Yuanta forecasts airline profits to swing positive at 1.7 billion baht in Q3 2026

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Yuanta Securities estimates that the airline group's profit in the third quarter of 2026 will fall 68% year on year, but will swing back to a positive 1.7 billion baht from a loss of 560 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, driven by THAI and BA, while AAV's loss narrowed. The fourth quarter of 2026 is a high season, but if oil prices rebound sharply on a quarter-on-quarter basis, it could pressure the group's profitability. The research team expects the group's profit in 2027 to recover year on year, supported by fleet efficiency gains and revenue per passenger that bolster profitability, and sees the airline group's long-term growth led by improved profitability from a tourism structure shifting toward value over volume and more consistent fuel hedging, alongside airport expansion and aviation hub goals. It therefore maintains a neutral weighting on the airline group, recommending a buy on THAI given the continued improvement in operating trends in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, while valuation is attractive on a higher ROE than the group, a strong financial position, and clear long-term growth from aggressive fleet expansion. It also recommends accumulating BA on dips to speculate on third-quarter 2026 earnings, which are expected to recover well quarter on quarter on the arrival of the Samui high season, with an average dividend yield of 6-7% per year expected to help limit downside.

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