Finance Ministry drafts 1,000-baht exit tax per trip; brokers say AAV hit hardest

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Summary · why it matters

The Ministry of Finance, through the Excise Department, has opened a public hearing on a draft law to levy an outbound travel tax on all travellers regardless of nationality, not only Thais, at a rate of 1,000 baht per flight for air travel, with a tax ceiling of no more than 5,000 baht per person. The tax would be collected through airlines or ticket sellers, with exemptions for children aged no more than 2 years, international transit passengers who do not leave the transit lounge area, and connecting passengers who must stay inside the airport. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports is gathering proposals for a draft 450-baht fee on foreign tourists arriving in the country by air, to be submitted to the Cabinet for consideration; it is not yet in effect either. Analysts at InnovestX Securities estimate that if both the 1,000-baht exit tax and the 450-baht entry fee take effect together, the travel cost for foreign tourists would rise by a combined 1,450 baht per trip, or about 3% of average spending per trip. The biggest impact would fall on short-haul tourist groups such as ASEAN, which accounts for 41% of all tourists, and India at 7%, with average spending of about 40,000 baht and 37,000 baht per trip respectively, raising costs by roughly 4% of total spending. The Chinese market at 17%, Europe at 25% and the Middle East at 2% are expected to be affected less, given higher spending per trip of about 54,000 baht, 64,000 baht and 88,000 baht per person respectively. As for the impact on stocks, AAV is seen as the most affected in the sector because it is a low-cost airline with a price-sensitive customer base and a high proportion of short-haul passengers, while AOT faces a low-to-moderate impact. THAI and hotel groups AWC, CENTEL, ERW and MINT are expected to be least affected, as they focus on mid-to-upper-end customers. The brokerage maintains its forecast of 33 million foreign tourists in 2026 and 35 million in 2027, with top picks ERW at a target price of 4.3 baht, CENTEL at 47 baht and AOT at 72 baht.

Impact on assets 7

Consumer Discretionary▼
Industrials▼
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited
AAV
▼ NegativeTariffrelevance

AAV is seen as the most affected airline because the proposed 1,000-baht exit tax hits its price-sensitive, short-haul low-cost customer base hardest.

Airports Of Thailand PCL
AOT
▼ NegativeTariffrelevance

AOT faces a low-to-moderate impact from the proposed outbound travel tax and 450-baht foreign tourist entry fee that would raise travel costs.

Real Estate▼
Aerospace & Aviation▼