the year-earlier performance despite the elevated fuel-cost environment. For the December quarter, Delta expects adjusted earnings per share of about $1.4 at the midpoint, below the $1.48 consensus estimate, on revenue growth of about 20% with seats growing less than 2%; Chief Financial Officer Erik Snell said the outlook assumes fuel prices of about $4.25 a gallon. Delta forecasts full-year adjusted earnings of about $5.35 per share at the midpoint, compared with Bloomberg's $5.44 estimate, and free cash flow of about $2.5 billion, with Bastian saying the company expects to absorb a $6 billion increase in fuel costs for the full year.

Delta Air Lines on the 9th cut its full-year profit forecast by about 25% at the midpoint. Travel demand remained solid and airfares rose, but that was not enough to offset a sharp jump in fuel costs. Delta expects annual fuel costs to rise by about 6 billion dollars from a year earlier, and said third-quarter fuel costs climbed 62% year on year to 4.1 billion dollars, more than 500 million dollars above its July assumption. Chief Financial Officer Erik Snell said fuel was "everything" behind the lowered profit forecast, noting that both crude oil and refined jet fuel prices rose after the summer. The company set its full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast at 5.10 to 5.60 dollars, down from 6.50 to 7.50 dollars in July, with the new midpoint of 5.35 dollars below the analyst average estimate of 5.46 dollars compiled by LSEG. For the third quarter, adjusted earnings per share came in at 1.72 dollars, slightly below the analyst average estimate of 1.76 dollars, while the adjusted operating margin fell to 9.4% from 11.1%. Demand remains strong, and according to Snell, nearly 60% of fourth-quarter seats are already booked, with revenue expected to rise about 20% year on year. Delta expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 1.15 to 1.65 dollars, with the midpoint of 1.40 dollars roughly in line with the analyst average estimate of 1.39 dollars.

Delta Air Lines reported that its non-fuel unit costs ticked higher as fuel costs surged, according to a chart-based review of the carrier's results. The airline posted non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.72, missing estimates by $0.04, while revenue of $20.2B beat expectations by $1.28B. The cost pressure comes as Delta's third-quarter setup pits revenue strength against EPS cuts and rising fuel expenses. The charts highlight the margin resilience test facing the airline as it manages the fuel-driven cost increase.

Delta Air Lines reported quarterly earnings of $1.72 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.8 per share, an earnings surprise of -4.44%. Revenue for the quarter ended September 2026 came in at $17.59 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.89% but up from $16.67 billion a year ago. A quarter earlier, Delta posted earnings of $1.56 per share against an expected $1.51, a surprise of +3.31%, and the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters. Ahead of the release, the estimate revisions trend was unfavorable, translating into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). The current consensus EPS estimate is $1.60 on $17.36 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $5.34 on $66.84 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year. Delta shares have added about 18.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 13.4%.

Barclays downgraded Ryanair and Norwegian Air Shuttle to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing persistently high fuel prices that threaten fourth-quarter and 2027 profits across European airlines. Analysts led by Andrew Lobbenberg cut Ryanair's price target to €24 from €28.50 and Norwegian's to NOK 11.50 from NOK 20, with the bank now pricing estimates off the current fuel forward curve, producing moderate cuts for the rest of 2026 and larger ones in 2027 when hedging is lower. Barclays' estimates sit below Bloomberg consensus this year and, the analysts said, "very significantly" below next year. The crack spread between crude and kerosene has widened, offsetting any moderation in crude prices, and Barclays doubts airlines can pass the costs on, writing that "Airlines do not set fares - the market does." Low-cost carriers are most challenged because fuel is about 47% of revenue on Barclays' estimates, and Ryanair faces a hedging cliff with cover dropping from 80% in March 2027 to 15% in April. Barclays kept Underweight ratings on Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and Finnair, named IAG its preferred major airline, and kept Overweight ratings on Aegean, Jet2, TUI and Wizz, calling Wizz a "more speculative" call.

The Transport Ministry is preparing to review Thai Airways International's ground handling and cargo service contracts at Suvarnabhumi Airport in order to add penalty conditions for service failures, after large numbers of baggage and cargo items were left stranded between September 26 and 30, 2026, even though both contracts still have 15 years remaining. Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said he had already discussed the matter with the permanent secretary of the Transport Ministry and Airports of Thailand, and that initially it was deemed necessary to add penalties similar to those in the contracts for apron and ground equipment services and the third cargo service project, for which Airports of Thailand has just signed a joint investment contract with Bangkok Flight Services, which already includes penalty provisions, as well as the second operator, WFS-PG Cargo, whose contract has expired and for which Airports of Thailand is now reopening bidding with penalty conditions as well. Phiphat said he would discuss with Thai Airways and the Finance Ministry as the supervisory authority, including Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, that contracts without penalties cannot be accepted. As of October 8, 2026, there were still 80 unclaimed bags whose owners had not been found, with Airports of Thailand tasked with urgently coordinating with Thai Airways to deliver all the bags to passengers. As for the removal of Thai Airways' CEO, Phiphat said it is a matter for the Thai Airways board and the Finance Ministry, not the Transport Ministry.

Southwest Airlines has lowered its earnings guidance for the third quarter and full year, citing surging fuel costs and plans to trim capacity growth despite healthy demand. The carrier has simultaneously been pushing deeper into digital engagement and loyalty, including an AI booking plugin and a burnout-focused Rapid Rewards campaign, as it looks to offset cost pressures through product and marketing innovation. Southwest's narrative projects $35.8 billion in revenue and $2.6 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 6.0% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.8 billion earnings increase from $837.0 million today. Before this fuel-driven guidance cut, the most optimistic analysts were modeling revenue of about US$38.6 billion and earnings near US$3.7 billion, far more upbeat than consensus. The latest guidance cut keeps fuel at the center of the near-term story, since elevated prices and slower growth directly affect margins and the key earnings recovery catalyst.

Delta Air Lines is set to report third-quarter results on October 9, with Wall Street expecting $1.76 non-GAAP EPS and $18.92B in revenue. Revenue expectations remain firm, but earnings estimates have weakened as higher fuel costs threaten margins, and the current consensus EPS of $1.76 sits below even the low end of management's own guidance of $2.00-$2.50 adjusted EPS. Over the past three months, EPS has seen 10 downward revisions versus 7 upward revisions, while revenue has recorded 7 upward revisions and no downward revisions. The pressure was already visible in the second quarter, when adjusted revenue jumped 13.9% to $17.7B on a 12.4% increase in TRASM, but adjusted EPS fell 26% to $1.56 as fuel expense surged 77% to $4.4B and non-fuel CASM rose 6.8%. Fuel remains the key swing factor: the second-quarter adjusted fuel price reached $3.93 per gallon, and a refinery outage is expected to affect the third quarter. Delta has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of its last 8 quarters and revenue estimates in all 8, and shares recently traded near $81.81, up about 19% year to date.

EasyJet is cutting an additional 700,000 seats from its winter schedule as the low-cost carrier battles rising fuel costs. Chief executive Kenton Jarvis said the extra cutbacks amount to roughly two days' worth of flying capacity, or an average of 3,500 individual flights over the period, and follow a summer decision to remove 700,000 seats. Jet fuel prices nearly doubled after the outbreak of war in Iran disrupted supply chains in the Strait of Hormuz, and although prices have begun to ease they remain well above airline expectations. EasyJet, which has agreed to a £5.7bn takeover by US private equity giant Apollo, hopes the schedule cuts will reduce its reliance on high-cost fuel. Rival Ryanair has trimmed its winter schedule by as much as 4pc, and its boss Michael O'Leary warned high fuel costs could persist for another 18 months, saying airlines face an enormous cost challenge next year. Rising jet fuel costs are expected to deal a $100bn blow to the aviation sector this year, according to industry body Iata, pressure that has already pushed carriers including Spirit Airlines and AirBaltic into bankruptcy.

Ryde reported a first-half GAAP loss of $0.07 per share alongside revenue of $5.2M, according to the company's press release. The figures cover the company's first-half results. No further details on the results were provided in the release.

Southwest Airlines holds a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) as surging fuel costs pressure the carrier's outlook. Southwest absorbed nearly $900 million in additional fuel expense year over year in the second quarter alone, and its Q3 guidance assumed jet fuel of $3.70 to $3.75 per gallon based on the forward curve as of July 17, an assumption now at risk after oil moved sharply higher. The company reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $0.94 per share on July 22, beating the $0.52 consensus, but revenue of $8.43 billion missed expectations of $8.58 billion, and it guided Q3 earnings to $0.50 to $0.75 per share, below the $0.77 consensus at the time, while widening full-year EPS guidance to a range of $3.25 to $4.25 from its prior call of more than $4.00. Capacity growth for 2026 has been cut roughly in half from the original plan of 2% to 3%, and over the last 60 days the current-year consensus has dropped from $3.41 to $3.16 while next year's estimate fell from $5.44 to $5.04. Southwest reports Q3 results after the close on October 21, with the Earnings ESP at -9.84% and the Most Accurate Estimate of $0.57 below the $0.63 consensus.

DBS Vickers assesses that the Ministry of Finance's revival of the exit fee on departures from the kingdom, at 1,000 baht per trip collected through airline tickets and applied to both Thai and foreign travellers, is a negative sentiment for the tourism and airline sectors. Although this issue surfaced in late April 2026, at that time it applied only to Thais and could not be implemented. This time it is more likely to proceed because a public consultation has already opened. The research team cites 2025 figures showing about 15 million Thais travelled abroad and roughly 28 million foreign tourists excluding Malaysians. It expects that if the fee is actually collected, it could be worth as much as 43 billion baht per year. At 1,000 baht per person per trip, that represents only 2.1% of tourist spending per trip of 48,000 baht per person based on 2025 data, and in 2027 airfares are expected to fall in line with oil prices, which would help soften the impact. The research team favours an overweight stance on the tourism sector, selecting CENTEL with a target of 48.00 baht and ERW with a target of 4.20 baht as top picks. For the aviation sector it also sees negative sentiment, ranking the affected stocks from most to least affected as AAV, AOT, BA and THAI. THAI and BA are moderately affected because they are full-service airlines whose fares are already high, while AAV, a low-cost carrier flying short-haul routes, will be hit harder, with average round-trip fares to Malaysia and Vietnam of 4,000 to 7,000 baht set to rise by 15% to 25%. However, Thai AirAsia derives 55% of its revenue domestically, which may offset some of the impact if Thais turn to travelling within the country more. As for AOT, with a target of 73.00 baht, the research team expects a secondary impact through PSC revenue from international outbound passengers and duty-free revenue if fewer Thais travel abroad, though foreign passengers are not expected to be much affected.

The Ministry of Finance, through the Excise Department, has opened a public hearing on a draft law to levy an outbound travel tax on all travellers regardless of nationality, not only Thais, at a rate of 1,000 baht per flight for air travel, with a tax ceiling of no more than 5,000 baht per person. The tax would be collected through airlines or ticket sellers, with exemptions for children aged no more than 2 years, international transit passengers who do not leave the transit lounge area, and connecting passengers who must stay inside the airport. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports is gathering proposals for a draft 450-baht fee on foreign tourists arriving in the country by air, to be submitted to the Cabinet for consideration; it is not yet in effect either. Analysts at InnovestX Securities estimate that if both the 1,000-baht exit tax and the 450-baht entry fee take effect together, the travel cost for foreign tourists would rise by a combined 1,450 baht per trip, or about 3% of average spending per trip. The biggest impact would fall on short-haul tourist groups such as ASEAN, which accounts for 41% of all tourists, and India at 7%, with average spending of about 40,000 baht and 37,000 baht per trip respectively, raising costs by roughly 4% of total spending. The Chinese market at 17%, Europe at 25% and the Middle East at 2% are expected to be affected less, given higher spending per trip of about 54,000 baht, 64,000 baht and 88,000 baht per person respectively. As for the impact on stocks, AAV is seen as the most affected in the sector because it is a low-cost airline with a price-sensitive customer base and a high proportion of short-haul passengers, while AOT faces a low-to-moderate impact. THAI and hotel groups AWC, CENTEL, ERW and MINT are expected to be least affected, as they focus on mid-to-upper-end customers. The brokerage maintains its forecast of 33 million foreign tourists in 2026 and 35 million in 2027, with top picks ERW at a target price of 4.3 baht, CENTEL at 47 baht and AOT at 72 baht.

Shares of Thai Airways International, or THAI, are at risk of missing out on inclusion in the new MSCI index calculation, the results of which will be announced on the morning of 13 November 2026, after the share price fell below the minimum threshold of 6.50 baht. Previously there had been speculation that THAI shares had a chance of entering the index this round, since its free float already met the criteria and its market cap also reached the threshold. At the end of 2025 the price stood at 6.95 baht, with a market cap of 196.708 billion baht. THAI shares currently trade at just over 5 baht, down from a peak of 19.40 baht. The company has also faced a string of problems, from the drama at its annual general meeting of shareholders and the appointment of a new board that expanded the number of directors to 15 from 11, to concerns over creditors who converted debt into equity at a cost of 2.5452 baht and whether they will sell their shares, and to two days and two nights of heavy rain that battered Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, causing major flooding, flight delays and tens of thousands of bags left stranded at Suvarnabhumi Airport, and leading to an order suspending cargo services between 1 and 6 October 2026, an order that those involved have since cancelled. Meanwhile, the board has ordered the suspension of Chai Eamsiri, CEO of Thai Airways, over allegations that the flood situation damaged the company's reputation.

Analysts remain bullish on Thai Airways, or THAI, with Tisco Securities lowering its fair value from 7.80 baht to 7.60 baht and rolling its valuation base forward to 2027 after operations were disrupted by flooding, prompting it to cut its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 4% and 34% to 16.631 billion baht and 16.474 billion baht respectively. The revisions reflect the impact of more than 160 cancelled flights and 360 million baht in additional compensation costs stemming from heavy rainfall on 26 September 2026. Tisco estimates that THAI may also face compensation liabilities for cancelled flights to destinations in the European Union under EU261 rules, adding roughly 430 million baht to the net profit impact. The 34% cut to its 2027 net profit forecast includes an additional 5% reduction in average fares from its previous estimate, with average fares now expected to fall 10% overall, in line with the strategy of raising aircraft utilisation and supporting ASK growth of 18% next year as planned. Meanwhile, Yuanta Securities Thailand maintains its buy rating on THAI and picks it as a top pick in the airline sector, with a 2027 fair value of 8 baht, keeping its net profit forecasts at 17.002 billion baht for this year and 22.675 billion baht for next year. It sees the impact as limited because services were reduced for only 2-3 days, and views the stock's pullback on negative sentiment as an opportunity to accumulate.