United States 30 Year Bond Yield

In a report dated the 8th, CoinShares said that for Bitcoin's rise to continue, it needs inflows driven by fiscal concerns rather than interest rate expectations. Inflows into crypto funds have lost momentum this week after reaching a cumulative 11.1 billion dollars since mid-July. Behind this is the fact that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has topped 5.3% and the 30-year yield has reached 5.7%, both the highest levels in more than 20 years. In August, the U.S. Treasury doubled the cap on long-bond buybacks to more than 4 billion dollars per operation from 2 billion dollars, covering September 9 to November 4, but September was the worst month for U.S. Treasuries in four years, with the 10-year yield rising by more than 0.5 percentage points. CoinShares analyzed that if the rise in yields reflects concerns about fiscal sustainability, Bitcoin will begin to look less like a conventional risk asset and more like an alternative to government-issued money, and said the inflows from hedging against fiscal concerns are what will turn Bitcoin's grind higher into a sustained rally, a figure to watch in the coming weeks.

US Treasury yields rose today after the market digested the results of this week's bond auctions. As of 6:51 p.m. Thailand time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury stood at 5.244%, while the 30-year Treasury yield stood at 5.617%. On Thursday, the US Treasury sold 22 billion dollars of 30-year government bonds, with indirect bidders, including foreign central banks, purchasing more than 72% of the amount offered in the auction, above the average of 68% across the past 10 auctions. On Wednesday, the US Treasury sold 39 billion dollars of 10-year government bonds. Investors are also watching the situation in the Middle East, after US President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States will not attack Iran before the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a permanent voting member of the Fed's monetary policy committee, voiced support for a Fed rate hike, saying the Fed may need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, provided the economic data due out in the coming days continues to come in as expected. Investors are watching next week's releases of the consumer price index and the producer price index, which will indicate the direction of interest rates, ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting on October 27-28.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 5.3% today after Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, voiced support for the Fed raising interest rates. As of 10:15 p.m. Thailand time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.305%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.663%. Speaking at the Istanbul Economic Forum, Waller said the Fed may need to raise rates further to bring inflation back to its 2% target, provided the economic data due out in the coming weeks continue to come in as expected. He noted that the increases need not come in consecutive meetings, but should be carried out within an appropriate timeframe. He also said he supports a rate hike in September, not only because of the August consumer price index data but also because months of evidence show hiring remains strong and inflation has stayed persistently high. He expressed concern that the recent pickup in inflation is pushing consumers, investors, and businesses that set prices for goods and services to raise their expectations for future inflation.

Silver fell to the $59.00 area on Thursday, nearing two-month lows, as rising oil prices and high Treasury yields weighed on precious metals. Reports of a new wave of attacks on Saudi Arabian airports by the Iran-backed Houthis pushed Brent crude above $101.50, more than 5% above Tuesday's lows, souring market sentiment and lifting the safe-haven US Dollar. The oil rally also boosted Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield above 5.30% and the 30-year note paying above 5.7%, a few percentage points below 24-year highs. Technically, XAG/USD is extending its reversal from late August highs above $70.00, with bulls capped below the neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern; bears now target the two-month low at $59.00, with the next target at the late July and early August lows near $56.50, while a recovery would first need to reclaim the $62.00 area.

Global stock markets are facing pressure on multiple fronts. The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds jumped to 5.7%, the highest in 24 years, while Brent crude oil rose to $101.2 per barrel as the Middle East war drags on with uncertainty. This month has seen at least nine attacks on ships, about half the number for all of September, and the IRGC has threatened to close illegal routes. There are also reports that President Donald Trump may order strikes on Iran before the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish: the September FOMC meeting minutes showed a unanimous 12-0 vote to raise rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with one more hike expected before year-end to curb inflation that has stayed above target for more than five years. The core stance remains higher for longer. However, US inflation data due on October 14 could shift market views. Concerns about a yield shock feeding into funding costs are rising and increasing risks to asset quality, especially NPLs and credit costs, causing European bank stocks, which are relatively sensitive, to be sold off heavily. The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index fell 3.3% amid pressure on major banks: Societe Generale down 5.0%, Deutsche Bank down 4.7%, ABN AMRO down 4.4%, and UniCredit down 4.2%. Thailand is preparing to host the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings from October 12-18, a key platform to showcase Thailand's potential and direction for upgrading its economic structure to policymakers, financial institutions, and global investors. Seven front-line industries represent the new growth engine: food with CBG, CPF, and ITC; modern automotive with AH, MGC, and KGEN; retail with CPALL and CRC; smart electronics and digital with DELTA and GULF; medical and wellness with BH and BDMS; tourism with AOT, CENTEL, and BEM; and creative economy with PLANB and BEC. These are sectors where Thailand has strong existing business bases and can extend into higher value-added activities. On foreign fund flows, although weightings have been reduced in several Asian markets, especially South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Taiwan, yesterday Thai fund flows began to show positive signs in both markets after heavy selling. Foreigners net bought 1.72 billion baht of Thai stocks and 6.26 billion baht of Thai bonds, a total net inflow of about 7.98 billion baht in a single day. Since the start of October, foreigners have still net sold about 7.44 billion baht of Thai stocks, but on the bond side, October has returned to net buying of 5.80 billion baht, reflecting that foreign flows are starting to show signs of selectively returning to some Thai assets. Strategically, from September 22 to October 6, 10 stocks stood out as being gradually accumulated by foreigners both directly and via NVDR: CPF, SCB, SAWAD, BH, BDMS, PTTGC, PTT, TOP, IRPC, and IVL. These fall into three themes: laggard, high season, and energy-petrochemicals. The RRG picture for most stocks is in the improving-leading zone or shows strong RS-momentum. For today's three Thai top picks, we choose BEM, which has a chance to win the contract for the southern Purple Line electric train and is poised for record annual profit in the third quarter; SCC, which benefits from the olefins business merger with PTTGC but whose share price still lags; and ITC, which benefits from the weak baht theme and is awaiting an M&A deal with companies in China and the US expected to conclude in 2026, offering further upside.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note pulled back to 5.286% after surging to 5.35%, its highest level since 2002, while the 30-year yield also retreated from a 24-year high to 5.666%. The pullback came after the US Treasury auctioned 39 billion dollars of 10-year notes on Wednesday, October 7. Analysts at BMO viewed the auction as strong, as bids from non-dealers came in above average. Indirect bidders, which include central banks around the world, accounted for 80.3% of the total auction, above the 72.4% average of the last 10 auctions. Direct bidders took 17.1%, slightly below the 18.3% average, while dealers took just 2.5%, far below the 9.4% average. The auction was the second of three by the US Treasury this week, following 58 billion dollars of 3-year notes on Tuesday, October 6, and a 22 billion dollar 30-year auction is due today, October 8. The bond market has faced heavy selling pressure recently on concerns over inflation and surging oil prices, with the 10-year yield up 0.60% since the end of July, while US crude oil prices have jumped 20% over the same period.

Kasikorn Research Center, or KResearch, estimates that the baht today will move within a range of 33.55 to 33.70 baht per dollar, after this morning trading at around 33.62 to 33.64 baht per dollar, compared with yesterday's market close of 33.70 baht per dollar. The baht strengthened slightly, in line with the yen's appreciation amid concerns over intervention by Japanese authorities, but it still faces depreciation pressure from the decline in global gold prices. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded on signs of tension in the Middle East, following reports that the United States may consider striking Iran before the midterm elections, with Brent crude holding above 101 dollars per barrel. The dollar remains supported by rising US bond yields amid expectations that US interest rates will stay high and that the Fed still has room to keep raising rates in the period ahead, even if not at this month's FOMC meeting, after the Fed meeting minutes reflected that the majority agreed on the need to raise rates before year-end. Yesterday, 10-year and 30-year US bond yields hit new 24-year highs of 5.35% and 5.72% respectively. Key factors to watch include the situation in the Middle East, foreign fund flows, the direction of US bond yields, and US weekly jobless claims figures.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies in trading at the New York foreign exchange market after U.S. Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in decades, supported by expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates again this year. The dollar index rose 0.4% to 102.242, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note jumped to 5.350%, the highest level since 2002. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 5.724%, a 24-year high, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.818%. Concerns over supply disruptions from the war with Iran pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation worries and increasing the odds that central banks will extend their rate-hiking cycles, which triggered a global bond selloff. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed that officials were divided over the rationale for a 0.25% rate increase. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in only a 17.2% chance of a Fed rate hike at the October meeting, down from 37.6% a week earlier, but assigned an 85% probability to a Fed rate hike at the December meeting.

SpaceX plans to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, a move panelists said could contribute to structural changes in the economy. On a Yahoo Finance panel, Tematica Research chief investment officer Chris Versace said the $40 billion is good for Nvidia and also for custom silicon players such as Broadcom, though it is nerve-racking for SpaceX as it ramps capacity to monetize AI. Yahoo Finance anchor Julie Hyman noted the report covers a planned raise, with borrowing rates still unknown on a day when the 30-year yield is again at a 24-year high. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said SpaceX plans to tap the market for $30 billion as a triple B rated credit that insurers and pension funds can buy, and argued AI is beginning to crowd out public and private investment, pushing rates higher. Brusuelas said a fundamental transformation of a $32.6 trillion economy brings structural changes including much higher inflation and interest rates, and that the Fed is underestimating what it will take to restore price stability under these conditions.

Gold prices fell close to breaking below the $4,100 level today, pressured by a stronger dollar and a rebound in US government bond yields. As of 10:33 p.m. Thailand time, spot gold was down $54.31, or 1.45%, at $4,106.37 an ounce, while COMEX December gold futures fell $60.70, or 1.45%, to $4,126.40 an ounce. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond jumped to 5.724%, its highest level in 24 years. The 10-year yield rose to 5.350%, its highest since 2002, and the 2-year yield climbed to 4.818%. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said that even if conflict in the Persian Gulf region ends soon, energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. Meanwhile, investors are watching for the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, held in September, at which the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023.

US Treasury yields climbed today, with the 30-year bond yield, which often responds to geopolitical risk, hitting 5.724%, its highest in 24 years. The 10-year yield, the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt, rose to 5.350%, its highest since 2002, while the 2-year yield, which tends to track the Fed's policy rate decisions, stood at 4.818%. The US Treasury is due to auction 39 billion dollars of 10-year notes today, the second of three auctions this week, after auctioning 58 billion dollars of 3-year notes yesterday, and is scheduled to auction 22 billion dollars of 30-year bonds on Thursday. Investors are also watching the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting in September, which marked the first rate hike since 2023, to gauge policymakers' views on the economy.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, or JSCCIB, has approved support for the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan, which targets Thai economic growth of no less than 3% per year and expansion of 5.5% in GDP for target industries, in line with the seven business groups under Reinvent Thailand and recommendations from the World Bank. The JSCCIB is ready to help drive the plan through the Provincial Joint Public-Private Consultative Committee mechanism in three phases: Stabilize Today, to address urgent problems and unlock obstacles; Transition Now, to accelerate adaptation to new technologies and standards; and Invest for Tomorrow, to invest in future industries, skills, and infrastructure. On the oil price situation, Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the JSCCIB meeting, said Brent crude rose from 95 dollars per barrel in September to 102 dollars per barrel, while the yield on 30-year US government bonds reached 5%, the highest in 20 years, pushing up private-sector borrowing costs and leaving the baht at risk of weakening. For Thai economic projections, this month's JSCCIB meeting kept them unchanged from September, expecting GDP to grow 2.1-2.5% this year, exports to expand 12-16%, and inflation at 2.5-3.0%. The meeting also agreed that the government should speed up solving problems with air cargo transport at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which handles goods worth about 2.42 trillion baht, or roughly one-third of total export value, but still suffers from congestion, while flooding has caused flight delays and cancellations and left large numbers of passengers and baggage stranded.

Hua Seng Heng stated that gold prices declined in September amid pressure from continuously rising US government bond yields. The 10-year yield climbed to around 5.29%, while the 30-year yield rose above 5.6%, the highest level in decades, after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% at its September meeting to a range of 3.75-4.00%. Hua Seng Heng noted that high bond yields are a direct pressure on gold, as it is an asset that pays no interest. When bond returns rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases accordingly, especially if real yields rise at the same time. The impact also extends to the cost of bond issuance, business loans, and fundraising, particularly among large technology companies that continue investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure. It is estimated that combined AI and infrastructure investment by major hyperscalers exceeds 700 billion dollars, while Goldman Sachs estimates that investment by these companies could rise to 1.1 trillion dollars by 2027. Hua Seng Heng assesses that the next key factor is the September US Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release on October 14. If inflation slows more than the market expects, it could allow bond yields to ease and support gold prices. It recommends gradually accumulating gold as prices approach 4,000 dollars per ounce, or domestic gold bar prices of around 64,000 baht per baht-weight of gold.

One year after surging to an all-time high above $126,000 on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin has declined only 32%, sitting at $85,453, according to data from Coinpedia. That is a far gentler slide than past bear markets, which fell 69.7% after the 2013 peak, 82.3% after the December 2017 peak, and 74.6% after the November 2021 peak, according to CoinDesk calculations. This time, the low point, just under $59,000 on June 30, amounted to a drop of more than 53% from the peak, and it arrived sooner, roughly nine months after the peak rather than a year or more as in previous cycles. Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, said the market drivers have shifted from retail traders and leverage to institutional capital through ETFs, asset management giants, family offices, and corporations. The sell-off on October 10 last year triggered more than $19 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives markets and unwound most of the leverage. Bitcoin's annualized volatility now stands at around 40%, well below its long-term historical level that once exceeded 80%, while the annualized implied volatility index, DVOL, is pinned at about 35. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, warned that implied volatility is near its lowest percentile on record and that the one-year option skew remains neutral to bearish, noting that the depth of the next drawdown will be decided by 30-year U.S. Treasury yields, which recently climbed to a high of 5.7%, a level last seen in April 2002, and are up more than 80 basis points this year.

Finno Mina Public Company Limited, or FINNO, reported that government bond markets worldwide have again come under heavy selling pressure, pushing long-dated US Treasury yields to their highest level in more than 24 years. Yields on 10-year and 30-year bonds rose by more than 7 basis points to 5.34% and 5.70% respectively, the highest since 2002. The selling came after the US ISM Services index for September, which although slowing, saw its Prices Paid component surge to 74, the highest since July 2022. At the same time, continued growth in artificial intelligence infrastructure investment has led the market to assign greater weight to the possibility that the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates late this year. BMO Asset Management estimates that the 30-year US Treasury yield could breach 6% this month, which if it happens would be the highest since 2000. Pressure has also spread to European markets, with the yield spread between French and German government bonds widening. Pablo Hernandez de Cos, a senior official at the Bank for International Settlements, warned that central banks may face more complex and difficult challenges in handling future financial crises, after global public debt rose close to its highest level since the end of World War II. The Bank for International Settlements also warned of risks from the rapid expansion of non-bank financial institutions such as hedge funds and pension funds, as well as stablecoins and AI, and the spread of information through social media, which could accelerate the eruption of a liquidity crisis. It views the Bank of England's approach in 2022, buying assets with a limited size and a clear time frame, as a model that can reduce moral hazard risk, but if a large and prolonged crisis occurs, action by central banks alone may not be enough and would require cooperation from governments, regulators and many countries.

Gold futures on the New York market closed lower on Friday, October 2, with COMEX December-delivery gold falling $40.00, or 0.95%, to settle at $4,162.30 an ounce, pressured by the dollar's appreciation this week and by 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields, which surged on Thursday to their highest levels since 2002. Early in the session, gold prices had risen more than 1% on news of a sharp slowdown in U.S. employment figures, after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 economists had expected, while the August figure was revised down to an increase of 133,000 from the previously reported 162,000. Analysts assess that gold's direction over the coming months will depend on the stance of the U.S. central bank and how much weakness in the labor market it is willing to accept, while the Fed continues to give priority to controlling inflation. Since the war between the United States, Israel and Iran began in late February, gold prices have fallen by more than 20%, as investors worry that war-driven inflation will force the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. However, the latest inflation data came in below expectations, and the stance of at least two senior Fed officials who voted against a rate hike in October has led investors to begin expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at its meeting late this month, consistent with data from the CME FedWatch Tool showing that investors now assign only a 22% probability to a Fed rate hike this month, down sharply from 70% early in the week.

Asian stock markets opened lower today as investors worried that elevated oil prices could accelerate inflation and force central banks to keep interest rates high for an extended period. Rising US government bond yields, which have climbed to multi-year highs, also continued to weigh on risk assets. Japan's Nikkei index opened down 0.93% at 68,313.46 points, while South Korea's composite index opened down 0.47% at 6,938.27 points. The yield on 10-year US government bonds jumped to 5.327%, the highest level since April 2002, while the yield on 30-year US government bonds climbed to 5.678%, a 24-year high. Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said US inflation remains above the Fed's annual target and that the Fed still needs to raise interest rates significantly. However, surging bond yields may help bring inflation under control, which would reduce the need for more restrictive monetary policy. In addition, the US government has told Germany and France to release emergency diesel reserves to help lower soaring global fuel prices, warning that without action the United States could consider banning exports of US diesel. Meanwhile, China announced it will suspend exports of oil products in October amid concerns about domestic stockpiles.

US stock markets closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending at 50,906.05 points, down 443.87 points or 0.86%, and the S&P 500 closing at 7,651.54 points, down 19.30 points or 0.25%, pressured by elevated oil prices and bond yields. The Nasdaq closed at 26,861.06 points, up 63.52 points or 0.24%, supported by buying in technology stocks. Headline PCE for August rose 3.4% year on year, below market expectations of 3.7%, while Core PCE rose 3.0% year on year, below expectations of 3.3%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose above 5.3% and the 30-year yield above 5.6%. Investors are therefore watching September Nonfarm Payrolls, which the market expects to rise by 98,000 positions, compared with 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate forecast at 4.1%. In European markets, the STOXX Europe 600 closed at 634.89 points, down 3.19 points or 0.50%, with bank stocks down 0.8% and insurance stocks down 1.4%. The DAX closed at 25,199.19 points, down 200.02 points or 0.79%, and the CAC 40 closed at 7,964.51 points, down 71.36 points or 0.89%, while the FTSE 100 closed at 10,606.00 points, down 30.71 points or 0.29%. In Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 opened at 67,106.52 points, up 352.80 points or 0.53%, boosted by buying in large technology stocks, while the KOSPI fell 0.8% and the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.09%. The Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng Index were closed for China's National Day holiday. Thailand's stock market is expected to trade in a volatile and consolidating range, with sentiment pressured by surging US bond yields and concerns over continued foreign fund outflows. The stock to watch today is THAI, after the cancellation or rescheduling of domestic and international flights between October 1 and 3, 2026, along with efforts to clear backlogged baggage at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which could weigh on confidence and the company's short-term operations.

U.S. stock futures opened October in the green, with the Dow up 179 points, the Nasdaq up 169 and the S&P 500 up 32 points, helped by Brent crude holding at $100 per barrel and WTI near $90 per barrel. Bond yields continued to climb, with the 10-year at 5.285%, the 2-year at 4.858% and the 30-year at 5.637%, keeping mortgage rates elevated. Initial jobless claims came in at 197K last week, down 3K from expectations and 1K from the upwardly revised prior week, marking the third-straight sub-100K jobless claims report. Continuing claims reached a new near-term low of 1.701 million, down 11K month over month and below the downwardly revised 1.712 million from the previous week, remaining near 60-year lows for a third straight week. Later this morning, September Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise 3.1% on the S&P print and 0.3 points for ISM, while August Construction Spending is expected to rebound 0.1% after a 0.5% decline a month ago.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note surged to its highest level since 2002 amid a global bond selloff, after oil prices climbed on Middle East war tensions, stoking inflation concerns and raising expectations that central banks worldwide may need to hike interest rates further. The US 10-year bond yield rose as much as 6 basis points to 5.34% on Thursday, breaching its previous peak set in 2007. Earlier in the week, the US 30-year bond yield also jumped to a 24-year high. Data from Bloomberg indices showed that global government bonds just suffered their worst quarter since 2024, while Thursday's selloff pushed the UK 30-year government bond yield to 6% for the first time since 1998. Some analysts and investors believe US bond yields could also reach that level. Steven Barrow of Standard Bank Advisory said the rise in government bond yields is a long-term structural development, with financial markets adjusting to a New Normal of higher yield levels. The market is now watching Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report, with a Bloomberg survey of analysts forecasting a gain of 85,000 jobs in September. Investors are also tracking remarks from several Fed officials, including Fed Governor Chris Waller. The market currently expects the Fed to raise rates four more times, by 0.25% each, by the end of 2027.

The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond climbed to its highest level since 2002, breaking through 5.61% on Tuesday, September 29, rising for a sixth consecutive day amid intensifying selling pressure in global bond markets worth roughly 32 trillion dollars, driven by inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, and a heavy volume of corporate debt issuance. Michael Cloherty, head of US rates strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, said that while long-term bond yields look attractive in value terms compared with past levels, the market has yet to see clear large-scale buying step in to support them. Part of the inflation pressure stems from high oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East, prompting investors to increase bets that several central banks, including the Fed, may need to raise interest rates further. However, those expectations eased somewhat after John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said another increase in the target rate range may be appropriate late this year, sending the 2-year US Treasury yield down by as much as 0.05% before moving around 4.89%, while the 10-year yield stood at about 5.25%, near its highest since 2007, and US Treasuries have returned a total of negative 2.6% since the start of this year, compared with a gain of 6.3% last year. Pressure is also coming from a wave of corporate bond issuance, with Paramount Skydance Corp. beginning to offer investment-grade notes as a key part of a 52 billion dollar financing package for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery; the company plans to raise about 32 billion dollars through bond sales, and Monty Gandhi, a rates strategist at SMBC, said the offering ranks as the fifth-largest investment-grade bond deal ever.

The US dollar strengthened against major currencies in New York foreign exchange trading on Tuesday, September 29, after US Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs. The dollar index rose 0.17% to 101.372, while the 30-year bond yield jumped to 5.6206%, the highest level since June 2002, and the 10-year bond yield climbed to 5.293%, the highest since June 2007. New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed still has time to assess data before deciding on another rate hike, but Fed Governor Michael Barr and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee continued to signal support for tighter monetary policy. Investors are watching the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, due today, with analysts expecting headline PCE to rise 3.7% in August year on year and core PCE to rise 3.4%. Nonfarm payrolls, due Friday, October 2, are expected to increase by 98,000 in September after rising 162,000 in August, and the September unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. In the latest data, the Conference Board's US consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, below analysts' expectations of 89.0, and JOLTS job openings fell by 256,000 to 7.079 million in August, below the forecast of 7.225 million.

In New York financial and bond market trading on the 29th, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly rose into the 5.62% range, reaching its highest level in about 24 years since June 2002, according to Reuters. Concerns over accelerating inflation and a widening fiscal deficit are weighing on the bond market. Amid the turmoil in the Iran situation, worries over rising energy prices and fiscal expansion risks have intensified in various countries, adding pressure that is prompting bond selling. Massive corporate bond issuance by artificial intelligence-related companies is also pressuring the government bond market.

The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond climbed to a 24-year high today amid inflation concerns and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The 30-year yield, which typically responds to geopolitical risk, jumped to 5.613%, its highest level since 2002. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield, the main benchmark for setting rates on mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt, rose to 5.285%. The 2-year yield, which tends to move in line with the Fed's policy rate decisions, was little changed at 4.922%. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are pricing in a 70.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its October meeting and a 94.9% probability of a hike at the December meeting. Investors are watching several economic data releases this week, especially the August personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation gauge the Fed prioritizes, due on Wednesday. Analysts expect headline PCE to rise 3.7% year on year and 0.4% month on month, while core PCE is expected to rise 3.4% year on year and 0.3% month on month. The US Labor Department will release September nonfarm payrolls on Friday, October 2, with analysts expecting job growth of 98,000, down from 162,000 in August, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

Market strategist Ed Yardeni is blaming the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade for a global bond market rout and the return of the bond vigilantes. Yardeni dismissed the idea that surging global bond yields are solely the result of inflation fears tied to Middle Eastern conflicts and rising oil prices, noting that U.S. breakeven inflation rates remain surprisingly subdued. Instead, he pointed to the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate and blowing up the highly lucrative yen carry trade, which for years let institutional investors borrow yen at rock-bottom rates and buy higher-yielding assets worldwide, particularly U.S. Treasuries and other government debt. That artificial demand, he said, allowed governments to run massive budget deficits without their borrowing costs spiking, and the vulnerability was laid bare in the summer of 2024 when the BOJ raised rates just as U.S. economic data fueled expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, sparking a frantic automated unwinding and a cross-asset global selloff in early August 2024. Earlier on Tuesday, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2002, underscoring how far borrowing costs have climbed at the far end of the curve.

Asian stock markets opened lower this morning amid concerns that rising oil prices, driven by tensions between the United States and Iran, will add to inflation pressure and keep interest rates elevated. Japan's Nikkei index opened down 0.5% at 65,557.99 points, and South Korea's composite index opened down 0.7% at 6,844.41 points. Meanwhile, gold prices fell more than 3%, dropping below the $4,200 level to hit their lowest in more than seven weeks. COMEX December gold futures fell $152.80, or 3.54%, to close at $4,168.40 an ounce. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds jumped past 5.2% to 5.261%, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.571%. President Donald Trump said the White House is still considering a ban on diesel exports. Separately, Reuters reported, citing sources, that Qatari mediators may hold separate talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York and with the U.S. side on Monday or Tuesday. In addition, a federal court jury ruled that Apple must pay more than $5.7 billion, or more than 191 billion baht, to Taction Technology Inc for infringing two of the company's patents.

The US dollar strengthened against major currencies in trading on the New York foreign exchange market on Monday, September 28, as rising oil prices led the market to expect that the US central bank may raise interest rates further to curb inflation. The dollar index rose 0.22% to 101.197, while the US dollar strengthened against the yen to 157.40 yen from 157.13 yen on Friday, and the euro weakened against the US dollar to 1.1368 dollars from 1.1399 dollars. Crude oil prices surged about 3% after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditional proposal regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, before paring gains later. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped above 5.2% to 5.261%, and the 30-year yield reached 5.571%. Several Fed officials signaled support for further rate hikes, with Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, saying on Monday that she expects inflationary pressures to continue rising in the coming months due to demand related to artificial intelligence technology and higher oil prices. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool indicated that investors priced in a 70.3% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 0.25% at its October meeting, up from 57.6% last week and 17.7% last month. Analysts expect the September nonfarm payrolls figure, to be released on Friday, October 2, to show an increase of 98,000 jobs, after a gain of 162,000 in August, and expect the September unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.