InnovestX Says Fitch's Upgrade of Thailand to Stable Boosts Fund Flows, Highlights 14 Top Picks

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Summary · why it matters

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is starting to gain supportive themes after Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness from Negative to Stable, while affirming the sovereign rating at BBB+. As a result, Fitch Ratings, Moody's Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings all now hold a Stable outlook on Thailand. Fitch views the improved government stability as reducing political uncertainty, and expects Thailand's economy to expand 2.3% in 2026, close to 2.4% in 2025, supported by investment in AI and data centers as well as consumption stimulus measures. It also expects general government debt to stay below 63% of GDP in fiscal 2028, an improvement from the previous estimate of 65%. On the external front, Fitch sees Thailand's position as still strong, expecting the current account to post a temporary deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2026 before returning to a surplus of 1.5% in 2027. InnovestX sees this as positive for the Thai stock market, particularly in spurring foreign capital to flow back into big-cap stocks, commercial banks such as Bangkok Bank, KTB, and Kasikornbank, and in lowering the financial costs of listed companies, especially the finance group such as Muangthai Capital, Srisawad, and TIDLOR, as well as attracting long-term investment into future industries, including industrial estates such as Amata and WHA, power plants such as Gulf, GPSC, BGRIM, and Gunkul, and electronics components such as Hana and KCE, for a total of 14 top picks. However, it views that although the Fitch news is positive, it may support the market only in the short term, given lingering external negatives including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as volatility from global trade policy. It therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy, waiting to accumulate rather than chasing prices.

Impact on assets 8

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲
Global Power Synergy PCL
GPSC
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Named among InnovestX's top picks as a power plant benefiting from long-term investment inflows after the Fitch upgrade.

Semiconductors▲
Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Fitch's outlook upgrade to Stable is expected to spur foreign capital flows back into Thai big-cap commercial banks like Bangkok Bank.

Artificial Intelligence▲

Off-coverage companies 1

Fitch Ratingsi
Private± Mixedrelevance