Global stocks swing as 30-year US bond yield hits 5.7%, Brent crude tops $101

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Global stock markets are facing pressure on multiple fronts. The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds jumped to 5.7%, the highest in 24 years, while Brent crude oil rose to $101.2 per barrel as the Middle East war drags on with uncertainty. This month has seen at least nine attacks on ships, about half the number for all of September, and the IRGC has threatened to close illegal routes. There are also reports that President Donald Trump may order strikes on Iran before the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish: the September FOMC meeting minutes showed a unanimous 12-0 vote to raise rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with one more hike expected before year-end to curb inflation that has stayed above target for more than five years. The core stance remains higher for longer. However, US inflation data due on October 14 could shift market views. Concerns about a yield shock feeding into funding costs are rising and increasing risks to asset quality, especially NPLs and credit costs, causing European bank stocks, which are relatively sensitive, to be sold off heavily. The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index fell 3.3% amid pressure on major banks: Societe Generale down 5.0%, Deutsche Bank down 4.7%, ABN AMRO down 4.4%, and UniCredit down 4.2%. Thailand is preparing to host the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings from October 12-18, a key platform to showcase Thailand's potential and direction for upgrading its economic structure to policymakers, financial institutions, and global investors. Seven front-line industries represent the new growth engine: food with CBG, CPF, and ITC; modern automotive with AH, MGC, and KGEN; retail with CPALL and CRC; smart electronics and digital with DELTA and GULF; medical and wellness with BH and BDMS; tourism with AOT, CENTEL, and BEM; and creative economy with PLANB and BEC. These are sectors where Thailand has strong existing business bases and can extend into higher value-added activities. On foreign fund flows, although weightings have been reduced in several Asian markets, especially South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Taiwan, yesterday Thai fund flows began to show positive signs in both markets after heavy selling. Foreigners net bought 1.72 billion baht of Thai stocks and 6.26 billion baht of Thai bonds, a total net inflow of about 7.98 billion baht in a single day. Since the start of October, foreigners have still net sold about 7.44 billion baht of Thai stocks, but on the bond side, October has returned to net buying of 5.80 billion baht, reflecting that foreign flows are starting to show signs of selectively returning to some Thai assets. Strategically, from September 22 to October 6, 10 stocks stood out as being gradually accumulated by foreigners both directly and via NVDR: CPF, SCB, SAWAD, BH, BDMS, PTTGC, PTT, TOP, IRPC, and IVL. These fall into three themes: laggard, high season, and energy-petrochemicals. The RRG picture for most stocks is in the improving-leading zone or shows strong RS-momentum. For today's three Thai top picks, we choose BEM, which has a chance to win the contract for the southern Purple Line electric train and is poised for record annual profit in the third quarter; SCC, which benefits from the olefins business merger with PTTGC but whose share price still lags; and ITC, which benefits from the weak baht theme and is awaiting an M&A deal with companies in China and the US expected to conclude in 2026, offering further upside.

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％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

FOMC minutes show unanimous 12-0 vote to hike rates 0.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, with one more hike expected before year-end, pushing the effective fed funds rate higher.

％United States Government Bond 10Y
US-10Y
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Hawkish Fed stance and 'higher for longer' rates, plus the 30-year yield hitting a 24-year high, are pushing Treasury yields up across the curve.