Global Power Synergy PCL

Krungsri Securities said in a research note that power plant stocks GPSC, GULF and BGRIM have regained investor attention on rising electricity demand from data centers, artificial intelligence and the chip industry, setting 2027 target prices of 61 baht, 77 baht and 23 baht respectively and recommending a buy on all three. GPSC, or Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, has drawn interest from the draft national power development plan, or PDP2026, which may allow existing power plants to extend their power purchase agreements by another seven years. GULF, or Gulf Development Public Company Limited, stands to benefit from direct power purchase agreements, or Direct PPAs, from data center, AI and chip businesses, with estimated power demand of around 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts. That figure reflects an assessment of the market opportunity, not the total capacity for which GULF has already secured contracts. BGRIM, or B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited, has raised its power generation target for the data center business to 500 megawatts by 2030 from 300 megawatts previously. Krungsri expects BGRIM's normalized profit to grow 22% in 2027 and 17% in 2028, helped by lower natural gas costs amid an oversupply of LNG and the gradual commercial start-up of new projects, namely the Nakwol 1 wind power plant in South Korea and a data center project in Thailand. Investors, however, still need to watch for clarity on energy policy and related regulations, as well as fuel cost trends and the investment burden of each company.

Power plant stocks rose prominently this morning, with GPSC jumping 4.62%, up 2.25 baht to 51.00 baht, on trading value of 578.88 million baht, buoyed by progress on revising data center criteria, as the Data Center board gradually finalizes the approval and regulatory framework for new data center investment within a one-month timeframe, with a conclusion expected no later than October 15. Meanwhile, agencies that must amend related laws are scheduled to present proposals to the Cabinet within October 2026, a positive sentiment for the power plant sector, especially companies with strong capital bases such as GULF and GPSC. Short-term support also comes from the baht strengthening to 33.55 baht per dollar from 33.73 baht per dollar yesterday, and short-term US government bond yields falling 5 bps to 5.227%. Krungsri Securities recommends focusing on GULF, GPSC and BGRIM with 2027 target prices of 77.00 baht, 61.00 baht and 23.00 baht respectively. Asia Plus Securities noted that GPSC targets new generating capacity of about 5,000 MW from the power plant procurement round under Thailand's PDP2026 plan, and plans to list its AEPL project in India on the Indian stock market in 2028, while seeking M&A in Laos, targeting new projects that yield more than 8-10% returns, and plans initial data center investment of about 50-100MW in both Thailand and India.

GPSC shares climbed 3.59% to 50.50 baht on trading value of 268.20 million baht, driven by speculation ahead of clarity on the new Power Development Plan, PDP2026, and on data centre business criteria expected to be submitted to the Cabinet and to take effect by October 2026. KGI Securities (Thailand) said in a research note that it holds a positive view on GPSC and assigns a base target price of 60 baht, seeing clarity on both issues as a positive factor for power plant stocks, including GPSC. An additional supporting factor is the planned listing of GPSC's renewable power business in India, Avaada, on the Indian stock exchange, expected to take place during 2027-2028, which could help unlock investment value and create further value-creation opportunities for GPSC down the road.

Yuanta Securities has issued an analysis recommending a buy on GPSC shares with a target price of 66.50 baht, following a dinner talk with Cherdchai Boonchuchuay, the company's new Chief Executive Officer. He was previously Senior Executive Vice President of the Natural Gas Business Unit at PTT Public Company Limited and has served as chairman of several companies within the PTT group. Management is maintaining the goal of securing new PPAs from the PDP plan totalling 5.1 to 5.2 gigawatts, in line with the previous CEO's plan, but views this as not overly difficult and is in the process of setting a clearer new target plan after reporting third-quarter 2026 results, which is expected to be significantly higher than the original plan. The brokerage sees GPSC as having potential for at least 10,000 megawatts of further investment. In the data center business, the company plans to invest as a minority shareholder, roughly 500 to 700 megawatts under the original plan, but expects no less than 300 megawatts at a shareholding proportion of about 30 percent. Direct PPAs are seen as the main growth driver after the PDP plan, because actual demand is far higher than the government's pilot plan of 2,000 megawatts. The listing of Avaada is expected to be completed by late 2027, which will unlock value and increase profits for GPSC. The company may reduce its shareholding if it obtains a satisfactory IPO price, but not below 30 percent from the current 39 percent, and the added value from Avaada could lift GPSC's target price by as much as about 20 baht. As for the ERU project with TOP, a conclusion will be reached this month, with a high chance it will not proceed, in which case an investment of 96 million US dollars would be returned, along with interest of roughly 700 million to 1 billion baht.

Analysts at Bualuang Securities stated that the PDP2026 plan is likely to win approval from the National Energy Policy Council, or NEPC, by October 2026 without needing to go through the Cabinet, and the first auction round is expected in mid-2027. The plan follows the Case 4 approach, a mix of renewable energy and CCS, and still keeps natural gas in the system. Investment of about 500 billion baht will be needed for grid stability during 2029-2050. Meanwhile, the 2027-2050 work plan will be developed on the basis of Smart Meter, digital power stations, VPP and DR, which are key factors determining other aspects of PDP2026. Direct PPA demand already exceeds 2,000MW, and electricity demand from Data Centers stands at around 7-8GW, but buyers will have to bear the Wheeling charge, grid system costs, and imported LNG costs of about 25 US dollars per MMBtu. The research team maintains an overweight stance on Thai listed power plant stocks relative to the market, naming GULF and GUNKUL as top picks. Investment in the power grid, EPC and equipment will come first, pushing GUNKUL to the front of the investment cycle through its EPC, transmission system and equipment distribution businesses, supported by the lowest base Net gearing in the sensitivity analysis. GULF, meanwhile, still has the highest valuation upside, around 10.0-12.1% of net profit in 2028, under a capacity addition cap of 5,000-6,000MW, and has exposure to investment under Case 4 covering Solar, Wind, BESS and the flexibility of natural gas power plants. The extension of power plant operating life will support the cash flow of GPSC, RATCH and EGCO, while the current upside from BGRIM's Direct PPA depends on the Wheeling charge. Key drivers include NEPC approval in October, the announcement of the Wheeling charge and TPA rules, the form of grid-level BESS procurement, and the first auction round in mid-2027.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) said the government is drafting the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan for 2028-2032, which will take effect from October 2027, aiming to restructure the Thai economy and reduce constraints that hinder growth, in order to push economic expansion above 3% per year and set a goal for Thailand to rank among the world's top 20 in competitiveness by 2029. The plan is driven through five key areas, covering raising production efficiency and attracting new industries, reforming public administration toward OECD standards, upgrading human capital to support an aging society, turning natural resources and the environment into development capital, and investing in technology and innovation. A key shift from the 13th plan is the move away from designating target industries toward addressing structural constraints, through five pillars: Transform, Reform, Upgrade, Sustain, and Transfer. Yuanta's research team sees industries with a chance to benefit, including AI and data centers, electrical infrastructure, smart grid and smart meter, automated production systems, proactive water management, and digital infrastructure. The five stock groups expected to benefit are power plants, commercial banks, telecommunications, electronics, and construction contractors and building materials. Stocks that stand to gain include GULF, GUNKUL, GPSC, SSP, SCB, KTB, ADVANC, TRUE, SMT, and EPG.

Dao Securities (Thailand) said the PDP2026 draft is likely to open the way for existing power plants to extend their power purchase agreements, or PPAs, by another 7 years, to bridge the transition period between the gradual expiry of existing plants and the entry of new capacity and renewable energy. There are concerns that new power plants may not be built and connected to the grid in time to meet rising electricity demand, particularly from data centers. Meanwhile, the Energy Policy and Planning Office said it will not extend PPAs for every plant, but will consider only projects essential to system stability, such as power plants in the EEC area. GPSC stands to benefit from the 713MW Glow IPP, while BGRIM has proposed extending PPAs for a total of 22 IPP-SPP projects with combined capacity of about 3,000MW. BANPU has the 1,434MW BLCP plant, whose agreements will gradually expire in 2032, while RATCH may benefit from gas-fired IPP plants that meet the criteria. Dao's research team has a positive view on the power plant sector, as PPA extensions will let operators keep using existing plants and infrastructure without large investments in new projects, while reducing risks from PPA expiries and enhancing the value of existing assets over the long term. The research team sees upside for GPSC and BGRIM from multiple projects that may win extensions, and therefore maintains buy ratings, with a target price of 60.00 baht for GPSC and 25.00 baht for BGRIM.

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP growth this year to 2% from 1.3%. TTBB Wealth Securities said the upgrade was driven by exports of AI-related goods and investment in data centers, which helped offset the impact of higher energy prices. For 2027 and 2028, Thailand's economy is expected to expand by 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Risks to watch include conflict in the Middle East, higher US import tariffs, a weak tourism sector, the effects of a severe El Niño that could hit farmers' incomes, and household debt as high as 87%. Although the upward revision to the GDP forecast is a positive factor, growth remains concentrated in only a few industries, so the research team is using a selective strategy, focusing on export groups with strong growth and groups that benefit from data center investment, namely DELTA, KCE, HANA, STECON, GULF, GUNKUL, BGRIM and GPSC.

Brokers are bullish on power plant stocks after the new Power Development Plan, or PDP, prepared to be submitted to the National Energy Policy Council, or NEPC, for approval within December 2026, opening the way for the private sector to play a key role in expanding renewable energy generation capacity through the Direct PPA framework and capacity allocation by the Energy Regulatory Commission. Meanwhile, the role of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, or EGAT, will focus on strengthening the stability and reliability of the power system, with planned CCGT and BESS capacity of up to 50% possibly allocated to EGAT, which has a net interest-bearing debt to equity ratio of 0.22 times and a Net IBD/EBITDA of 1.0 times in the second quarter of 2026. Maybank Securities Thailand said it held a special online meeting with Ms. Nanthida Ratchatawechakul, Director of the Electricity Policy Division at the Energy Policy and Planning Office, or EPPO, on 6 October 2026, with 47 participants from domestic and foreign institutional investors, who held a slightly positive view on the power plant sector and expect regulations including the electricity grid tariff framework to be officially announced within the next one to two months, before the PDP takes effect. Dao Securities Thailand said the draft PDP 2026 is likely to allow existing power plants to extend their power purchase agreements by another seven years, considering only projects necessary for system stability, such as power plants in the Eastern Economic Corridor, where GPSC stands to benefit from the 713 MW Glow IPP. BGRIM has proposed extending 22 IPP-SPP power plants with a combined capacity of about 3,000 MW. BANPU has the 1,434 MW BLCP plant, which will gradually expire in 2032, and RATCH stands to benefit from gas-fired IPP plants that meet the criteria. It maintained a buy recommendation on GPSC with a target price of 60.00 baht and on BGRIM with a target price of 25.00 baht, based on DCF.

Several brokers expect the Thai stock market to trade in positive territory today. Finansia Syrus Securities sees the SET Index in a range of 1,565-1,583 points, helped by US Nonfarm Payrolls for September 2026, which rose by 29,000, below economists' forecast of 84,000 and below the prior 12-month average of 45,000, while the unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, higher than expected. As a result, the market has cut the probability of an October rate hike to just 22%. CGS International (Thailand) sees a range of 1,560-1,585 points, and DAOL sees a range of 1,545-1,552 up to 1,600 points. All three brokers are also watching Thailand's September inflation figures, with the market expecting headline inflation of 3.1% year-on-year and core inflation of 1.56% year-on-year, as well as the US ISM services index for September, expected to rise to 55.7, and the Fed meeting minutes due Wednesday night. The stock they all recommend is DELTA, with Finansia setting a 2027 target price of 290 baht and expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to accelerate to 8.3 billion baht and fourth-quarter 2026 profit momentum to reach 10 billion baht, lifting full-year 2026 profit to 32 billion baht. DAOL recommends bank stocks KTB, KBANK and KKP, along with data center and power plant theme stocks GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. It also noted that foreign investors were net sellers of Thai stocks to the tune of 850.49 million baht on October 2, 2026, and that the baht closed at 33.55 baht per dollar.

Daol Securities holds a positive view on GPSC after its group conference call, maintaining a Buy rating and a target price of 60.00 baht based on DCF at a WACC of 6.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%. The company expects profit in the second half of 2026E to continue recovering on an EBITDA uplift and a smaller EP loss, along with still-strong profit contributions from XPCL, HHPC and NAMLIK1 on high water volumes. The SPP business continues to grow on industrial user demand that hit a four-year high, with power and steam demand in 2026E expected to grow 4% and 7% year on year respectively, plus a new pipeline from petrochemicals of 40 to 50 megawatts and data centers of up to 750 megawatts. Gas-linked exposure currently stands at 63%, with a target of 70% by 2030E. For 2027E, the company expects Pool Gas to fall to around 330 baht per MMBTU from an average of 380 baht per MMBTU expected in 2026E, supporting a margin recovery, and targets an EBITDA uplift of more than 900 million baht, matching its 2026E goal. PDP26 and data centers are long-term growth drivers, with a target of joining new capacity bidding of no less than 25% and a data center goal in India of 200 to 300 megawatts. The broker keeps its normal profit forecasts for 2026E and 2027E at 6.9 billion baht and 7.1 billion baht, down 4% and up 3% year on year respectively, and expects normal profit in the third quarter of 2026E to still grow both year on year and quarter on quarter on improved efficiency at GHECO-1, while new projects will begin to be reflected in forecasts from 2028E onward.

GPSC appears to be entering a period of earnings recovery, posting a net profit of 1.82 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 6% QoQ but down 10% YoY. The main drivers were GHECO-One returning to operation after a planned outage, improved availability at Glow IPP, higher power sales volumes at HHPC, and a recovery in demand from industrial customers. SPP margins, however, remained under pressure as gas costs rose faster than the Ft tariff. First-half 2026 results overall reflected better operating efficiency, with EBITDA margin rising to 25% and net profit up 12% YoY to 3.54 billion baht. The second half of 2026 is expected to continue growing on the high season for hydropower plants in Laos and the peak season for the CFXD wind power plant in Taiwan in the fourth quarter of 2026. The EBITDA Uplift Program has already delivered 571 million baht of benefits in the first half of 2026 and targets around 1 billion baht for the full year 2026. The company aims to expand equity capacity from 7.4 GW to 13.7 GW by 2030, while raising the share of renewables and reducing SPP volatility by increasing gas-linked contracts to more than 70%. It targets winning more than 25% of the capacity up for auction under PDP2026, covering renewable, ESS and conventional power, alongside opportunities from direct PPAs, under which it aims to supply around 2 GW of renewable power to corporate customers by 2030. It currently has demand from data centers under discussion and study amounting to as much as 750 MW, and is studying sites with four partners totalling more than 1,000 MW.

The Investment Analysts Association, or IAA, estimates that the SET Index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will move within a range of 1,537 to 1,683 points and is expected to close the year 2026 at 1,680 points. Sombut Naravuttichai, secretary-general of the association, said the survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 companies has not yet incorporated the impact of the flood situation, and puts the SET Index target for the end of 2027 at 1,727 points. It also forecasts average market EPS of 103.38 baht for 2026 and 104.29 baht for 2027, representing average EPS growth of 16.41% in 2026. Five stocks are recommended by four or more research houses in agreement: BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF and CRC. The association recommends increasing weighting in tourism, healthcare, banking, power plants, utilities, commerce and electronics, while most analysts advise avoiding energy and petrochemical stocks, airlines and property. Wichit Arayapisit, senior director of the securities analysis department at Kasikorn Securities, said the firm has raised its SET Index target for the end of 2027 to 1,680 points from 1,620 points, and estimates EPS this year at 110 baht per share, while next year it is expected to fall about 5% to 105 baht per share. It recommends a defensive strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, favouring electronics such as DELTA, KCE and HANA, power plants such as GULF and GPSC, banks such as KTB and KKP, and hotels and tourism such as CENTEL and AWC.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the Election Commission's use of barcodes and QR codes on constituency MP ballots on 8 February 2026 does not violate the constitution, after the Ombudsman filed a petition arguing that the codes could be traced back to individual voters and would breach the principle of secret voting. The court found that in practice tracing is extremely difficult and that adequate safeguards are in place. That election therefore remains valid and does not need to be rerun, and the court merely recommended considering alternative security measures for future elections. The outcome removes the most severe scenario the capital markets had feared, namely a nationwide annulment of the election leading to a political and policy vacuum. With the ruling of no wrongdoing, it is expected to be positive for overall market sentiment and for foreign investor confidence thanks to reduced political risk, especially for large-cap stocks with high foreign holdings and sectors that depend on continuity of government policy, such as construction contractors, power, industrial estates and banks, since the government can continue administering the country as normal. The investment themes that benefit most include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, power producers GULF, GPSC, BGRIM and GUNKUL, contractors STECON, CK, PYLON and INSET, banks KBANK, KTB and KKP, and component makers DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, in overall trading yesterday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,594.30 points, down 8.07 points, while Thai Airways, or THAI, closed at 6.05 baht, down 0.10 baht or 1.36%, amid a backlog of more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage. Thai Airways management explained that the main cause was a shortage of manpower, especially baggage handling teams and staff holding ground operation licences who were affected by flooding and unable to travel to work. In addition, Bangkok is Thai Airways' main aviation hub, so when a large number of employees are affected at the same time, the operating system comes under heavy pressure. The issue arose while Thai Airways is pressing ahead with its rehabilitation plan and its operating results have begun returning to profit. What the market and investors must therefore monitor from here on is not just the numbers in the financial statements, but also the efficiency of the operating system and the ability to cope with a crisis.

Global Power Synergy, or GPSC, has announced an expansion of its cooperation with South Korea's Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, or KHNP, to exchange technical information and develop personnel capabilities for managing nuclear power plants, supporting investment in an SMR portfolio targeting a total of 9,000 megawatts by 2593 under the national Power Development Plan, or PDP 2026, which supports increasing clean energy use to 50,000 megawatts or more. The first phase of the plan will develop 300 megawatts of capacity in 2580, with the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, or EGAT, leading the pilot project. In the next phase, the government will consider permitting construction sites. KHNP is a company in the Korea Electric Power Corporation, or KEPCO, group, which holds 100% of its shares, and has expertise in engineering, procurement and construction, as well as full-service maintenance. KEPCO accounts for about 30% of total electricity generation in South Korea, equivalent to total generating capacity of approximately 31,000 megawatts. Previously, GPSC joined with Seaborg Technologies ApS, an SMR technology developer from Denmark, to study the feasibility of designing small modular units that are highly safe and emit no carbon dioxide, taking about four years between 2567 and 2570 and using a Technology Diversification approach that does not limit the study to any single technology or country, in order to assess technologies suited to Thailand's context and manage risks related to technology, regulation, cost and geopolitics.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited holds a positive view on the power plant sector after two power plant merger and acquisition deals were announced. In the first deal, GULF acquired a 50% stake in GUNKUL's renewable energy projects totaling 337 MWe for an investment of 467 million baht, excluding additional CAPEX. The portfolio comprises 88 MWe of solar, 17 MWe of solar with batteries, and 232 MWe of wind power, with commercial operation scheduled to phase in during 2027 to 2030. Krungsri expects the deal to generate incremental profit for GULF of approximately 450 to 500 million baht per year after all projects reach commercial operation in 2030, representing an upside of about 0.33 baht per share to the target price. On the GUNKUL side, profit after 2030 is expected to decline by approximately 100 million baht and to affect the target price by about 0.10 baht per share, but over the long term it will enhance debt capacity and open financial room for new investments under PDP26. For the second deal, EGCO invested 49% in the 166 MWe Pinnacle IV renewable energy project from APEX, with the transaction completed on 25 September 2026. The investment is estimated at approximately 4.3 billion baht, and full quarterly recognition of the profit share will begin from the fourth quarter of 2026 onward. Krungsri expects Pinnacle IV to generate incremental profit for EGCO of approximately 250 to 300 million baht per year and to add about 5 baht per share to the base valuation. Krungsri maintains a bullish view on the power plant sector, selecting GULF with a Buy rating and a 2027 target price of 77 baht, and GPSC with a Buy rating and a 2027 target price of 61 baht, as its top picks, and notes that current target prices do not yet reflect the upside from the latest renewable energy M&A deals or the opportunities from the PDP26 plan.

Bualuang Securities stated that the Thai stock market has once again cleared the domestic political hurdle after the court ruled that the lawsuit over barcodes and QR codes on election ballots did not violate the constitution. It views that policies pursued over the past nine months can continue, and that the government's stable footing is a positive for the outlook of Thai equities going forward. It also noted that the market is beginning to see stocks rotate out of the banking group, in line with its recommendation to take profits for a trading round, and is starting to gradually take profits in the commodities group to rotate into the next group such as power producers. As for concerns over US bond yields approaching a peak, it assesses this as consistent with the statistical view, with the implication that a correction tends to follow after hitting a high for the month. It therefore maintains its recommendation to begin accumulating stocks that move inversely to bond yields, and has added power producers BGRIM and GPSC to the portfolio. Meanwhile, the average Dubai price last week fell 11.84 US dollars per barrel week-on-week to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, and Singapore refining margins recovered 3.17 US dollars per barrel week-on-week but remained negative at -1.44 US dollars per barrel. The highlight this week is the sharp recovery in petrochemical spreads across all products, with Ethylene up 34 US dollars per tonne to 278 US dollars per tonne, Propylene up 19 to 283 US dollars per tonne, HDPE up 94 to 423 US dollars per tonne, and PP up 164 to 523 US dollars per tonne, which outperformed the energy group this week. The NEX coal price rose 1% week-on-week to 143.92 US dollars per tonne, while the BDI gained 2% week-on-week to 3,432 points and Supramax rose 2% to 1,779 points. The World Container Index fell 1% week-on-week to 4,468 points. It also recommends switching from refinery stocks into petrochemicals, choosing IVL and PTTGC, while maintaining an equal weight in the energy group versus the market, an overweight in the petrochemical group, and an underweight in the shipping group.

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that it is maintaining its Neutral investment weighting on energy and petrochemical stocks, noting that the five business groups, namely upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power plants, and oil retail, each have different drivers. It highlighted eight top picks. The upstream group, which includes PTTEP and PTT, faces short-term pressure from lower oil prices, with Dubai crude falling 11.84 US dollars to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, though still well above the 2025 average of about 70 US dollars per barrel. The top pick in this group is PTTEP. The refining group, which includes BCP, IRPC, PTTGC, SPRC, and TOP, is supported by a recovery in Singapore refining margins of 3.17 US dollars to minus 1.44 US dollars per barrel. The top picks are BCP and SPRC. The petrochemical group, which includes IRPC, IVL, PTTGC, SCC, and TOP, benefits from a broad increase in price spreads after naphtha prices fell 33 US dollars per ton. The top picks are PTTGC and SCC. The power plant group, which includes BGRIM, GPSC, and GULF, has improved in the short term on weaker JKM gas prices, down 1.80 US dollars to about 26 US dollars per million British thermal units. The top picks are GULF and GPSC. The oil retail group, which includes OR and PTG, benefits from a 0.71 baht increase in diesel marketing margins to 2.00 baht per liter after pump retail prices were raised on September 24, 2026. The top pick is PTG.

Piriyapol Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, said the firm maintains a positive view on the Thai stock market, assessing that the SET still has an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could move close to its best-case index target of 1,780 points before shifting into a more range-bound movement. Under the base case, the SET is estimated at 1,710 points at the end of 2027, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times. Three key drivers are the global technology trend, the upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital inflows. Capital expenditure plans by major cloud service providers are expected to grow 93% in 2026 and another 41% in 2027, while Thailand's electronics exports are expected to grow 55% in 2026 and 40% in 2027. For the fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, a Barbell Strategy is recommended, focusing on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC, alongside the power group GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL, before gradually shifting to sector rotation and stock selection in the first half of 2027 and increasing the weighting of dividend stocks as the core of the portfolio in the second half of 2027.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is starting to gain supportive themes after Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness from Negative to Stable, while affirming the sovereign rating at BBB+. As a result, Fitch Ratings, Moody's Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings all now hold a Stable outlook on Thailand. Fitch views the improved government stability as reducing political uncertainty, and expects Thailand's economy to expand 2.3% in 2026, close to 2.4% in 2025, supported by investment in AI and data centers as well as consumption stimulus measures. It also expects general government debt to stay below 63% of GDP in fiscal 2028, an improvement from the previous estimate of 65%. On the external front, Fitch sees Thailand's position as still strong, expecting the current account to post a temporary deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2026 before returning to a surplus of 1.5% in 2027. InnovestX sees this as positive for the Thai stock market, particularly in spurring foreign capital to flow back into big-cap stocks, commercial banks such as Bangkok Bank, KTB, and Kasikornbank, and in lowering the financial costs of listed companies, especially the finance group such as Muangthai Capital, Srisawad, and TIDLOR, as well as attracting long-term investment into future industries, including industrial estates such as Amata and WHA, power plants such as Gulf, GPSC, BGRIM, and Gunkul, and electronics components such as Hana and KCE, for a total of 14 top picks. However, it views that although the Fitch news is positive, it may support the market only in the short term, given lingering external negatives including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as volatility from global trade policy. It therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy, waiting to accumulate rather than chasing prices.

The Ministry of Commerce reported Thailand's trade figures for August 2026, with exports expanding 24.3% year-on-year. Although this was below the market expectation of 24.8% year-on-year, it accelerated from 21.6% year-on-year in July 2026. Meanwhile, imports expanded 25.1% year-on-year, below market expectations and below July 2026's 30.0% year-on-year and 36.7% year-on-year respectively. Among export goods that grew well in the agricultural product group were fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit, up 24.0%; rubber, up 23.2%; fresh, chilled and frozen shrimp, up 18.8%; and processed chicken, up 10.5%. In the agro-industrial product group, pet food grew 17.5% and canned and processed seafood grew 4.8%. In the industrial product group, video and audio equipment and parts grew 1,155.7%; telephones, equipment and parts grew 151.2%; electrical transformers and parts grew 55.6%; computers, equipment and parts grew 42.1%; electrical appliances and parts grew 40.9%; integrated circuit boards grew 19.2%; and gems and jewelry, excluding gold, grew 3.2%, returning to growth after contracting the previous month. The research team at Phillip Securities sees this as positive sentiment for export stocks in the categories that grew well, as well as stocks related to those export goods, and views it as a boost for industrial estate and utility stocks. It selected 17 standout stocks: in the agricultural product group, CPF, NER, STA and TEGH; in the agro-industrial product group, AAI, ITC and TU; in the industrial product group, CCET, DELTA, HANA, HTECH and KCE; and in the industrial estate and utility group, AMATA, BGRIM, GPSC, ROJNA and WHA.

The government is preparing to invest in a smart grid system, or intelligent power network, with short-term approval expected for a pilot project budget of approximately 10 billion to 20 billion baht, drawn from the 200 billion baht energy transition allocation under the 400 billion baht emergency loan decree. Concrete progress is expected to begin this year. Naphan Chaisaen, Deputy Managing Director of Research and a fundamental investment analyst covering the capital market at Bualuang Securities, told Than Hoon that the medium-term smart grid roadmap for 2022 to 2031 consists of five pillars. The first is Demand Response, which will replace household electricity meters with millions of smart meters, starting in high-usage areas such as Bangkok, its vicinity, major cities, and industrial estates in Rayong and Chachoengsao. Companies with potential in this area are FORTH, SKY, INSET, ALT, and PCC. Next is RE Forecasting, which involves system integrators such as TKC, SECURE, and SAMART. Then comes Microgrid and Prosumer, with GUNKUL and BGRIM. Next is ESS, or energy storage systems, with EA and GPSC. Finally, EV Integration involves FORTH and EA. Investment in the smart grid can also be accelerated without waiting for full clarity on the new Power Development Plan, and it will serve as key infrastructure to support the massive electricity consumption of data centers in the future without affecting electricity costs or the stability of power supply for the general public.

Bualuang Securities released an analysis stating that the development of Thailand's smart grid is nearing a turning point, moving from a phase focused on long-term roadmaps toward rule-setting, pilot project implementation, and greater private-sector participation. The medium-term smart grid drive plan for 2022-2031 comprises 5 pillars: Demand Response and Energy Management Systems, or DR & EMS, which accounts for roughly 30% of the budget; Renewable Energy Forecasting, or RE Forecasting, about 10%; Microgrid and Prosumer, about 20%; Energy Storage Systems, or ESS, about 25%; and EV Integration, about 15%. The analysis states that stocks that could benefit under the DR & EMS pillar include SKY, PIS, FORTH, PCC and ALT, while the RE Forecasting pillar includes TKC and SAMART. The Microgrid & Prosumer pillar includes BGRIM, the ESS pillar includes EA, GPSC, GULF and EGCO, and the EV Integration pillar includes FORTH and EA. Bualuang Securities takes the view that heavy investment in ESS and Microgrid should not be rushed from the early stage, because committing large amounts of capital to batteries, hardware and EPC work before pricing mechanisms and service markets are clear carries the risk of assets being underutilized. Meanwhile, DR/EMS forecasting and EV Integration require less capital and open up opportunities to generate revenue from platforms, service fees and recurring income.

Krungsri Securities stated that the direction for operating Data Centers in Thailand is progressing continuously, with the draft Digital Infrastructure Services Business Act B.E. ...., the main law establishing the regulatory framework for data center, cloud service, and digital platform businesses. It requires operators to obtain licenses from the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society and to post collateral. Meanwhile, large data centers that use electricity up to the threshold must secure their own electricity and water sources, are prohibited from competing for water from public water sources, must use clean energy according to the proportion set by the state, must be located in urban planning areas permitted for factory operations, must conduct EIA/EHIA, and are required to store personal data of Thai individuals and Thai juristic persons within the country as a primary requirement. On the progress of subordinate legislation, the DC Board approved preliminary criteria requiring data centers using electricity from 0.5 megawatts and above to formally register with the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society, and instructed three subcommittees on infrastructure, urban planning, and environment to expedite the drafting of minimum standards for completion within February 2026. Meanwhile, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and the Department of Public Works and Town and Country Planning are reviewing a new urban planning draft designating zoning for large data centers in industrial zones in purple areas on the outskirts of the city, and acknowledged progress on the TH-DC Dashboard system by BDI in collaboration with the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society to serve as a national central database. The research department assesses this progress as overall positive and views it as positive sentiment for Infra Tech theme stocks, namely industrial estate developers AMATA and WHA, contractors STECON, PYLON, and INSET, power companies GPSC, BGRIM, WHAUP, and GUNKUL, as well as banks KBANK, KTB, and BBL.

Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET Index to trade sideways today after the investment mood came under pressure once again from bond yields, along with rising oil prices. It estimates support at 1,600-1,605 points and resistance at 1,614-1,618 points, and sees energy stocks potentially attracting buying back. Meanwhile, US stocks closed lower after bond yields surged again, while oil prices rebounded strongly after Trump's speech at the UN, in which he gave Iran a choice between negotiating or letting the US wipe it out completely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded without backing down, but stressed that Iran is always ready for diplomatic talks if they are equal and do not use threatening language or force. As for the main strategy, Dao sees the market possibly pulling back but views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate Mega Play Theme stocks such as Data Center and power plants, and still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks also remain attractive, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium-to-long-term tourism recovery theme, it still likes AOT, CENTEL and ERW. The top pick today is PTTEP, supported by the short-term crude oil price outlook after Iran's president said at the UN that Iran will not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions remain in effect. Brent crude closed up 3.9% yesterday at 103.1 US dollars per barrel. Buy, target price 180.00 baht. Also AOT, which will benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects that during China's long holiday from 25 September to 7 October 2026, which covers both the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday, 250,000 Chinese tourists will come to Thailand, up 24% YoY. It also estimates normal profit in 4QFY26E will grow well both YoY and QoQ from the gradual recovery in international passengers and the first full quarter of recognition of the new PSC rate. Buy, target price 72.00 baht. The top picks on technical signals are PTTEP and CCET.

Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, or KHNP, to study the feasibility of developing small modular reactor nuclear power plants, or SMRs. Sirimet Leepagorn, President and Acting Chief Operating Officer of GPSC, signed together with Il-kyoung Choi, Executive Vice President of KHNP, a company in the KEPCO group and South Korea's sole nuclear power plant operator, with more than 31 GW of generating capacity and full-cycle expertise in both EPC and O&M. This collaboration opens the way for GPSC to study SMR technology, the production of clean electricity and steam, as well as approaches to joint investment. Both parties plan to extend into the O&M business for SMRs and to develop personnel and knowledge through a technical working group, laying the groundwork to support the nuclear energy business over the long term. Meanwhile, SAWAD announced an interim dividend of 0.35 baht per share, totaling 581.53 million baht, from its first-half operating results, with an XD date of October 6, 2026, a record date of October 7, and dividend payment on October 21, 2026. Quick Transformation Public Company Limited, or QUICK, is preparing to hold the QUICK IPO Press Conference & Retail Investor Roadshow on September 28, 2026, to offer 32 million IPO shares for listing on the Market for Alternative Investment in the technology sector. And MPJ Logistics Public Company Limited, or MPJ, has opened a heavy container deposit service. Chief Executive Officer Jirasak Manatrakul said this is a strategy to increase the efficiency of using existing assets, supporting the revenue target for 2026 of 1.264 billion baht, a growth of 18%.

Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of the Securities Analysis Department at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, said the Thai stock market is likely to enter a short-term consolidation phase as it awaits clarity on external factors, particularly the situation between the United States and Iran, as well as the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24, 2026, with the market focusing on trade, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, and supply chains. Most recently, Brent crude fell below 100 dollars per barrel amid expectations for US-Iran talks and Saudi Arabia's resumption of oil shipments through the East-West Pipeline, which has eased concerns about global oil supply and is seen as a positive factor for the investment climate. On investment strategy, KSS recommends focusing on individual securities and industry groups with specific positive factors. The first group it favors is hospitals, with Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited, or BDMS, as the top pick; KSS expects its third-quarter 2026 net profit to reach a record high of approximately 4.55 billion baht, with a target price of 25 baht. The power plant group is also attractive given falling oil prices and bond yields, with a recommendation on Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, with a target price of 77 baht, and Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, with a target price of 61 baht.

Global Power Synergy (GPSC) has signed an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for a ground-mounted solar power project, or solar farm, with a total installed capacity of 148 megawatts, between Helios 1 and Helios 2 as project owners and the Getz AKK Joint Venture. The contract is valued at more than 2.5 billion baht and sets completion and commercial operation (COD) within 2028. Worawat Pitayasiri, Chief Executive Officer of GPSC, the power business innovation leader of the PTT Group, along with the boards of directors of Helios 1 and 2 and Peerapon Ampaiwit, Managing Director of Getz Energy, attended the signing ceremony. The award of this EPC work reflects cooperation between companies in the GPSC Group and business partners to concretely expand the renewable energy business and build on Getz's potential to provide full-service EPC for solar power plants, from design and equipment procurement to construction and project delivery, in support of the country's energy transition, increasing the share of clean energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Asia Plus Securities says power plant stocks have regained investor attention on three main drivers. The first is a fresh wave of data center investment, with Prime Minister Anutin scheduled to meet Google executives on September 23, 2026 to discuss digital, technology and AI issues as well as digital infrastructure development. Google plans to invest 1 billion US dollars to develop data centers and cloud in Thailand, reflecting long-term growth in electricity demand from the digital economy. The second driver is the continued decline in crude oil prices, with Dubai and Brent falling about 3% and 8% over the past five trading days to around 115 and 100 dollars per barrel respectively, which could pass through to power plants' gas costs going forward. The third driver is the baht, recently around 33.45 baht per dollar, stronger than around 34.0 baht per dollar in July, supporting companies with high debt burdens and large overseas investment. The research team has a positive view on the power sector. GULF currently has 25 MW of data centers already commercialized, with another 38 MW under development and a further 100 MW expansion planned. BGRIM is building 48 MW in its first phase, expected to gradually come online from the fourth quarter of 2026. Falling oil prices are expected to be a short-term sentiment positive for BGRIM and GPSC, which sell roughly 20 to 35% of electricity revenue to industrial customers, while baht strength helps reduce USD-denominated debt, especially for EGCO, which has roughly 50 to 60% of its loans in USD, versus around 15% for GULF and BGRIM. On investment strategy, the firm recommends a selective buy, picking GULF with a fair value of 80 billion baht as a large-cap that benefits from fund inflows and the data center theme, while BGRIM, with a fair value of 22 billion baht, benefits from margin recovery amid falling oil prices, and GPSC, with a fair value of 56 billion baht, can still be traded on sector sentiment.

Shares of B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited, or BGRIM, rose 3.14% to 19.70 baht, up 0.60 baht, touching an intraday high of 20.00 baht on turnover of 630.73 million baht. Asia Plus Securities expects margins to recover in the third quarter of 2026 as oil prices decline, and sees the power sector regaining investor interest on three main drivers: a fresh wave of data center investment, crude oil prices that continue to fall and could feed through to power plants' gas costs, and the baht's appreciation to around 33.45 baht per dollar from roughly 34.0 baht per dollar in July. The research team set a target price of 22 baht for BGRIM, 80 baht for GULF and 56 baht for GPSC, noting that GULF currently has 25 megawatts of data center capacity already commercially operational, another 38 megawatts under development and plans to add a further 100 megawatts in the next phase. BGRIM, meanwhile, is building 48 megawatts in its Phase and expects gradual commercial operation starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. The baht's strength also reduces the value of US dollar debt, particularly at EGCO, where dollar-denominated loans make up roughly 50 to 60% of borrowings, while GULF and BGRIM are at around 15%.

DBS Vickers Securities Thailand estimates that the SET index today has a chance to hold above the 1,600-point level, driven by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices may pressure energy stocks into selling. It sees support at 1,584-1,592 points and resistance at 1,604-1,610 points. It also noted that investors are still watching the Trump-Xi meeting. In the U.S. market, stocks rose sharply led by AI names such as Meta, and WTI crude fell below 100 U.S. dollars, pushing bond yields to close below 5%, which is expected to support buying in beneficiary groups such as data centers and power plants. It continues to favor GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banks remain resilient given lingering uncertainty, so it still favors KTB, KBANK and KKP. Over the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks such as AOT, CENTEL and ERW. For today's top pick, it recommends CPALL, estimating 2026E profit at 33 billion baht, up 18% year on year, supported by 700 new branch openings and product mix, with a target price of 63.00 baht. Its technical picks are BGRIM and STECON.

Dao Securities expects the Thai stock market on September 22, 2026, to see the SET Index attempt to hold above 1,600 points, helped by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices could pressure energy shares with selling. The investment mood has improved again, and investors are watching the meeting between Trump and Xi. In the US market, stocks rose sharply, especially AI-related names led by META, and with WTI oil falling below 100 dollars per barrel, the US bond yield closed below 5%, supporting the investment climate. Fitch Ratings announced on September 18 that it had revised Thailand's credit outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, a supportive factor for the market. The SET opened the morning up more than 9 to 13 points, testing 1,600 points, with buying concentrated mainly in banking and financial stocks. Dao Securities' main strategy states that a US bond yield closing below 5% will draw buying into stocks that benefit from lower bond yields under the Mega Play theme, such as data centers and power plants, and it still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks should be resilient amid lingering uncertainty, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks, namely AOT, CENTEL and ERW.

Two brokers hold a positive view on power-plant stocks after the Energy Minister prepares to expand the buyback quota for electricity from public solar rooftops to 10,000 MW from 500 MW previously, under a feed-in tariff of 2.2 baht per unit, along with an extension of the power purchase agreement buyback term to 20 years from 10 years. Krungsri Securities said it sees positive sentiment, especially for GUNKUL, even though the solar rooftop business accounts for only about 6-7% of total revenue, but it still gets a boost from the policy of installing solar rooftops with tax deductions of up to 200,000 baht per household and installation subsidies of 30,000 baht per household from the 400-billion-baht loan emergency decree. It also recommends buying GULF with a 2027 target price of 77 baht and GPSC with a 2027 target price of 61 baht as top picks on the data center investment theme. Asia Plus Securities is bullish on the renewable energy group, seeing the expansion of the framework to 10,000 MW as reflecting a significant upgrade of the public solar market, and the extension of the purchase term from 10 years to 20 years as increasing the attractiveness and incentive for household investment. This is therefore a positive factor for solar EPC operators and related equipment distributors such as GUNKUL, SOLAR, SPCG and SSP. Its research team picks GUNKUL as top pick with a target price of 6.4 baht, and sees the medium- to long-term investment theme extending from the solar group to smart grid and battery energy storage systems, where BGRIM and GPSC have strengths in smart grid and BESS, while GULF has both solar rooftop and solar-plus-BESS businesses.

The National Energy Policy Council, or NEPC, approved expanding the framework for promoting electricity generation from public solar to 10,000 megawatts, up from the previous 5,000 megawatts, covering the period 2026–2028. The total already includes 500 megawatts of existing purchase projects. The council set the buyback rate under the Net Billing scheme at 2.20 baht per unit, capped at no more than 5 kilowatts per meter, and extended the purchase period to 20 years from 10 years, covering rooftop installations, ground-mounted systems, and floating solar. The NEPC also tasked agencies with preparing supporting plans within one month, covering real-time electricity generation forecasting, control of transmission and distribution systems, installation of smart meters and smart grids, and battery energy storage systems, or BESS, to accommodate distributed generation. The research team at Asia Plus Securities views this as positive for the renewable energy group, noting that the expansion from 5,000 megawatts to 10,000 megawatts reflects a significant upgrade of the public solar market, and that extending power purchases from 10 years to 20 years will improve the returns and investment incentives for households. This is therefore a positive factor for contractors installing rooftop solar power systems, or Solar EPC, and for distributors of related equipment such as GUNKUL, SOLAR, SPCG, and SSP. At the same time, the increase in distributed generation will give energy management systems, smart grids, and battery energy storage systems a key role in the next phase, in line with the direction of the PDP2026 plan. BGRIM and GPSC have strengths in smart grids, energy management systems, and BESS, while GULF has related businesses in both Solar Rooftop and Solar plus BESS. In the short term, this is expected to be positive sentiment for stocks in the solar business chain, and the research team has chosen GUNKUL as its Top Pick on the strength of its Solar EPC business and comprehensive equipment distribution.

The equity and derivatives market strategist at InnovestX Research, InnovestX Securities, said efforts to push Thailand as a regional data center hub are taking clearer shape after the first meeting of the Data Center Business Policy Committee resolved to accelerate integration of data and legal provisions into a single dashboard, in order to set a clear industrial strategic framework within one month. The criteria define data centers using more than 2 MW of electricity as industrial businesses, set resource utilization fees to reflect true direct and indirect costs, and impose strict energy conditions to support Green Data Centers, including a separate electricity tariff category for the group, a mandatory clean energy share of no less than 60% to meet Net Zero goals, and tighter standards for backup power systems. Four subcommittees will be set up covering the economy, infrastructure, land and buildings, and the environment to draw up technical standards, and decisive measures are being prepared to suspend water and electricity allocation for projects not yet under construction if they fail the criteria. InnovestX assesses that these clearer policies will create significant positive ripple effects for two main industries. The first is clean energy, where the 60% minimum clean energy requirement will turn clean power from an option into a necessity, sharply driving real demand. The second is industrial estates, where classifying data centers as industrial businesses will draw foreign direct investment, or FDI, into leading estates equipped with smart grid networks and environmental management, leaving estates reliant on fossil fuels far behind. The investment strategy therefore recommends Selective Buy, focusing on accumulating leaders in these two main industries. For industrial estates, it favors companies with stable smart grid networks sufficient for Tier 3-4 data centers, joint ventures with multinational technology firms, and their own water recycling management systems, namely AMATA and WHA. For clean energy, it favors companies making progress on direct power purchase agreements, or Direct PPAs, with global hyperscalers, with high ESG scores and green certificates, and investing in battery energy storage systems, or BESS, to maintain the stability of electricity supplied to data centers, namely GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, as well as GUNKUL, a contractor for high-voltage transmission line systems.