Summary · why it matters
One year after surging to an all-time high above $126,000 on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin has declined only 32%, sitting at $85,453, according to data from Coinpedia. That is a far gentler slide than past bear markets, which fell 69.7% after the 2013 peak, 82.3% after the December 2017 peak, and 74.6% after the November 2021 peak, according to CoinDesk calculations. This time, the low point, just under $59,000 on June 30, amounted to a drop of more than 53% from the peak, and it arrived sooner, roughly nine months after the peak rather than a year or more as in previous cycles. Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, said the market drivers have shifted from retail traders and leverage to institutional capital through ETFs, asset management giants, family offices, and corporations. The sell-off on October 10 last year triggered more than $19 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives markets and unwound most of the leverage. Bitcoin's annualized volatility now stands at around 40%, well below its long-term historical level that once exceeded 80%, while the annualized implied volatility index, DVOL, is pinned at about 35. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, warned that implied volatility is near its lowest percentile on record and that the one-year option skew remains neutral to bearish, noting that the depth of the next drawdown will be decided by 30-year U.S. Treasury yields, which recently climbed to a high of 5.7%, a level last seen in April 2002, and are up more than 80 basis points this year.
HashKey Holdings Ltd
Bitcoin