← Thai Airways International overview

Thai Airways International vs Bangkok Airways: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI.BK)

Latest
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Flood chaos hits flights, cargo; CEO ousted, but recovery and MRO deal emerge

  • Flood-driven staff shortage forces flight cuts and baggage chaos Bangkok flooding left Thai Airways short of ground staff, delaying nearly all flights, stranding thousands of bags, and forcing it to cancel about 30% of Bangkok departures and 59 flights. This directly hits peak-season revenue and adds compensation costs, weighing on profit and the share price.

    This is the core new operational shock that explains the stock's weakness this period.

  • Cargo warehouse suspended, 12,000 tons backlogged Thai Airways halted inbound and outbound cargo at its Suvarnabhumi warehouse for six days, creating a 12,000-ton backlog and drawing government pressure. Cargo is a profit source, so this disruption adds to the earnings hit and reputational damage.

    It shows the flood impact spreading beyond passengers into cargo, a second new negative force.

  • Board ousts CEO Chai, opens investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri and appointed an acting chief pending a fact-finding probe into crisis management. Leadership uncertainty can weigh on the stock until a permanent CEO and strategy are clear, though a fresh start could eventually help.

    This is a major new governance event that adds uncertainty and explains negative sentiment.

  • Operations recover; U-Tapao MRO deal signed Thai Airways restored full flights by October 3 and cleared most bags, while brokers see limited profit impact and a fourth-quarter high-season recovery. It also signed a 10-billion-baht U-Tapao maintenance centre lease, a long-term growth project.

    This is the main new counterweight showing the disruption is temporary and long-term plans remain on track.

Q3 2026
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Thai Airways Q3 mixed: profit trough, but fuel, lock-up, floods weigh

  • Q2 profit trough and core earnings beat Q2 marked the profit trough, with core earnings beating expectations on higher fares and cargo revenue. This suggests the worst may be over, supporting recovery hopes.

    It signals a potential turning point in profitability, a key driver for the stock.

  • Lower oil prices and broker upgrades Lower oil prices and broker upgrades (KKPS Buy, 9.20 baht target) provided support. Fleet expansion under Jump+ plan and FTSE Small Cap inclusion also boosted sentiment.

    These factors directly improve cost outlook and investor perception, driving price.

  • Q2 profit plunge and share lock-up expiry Q2 profit plunged 87% on doubled jet fuel costs and weak demand. The expiry of a 19.8bn-share lock-up created heavy selling pressure, weighing on the stock.

    These are major negative events that pressured the stock price during the quarter.

  • Bangkok flooding and CEO suspension Bangkok flooding caused cancellations, a 12,000-ton cargo backlog, and 30% capacity cuts. The CEO's suspension adds leadership uncertainty, further dampening investor confidence.

    Operational disruptions and management instability are significant negative drivers.

September 2026
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Thai Airways: FTSE boost, flood disruptions, CEO suspended

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion and winter schedule expansion Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index and expanded its winter schedule to 998 weekly flights. Strong bookings with an 85% cabin factor support its 200 billion baht revenue target.

    This point highlights the positive operational and market developments that drove investor sentiment during the period.

  • Bangkok flooding causes flight cancellations and cargo backlog Severe flooding in Bangkok forced dozens of flight cancellations, stranded over 5,600 bags, cut capacity by 30%, and suspended cargo operations with a 12,000-ton backlog, disrupting operations.

    This point captures the major operational disruption that negatively impacted the airline's performance during the period.

  • CEO suspended pending investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri pending an investigation, creating leadership uncertainty and potentially affecting strategic execution and investor confidence.

    This point addresses the governance and leadership risk that emerged during the period.

  • Brokers recommend gradual accumulation on cheap valuation Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a cheap 6.9x 2027 P/E, a 7.56 baht target, lower fuel costs, and expected high-season earnings recovery, despite recent disruptions.

    This point shows analyst optimism and the factors that could drive future price recovery.

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Thai Airways: index inclusion, winter schedule, and bookings offset fuel cost pressure

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion draws index-tracking buyers Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index effective September 18-21, 2026. Funds that track the index must buy the stock, creating steady demand. This is a one-time technical event that can lift the share price as new buyers step in.

    This is a new, concrete event that directly increases demand for THAI shares.

  • Winter schedule adds flights and routes, boosting revenue outlook Thai Airways launched its winter 2026/2027 schedule with 998 weekly flights across 66 routes, including a new Bangkok-Da Nang service and more flights to Europe. More flights mean more revenue, supporting the company's 200 billion baht full-year target.

    This is a new operational expansion that directly supports future revenue and earnings.

  • Strong bookings and 85% cabin factor signal resilient demand KGI Securities said 3Q69 bookings grew year on year, helped by a European route recovery and an 85% cabin factor. The fourth quarter is expected to grow with the tourism season. This shows demand is holding up despite high fuel costs, supporting earnings.

    This is new analyst evidence that passenger demand remains strong, a key driver of profit.

  • CEO search adds uncertainty but also a chance for fresh strategy Thai Airways opened applications for a new CEO to succeed Chai Eamsiri, whose term ends in January 2027. The new leader must handle 80 billion baht in debenture debt and a 55-aircraft order plan. Uncertainty over leadership can weigh on the stock, but a strong new CEO could improve execution.

    This is a new governance event that could affect investor confidence and future strategy.

August 2026
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Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

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Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

July 2026
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THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

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THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (BA.BK)

Q3 2026
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Bangkok Airways outperforms weak tourism on Samui strength, stimulus

  • Samui demand and capacity expansion Passengers to Samui rose 14–20% year-on-year, helped by more flights and government tourism stimulus. This strong demand is the main reason Bangkok Airways is doing better than the weak overall tourism market.

    It explains the core operational strength that drove the stock's outperformance.

  • Earnings beat and analyst support Q2 2026 core profit beat expectations by 46%. Analysts rate BA a top pick with targets of 22.40–25 baht, supported by a 0.55 baht interim dividend and treasury share sales.

    It shows the financial results and analyst actions that boosted investor confidence.

  • Oil prices fall but jet fuel still high Falling oil prices help, but jet fuel remains 66% above last year, keeping earnings exposed. This mixed fuel picture is a key factor behind profit swings.

    It captures the main cost pressure that partly offsets revenue gains.

  • Revived 1,000-baht departure fee A revived 1,000-baht departure fee is a new headwind, moderately affecting BA and weighing on airline sentiment. This adds a fresh cost for travelers and could dampen demand.

    It is the main new regulatory cost pressure that emerged this period.

August 2026
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Bangkok Airways outperforms weak tourism on Samui strength, stimulus

  • Samui demand and capacity expansion Passengers to Samui rose 14–20% year-on-year, helped by more flights and government tourism stimulus. This strong demand is the main reason Bangkok Airways is doing better than the weak overall tourism market.

    It explains the core operational strength that drove the stock's outperformance.

  • Earnings beat and analyst support Q2 2026 core profit beat expectations by 46%. Analysts rate BA a top pick with targets of 22.40–25 baht, supported by a 0.55 baht interim dividend and treasury share sales.

    It shows the financial results and analyst actions that boosted investor confidence.

  • Oil prices fall but jet fuel still high Falling oil prices help, but jet fuel remains 66% above last year, keeping earnings exposed. This mixed fuel picture is a key factor behind profit swings.

    It captures the main cost pressure that partly offsets revenue gains.

  • Revived 1,000-baht departure fee A revived 1,000-baht departure fee is a new headwind, moderately affecting BA and weighing on airline sentiment. This adds a fresh cost for travelers and could dampen demand.

    It is the main new regulatory cost pressure that emerged this period.

Latest
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Samui demand, stimulus, dividends and U-Tapao progress drive BA; exit fee is a new headwind

  • Samui demand stays strong and BA is expanding capacity Advance bookings for Samui rose 6% after the island won a best-island award, flights are nearly full, and BA is adding Phuket-Samui flights, more private-jet parking and a bigger terminal. July flights and passengers to Samui grew 19-20% year on year, and BA kept its 2026 targets of 48,000 flights and 80% load factor. More passengers mean more revenue.

    This is the core demand engine behind BA's earnings and the main reason brokers stay positive.

  • Government tourism stimulus and high-season events lift travel demand Thailand is rolling out domestic tourism stimulus with airfare discounts and hotel subsidies, plus events and more flights, expected to boost travel from late 2026 into the high season. Chinese Golden Week bookings to Phuket jumped 78%. More travellers on BA's routes support passenger numbers and fares.

    Government stimulus and returning Chinese tourists are fresh, concrete demand catalysts for BA's routes.

  • Cash returns and analyst support: dividend, treasury shares, top-pick ratings BA approved a 0.55 baht interim dividend and a sale of 25.7 million treasury shares, returning cash and improving capital efficiency. Brokers including Yuanta, Pi, Maybank and Finansia named BA a top pick with targets around 22.40-25 baht, citing Samui strength and dividend yield.

    These are new capital-return actions and fresh broker endorsements that directly support the share price.

  • U-Tapao progress and a possible Samui fee hike add long-term upside, but a new exit fee is a headwind BA's 40%-owned U-Tapao airport venture got the go-ahead to start work, a long-term positive. BA also plans to raise Samui passenger service charges, which could add about 5% to profit. But a revived 1,000-baht departure fee would hurt sentiment for airlines, with BA moderately affected.

    It captures the real new counterweight (exit fee) alongside genuine long-term positives, giving a fair picture.

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Bangkok Airways: Samui Demand and Cheap Oil Outweigh Weak Tourism

  • Q2 profit beats expectations BA's second-quarter 2026 core profit of 349 million baht came in 46% above what analysts expected. Strong travel demand on Samui routes and high dividend income helped offset a 49% jump in fuel costs. This shows the business is holding up better than feared, supporting the stock.

    A profit beat is a direct, company-specific reason the stock can move up.

  • Government tourism stimulus on the way A new stimulus plan offers 1 million entitlements with accommodation subsidies and travel coupons, expected to boost domestic travel from November 2026 to February 2027. KGI upgraded the transport sector to overweight, naming Bangkok Airways as a beneficiary. More domestic travel means more passengers for BA.

    This is a fresh, concrete policy catalyst that lifts demand for BA's domestic flights.

  • Samui airport passenger growth stands out While overall tourist arrivals and nationwide passenger volumes fell year-on-year, Samui airport passengers grew 14% year-on-year. Krungsri rates BA a Buy with a 25 baht target, and Pie Securities also recommends buying BA, citing rising Samui passengers in July and August. This shows BA's key route is outperforming the wider market.

    It explains why BA is singled out even as the broader aviation sector struggles.

  • Falling oil helps, but high fuel costs still bite Crude oil falling below $100 eases pressure on airlines, and brokers see BA benefiting from softer fuel prices. But jet fuel remains 66% higher than last year and above full-year assumptions, so BA's 2026 earnings are still exposed to oil risk. The oil tailwind is real but not yet fully in the clear.

    It gives the fair counterweight: a positive oil move offset by still-elevated fuel costs.