Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited is a commercial bank operating in Thailand and internationally through its subsidiaries. It has three segments: Retail Banking, Business Banking, and Money Management and Investment. The bank offers personal banking products such as deposits, cards, insurance, loans, money transfer, foreign exchange, e-banking, and payment services, as well as SME and international business loans. It also provides corporate banking services including cash management, deposit and card services, online and telebanking, and global markets. Founded in 1966, it is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Why is Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited (KTB.BK) moving?
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KTB stays a top pick as brokers see dividends, digital growth, and budget boost
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Brokers keep KTB as a top pick for high dividends and recovery Krungsri, Finansia Syrus, Kasikorn, and Bualuang all name KTB a top pick, expecting higher-than-expected 2026 dividends and profit recovery. This supports the stock by attracting income investors and signaling confidence in future earnings.
Multiple brokers reaffirm KTB as a top pick, directly supporting the stock price.
Government budget disbursement boosts loan demand for KTB Fiscal 2026 budget disbursement beat target at 95.8%, accelerating public investment. KTB benefits indirectly through increased liquidity and loan demand, especially given its large government customer base, which should support lending growth.
Higher budget disbursement drives loan demand, a key revenue source for KTB.
Digital platforms like Paotang seen adding profit Bualuang estimates KTB's Paotang and Krungthai NEXT digital platforms could add 436 million baht profit by 2028, with fee income growing 10% in 2026. Converting its huge user base into revenue is a long-term growth driver.
Digital monetization is a new growth avenue highlighted by analysts.
Q3 profits seen weak but KTB may recover QoQ Brokers expect Q3 bank profits to fall 9-10% year-on-year on margin pressure, with KTB's profit down 16% YoY. However, ASL sees KTB profit recovering 5% quarter-on-quarter, suggesting the worst may be over.
Earnings are a key driver; while weak YoY, the QoQ recovery offers a positive counterpoint.
Phiphat unveils common rail ticket plan: 17-baht entry fee, 45-baht maximum, starting January 1, 2027
Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn revealed that the government is preparing to move ahead with a common ticketing system for Bangkok and its vicinity's electric rail network, targeting implementation by January 1, 2027. The core features are a 17-baht entry fee and a maximum fare of no more than 45 baht per trip, with no repeat entry fee even when transferring between multiple rail lines. The Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand, or MRTA, will manage the central system, which will also support EMV payment, with Krungthai Bank handling the back-end system and fare calculations between each operator. The priority is the Green Line, which currently uses the Rabbit card, and the Transport Ministry is in discussions on how to connect it to the EMV system in time for January 1, 2027, because the Green Line is the main axis linking to other key rail lines, including the Purple Line, the Blue Line, and routes to be opened in the future. On buses, Bangkok Mass Transit Authority, or BMTA, will receive 1,520 electric buses in 2027 between March and May and another 800 in late December, totaling 2,320 for the year, with a goal of converting all BMTA buses to electric by the end of 2027. The new electric bus fleet will be fully air-conditioned, with space for wheelchair users and ramps, a 50% fare discount for the elderly, a 50% discount for school and university students, and free fares for children under seven. The ministry is also preparing to adjust bus routes to serve as feeders, carrying passengers from communities and main roads to rail stations. For integrating water, road, and rail travel into a single system, Smart Pier aims to complete development of 16 of 29 piers by the fourth quarter of 2027, and any pier that is ready earlier can connect to the common ticket system immediately. Saen Saep Canal boats will also be brought into the system. On safety, the State Railway of Thailand, or SRT, plans to gradually fix railway-road crossings in inner Bangkok, targeting completion within six years and no more than ten years at most. For freight transport, the ministry envisions rail as the main axis in the future, with trucks serving as feeders for distances of no more than 150 kilometers from factories or industrial estates to railway stations, linking the northern, northeastern, central, and southern routes through to Malaysia and Singapore.
Electrification & Mobility › Commercial & Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles ▲Regulation
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive Krungthai Bank will handle the back-end system and fare calculations for the new common rail ticketing system, a concrete new service contract.
7 banks set to report Q3 2026 results; brokers expect profits to plunge 11-15%
Seven commercial banks, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, TTB, KKP and TISCO, are entering the third-quarter 2026 earnings season amid pressure from a falling interest rate cycle. Finansia Syrus Securities, or FSS, estimates the seven banks' combined net profit at 54.98 billion baht, down 0.7% from the previous quarter and down 11.6% from the same period a year earlier. Miss Chitra Amorntham, Deputy Managing Director of the Securities Analysis Department at FSS, said the main pressure comes from the policy rate having been cut three times, or 0.75%, over the past 12 months. Kasikorn Securities, or KS, estimates combined third-quarter net profit at 49.4 billion baht, down 2% from the previous quarter and down 15% from a year earlier. Yuanta Securities estimates it at 54.905 billion baht, down 0.9% from the previous quarter and down 11.7% from a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2026, FSS expects the seven banks to post combined net profit of 167.519 billion baht, down 5.3% from a year earlier, or about 78% of the full-year estimate. KBANK has the highest profit at 40.391 billion baht, up 2.8%, while KKP grew the fastest at 47.6%, with profit of 6.113 billion baht. FSS maintains a market-weight investment rating, picking BBL with a target price of 240 baht and KTB with a target price of 47.30 baht as its top picks. KS maintains a positive view, picking KKP with a target price of 153 baht and KTB with a target price of 48 baht as its top picks. Yuanta Securities noted that the share price correction has pushed the dividend yield of SCB, KKP, KTB and TISCO back above 6% in 2026, with SCB leading the group at 6.9% and a fair value of 160 baht.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Negative BBL is among the seven banks whose Q3 2026 profits are expected to fall 11-15% due to the policy rate being cut three times in the past 12 months.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Negative KBANK is one of the seven banks facing profit pressure from the falling interest rate cycle, though it still has the highest profit at 40.391 billion baht.
KKP.BK · Monetary · Negative KKP is among the seven banks expected to see combined Q3 profits drop 11-15% amid the rate-cut cycle, despite being the fastest grower at 47.6%.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Negative KTB is one of the seven banks whose Q3 2026 profits are forecast to plunge 11-15% due to three policy rate cuts over the past 12 months.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Negative SCB is among the seven banks facing profit declines from the falling interest rate cycle, though its dividend yield has risen above 6%.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Negative TISCO is among the seven banks whose Q3 2026 combined net profit is forecast to fall 11-15% year-on-year due to the policy-rate cuts.
Krungthai and Gulf Launch Digital Bond GULF with 2.80% Interest, Bookings via Paotang on October 19
Krungthai Bank has partnered with Gulf Development to open subscriptions for a 7-year GULF digital bond with a fixed interest rate of 2.80% per year, paying interest every 6 months, through the bond trading wallet on the Paotang application, starting October 19, 2026 at 08:30 until fully subscribed but no later than October 21, 2026 at 15:00. The minimum subscription amount is 1,000 baht, increasing in multiples of 1,000 baht, with a maximum of 50 million baht per subscription. Allocation is on a first-come, first-served basis. The bond is a registered, unsubordinated, unsecured bond with a bondholders' representative. It has been assigned a credit rating of AA- with a stable outlook by Tris Rating Company Limited on August 24, 2026. GULF reported record operating profit in the second quarter of 2026 of 12.332 billion baht, up 74%, with total revenue of 50.294 billion baht, up 24% from the same period last year. Investors can buy and sell the bond in the secondary market through digital channels in real time, 24 hours a day, receiving the bond immediately upon purchase and receiving funds immediately upon sale.
Bualuang scans KTB, Paotang to boost profit by 436 million baht in 2028
Bualuang Securities estimates that Krungthai Bank, or KTB, has a digital customer base far larger than other banks, especially Paotang with more than 40 million users and Krungthai NEXT with around 22 million more. But revenue from these customer bases is still relatively limited. The research team therefore sees the medium-to-long-term upside as converting these user bases into revenue from loans and more sales of financial products. It estimates the incremental profit from Paotang at approximately 93 million baht in 2026, 227 million baht in 2027 and 436 million baht in 2028, or about 0.8% of its 2028 profit forecast. It also expects fee income in 2026 to grow 10% year on year and to grow another 3% in 2027, with the proportion of fee income to total revenue rising from 14% in 2025 to 17% in 2028, which is still far below the industry. The research team expects profit in 2027 to return to 8% year-on-year growth, the highest in the banking group, supported by loans, fee income and an improving cost-to-income ratio. It also expects a dividend yield of around 5.5–6% and maintains a buy recommendation with a target price of 47 baht.
KTB Advises Gradual Buying of Long-Dated US Bonds as Yields Top 5.25%, Citing Attractive Risk-Reward
Mr. Poon Panichpibool, a money and capital market strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krungthai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, recommends that investors gradually buy long-dated US bonds, especially while the 10-year US bond yield is above the 5.25% zone, because the risk-reward of holding them is very attractive and clearly asymmetric. This assessment assumes the bond yield moves up or down by roughly 50 to 100 basis points. The 10-year US bond yield has been fluctuating in a range of 5.22% to 5.35%, tracking volatile crude oil prices amid uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East, before pulling back somewhat after a strong 30-year bond auction, which reflected solid demand for long-dated US bonds. Buy-on-dip flows from market players also helped push yields lower. If investors are concerned about the outlook for long-dated bond yields rising, they may consider gradually investing with each increase of about 25 basis points. In the currency market, the dollar gradually weakened in line with a risk-off mood in US financial markets driven by selling in AI and semiconductor-themed stocks, while market players grew somewhat less worried about the Middle East situation following remarks by President Donald Trump, who has not yet attacked Iran ahead of the midterm elections. The dollar index, DXY, slipped to the 102.1 level from a trading range around 102.0 to 102.5. As for gold, COMEX gold futures for December 2026 delivery rebounded toward the 4,170 dollars per ounce zone amid the risk-off mood in US financial markets over concerns about earnings of AI companies, as well as the pullback in both the dollar and the 10-year US bond yield.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative KTB advises buying long-dated US bonds while the 10-year yield tops 5.25%, implying expectations that the yield will fall (bond prices rise) from current elevated levels.
KTB.BK · · Neutral KTB strategist recommends gradually buying long-dated US bonds; the bank is the source of the advice, not a subject of a company-specific development.
ASL Securities expects Q3/26 earnings for 9 banks to be flat QoQ but down 10% YoY
ASL Securities estimates the combined net profit of nine banks in the third quarter of 2026 at 64.921 billion baht, flat from the previous quarter but down 9.8% from a year earlier, pressured by lower net interest income as net interest margins narrow, alongside still-limited loan growth and slowing non-interest income, particularly investment gains and trading gains. Meanwhile, funding costs are beginning to ease as deposits reprice, and gradually declining credit costs are helping to support results. For the first nine months of 2026, combined net profit is expected to total 196.52 billion baht, down 4% from a year earlier. Mid-sized and smaller banks are likely to show standout growth, with KKP forecast to post net profit of 2.1 billion baht, up 26% YoY, the highest in the group, while CREDIT is expected to report net profit of 1.16 billion baht, up 17% QoQ, the strongest sequential gain in the group. KTB and BBL are expected to see profit recover 5% and 7% QoQ respectively, while KBANK and SCB continue to face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income. For the fourth quarter of 2026, group earnings are expected to slow QoQ on seasonally higher operating expenses and asset-quality risks, particularly the impact of flooding on retail, SME and hire-purchase loans, which may prompt some banks to increase management overlay provisions. On valuation, bank stocks remain attractive, trading at an average 2026 price-to-book value of 1.1 times, with an average dividend yield of 5.5% expected, against an average return on equity of 10.5%. With group net profit forecast to grow 3.8% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, the investment strategy should focus on banks with outstanding earnings growth, strong asset quality and the potential to boost shareholder returns through dividends or capital management, especially banks trading below one times price-to-book value.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB is named among banks continuing to face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income, weighing on Q3/26 earnings.
CREDIT.BK · Capital · Positive CREDIT forecast to post net profit of 1.16 billion baht, up 17% QoQ, the strongest sequential gain in the group.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP forecast to post net profit of 2.1 billion baht, up 26% YoY, the highest growth in the group.
BBL.BK · Capital · Neutral BBL expected to see profit recover 7% QoQ, but group earnings flat QoQ and down ~10% YoY on margin pressure.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Negative KBANK continues to face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income.
KTB.BK · Capital · Neutral KTB expected to see profit recover 5% QoQ, though group earnings are flat QoQ and down YoY.
Yuanta sees Thailand hosting IMF–World Bank meetings as a boost for SET Outperform, names stocks across 4 themes
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) assesses that Thailand's hosting of the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, to be held from 12-18 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, will be a positive factor for the Thai stock market. It marks Thailand's return as host after 35 years, having last hosted in 1991, and more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries are expected. Thailand is presenting the concept "A New Horizon for Thailand: Empowering People, Strengthening Readiness for Change," and will push four main issues: the transition to digital and AI, the role of middle-sized countries in a multipolar world, coping with climate change, and preparing the economy for an aging society. Yuanta's research team cites the case study of Indonesia, which hosted in 2018, finding that the JCI Index rose 2.8% in the one month after the meetings and outperformed MSCI EM, MSCI DM and MSCI ACWI, which delivered negative returns during that period. It therefore sees the SET Index as likely to outperform regional markets. The digital and AI theme is positive for SMT, HANA, CCET, AMATA, WHA, DITTO and SKY, while the middle-sized countries theme, aimed at supporting SMEs, is positive for KBANK, SCB, KTB, SAWAD and MTC. The climate theme is positive for GUNKUL, SSP, GULF, DITTO and TEAMG, and the aging society theme is positive for BDMS, BH, BCH and CHG. It also sees the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers, namely AOT, THAI, BA, ERW, CENTEL, MINT and AWC, with several large concerts choosing to hold events in Thailand during November-December providing continued support.
BDMS.BK · Demand · Positive Named in the aging society theme as a beneficiary of Thailand's IMF-World Bank hosting, which Yuanta sees as positive for the SET.
BH.BK · Demand · Positive Named in the aging society theme as a beneficiary of Thailand's IMF-World Bank hosting, which Yuanta sees as positive for the SET.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Named in the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers around the IMF-World Bank meetings and large concerts.
CHG.BK · Demand · Positive Named in the aging society theme as a beneficiary of Thailand's IMF-World Bank hosting, which Yuanta sees as positive for the SET.
DITTO.BK · Demand · Positive Named in both the digital/AI and climate themes as a beneficiary of Thailand's IMF-World Bank hosting, which Yuanta sees as positive for the SET.
SKY.BK · Demand · Positive Named among stocks benefiting from the digital and AI theme pushed at the IMF–World Bank meetings Thailand will host.
Krungsri sees SET moving sideways, eyes THAI and PTTGC for MSCI inclusion in November, recommends 3 standout stocks
Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of Research in the Investment Strategy Department at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, said on the October 8, 2569 edition of the stock news program "Jad Talad" that the Thai stock market today is likely to move sideways, even as most Asian markets come under pressure from rising US government bond yields, along with concerns over inflation, debt burdens, and geopolitical conflicts. The market still needs to watch US consumer inflation figures, or CPI, in the middle of next week. As for the MSCI index review in November, Krungsri's research team sees it as increasingly interesting, with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, having a chance to return to the MSCI index if its share price rises to around 6 baht, plus or minus, since its market capitalization adjusted for free-float proportion has already passed the preliminary threshold. Meanwhile, PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, which is currently in the MSCI Small Cap index, has a chance to move up to the MSCI Global Standard index after its share price continued to improve. Even using a stricter market capitalization threshold assumption of about 50% above the normal level, a share price of around 50 baht, plus or minus, would still likely pass the criteria, and PTTGC also has support from progress in setting up a joint venture with the Siam Cement Group, which could add upside of about 7 to 9 baht to its fundamental value. For standout stocks, Krungsri's research team recommends Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, on the domestic play theme; WHA Corporation Public Company Limited, or WHA, on the trend of attracting foreign investment; and Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, on the trend of raising medical service fees in the social security system.
PTTGC.BK · Capital · Positive Seen as likely to move up to MSCI Global Standard index, with JV with SCG adding 7-9 baht upside to fundamental value.
THAI.BK · Capital · Positive Has a chance to return to the MSCI index if its share price rises to around 6 baht, per Krungsri's MSCI review view.
WHA.BK · Demand · Positive Krungsri recommends WHA as a standout stock on the trend of attracting foreign investment, implying demand for its industrial estates.
BCH.BK · Capital · Positive Krungsri recommends BCH as a standout stock on the trend of raising medical (prices/fees), an analyst call.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Krungsri recommends KTB as a standout stock on the domestic play theme, an analyst call.
SCC.BK · Capital · Positive Mentioned only as the partner in PTTGC's joint venture that adds upside to PTTGC's value.
DBS Vickers Securities says bank dividend stocks average 6%, picks KBANK and KTB as top choices
DBS Vickers Securities released an analysis noting that Thai bank stocks remain attractive, expecting the sector's average dividend yield in 2026 to be around 6%, higher than the stock market average of about 3%. It also expects that in 2027 the banks will continue to maintain high dividend payouts because their capital bases remain strong, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of about 17%, above the Bank of Thailand's minimum requirement of 12%. Looking at individual banks, SCB is expected to have the highest dividend yield in the group at 6.7%, followed by KTB and TISCO at 6.3% and KKP at 6.1%, while TTB and KBANK still have additional upside if leftover funds from share buyback programs are used to pay extra dividends. The research team maintains an "overweight" investment rating on the banking sector, selecting KBANK and KTB as top picks, with a target price for KBANK of 270 baht based on its strength in wealth management, and a target price for KTB of 50 baht based on its strong asset quality.
IRCP says lower court orders payment of 2.09 million baht in Smart University case, prepares to consider appeal
International Research Corporation Public Company Limited, or IRCP, informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that the South Bangkok Civil Court issued a first-instance judgment on 5 October 2026 ordering the company to pay 2.09 million baht plus interest at 5% per year from 1 July 2022 until payment is completed, and to bear the plaintiff's court fees, with lawyer's fees set at 30,000 baht, while other requests were dismissed. In this case, Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited was the plaintiff that filed suit against IRCP as the contractor under an agreement to develop systems and services for the Smart University project, or the Dome Application system, with the South Bangkok Civil Court, alleging breach of contract and seeking damages and penalties totaling 31.55 million baht plus interest, equivalent to 7.42% of the company's shareholders' equity. The company stated that the amount the court ordered it to pay was significantly lower than the amount originally claimed by the plaintiff, and that relative to the company's shareholders' equity it is no longer considered material to its financial position. It also confirmed that the judgment does not affect its normal operations, liquidity, or financial position. However, after receiving the full judgment, the company's management, legal department, and legal advisors will jointly review the details and reasoning in the judgment to determine the next legal steps, including considering whether to exercise the right to appeal within the period prescribed by law.
IRCP.BK · Regulation · Negative Court ordered IRCP to pay 2.09 million baht plus interest and fees for breach of contract in the Smart University case.
KTB.BK · Regulation · Neutral Krung Thai Bank was the plaintiff that won a first-instance judgment, but the awarded amount was far below its 31.55 million baht claim.
Yuanta says 14th development plan unlocks constraints, lifting five stock groups
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) said the government is drafting the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan for 2028-2032, which will take effect from October 2027, aiming to restructure the Thai economy and reduce constraints that hinder growth, in order to push economic expansion above 3% per year and set a goal for Thailand to rank among the world's top 20 in competitiveness by 2029. The plan is driven through five key areas, covering raising production efficiency and attracting new industries, reforming public administration toward OECD standards, upgrading human capital to support an aging society, turning natural resources and the environment into development capital, and investing in technology and innovation. A key shift from the 13th plan is the move away from designating target industries toward addressing structural constraints, through five pillars: Transform, Reform, Upgrade, Sustain, and Transfer. Yuanta's research team sees industries with a chance to benefit, including AI and data centers, electrical infrastructure, smart grid and smart meter, automated production systems, proactive water management, and digital infrastructure. The five stock groups expected to benefit are power plants, commercial banks, telecommunications, electronics, and construction contractors and building materials. Stocks that stand to gain include GULF, GUNKUL, GPSC, SSP, SCB, KTB, ADVANC, TRUE, SMT, and EPG.
Artificial Intelligence › Build-out, Construction & Engineering ▲Regulation
ADVANC.BK · Regulation · Positive ADVANC is named among the stocks expected to benefit from the 14th National Development Plan's structural reforms and digital infrastructure push.
EPG.BK · Regulation · Positive EPG is explicitly listed among the stocks standing to gain from the 14th plan's focus on technology, innovation, and new industries.
GPSC.BK · Regulation · Positive GPSC is named in the power plant group expected to benefit from the 14th plan's electrical infrastructure and smart grid investments.
GULF.BK · Regulation · Positive GULF is named among the stocks that stand to gain from the 14th plan's power and electrical infrastructure priorities.
GUNKUL.BK · Regulation · Positive GUNKUL is explicitly listed among the stocks expected to benefit from the 14th plan's electrical infrastructure and smart grid focus.
KTB.BK · Regulation · Positive Named among commercial banks expected to benefit from the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan's structural reforms.
Thai Chai Thai Plus confirms 25.48 million eligible participants as Krungthai opens counters to help install Paotang
The "Thai Chai Thai Plus (60/40) (Additional)" programme has seen 25,481,215 people press to confirm their participation, accounting for 83.0% of all 30,709,378 eligible people, while 940,544 shops have joined, or 78.9% of the total 1,191,936 shops, according to Lalida Peritswiwattana, deputy spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, who disclosed the figures on 7 October 2026. Participants will receive government support at a rate of 60%, capped at 200 baht per person per day and no more than 1,000 baht per person over the entire programme period, running from 1 October to 30 November 2026. Eligible people can confirm their rights through the Paotang application until 15 October 2026, while merchants can confirm their rights through the Thung Ngern app until 30 November 2026, with no new shop registrations being accepted. Those who are unable to complete the process themselves through the Paotang app can seek help installing and registering the application, as well as signing up for the government's electronic wallet, or G-Wallet, at branches of Krungthai Bank, or KTB, nationwide, without having to carry out every step themselves via phone. Participants in the programme can spend on food, drinks, goods and specified services at participating shops between 06:00 and 23:00, and can order food or drinks through participating food delivery service providers between 06:00 and 21:00.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive Krungthai Bank branches nationwide are opening counters to help install Paotang and register G-Wallet for the Thai Chai Thai Plus programme, driving customer traffic and app adoption.
Stocks to Watch: Banking Group Enters Q3 2026, FSS Expects 7 Banks to Post Combined Profit of 55 Billion Baht
Banking stocks are entering the third-quarter 2026 earnings season amid pressure from a falling interest-rate cycle. FSS estimates that seven stocks, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, TTB, KKP and TISCO, will report combined net profit of 54.98 billion baht, down 0.7% QoQ and down 11.6% YoY. The main pressure comes from three policy rate cuts, or 0.75%, over the past 12 months, which pushed loan yields lower, although cheaper funding costs and loan growth have partly offset the impact. Meanwhile, Thai Airways has made no progress in its search for a new CEO, with applicants saying they have only received an email confirming they passed qualification screening but have not yet been told the date for their vision presentations. AOT is set to sign two AOTGA contracts tomorrow, covering the ground services and the third cargo terminal projects, with a combined value of 67.3 billion baht over 25 years, starting operations in 2027. Brokers note that AOTGA is a key piece in strengthening airport revenue after it earned a profit of 898 million baht in 2025, and expect Airports of Thailand to post normal profit of 4.7 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the full quarter of the new PSC, and to raise its 2027 target with profit surging 45% to 28 billion baht, with a target price of 73 baht. As for MGC, brokers expect normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to jump 30% to 350 million baht on XPENG X9 deliveries, and expect a new high of about 500 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a buy recommendation and a target of 20.20 baht per share. Meanwhile, three real estate associations are joining forces to hold the 50th House and Condo Expo from 29 October to 1 May 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, targeting sales of more than 10 billion baht. GRAMMY reported that GMM MUSIC had total revenue of 2.1612 billion baht in the first half of 2026, up 12.2%, and net profit of 280.7 million baht, up 29.2%. For TRUE, brokers recommend buying and expect record third-quarter 2026 profit of nearly 7 billion baht, with a maximum target of 19 baht. DIF is expected to post investment profit of 3.138 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 3% from a year earlier, and to pay a dividend of 0.222 baht per unit, with an average full-year yield of 8.7% and a target of 10.60 baht.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive AOT to sign two AOTGA contracts worth 67.3 billion baht covering ground services and third cargo terminal, strengthening airport revenue.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Negative SCB is among the seven banks FSS expects to post lower combined profit, pressured by three policy rate cuts that reduced loan yields.
TISCO.BK · Monetary · Negative TISCO is one of the seven banks FSS expects to report lower combined net profit, hit by the falling interest-rate cycle.
TTB.BK · Monetary · Negative TTB is among the seven banks FSS expects to post lower combined profit, pressured by three policy rate cuts lowering loan yields.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Negative FSS expects BBL among seven banks to post combined profit down 11.6% YoY, pressured by three policy rate cuts lowering loan yields.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Negative KBANK included in FSS estimate of seven banks with combined profit down 11.6% YoY amid falling interest-rate cycle.
Sansiri Joins Forces with 9 Financial Institutions to Issue Perpetual Bonds in February 2027
Sansiri is preparing to issue a new series of subordinated bonds with capital-like characteristics in February 2027, with nine financial institutions acting as joint arrangers. Wichan Wiriyaphusit, Chief Financial Officer of Sansiri Public Company Limited, disclosed that this bond issuance is part of a strategic capital structure management plan to strengthen the financial statements, enhance financial flexibility and liquidity, and prepare funding sources to support business expansion plans and new project investments in 2027, alongside managing financial costs and refinancing maturing bonds. The company has received a corporate credit rating of BBB+ with a stable outlook, while this series of subordinated capital-like bonds has been assigned a credit rating of BBB- with a stable outlook by TRIS Rating Company Limited on October 2, 2026. For operating results in the first nine months of 2026, Sansiri achieved total presales of 36.4 billion baht, representing 76% of its full-year target of 48 billion baht. It has closed sales on 18 projects with a combined value of over 23.5 billion baht, and has an accumulated backlog of over 24 billion baht. In the fourth quarter of 2026, the company plans to launch 12 new projects with a combined value of 11 billion baht, covering all segments. Interested investors can study the details at www.sec.or.th or contact the nine financial institutions acting as arrangers, namely Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank and Kasikorn Securities, Krungthai Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and InnovestX Securities, CIMB Thai Bank, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, Asia Plus Securities, Krungthai XSpring Securities, and Yuan Ta Securities (Thailand). The company is currently in the process of filing the registration statement and draft prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has not yet taken effect.
ASP.BK · Capital · Neutral Named as one of nine joint arrangers for Sansiri's perpetual bond issuance, a mandate mention with no stated financial impact.
BBL.BK · Capital · Neutral Listed as a joint arranger of Sansiri's subordinated bond issue; role noted but no deal size or fee impact given.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Neutral Kasikornbank and Kasikorn Securities named among arrangers of Sansiri's capital-like bonds, with no quantified benefit.
KTB.BK · Capital · Neutral Krungthai Bank and Krungthai XSpring Securities appear as joint arrangers for the Sansiri bond issue, mentioned only in the arranger list.
SCB.BK · Capital · Neutral Siam Commercial Bank and InnovestX Securities named as joint arrangers of the Sansiri perpetual bond issuance, no specific impact stated.
TRIS Rating Co., Ltd. · Capital · Positive TRIS Rating assigned the subordinated capital-like bonds a BBB- stable rating, a rating action for the issuer's new debt.
ESG Symposium 2026 Unites ASEAN to Drive the Green Economy from Talk to Real Action
The ESG Symposium 2026, held under the theme ASEAN In Action, pushed last year's sustainability proposals into real action, building on three key agendas: Energy Transition, Just Transition, and Climate Adaptation, through 4P cooperation, or Public-Private-People Partnership. Joe Fellan, Executive Director for Asia-Pacific at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, said the sustainability transition is tied to competitiveness, security, and investment, making it both a major challenge and a major opportunity for ASEAN. Dr. Pacharapoj Nantaramas, Chief Economist at Krungthai Bank, noted that Thailand must use the Green Transition to raise its competitiveness and attract future investment, driving it end-to-end and having large businesses help upgrade SMEs in the supply chain through the Reinvent Thailand platform. Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO of SCG, said 4P cooperation can deliver real results and should be scaled up from lessons learned in Saraburi province to other areas. The results of the discussions will be summarized in a White Paper to be submitted to the government and relevant agencies for use in considering policy and developing support mechanisms for an Inclusive Green Transition.
SCC.BK · Demand · Positive SCG CEO Thammasak Sethaudom endorsed scaling 4P cooperation from Saraburi, positioning SCG within the green-transition push, though no concrete order or deal is cited.
KTB.BK · · Neutral Chief Economist at Krungthai Bank spoke on Thailand using the Green Transition to raise competitiveness and attract investment; no company-specific development.
Pi Securities Picks KTB as Top Large Bank, Eyes Special Dividend to Lift ROE to 10.5%
Pi Securities assessed the outlook for Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, maintaining its dividend payout assumption at 60% and seeing KTB as having the potential to pay a special dividend from its strong capital levels, which would support return on equity, or ROE, at a double-digit level of 10.4% in 2026 and 10.5% in 2027, the highest among large banks. For 2026 net profit, it expects growth of only 1% from the previous year amid pressure from a weakening net interest margin, or NIM, before accelerating 4% in 2027, driven mainly by loan expansion rather than NIM growth. Fee income is also expected to keep growing, particularly from the wealth management business. For third-quarter 2026 results, Pi Securities expects KTB to post net profit of about 12 billion baht, down 12% from the same period a year earlier but up 6% from the previous quarter, on loan expansion and higher fee income.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Pi Securities sees KTB able to pay a special dividend from strong capital, lifting ROE to 10.5% by 2027, the highest among large banks.
2026 State Welfare Card: e-KYC identity verification required before using benefits, channel changes allowed
The Ministry of Finance announced that those who pass the screening for the 2026 State Welfare Card project must complete identity verification via e-KYC if the system notifies them to do so, before they can use their benefits the following day. Those who wish to use their benefits through the Paotang app can verify their identity via the Paotang app until January 12, 2027. Identity verification through Krungthai Bank is also available until January 12, 2027. Identity verification through the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, the Government Savings Bank, the Government Housing Bank, and the Islamic Bank of Thailand, for those who wish to use their benefits through other channels, is available until October 14, 2026. As for changing the channel for using benefits, those who wish to switch from the Paotang app to their national ID card must do so at Krungthai Bank, while those who wish to switch from their national ID card to the Paotang app can do so themselves through the Paotang app.
KTB.BK · Regulation · Neutral Krungthai Bank is designated as a channel for e-KYC identity verification and benefit-channel switching under the 2026 State Welfare Card project.
Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) · Regulation · Neutral BAAC is listed as one of the banks where welfare-card recipients can complete e-KYC identity verification.
Government Savings Bank (ธนาคารออมสิน) · Regulation · Neutral Government Savings Bank is listed as one of the banks where welfare-card recipients can complete e-KYC identity verification.
Islamic Bank of Thailand · Regulation · Neutral Islamic Bank of Thailand is listed as one of the banks where welfare-card recipients can complete e-KYC identity verification.
CGSI expects Q3/2026 bank profits to shrink 9.2%, names KBANK as Top Pick
CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that the combined net profit of the eight banks covered by its analysts in the third quarter of 2026 will come to 57.4 billion baht, down 9.2% from the same period a year earlier but up 1.8% from the previous quarter. The decline is pressured by an overall commercial banking sector loan book that is trending toward slower expansion, based on monthly loan data from the Bank of Thailand for August 2026, which showed that large corporate customers of Bangkok Bank, or BBL, and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, made substantial debt repayments. As a result, the combined loans of the banks covered by the analysts fell 0.1% in August from the previous month, though they still grew 3.0% from the same period a year earlier and are up 2.4% since the start of the year. The banks still posting positive loan growth are led by Thai Credit Bank, or CREDIT, Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. Pre-provision operating profit is expected to fall 6.8% from the same period a year earlier but rise 1.7% from the previous quarter, while the net interest margin is expected at 2.89% and the non-performing loan ratio at 3.66%. Breaking it down bank by bank, KKP is expected to post the strongest performance, with net profit growing as much as 32.2% from the same period a year earlier, followed by TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, whose net profit is expected to grow 4.6% from the same period a year earlier. On the other hand, BBL is expected to post the weakest results, with net profit down 24.5% from the same period a year earlier, followed by KTB, whose net profit is expected to fall 16% from the same period a year earlier. On investment strategy, CGSI recommends maintaining a Neutral weighting and selects Kasikornbank, or KBANK, as its Top Pick for the sector, given that fee income from wealth management accounted for as much as 18% of its non-interest income in 2025, and it expects a dividend yield of as much as 6.2% in 2026, beating the sector average of 5.6%.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative BBL expected to post the weakest results with net profit down 24.5% YoY, pressured by large corporate debt repayments.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive CGSI selects Kasikornbank as its Top Pick with a Neutral sector weighting.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP expected to post the strongest performance with net profit growing 32.2% YoY.
KTB.BK · Capital · Negative KTB expected to post net profit down 16% YoY, among the weakest results.
CREDIT.BK · Capital · Positive Thai Credit Bank is among the banks still posting positive loan growth.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive CGSI notes TISCO is among the banks still posting positive loan growth, a favorable mention in the Q3/2026 earnings preview.
4 brokerages expect Q3/2026 bank group profits to slow to 49,400-54,980 million baht
Four leading brokerages estimate that the combined net profit of seven commercial banks in the third quarter of 2026 will slow compared with a year earlier and hold steady to edge down from the previous quarter, with combined net profit expected at around 49,400 to 54,980 million baht, according to Yuanta Securities (Thailand), Bualuang Securities, Finansia Syrus Securities, and Kasikorn Securities. The main pressures come from net interest margins narrowing along the rate-cutting cycle, lower investment and FVTPL gains from a high base a year earlier, and still-limited growth in retail and SME loans. These are partly offset by lighter provisioning after many banks front-loaded reserves in the first half, a steady average non-performing loan ratio of about 3.5%, and fee income beginning to recover on wealth management and capital markets business. For the fourth-quarter outlook, the brokerages see the overall picture weakening further both year on year and quarter on quarter, possibly marking the year's low, while for the full year 2026 they expect the bank group's combined net profit to fall about 3.5% to 5.3% before returning to roughly 5% growth in 2027. On top picks, Yuanta chose KKP with a target price of 130 baht, Bualuang chose KKP, TISCO, BBL, KBANK and TTB, Finansia Syrus chose BBL with a target price of 240 baht and KTB with a target price of 47.30 baht, while Kasikorn chose KTB and KKP, raising their target prices by 1% to 3%.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP is a top pick for both Yuanta (130 baht target) and Kasikorn Securities, which raised its target price.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Finansia Syrus picks KTB with a 47.30 baht target and Kasikorn Securities also selects KTB while raising target prices.
BBL.BK · Capital · Neutral Bualuang and Finansia Syrus name BBL a top pick with a 240 baht target, but the group's Q3/2026 profits are seen slowing on margin pressure.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Neutral Bualuang lists KBANK among top picks, yet the bank group's Q3/2026 net profit is expected to slow on narrowing NIMs and lower FVTPL gains.
TTB.BK · Capital · Negative Brokerages expect the bank group's Q3/2026 combined net profit to slow on narrowing net interest margins and lower investment/FVTPL gains, with TTB named among Bualuang's top picks.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO is named among Bualuang Securities' top picks for the bank group.
ASL Securities says fiscal 2026 budget disbursement beat target, boosting contractor and bank stocks
ASL Securities said budget disbursement for fiscal year 2026 came in better than target, with 3.62 trillion baht disbursed out of a total budget of 3.78 trillion baht, or 95.83%, above the 93% target and 4.58% higher than the same period a year earlier. This reflects improved efficiency in channeling state funds into the economy, with capital expenditure accelerating notably year on year. Capital spending disbursed reached 586 billion baht, or 75.07% of the 781 billion baht investment budget, up 8.63% year on year. Meanwhile, capital expenditure set aside for carry-over disbursement in fiscal year 2027 stood at 193 billion baht, or 24.75% of the capital expenditure budget, and the government has set a deadline to accelerate the creation of commitments for both carry-over and fiscal 2027 investment budgets within the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Given these factors, ASL Securities views this as positive sentiment for groups tied to public investment. It recommends the construction sector, namely CK and STECON, which benefit directly from accelerated public investment and disbursement, and the banking sector, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, which benefit indirectly through increased liquidity flowing into the system and a recovery in loan demand. KTB stands out for its government customer base, while BBL and KBANK stand to gain from a recovery in corporate lending and the subsequent pickup in private investment.
CK.BK · Demand · Positive CK recommended as a construction firm benefiting directly from accelerated public investment and budget disbursement.
STECON.BK · Demand · Positive STECON recommended as a construction firm benefiting directly from accelerated public investment and disbursement.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB stands out for its government customer base, benefiting indirectly from increased liquidity and loan demand from budget disbursement.
BBL.BK · Demand · Positive BBL named as a bank benefiting indirectly from increased liquidity and a recovery in corporate lending from accelerated public investment.
KBANK.BK · Demand · Positive KBANK named as a bank gaining from a recovery in corporate lending and pickup in private investment tied to public spending.
Kasikorn Securities sees Thai banks recovering, picks KKP and KTB as top stocks with targets of 153 and 48 baht
Kasikorn Securities assesses that the commercial banking sector's core operations are on a gradual recovery path. It expects the combined profit of the seven banks under its coverage in the third quarter of 2026 to reach 49.4 billion baht, down 2% from the second quarter of 2026 and down 15% from the third quarter of 2025, pressured by non-operating items. The main supporting factor comes from lower interest costs, with the net interest margin expected to rise 0.2% from the previous quarter, while loan-loss provisioning expenses are expected to fall 0.7% as management's additional reserves decline. For the fourth quarter of 2026 and continuing into 2027, loan growth is expected to accelerate, driven mainly by corporate and government lending, while retail and SME loans remain weak. On investment strategy, Kasikorn Securities maintains a positive view on the banking sector, selecting KKP and KTB as its top picks with buy recommendations and target prices of 153 baht and 48 baht respectively. It has also shifted the valuation base year for the entire banking sector from mid-2027 to the end of 2027 and raised individual target prices by 1-3%, without changing its earnings forecasts.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities names KKP a top pick with a buy rating and 153 baht target price, raising its target on the sector re-rating.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities names KTB a top pick with a buy rating and 48 baht target price, raising its target on the sector re-rating.
Krungthai Expects Baht to Weaken and Test 33.85 per Dollar, Eyes Middle East and Fed Stance
Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS strategists at Krungthai Bank, or KTB, assess the baht's range this week at 33.25 to 33.85 baht per dollar, with the currency's weakening momentum still intact and the risk open that the baht will slide to test the resistance zone of 33.85 baht per dollar. Thai players in the market are awaiting the September CPI inflation report, which is expected to rise to 3.17%, up 0.6% month on month. Core CPI is expected to rise to 1.60%, driven by higher energy prices in September and continued increases in food prices, including meat, vegetables and fruit, due to erratic weather, as well as ready-to-eat food prices following operators passing through costs and the boost from the government's economic stimulus measures. However, the cut in electricity charges will help slow the rise in inflation somewhat. On the Asian side, market players will await an assessment of Japan's economic outlook and the monetary policy direction of the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, through the wage growth report. Most recently, market players estimate the BOJ has about a 93% chance of raising rates one more time this year and may raise rates another two to three times next year. Meanwhile, analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, may raise its policy rate by 0.25%, or 25 basis points, to 5.50%, with a chance of further hikes, after India's inflation remains high and risks rising above the RBI's target range. The rupee has also reversed to weaken near its weakest point of the year again, which could further fuel inflation. The situation in the Middle East remains a key factor affecting the baht's direction through shifts in market players' views on the rate outlook for major central banks, which affects the dollar, long-term bond yields and gold prices, and also directly affects the Thai economy through volatile energy prices, transport costs and shipping freight rates. The baht still faces Two-Way Risk and can move in either direction. In the short term, the baht could continue to weaken if market players gradually raise the odds of a Fed rate hike, whether this year or next, depending on the Middle East situation, remarks from Fed officials and U.S. economic data reports. Recently, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has swung with energy prices tied to developments in the Middle East, with a 30-day correlation averaging above 72% over the past month, meaning the baht cannot clearly reverse to strengthen until market players begin to hope for a ceasefire negotiation between the United States and Iran.
USDTHB.FOREX · Monetary · Positive Krungthai expects the baht to keep weakening toward 33.85 per dollar on inflation and Fed/BOJ rate outlooks
8301.JP · Monetary · Positive Market players see about a 93% chance the BOJ hikes again this year, with more hikes expected next year
KTB.BK · Monetary · Neutral Krungthai strategists assess baht weakness and inflation; KTB is the source of the view, not a subject of a company-specific development
Brokers see Thai stocks edging higher after weak US jobs data, recommend DELTA as top pick
Several brokers expect the Thai stock market to trade in positive territory today. Finansia Syrus Securities sees the SET Index in a range of 1,565-1,583 points, helped by US Nonfarm Payrolls for September 2026, which rose by 29,000, below economists' forecast of 84,000 and below the prior 12-month average of 45,000, while the unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, higher than expected. As a result, the market has cut the probability of an October rate hike to just 22%. CGS International (Thailand) sees a range of 1,560-1,585 points, and DAOL sees a range of 1,545-1,552 up to 1,600 points. All three brokers are also watching Thailand's September inflation figures, with the market expecting headline inflation of 3.1% year-on-year and core inflation of 1.56% year-on-year, as well as the US ISM services index for September, expected to rise to 55.7, and the Fed meeting minutes due Wednesday night. The stock they all recommend is DELTA, with Finansia setting a 2027 target price of 290 baht and expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to accelerate to 8.3 billion baht and fourth-quarter 2026 profit momentum to reach 10 billion baht, lifting full-year 2026 profit to 32 billion baht. DAOL recommends bank stocks KTB, KBANK and KKP, along with data center and power plant theme stocks GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. It also noted that foreign investors were net sellers of Thai stocks to the tune of 850.49 million baht on October 2, 2026, and that the baht closed at 33.55 baht per dollar.
DELTA.BK · Capital · Positive All three brokers recommend DELTA as top pick, with Finansia setting a 2027 target price of 290 baht and forecasting accelerating Q3/Q4 2026 profit.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive DAOL recommends KKP among bank stocks as a top pick amid expectations of Thai market gains.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive DAOL recommends KTB among bank stocks as a top pick amid expectations of Thai market gains.
BGRIM.BK · Demand · Positive DAOL recommends BGRIM as a data center and power plant theme stock, implying expected demand for its power capacity.
GPSC.BK · Demand · Positive DAOL recommends GPSC as a data center and power plant theme stock, implying expected demand for its power capacity.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive DAOL recommends KBANK among bank stocks, an analyst buy recommendation.
Krungsri stays bullish on banking sector, picks KBANK and KTB as top stocks
Analysts at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited maintain a BULLISH recommendation on the banking sector, expecting ROE in 2027 to rise from 2026 because the interest rate downcycle has ended, the cycle is returning, a new investment round is underway, and wealth management is growing. After share prices fell 2-8% between 25 and 30 September 2026, the market should have already priced in some of the negative factors from asset quality risk tied to the Bangkok flood situation and the risk from northern runoff. KBANK and KTB are chosen as Top Picks because they benefit most from this investment theme. For the third quarter of 2026, net profit for the banking sector under coverage is expected at 56 billion baht, down 10% from the same period a year earlier but up 1% from the previous quarter. Banks are expected to keep paying high dividends for 2026, with a dividend yield of 5-6%, because they have high capital funds, are maintaining medium- to long-term plans to raise ROE, and have no large new investments. For the second half of 2026, dividends are expected to offer a dividend yield of 3-5%. KTB and KKP are expected to pay higher-than-expected dividends for 2026 because they announced larger-than-expected dividends for the first half of 2026.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive Krungsri Securities names KBANK a Top Pick, benefiting most from the new investment round and rising ROE theme.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Krung Thai Bank is chosen as a Top Pick, benefiting most from the investment theme, and is expected to pay higher-than-expected 2026 dividends.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KTB and KKP are expected to pay higher-than-expected 2026 dividends after larger-than-expected H1 2026 payouts.
InnovestX Says Q4 Strategy Favors Stock Picking, 3-5 Year Bonds, Gold Target of $5,300
InnovestX Securities Company Limited assessed its investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, saying financial markets still face volatility from oil prices, inflation, interest rate direction and elevated bond yields, forcing investors to place greater weight on asset selection and investment timing. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX, said the firm raised its target for the Thai stock index in 2026 from 1,600 points to 1,700 points, after expecting market earnings per share in 2026 to grow about 22% and second-quarter economic data to be stronger than expected. He recommended a fourth-quarter strategy focused on stock selection rather than buying the whole market, viewing levels below 1,550 points as an accumulation point for fundamentally strong stocks such as AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. For fixed income, he recommended focusing on 3-5 year maturities to capture still-attractive carry yield and reduce risk from interest rate volatility, with an overweight to developed-market bonds. On gold, the firm maintained a positive medium- to long-term view, estimating a 12-month price target of 5,300 US dollars per ounce on demand for diversification and capital flowing back into gold ETFs. The Thai stock market from the start of 2026 through the close on October 1, 2026 saw the SET Index at 1,563.91 points, up about 24.15% from 1,259.67 points at the end of 2025. Domestic retail investors were the largest net buyers at 58,807.49 million baht, while domestic institutional investors were the largest net sellers at about 86,397.26 million baht. From late September through early October 2026, foreign investors sold Thai shares for eight consecutive trading sessions totaling more than 34,162 million baht. Data from the Thai Bond Market Association showed that in September 2026 foreign investors were net sellers of Thai bonds worth 22,003 million baht, bringing the cumulative year-to-date net foreign selling of Thai bonds to 9,426 million baht.
AMATA.BK · Demand · Positive InnovestX names AMATA among fundamentally strong stocks to accumulate on expected 22% 2026 EPS growth and stronger Q2 data.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive CENTEL is listed among the fundamentally strong Thai stocks InnovestX recommends accumulating below 1,550 points.
CRC.BK · Demand · Positive CRC is named among the fundamentally strong stocks InnovestX recommends buying on market weakness.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB is included in InnovestX's list of fundamentally strong stocks to accumulate for Q4 2026.
PR9.BK · Demand · Positive PR9 is named among the fundamentally strong stocks InnovestX recommends accumulating below 1,550 points.
KTB sets up 2 new companies to restructure financial business group
Krungthai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, announced the establishment of two new companies to restructure the bank's internal financial business group. Krung Thai Holding Company Limited, or KTH, a subsidiary 99.99% held by the bank and a company within the bank's financial business group, has registered the establishment of two new subsidiaries: Krung Thai Alliance Holding Company Limited and Krung Thai Capital Holding Company Limited. Krung Thai Alliance Holding Company Limited operates as a holding company for companies within the bank's financial business group engaged in shared support services, as well as digital technology and innovation businesses, with registered capital of 1 million baht, fully paid up. Meanwhile, Krung Thai Capital Holding Company Limited operates as a holding company for companies within the bank's financial business group engaged in investment and asset management, and for group companies engaged in the insurance business, with registered capital of 1 million baht, fully paid up. The bank received permission from the Bank of Thailand for both newly established companies to be companies within the bank's financial business group on 9 September 2026.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive KTB restructures its financial business group by setting up two new holding subsidiaries, a corporate reorganization approved by the Bank of Thailand.
Krungthai Holding Co., Ltd. · Capital · Positive KTB's 99.99%-held subsidiary Krung Thai Holding registered two new subsidiaries as part of the bank's restructuring.
Government pushes ahead with national catastrophe insurance system, total premiums of 15.5 billion baht
The government is pushing ahead with a national catastrophe insurance system, with total premiums of 15.5 billion baht, covering approximately 30 million households. This breaks down into 15 billion baht for residential insurance and 500 million baht for group accident insurance. It marks a move to bring the public sector in as a major insurance buyer and significantly increases the total premium value generated, or premium pool, for the insurance industry. Coverage includes floods, windstorms, and earthquakes, up to 100,000 baht per event per household. In the case of death from an accident caused by a disaster, coverage is 2 million baht per person, and total permanent disability is 200,000 baht per person. Coverage begins on 1 October 2026 and runs to 1 October 2027. Companies directly linked to the scheme include Bangkok Insurance, Dhipaya Insurance, Muang Thai Insurance, and Thai Vivat Insurance. Meanwhile, KTB is indirectly linked through Krungthai Panich Insurance, and BBL has indirect exposure through its roughly 9.99% stake in BKIH. ASL Securities sees this as positive for the insurance sector in terms of premium growth and expanding insurance penetration, and recommends gradually accumulating TIPH, KTB, and BBL, with TIPH the standout stock benefiting directly from the catastrophe insurance theme.
TVH.BK · Demand · Positive Thai Vivat Insurance is named as a company directly linked to the national catastrophe insurance scheme, gaining premium growth from the 15.5 billion baht program.
MTI.BK · Demand · Positive Muang Thai Insurance is named as a company directly linked to the scheme, gaining from the 15.5 billion baht premium pool.
TIPH.BK · Demand · Positive Dhipaya Insurance is named as a company directly linked to the scheme, and TIPH is flagged as the standout direct beneficiary of the catastrophe insurance theme.
BKIH.BK · Demand · Positive BKI Holdings is indirectly linked to the national catastrophe insurance scheme via BBL's ~9.99% stake in BKIH, expanding the premium pool.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB is indirectly linked through Krungthai Panich Insurance, and ASL Securities recommends accumulating KTB on the catastrophe insurance theme.
BBL.BK · Demand · Positive BBL has indirect exposure to the catastrophe insurance scheme through its ~9.99% stake in BKIH, and ASL Securities recommends accumulating BBL on the theme.
Krungsri says bank stocks KTB and KBANK look attractive for accumulation after flood-risk selloff
Krungsri Securities said the flood situation bears watching, with the risk of inundation from dam water releases as of October 1 holding steady from the previous day. Nationwide dam water levels stood at 81%, compared with the October 2021-2025 average of 80.4% and 92% on October 11. The western and eastern regions were highest at 96%, while the central region stood at 88%. The research team assessed risk area by area, citing the case of Amata City Industrial Estate in Chonburi province, where phases 6-9 were partially flooded, causing AMATA shares to swing wildly yesterday. Overall, however, the situation is expected to fall mainly under the scenario of flooding in riverside communities, similar to a normal year, and the risk of rain behind the dams during the short transition from the rainy season to winter in the October 5-8 period still needs monitoring. On the KSS Strategist View, even though the market is still waiting to assess those risks, the bright spot is that the SET has already priced in a 2.7% de-risking after the floods. It therefore maintains its view that the banking group, which was sold off on de-risking earlier, is the main group at 5.2% and looks interesting for re-accumulation, with a focus on KTB and KBANK.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive Krungsri Securities names KBANK among the banking group sold off on flood de-risking and now attractive for re-accumulation.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Krungsri Securities names KTB among the banking group sold off on flood de-risking and now attractive for re-accumulation.
AMATA.BK · Supply · Neutral Phases 6-9 of Amata City Industrial Estate partially flooded, causing AMATA shares to swing wildly, but overall flood risk seen as a normal-year scenario.
InnovestX Expects Thai Stocks to Stay Volatile, Sets This Year's Target at 1,700 Points and Next Year's at 1,715
InnovestX Securities Company Limited assesses that Thailand's financial markets will remain volatile throughout the fourth quarter of 2026, pressured by interest rate hikes from major central banks worldwide. Suthichai Koomworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said there are seven signals to watch: crude oil prices, government bond yields, public debt burdens, the US election, natural disasters and the El Niño phenomenon, demand for AI technology, and the earnings of listed companies. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Head of Economic Research, estimates the impact of flooding on the economy, especially in Bangkok, at approximately 21,000 million baht, split into about 19,000 million baht in the third quarter of 2026 and another approximately 1,800 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, representing pressure on GDP of about -0.11%. However, there is a positive factor from the extension of the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2" program, which supports GDP by about +0.08%, leaving the net impact at only about -0.03%. GDP is expected to grow 2.0% both this year and next year. Meanwhile, Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, views this round of flooding as only a short-term event and expects that fund flows, which saw outflows of about 30,000 million baht over the past two weeks, will return to buy after the waters recede. He gives a suitable entry point of 1,500 to 1,550 points, maintains this year's SET target at 1,700 points, and sets next year's target at 1,715 points. Top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 include AMATA with a target price of 44 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 47 baht, CRC with a target price of 31 baht, KTB with a target price of 49 baht, and PR9 with a target price of 23 baht.
Brokers expect Q3/2026 banking sector core profit to grow 5% to 42.9 billion baht
Bualuang Securities' Research team estimates that the combined core profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 will be 42.9 billion baht, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, higher than the third-quarter 2026 GDP estimate of 2.0% YoY. Two main factors support this: lower provisioning and growing fee income. For provisioning, the sector's average rate is expected at 1.30%, down 17bps YoY and 2bps QoQ, while the average non-performing loan ratio to total loans is expected to edge up slightly from 2.98% at the end of June 2026 to 3.00% at the end of September 2026. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to non-performing loans is expected at 204.1%, flat QoQ. Total net fee income is expected at 40.3 billion baht, up 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven mainly by the wealth management business, whose combined net asset value of bank-owned asset management companies stood at 7.8 trillion baht at the end of August 2026, up 4% since the start of the quarter and up 11% YoY. Securities brokerage fee income is likely to grow significantly both YoY and QoQ, from securities trading value expected to rise 64% YoY and 34% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026. Counting total net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026, it is expected at 55.2 billion baht, down 11% YoY and flat QoQ, due to lower average net interest margin and lower mark-to-market gains on financial instruments. Banks expected to post YoY core profit growth are KKP +73%, TISCO +23%, BBL +20%, KBANK +5% and TTB +4%, while KTB is expected to see core profit fall 11% YoY and SCB is expected to be flat YoY. For the fourth quarter of 2026, combined core profit is expected at 39.7 billion baht, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ, on higher operating expenses. For 2027, the banking sector's combined net profit is expected at 221 billion baht, up 1% YoY, supported by loan growth expected at 2% YoY and net fee income growth of 4% YoY, while average net interest margin has likely already passed its trough in the second quarter of 2026 after most loan and deposit rate adjustments were completed.
IAA Expects SET to Close 2026 at 1,680 Points, Recommends 5 Standout Stocks: BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF, CRC
The Investment Analysts Association, or IAA, estimates that the SET Index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will move within a range of 1,537 to 1,683 points and is expected to close the year 2026 at 1,680 points. Sombut Naravuttichai, secretary-general of the association, said the survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 companies has not yet incorporated the impact of the flood situation, and puts the SET Index target for the end of 2027 at 1,727 points. It also forecasts average market EPS of 103.38 baht for 2026 and 104.29 baht for 2027, representing average EPS growth of 16.41% in 2026. Five stocks are recommended by four or more research houses in agreement: BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF and CRC. The association recommends increasing weighting in tourism, healthcare, banking, power plants, utilities, commerce and electronics, while most analysts advise avoiding energy and petrochemical stocks, airlines and property. Wichit Arayapisit, senior director of the securities analysis department at Kasikorn Securities, said the firm has raised its SET Index target for the end of 2027 to 1,680 points from 1,620 points, and estimates EPS this year at 110 baht per share, while next year it is expected to fall about 5% to 105 baht per share. It recommends a defensive strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, favouring electronics such as DELTA, KCE and HANA, power plants such as GULF and GPSC, banks such as KTB and KKP, and hotels and tourism such as CENTEL and AWC.
GULF.BK · Capital · Positive IAA/Kasikorn recommend GULF as a standout power-plant/utility pick for Q4 2026 defensive strategy.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive KBANK is one of five stocks recommended by four or more research houses, with banking sector favored for increased weighting.
BDMS.BK · Capital · Positive BDMS is one of five stocks recommended by four or more research houses in the IAA survey.
DELTA.BK · Capital · Positive DELTA is recommended by the IAA survey and named by Kasikorn Securities as a favored electronics pick.
GPSC.BK · Capital · Positive GULF is one of five stocks recommended by four or more research houses and a favored power-plant pick.
HANA.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities recommends HANA among favored electronics stocks for Q4 2026.
Ekniti touts AI Nok Krasib, helping shops sell smarter and access credit through Thung Ngern
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the "AI Nok Krasib" credit program, launched on September 10, 2026 and now 21 days into operation, has made it easier for freelancers, small operators and SMEs to access formal credit by using sales data and payment records from the "Thung Ngern" application in credit assessments. This builds on the use of the "Nok Krasib" AI as a sales-planning and cost-management assistant for shops in the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" program. Ekniti said he wants merchants not only to be able to sell, but to sell well and sell smart. He gave the example that if data shows Thursday is the best sales day, shops can use sales figures and the number of items sold to plan and stock goods in line with demand. He added that today Nok Krasib makes it easier to reach banks without needing collateral. For credit products under the program, Krungthai Bank offers "Sip Muen Loan" with a maximum of 500,000 baht per borrower and an interest rate starting at 11% per year, and "Small-Size SME Loan" with a maximum of 3 million baht per borrower and an interest rate starting at 3.5% per year, fixed for the first two years, guaranteed by the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) with no collateral required. Government Savings Bank offers "GSB QR Maha Heng x Nok Krasib" with a maximum of 50,000 baht, not exceeding 1.5 times average sales over at least the past three months, with no collateral required, at a flat-rate interest of 0.75% per month, equivalent to an effective annual rate of 16.20%. Registration and preliminary eligibility screening via the bank's website runs from September 24 to October 31, 2026. In addition, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), the Islamic Bank of Thailand (iBank) and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Bank of Thailand (SME D Bank) are jointly developing credit products under the program, along with TCG credit guarantee mechanisms, to meet working capital needs, boost liquidity and support business expansion for each group of entrepreneurs.
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KTB.BK · Demand · Positive Krungthai Bank offers Sip Muen Loan and Small-Size SME Loan under the AI Nok Krasib credit program, expanding its lending to SMEs.
Government Savings Bank (ธนาคารออมสิน) · Demand · Positive Government Savings Bank offers GSB QR Maha Heng x Nok Krasib loans under the program, gaining new SME borrowers.
Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) · Demand · Positive BAAC is listed among the banks participating in the AI Nok Krasib credit program.
Islamic Bank of Thailand · Demand · Positive Islamic Bank of Thailand is listed among the banks participating in the AI Nok Krasib credit program.
Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation · Demand · Positive TCG guarantees the Small-Size SME Loan under the program, expanding its guarantee activity.
Three brokerages set SET targets for the final stretch of 2026, pick top Q4/2026 stocks
Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.
KTB says Thailand's Longevity Food market will double to 32 billion baht by 2035
Krungthai COMPASS research center at Krungthai Bank reported that Thailand's high-value-added Longevity Food market will grow from 15.7 billion baht in 2024 to 32.0 billion baht in 2035, a CAGR of 6.7% per year, driven by an aging society and a rising number of patients with chronic non-communicable diseases, expected to increase from about 22 million people in 2024 to nearly 30 million in 2035. Dr. Supree Srisamran, Director of the Krungthai COMPASS research center, stated that Thais' average life expectancy rose from 76.8 to 77.6 years during 2016-2021, but healthy life expectancy fell from 67.2 to 65.8 years, widening the period of living with health limitations from 9.6 to 11.8 years. Meanwhile, the burden of NCDs creates economic costs of about 1.6 to 1.7 trillion baht per year, and if the number of NCD patients fell by 5%, it would reduce economic costs by about 141 billion baht per year, or roughly 4.4 times the value of the Longevity Food market. Mr. Kritsanon Jindawong, an analyst at the Krungthai COMPASS research center, advised Thai operators to accelerate upgrading products in the Longevity Food segment to carry clear and credible health claims, while investing in research and development and building partnerships with players in the Health Ecosystem to elevate Thailand's food business toward creating added value through innovation and health knowledge.
KTB.BK · · Neutral Krungthai COMPASS research center (part of Krungthai Bank) authored the report on Thailand's Longevity Food market; no direct financial impact on the bank itself.
Kasikorn Securities names KTB and KKP as standout bank stocks, sees pullback opening upside, SET target of 1,680 points by end of 2026
Wichit Arayapisit, Senior Director of the Securities Analysis Department at Kasikorn Securities, said that bank stocks, which had previously risen on the dividend theme until their short-term valuation reached an unattractive zone at a PBV of close to 1 time, have now pulled back on flood concerns, opening an upside opportunity for a new round of investment, especially if PBV falls into the 0.7 to 0.8 times zone. Among the standout stocks worth accumulating in this group is KTB, driven by growth that tracks the country's investment cycle, offering a high dividend yield and third- and fourth-quarter earnings momentum that is not falling as sharply as at other banks. KKP stands out for its large share of capital market businesses such as brokerage and its overseas investments that help accelerate profit; although its valuation has risen somewhat, it still pays a high dividend and maintains a high ROE. On the overall Thai economy, growth this year is expected at 2%, with flooding cutting GDP by at most 0.1% if there is no second round of flooding. As for NPL concerns, the impact is seen as limited if flooding does not last longer than 2 to 3 days up to 1 week, and the government is expected to roll out measures to help borrowers. The research department of Kasikorn Securities sees a SET Index target of 1,680 points by the end of 2026, based on an EPS forecast of 105 baht and a valuation P/E of 16 times.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities names KKP a standout bank stock to accumulate, citing its large capital-market business share, overseas investments, high dividend, and high ROE.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities names KTB a standout bank stock to accumulate, citing growth tied to the country's investment cycle, high dividend yield, and better Q3/Q4 earnings momentum than peers.
KSS says SET is starting to base out, flood situation 65% past its peak, recommends 6 standout stocks
Koraphat Worachet, Head of Research at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, said on the stock-focused market news program on October 1, 2026, that the Thai stock market has a chance to begin forming a base from now on if there are no additional significant negative factors from the flood situation. He assessed that overall water conditions have about a 65% chance of having already passed their peak, although some areas still face the risk of another round of flooding, the severity is not expected to exceed that of the past weekend. On the impact, KSS stated that water levels in the northern region that could flow down and add to the situation remain at about 70-75% of the level seen during the great flood of 2011, and if the impact is limited to one to two weeks, it could affect GDP by about 0.3%, compared with 2011, when the impact on GDP reached as much as about 3%. On investment strategy, KSS recommended six standout stocks: KBANK and KTB in the banking group, on the trend of large corporate customer loans growing in line with investment in data centers and AI infrastructure; KCE and DELTA in the electronic components group, with KSS raising its target price for KCE to 69.70 baht; PTTGC in the petrochemical group, on its joint venture cooperation with the Siam Cement Group and the chance of support from the MSCI index review in November; and COM7 in the consumer and finance group, on the trend of continued growth in smartphone and IT equipment sales. It also gave a support range for the SET Index at 1,545-1,550 points and a resistance level at 1,580 points.
COM7.BK · Demand · Positive KSS recommends COM7 on the trend of continued growth in smartphone and IT equipment sales.
KBANK.BK · Demand · Positive KSS recommends KBANK on large corporate customer loans growing with data-center and AI infrastructure investment.
KCE.BK · Capital · Positive KSS recommends KCE and raised its target price for KCE to 69.70 baht.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KSS recommends KTB on large corporate customer loans growing with data-center and AI infrastructure investment.
PTTGC.BK · Capital · Positive KSS recommends PTTGC as a standout stock, citing its joint venture cooperation with Siam Cement Group and potential support from the MSCI index review in November.
DELTA.BK · Demand · Positive KSS names DELTA among standout electronic component stocks, with data-center/AI infrastructure investment driving demand.
Asia Plus says SETBANK down 4.3% over one month, recommends accumulating KTB and KBANK
Asia Plus Securities stated that although the US PCE figure for August came in at 3.4% year-on-year, below market expectations, US 2-year and 10-year bond yields remain elevated at 4.89% and 5.28%, creating volatility for bank stocks in many countries. In the one month since Jackson Hole, the MSCI ACWI Banks index has fallen 3.4%, compared with a 1.3% decline in the MSCI ACWI, while the SETBANK index has continued to slide over the past two days, bringing its one-month loss to 4.3%, led by KKP down 6%, followed by KTB down 5.7% and KBANK down 5.6%, against a 1.9% decline in the SET. On the flood situation as of September 29, the Ministry of Industry reported that 40 provinces have been affected and that 204 SME operators have joined the debt-payment suspension programme, representing debt of about 769 million baht, a proportion that is not high compared with the 14 trillion baht in loans held by the eight banks. The research team estimates that every 0.25% increase in the risk-free rate above its assumption would reduce fair value by 4%, and views the correction in bank stocks as having already priced in some of the pressure from bond yields. It recommends gradually accumulating banks whose prices have fallen more than average over the past month, such as KTB, which has a fair value of 48 baht, followed by KBANK, which has a fair value of 259 baht and a PBV that has dropped to 0.9 times, compared with the sector average of 1.1 times.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive Asia Plus recommends gradually accumulating KBANK, noting its PBV has dropped to 0.9x versus the 1.1x sector average, with fair value 259 baht.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Asia Plus recommends accumulating KTB, which fell 5.7% over the past month, with a fair value of 48 baht.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive The article notes the US 10-year bond yield remains elevated at 5.28%, and every 0.25% rise above assumptions cuts bank fair value by 4%.
US-2Y.GB · Monetary · Positive The article notes the US 2-year bond yield remains elevated at 4.89%, driving volatility in bank stocks.
KKP.BK · Monetary · Negative KKP led the SETBANK decline, down 6% over the past month, as elevated US bond yields pressured bank stocks.
DAOL Expects SET to Be Volatile Today, Highlights ADVANC with 13% Q3 Profit Growth, Buy Rating and 435 Baht Target
DAOL Securities (Thailand) expects the SET index to be volatile today but sees momentum better than the previous day after PCE figures came in below expectations, giving a support range of 1,530-1,545 points and a resistance range of 1,572-1,586 points. It noted that still-high US bond yields put emerging markets at risk of fund flows returning to the US, and recommended using sharp share price declines as an opportunity to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks, especially banks, where it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For today's top pick, it recommends buying ADVANC, expecting normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 at 13.6 billion baht, up 13% year on year and down 1% quarter on quarter, driven by the mobile and FBB businesses where net adds and ARPU improved. It maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 53.5 billion baht, up 12% year on year, with the fourth quarter of 2026 to be supported by the high season and a full quarter of recognition of new iPhone sales. Meanwhile, flooding in Bangkok, its surrounding provinces and more than 20 other provinces pressured bank and insurance stocks, sending the SET to close yesterday at 1,559.01 points, down 2.21%. Six major banks announced relief measures for customers, such as a three-to-six-month suspension of principal and interest payments and special-rate rehabilitation loans. As for the Thailand-US trade agreement talks, the principles were concluded on September 30, as disclosed by Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Supajee, but the Access Capacity measure remains, with Thailand aiming to finalise details before November to avoid higher tariffs and targeting an overall tariff rate of no more than 19%.
ADVANC.BK · Capital · Positive DAOL's top pick with a Buy rating and 435 baht target, expecting Q3 2026 profit up 13% YoY on mobile/FBB net adds and ARPU.
KBANK.BK · Regulation · Neutral Named among banks DAOL still likes, but also among banks pressured by flooding and offering relief measures like payment suspensions.
KKP.BK · Regulation · Neutral Named among banks DAOL still likes, but also among banks pressured by flooding and offering relief measures like payment suspensions.
KTB.BK · Regulation · Neutral Named among banks DAOL still likes, but also among banks pressured by flooding and offering relief measures like payment suspensions.
Krungsri sees floods pressuring bank stocks short-term, favors KTB and KBANK for gradual accumulation
Krungsri Securities estimates that flooding will affect GDP by about 0.2% if the situation does not drag on beyond one to two weeks, and views it as a factor pressuring bank stocks in the short term. The banking sector index has fallen about 7% from its peak, and between September 22 and 30, 2026, KTB shares dropped 8.33% while KBANK fell 9.34%, the largest declines among the banks Krungsri studied in this round. Krungsri believes selling in bank stocks has already largely reflected concerns over the flood situation compared with past events, but it cannot yet confirm that the bottom has passed, so it recommends a strategy of gradual accumulation rather than chasing prices. It gives KTB first priority after its 8.33% decline, on the chance it benefits from government-related lending and funding demand for post-flood recovery, followed by KBANK, which fell 9.34% and could be considered for more accumulation if concerns about asset quality, especially among SME customers, begin to ease. Krungsri noted that the roughly 0.2% hit to GDP is significantly lower than the 2011 floods, which were estimated to affect GDP by about 3.0%. The key issues to watch are credit costs and asset quality, with the crucial condition being that the flood situation must not drag on to the point where banks must raise credit costs or significantly cut profit forecasts.
Treasury confirms 11.25 million new state welfare cardholders, 7.6 million fail criteria
The Ministry of Finance announced the results of the 2026 state welfare registration programme on 30 September. Of the 18,820,784 people who registered, 11,254,921 passed the qualification criteria, comprising 8,592,931 existing cardholders and 2,661,990 new or previously missed applicants without cards, while about 7.6 million failed to qualify. Winich Wisetsuwannaphum, director of the Fiscal Policy Office and spokesman for the Ministry of Finance, said all 11,254,921 successful applicants must verify their identity through Krungthai Bank and the Paotang app by 12 January 2027, or at the registration units of five banks, namely Government Savings Bank, Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, Government Housing Bank, Islamic Bank of Thailand and Krungthai Bank, by 14 October. Those who register within October will receive an additional 700 baht, bringing the total to 1,000 baht for October to November, while those who register after October will receive the usual 300 baht per month. At present, 428,261 people have still not completed identity verification. Of the 5,011,678 appeals filed, about 1,750,000 passed the criteria and 3,263,288 failed, with the largest share failing because their credit line exceeded 100,000 baht. The roughly 7.6 million people who failed to qualify, along with 470,000 existing cardholders who did not register this time, will instead be covered by the Thai Chuay Thai Plus 60/40 programme, and can verify their identity on the Paotang app from 1 to 15 October to receive benefits for October to November without re-registering. The Thai Chuay Thai Plus programme will cover about 30.8 million beneficiaries, up from about 26.04 million, and remains within the ceiling of 32.5 million approved by the Cabinet.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive Krungthai Bank is the primary channel for identity verification and Paotang app registration for the 11.25 million welfare cardholders, driving customer onboarding and transaction volume.
Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) · Demand · Positive BAAC is one of five banks designated as registration units for welfare cardholders to verify identity, bringing in new customers.
Government Savings Bank (ธนาคารออมสิน) · Demand · Positive Government Savings Bank is one of five banks designated as registration units for welfare cardholders to verify identity, bringing in new customers.
Islamic Bank of Thailand · Demand · Positive Islamic Bank of Thailand is one of five banks designated as registration units for welfare cardholders to verify identity, bringing in new customers.
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