ASL Securities expects Q3/26 earnings for 9 banks to be flat QoQ but down 10% YoY

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Summary · why it matters

ASL Securities estimates the combined net profit of nine banks in the third quarter of 2026 at 64.921 billion baht, flat from the previous quarter but down 9.8% from a year earlier, pressured by lower net interest income as net interest margins narrow, alongside still-limited loan growth and slowing non-interest income, particularly investment gains and trading gains. Meanwhile, funding costs are beginning to ease as deposits reprice, and gradually declining credit costs are helping to support results. For the first nine months of 2026, combined net profit is expected to total 196.52 billion baht, down 4% from a year earlier. Mid-sized and smaller banks are likely to show standout growth, with KKP forecast to post net profit of 2.1 billion baht, up 26% YoY, the highest in the group, while CREDIT is expected to report net profit of 1.16 billion baht, up 17% QoQ, the strongest sequential gain in the group. KTB and BBL are expected to see profit recover 5% and 7% QoQ respectively, while KBANK and SCB continue to face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income. For the fourth quarter of 2026, group earnings are expected to slow QoQ on seasonally higher operating expenses and asset-quality risks, particularly the impact of flooding on retail, SME and hire-purchase loans, which may prompt some banks to increase management overlay provisions. On valuation, bank stocks remain attractive, trading at an average 2026 price-to-book value of 1.1 times, with an average dividend yield of 5.5% expected, against an average return on equity of 10.5%. With group net profit forecast to grow 3.8% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, the investment strategy should focus on banks with outstanding earnings growth, strong asset quality and the potential to boost shareholder returns through dividends or capital management, especially banks trading below one times price-to-book value.

Impact on assets 6

Financials± Mixed
Thai Credit Pcl
CREDIT
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

CREDIT forecast to post net profit of 1.16 billion baht, up 17% QoQ, the strongest sequential gain in the group.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▼
SCB X Public Company Limited
SCB
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

SCB is named among banks continuing to face pressure from slowing net interest income and non-interest income, weighing on Q3/26 earnings.

Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
± MixedCapitalrelevance

BBL expected to see profit recover 7% QoQ, but group earnings flat QoQ and down ~10% YoY on margin pressure.