Kasikornbank expects baht to trade at 33.30-33.80 next week, eyes US CPI and Middle East

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Kasikornbank expects the baht to move within a range of 33.30 to 33.80 baht per dollar next week, from October 12 to 16, 2026. Key factors to watch include the conflict situation in the Middle East, the direction of oil prices, gold prices and global bond yields, as well as the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report. The market is also watching important overseas economic data, including September consumer price and producer price indices from the United States and China, Japan's September producer price index, the eurozone's September consumer price index, US September retail sales, and the US central bank's Beige Book report on economic conditions. As for the baht's movement from October 5 to 9, 2026, the currency traded in a narrow range before gradually recovering and strengthening late in the week, after earlier weakening to 33.75 baht per dollar, its weakest level in more than two months, or since July 27, 2026. Early to mid-week, the baht came under pressure from rising global oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East, while the US dollar drew support from rising US Treasury yields, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields climbing to their highest levels in more than 24 years. Minutes from the US central bank's meeting reflected concern over inflationary pressures and supported the view that although the Fed may hold interest rates steady at this month's monetary policy meeting, there is still a chance of further rate increases before the end of the year. However, the baht strengthened again late in the week after global oil prices and US bond yields declined, as concerns over the Middle East conflict eased somewhat following President Donald Trump's statement that, after discussions with Iran, the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3. That helped reduce worries over geopolitical risk and pressured oil prices lower.

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％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Fed minutes show inflation concern and possible further rate hikes before year-end, but no decision; rate path uncertain.

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