← SCB X overview

SCB X vs SBI: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

SCB X Public Company Limited (SCB.BK)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

SCB X hit by profit drop, bad loans; rate-cut end and new fees offer hope

  • Profit decline and bad loans Q2 profit fell 13% on rate cuts, with 14.5bn baht write-offs and rising bad loans keeping provisions high. Q3 profit is expected down 5–10%, squeezing earnings.

    This is the main negative force on the stock, showing earnings pressure from credit costs and rate cuts.

  • SME risks from tariffs and zombie firms US tariffs and 'zombie' firms threaten SME lending, a key business for SCB. This adds uncertainty to future loan quality and growth.

    It highlights a specific risk to SCB's loan book that could lead to more defaults and provisions.

  • Rate-cut cycle ending, stabilizing margins The rate-cut cycle appears over, which should stabilize SCB's margins after prior cuts squeezed profitability. This removes a major headwind.

    It signals a potential end to margin compression, a key positive for future earnings.

  • New fee ventures and analyst upgrade SCB launched gold trading, CORA AI, and Amex partnerships to diversify income. UBS upgraded the stock to Buy, and Fitch lifted Thailand's outlook, boosting sentiment.

    These developments show efforts to grow non-interest income and improve investor confidence.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Flood relief and rate cuts squeeze SCB, but dividend appeal supports

  • Flood relief measures and past rate cuts pressure margins Flood relief measures and past rate cuts are squeezing SCB's lending margins, with Q3 profit expected to fall 5–10% year-on-year. Floods have hit over a million households and SMEs, trimming interest income and raising future bad-debt risk.

    This is the main new negative force on SCB's earnings and share price this period.

  • Rate-cut cycle ending, stabilizing net interest margins The rate-cut cycle appears to be ending, which stabilizes SCB's net interest margin. This removes a key headwind that had been pressuring profits, offering support to the stock.

    This is a new positive development that offsets some of the margin pressure.

  • New fee-based ventures broaden non-lending income SCB launched new fee-based ventures: AI tool CORA, insurance products, and American Express card acceptance. These broaden non-lending income, helping to offset weaker interest income.

    This is a new strategic move to diversify revenue and support future earnings.

  • Dividend appeal and top-pick status underpin stock SCB's ~7% dividend yield and top-pick status from CLSA and Yuanta underpin the stock. This income appeal supports the share price even as earnings decline.

    This is a key positive factor that provides support amid weak earnings.

Latest
▲2▼2

SCB's profit squeeze deepens as floods and weak margins offset dividend appeal

  • Q3 profit seen falling on thinner lending margin Brokers expect SCB's third-quarter profit around 10.8-11.5 billion baht, down roughly 5-10% from a year ago, because interest income shrank after past rate cuts and the margin on loans narrowed. Weaker profit is the main drag on the share price.

    This is the core new earnings picture for the period and directly explains downward pressure on SCB.BK.

  • Floods hit borrowers and add bad-debt risk SCB's research arm says the floods cut Thai growth by up to 0.25 points and hit over a million households and many SMEs. Banks are letting flood-hit customers delay repayments, which trims interest income now and raises the risk some loans go bad later.

    Flood damage is a fresh, concrete force weighing on SCB's earnings and asset quality.

  • Dividend appeal keeps income investors interested SCB pays a 2 baht interim dividend and brokers see a full-year yield near 7%, among the highest in Thai banking. CLSA and Yuanta also name SCB a top pick. Steady payouts put a floor under the stock even while profit falls.

    Dividend strength is the main counterweight supporting SCB.BK against the weak earnings trend.

  • New fee and technology businesses broaden income SCB launched its own AI document analyst CORA, added travel insurance and a savings-insurance product on its app, and expanded card acceptance with American Express. These add fee income and customer ties without lending risk, a slow but real growth stream.

    These new non-lending businesses show where SCB's future income growth comes from beyond squeezed interest margins.

▲2▼2

SCB hit by flood relief costs and weak Q3 profits, but rate cycle end offers support

  • Flood relief measures squeeze margins SCB and other banks are letting flood-hit customers delay loan repayments and cutting interest rates. This means SCB earns less interest income for a while, and its profit margin shrinks. The stock fell 2.3% on the day this was announced.

    This is a new event that directly pressures SCB's earnings and was the main reason bank stocks fell.

  • Q3 profit expected to fall 7% year-on-year Two brokers forecast SCB's third-quarter profit at around 11.2 billion baht, down 7% from a year ago. The decline comes from lower interest income after past rate cuts. This weak earnings picture weighs on the stock price.

    New profit forecasts for Q3 directly affect investor expectations for SCB's near-term performance.

  • Rate-cut cycle ending supports future margins Brokers say the long fall in Thai interest rates is over, and net interest margins are starting to stabilise. This means SCB's core lending profit should stop shrinking and may slowly recover, which is a positive for the stock.

    This is a key positive force that offsets the negative profit news and explains why the outlook may improve.

  • SCB provides 68 billion baht credit line to PTT SCB is lending over 68 billion baht to PTT, a large state-owned energy company. This is a big loan that will generate steady interest income for SCB and shows its strong position in corporate lending.

    This new business deal is a concrete positive for SCB's loan book and earnings, not just market sentiment.

September 2026
▲3

SCB Outlook Brightens on Rate Peak, Gold Platform, Upgrades

  • Rate-cut cycle seen ending, boosting bank margins Brokers said the Bank of Thailand's rate-cutting cycle is over, which would let banks earn more on loans versus deposits. This improves SCB's profit outlook after earlier rate cuts squeezed margins.

    This is a key new positive driver for SCB's earnings and stock price.

  • SCB launches gold-trading platform in app SCB added a gold-trading feature to its mobile app, creating a new source of fee income. This helps diversify revenue away from traditional lending, which has been under pressure.

    New fee income stream supports profitability and is a fresh development.

  • UBS upgrades SCB to Buy, Fitch lifts Thailand outlook UBS upgraded SCB to Buy with a 165 baht target, citing lower credit costs and an 80% dividend payout. Fitch's upgrade of Thailand to Stable also lifted bank stocks, including SCB.

    Analyst and sovereign upgrades directly boost investor sentiment and demand for SCB shares.

  • SME support vs. tariff and zombie-firm risks The Bank of Thailand's SME credit portal and guarantee fund could unlock lending, with SCB holding 15% of SME loans. But US Section 301 tariffs threaten exports, and SCB EIC warns 12% of Thai firms are zombies, with SME loans contracting 16 straight quarters.

    This captures both the potential upside from policy support and the persistent downside risks to loan demand and asset quality.

▲2▼2

SCB lifted by UBS upgrade, Fitch outlook, but loan weakness persists

  • UBS Upgrades SCB to Buy, Raises Target to 165 Baht UBS upgraded SCB from Hold to Buy and raised its target price to 165 baht, citing lower credit costs, higher earnings forecasts, and a high dividend payout of 80%. This directly boosts investor confidence and the stock's appeal.

    This is a major analyst upgrade that directly drives positive sentiment and price targets for SCB.

  • Fitch Upgrades Thailand Outlook to Stable, Bank Stocks Rally Fitch revised Thailand's credit outlook to Stable, lifting bank stocks including SCB. The upgrade reduces country risk, lowers funding costs, and attracts foreign capital, supporting SCB's valuation and dividend yield appeal.

    The sovereign outlook upgrade improves the operating environment and directly benefits Thai banks like SCB.

  • SCB EIC Warns of Zombie Firms and Weak SME Lending SCB's research arm reports nearly 12% of Thai firms are zombie companies, with SME loans contracting for 16 straight quarters. This signals rising credit risk and weak loan demand, pressuring SCB's asset quality and growth.

    This highlights a key risk to SCB's loan book and profitability, acting as a counterweight to positive drivers.

  • SCB's Loans Flat, Earnings Lag Peers in July-August Bualuang reported SCB's loans slipped 0.1% MoM and July-August earnings were flat, underperforming peers. This reflects sluggish loan growth and earnings momentum, a near-term drag on the stock.

    It provides recent operating data showing SCB's relative weakness, balancing the positive analyst and macro news.

▲3▼1

Rate-cut cycle ending and new gold platform lift SCB's outlook

  • Rate-cut cycle seen ending, banks to benefit Brokers now say the long fall in Thai interest rates is over, and US rates are rising too. Higher rates let SCB earn more on loans than it pays depositors, easing the squeeze that cut its profit last quarter. Several houses name SCB among banks that gain.

    This directly reverses the main negative from earlier reports (rate cuts squeezing margins) and is the biggest force behind the stock now.

  • New gold trading platform on SCB EASY app SCB launched a gold marketplace inside its app with three major dealers, letting 17 million users trade gold cheaply. This adds fee income and deepens customer ties without lending risk, a small but real new growth stream beyond traditional banking.

    It is a concrete new business move this period that supports fee income and customer engagement, offsetting weak loan demand.

  • Central bank moves to unlock SME lending The Bank of Thailand is rolling out a credit portal, a new guarantee fund and use of utility bills to judge borrowers, aiming at 200 billion baht of new SME loans a year from late 2026. SCB holds 15% of SME loans, so it should win some of this.

    It shows a regulatory push that could revive loan growth for SCB, a key driver of future interest income.

  • US tariff threat hangs over Thai economy SCB's own research arm warns the US may impose high new Section 301 tariffs on Thailand over excess capacity, with rates due within September. Tariffs would hurt Thai exports and business confidence, which could slow loan demand and raise bad-debt risk for SCB.

    It is the main counterweight this period, a real risk that could undermine the positive rate and lending story.

July 2026
▼2▲1

SCB profit falls as rate cuts and bad loans bite

  • Q2 profit drops 13% on rate cuts SCB's second-quarter profit fell 13% from a year earlier to 11.1 billion baht, as falling Thai interest rates squeezed the gap between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits. Fee income from wealth management grew, but not enough to fully offset the drop.

    This is the core earnings result driving the stock and explains why profit is shrinking.

  • Bad loans and heavy write-offs weigh on asset quality SCB wrote off 14.5 billion baht of bad debt and sold more non-performing loans, yet problem loans still rose over three quarters. Analysts warn provisions will stay high, pressuring future profits and limiting share price upside.

    Asset quality is the key concern flagged by analysts and directly affects future earnings and valuation.

  • Strong capital and highest dividend yield among big banks Despite lower profit, SCB's capital ratio of 18.6% is above regulatory requirements, and analysts name it the top pick for dividends and value among large Thai banks. This income appeal supports the stock even as earnings decline.

    This is the main counterweight keeping investors interested despite weak profit.

  • New lending and NPL sales offset some weakness SCB extended 68 billion baht in credit to PTT Group and provided green loans to Sansiri, supporting future interest income. It also sold a 6-billion-baht bad loan portfolio to BAM, cleaning up its balance sheet. These deals help but don't fix the profit squeeze.

    These deals show SCB is still winning business and managing risk, partially offsetting the negative earnings picture.

▼2▲1

SCB profit falls as rate cuts and bad loans bite

  • Q2 profit drops 13% on rate cuts SCB's second-quarter profit fell 13% from a year earlier to 11.1 billion baht, as falling Thai interest rates squeezed the gap between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits. Fee income from wealth management grew, but not enough to fully offset the drop.

    This is the core earnings result driving the stock and explains why profit is shrinking.

  • Bad loans and heavy write-offs weigh on asset quality SCB wrote off 14.5 billion baht of bad debt and sold more non-performing loans, yet problem loans still rose over three quarters. Analysts warn provisions will stay high, pressuring future profits and limiting share price upside.

    Asset quality is the key concern flagged by analysts and directly affects future earnings and valuation.

  • Strong capital and highest dividend yield among big banks Despite lower profit, SCB's capital ratio of 18.6% is above regulatory requirements, and analysts name it the top pick for dividends and value among large Thai banks. This income appeal supports the stock even as earnings decline.

    This is the main counterweight keeping investors interested despite weak profit.

  • New lending and NPL sales offset some weakness SCB extended 68 billion baht in credit to PTT Group and provided green loans to Sansiri, supporting future interest income. It also sold a 6-billion-baht bad loan portfolio to BAM, cleaning up its balance sheet. These deals help but don't fix the profit squeeze.

    These deals show SCB is still winning business and managing risk, partially offsetting the negative earnings picture.

SBI Holdings Incorporated (8473.JP)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

SBI expands crypto and stablecoin push, but dividend cut weighs

  • Crypto and stablecoin expansion SBI invested ¥12bn in EDX Markets, reached 2 million SBI VC Trade accounts, acquired Coinhako and Bitbank, gained RLUSD approval, and became a Circle Arc validator. It also began yen-won stablecoin payment trials across 1.2 million Korean merchants.

    These concrete moves show SBI deepening its crypto and stablecoin footprint, a key growth driver.

  • Record earnings and Ripple stake SBI reported record quarterly earnings and its stake in Ripple reached ¥6.6 trillion. Stablecoin reserves now earn Japanese government bond income, adding a new revenue stream.

    Strong financial results and a valuable Ripple stake directly boost investor confidence and valuation.

  • New customer partnerships Partnerships with Minkabu, Livedoor, and JR Kyushu are feeding new customers into SBI's financial services, expanding its user base and cross-selling opportunities.

    These alliances drive customer growth, supporting future revenue and market position.

  • Dividend cut and execution risks The year-end dividend was cut to ¥75 per share (¥150 split-adjusted), disappointing income investors. Tokenization, on-chain trading, and AI remain experimental; the FOLIO IPO and EDX investment depend on market conditions, and crypto prices stay volatile.

    The dividend cut could pressure the share price, and experimental ventures carry execution risk.

August 2026
▲3▼1

SBI deepens stablecoin and tokenization push, but dividend cut disappoints

  • Stablecoin and tokenization expansion SBI gained approval to offer Ripple's RLUSD in Japan, became a founding validator on Circle's Arc blockchain, and advanced its Strium blockchain with a fiscal 2026 mainnet target, deepening its digital-asset strategy.

    This is a major new development in SBI's core crypto strategy that could drive future growth.

  • Record earnings and Ripple stake SBI posted record quarterly earnings and its Ripple stake reached ¥6.6 trillion, highlighting the value of its crypto investments and strong financial performance.

    Record earnings and a massive stake value are key positive financial drivers for the stock.

  • International and acquisition growth SBI invested about $270 million for 20% of Indonesia's Ajaib, expanded via Solana, formed payment joint ventures, and acquired Livedoor and Brangista, broadening its global footprint.

    These moves show SBI's active expansion into new markets and businesses, supporting long-term growth.

  • Dividend cut disappoints income investors SBI confirmed a year-end dividend of ¥75 per share, down from ¥140 pre-split, though split-adjusted it equals ¥150; this disappointed income investors and could pressure the share price.

    The dividend reduction is a negative factor that may weigh on investor sentiment and the stock price.

Latest
▲3▼1

SBI's crypto and media expansion drives growth, but dividend cut weighs

  • Record quarterly earnings and strong Ripple stake value SBI reported record-high revenue and profit for the April–June quarter, helped by buoyant markets. Its Ripple stake is valued at 6.6 trillion yen, showing confidence despite XRP's slowdown. These support the share price by confirming earnings power and hidden asset value.

    Directly shows financial strength and asset value that underpin the stock.

  • Crypto and stablecoin infrastructure push SBI partnered with Solana for stablecoins and tokenization, joined a stablecoin settlement pilot for digital securities, and formed a crypto payment joint venture with Money Forward and Mesh. These moves expand SBI's blockchain and payment businesses, supporting future growth.

    Shows new business initiatives that can drive future revenue and market position.

  • Media and consolidation deals add customers SBI will make Livedoor a wholly owned subsidiary for about 7.5 billion yen and is buying more Brangista shares through a subsidiary. These deals strengthen SBI's media and financial information platform, bringing in new customers and revenue streams.

    Highlights strategic acquisitions that broaden SBI's business and customer base.

  • Dividend cut disappoints income investors SBI confirmed a year-end dividend of ¥75 per share, down from ¥140 a year earlier after a two-for-one stock split. Although the split-adjusted payout is equivalent to ¥150 pre-split, the lower cash amount may disappoint income-focused investors and weigh on the share price.

    A real counterweight: lower dividend per share can pressure the stock, especially for income investors.

September 2026
▲4

SBI expands crypto and stablecoin reach with Bitbank buy and Korea payments push

  • Stablecoin reserves now earn bond income SBI started investing part of the yen stablecoin JPYSC's reserves in short-term Japanese government bonds, allowed under new rules. This lets the stablecoin business earn a return on reserves, making it more profitable and useful, which supports the share price.

    New regulation-driven revenue source for SBI's stablecoin business.

  • Japan-Korea stablecoin payments move toward real use SBI tested direct yen-won stablecoin exchange with Kyobo Life, then signed with two Korean firms to trial cross-border payments at 1.2 million Korean merchants. If commercialized, this opens a new payments business for SBI, lifting growth prospects.

    Shows SBI building a real cross-border stablecoin payments business.

  • Bitbank acquisition completed, crypto arm grows SBI finished buying crypto exchange Bitbank for 46.7 billion yen, making it a wholly owned subsidiary while keeping its CEO. This adds a large exchange to SBI's crypto business, increasing scale and earnings, though crypto prices remain volatile.

    Major completed acquisition that expands SBI's crypto exchange footprint.

  • New partners bring customers to SBI finance SBI will become Minkabu's second-largest shareholder and buy Livedoor, and JR Kyushu will launch a banking app using SBI Shinsei Bank and SBI Securities. These deals feed new customers into SBI's financial services, supporting future revenue.

    New distribution partnerships that widen SBI's customer reach.

▲4

SBI expands crypto and stablecoin reach with Bitbank buy and Korea payments push

  • Stablecoin reserves now earn bond income SBI started investing part of the yen stablecoin JPYSC's reserves in short-term Japanese government bonds, allowed under new rules. This lets the stablecoin business earn a return on reserves, making it more profitable and useful, which supports the share price.

    New regulation-driven revenue source for SBI's stablecoin business.

  • Japan-Korea stablecoin payments move toward real use SBI tested direct yen-won stablecoin exchange with Kyobo Life, then signed with two Korean firms to trial cross-border payments at 1.2 million Korean merchants. If commercialized, this opens a new payments business for SBI, lifting growth prospects.

    Shows SBI building a real cross-border stablecoin payments business.

  • Bitbank acquisition completed, crypto arm grows SBI finished buying crypto exchange Bitbank for 46.7 billion yen, making it a wholly owned subsidiary while keeping its CEO. This adds a large exchange to SBI's crypto business, increasing scale and earnings, though crypto prices remain volatile.

    Major completed acquisition that expands SBI's crypto exchange footprint.

  • New partners bring customers to SBI finance SBI will become Minkabu's second-largest shareholder and buy Livedoor, and JR Kyushu will launch a banking app using SBI Shinsei Bank and SBI Securities. These deals feed new customers into SBI's financial services, supporting future revenue.

    New distribution partnerships that widen SBI's customer reach.

▲4

SBI deepens stablecoin and tokenization push with new partners and a $270M Indonesia bet

  • Japan approves first foreign dollar stablecoin, offered via SBI Japan's regulator cleared Ripple's RLUSD, the first foreign-issued dollar stablecoin allowed in Japan, and SBI will offer it to institutions and individuals. This widens SBI's stablecoin product line and fee income, reinforcing its lead in regulated digital money.

    A new regulatory approval directly expands SBI's stablecoin business, a core growth driver.

  • SBI named founding validator on Circle's Arc blockchain SBI Group is among the founding validators securing Circle's Arc network, launching publicly in September alongside Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock. Being an early gatekeeper of a major payments chain gives SBI influence and new business in tokenized finance.

    It shows SBI gaining a strategic role in a major new financial blockchain, supporting its digital asset growth story.

  • SBI invests 43 billion yen for 20% of Indonesia's Ajaib SBI is paying about $270 million for a fifth of Ajaib, one of Indonesia's largest online investment platforms, making it an equity-method affiliate. The deal extends SBI's Southeast Asia digital-asset network and gives it a channel to push its yen stablecoin JPYSC.

    This is the period's largest capital commitment and a concrete step in SBI's stated Asia digital-economy strategy.

  • SBI's joint finance blockchain Strium sets launch timeline StarTail's CEO said the Strium testnet, built jointly with SBI, aims to launch this year with mainnet in fiscal 2026, supporting tokenized stocks, bonds and yen stablecoin payments. A concrete schedule turns a February announcement into a nearer-term product.

    It gives investors a timeline for a key SBI blockchain project, moving it from plan toward delivery.

July 2026
▲3

SBI expands crypto and digital assets, but payoffs remain distant

  • Crypto and digital-asset expansion SBI invested ¥12bn in US exchange EDX Markets, passed 2 million SBI VC Trade accounts, and acquired Singapore's Coinhako, widening its crypto footprint.

    This is the main new growth push behind the stock.

  • Tokenization and on-chain trading initiatives SBI co-led an Ethereum security-token test, partnered with Solana Foundation and Ondo Finance to tokenize Japanese stocks, and announced a 24/7 on-chain exchange with stablecoin support.

    These new projects show SBI's push into blockchain-based markets.

  • AI-driven trade execution pilot SBI piloted AI-driven trade execution, a new technology effort that could improve trading efficiency if it works.

    This is a new operational initiative that may support future growth.

  • Early-stage risks and FOLIO IPO plan SBI applied to list 69%-owned FOLIO Holdings, but tokenization, on-chain trading, and AI execution are experimental; the IPO and EDX investment depend on market conditions and may not add near-term earnings.

    This is the real counterweight: new plans are unproven and not yet profitable.

▲5

SBI accelerates on-chain finance push and plans to list FOLIO

  • SBI to build 24/7 on-chain exchange SBI plans a next-generation exchange with 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and stablecoin support. This positions SBI at the forefront of digital finance, potentially opening new revenue streams and supporting the share price.

    This is a new strategic initiative that could drive future growth.

  • Partnership with Solana Foundation SBI partnered with the Solana Foundation and renamed its unit SBI Solana Global to push Japan's capital markets onto public blockchains. This expands SBI's blockchain capabilities and could attract new business.

    New partnership signals deeper blockchain commitment.

  • Ondo partnership to tokenize Japanese stocks SBI teamed with Ondo Finance to tokenize Japanese stocks for overseas investors and distribute Ondo's products in Japan. This broadens SBI's customer base and revenue opportunities in the growing tokenization market.

    New collaboration expands addressable market.

  • Coinhako acquisition completed SBI acquired a majority stake in Singapore's Coinhako, making it a consolidated subsidiary. This expands SBI's digital asset business in Asia and adds over 480,000 users, strengthening its regional footprint.

    New acquisition expands crypto business and user base.

  • FOLIO Holdings IPO application SBI applied to list its 69%-owned subsidiary FOLIO Holdings on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The IPO could unlock value and strengthen group synergies, potentially boosting SBI's share price.

    New IPO plan may unlock value for SBI shareholders.

▲4

SBI expands crypto and digital asset push with new investments and tests

  • SBI invests ¥12bn in US crypto exchange EDX Markets SBI put about 12 billion yen into EDX Markets, a US crypto exchange for big institutions. This expands SBI's digital asset business and could boost future profits, supporting the share price.

    This is a major new investment that directly expands SBI's crypto ecosystem.

  • SBI VC Trade hits 2 million crypto accounts SBI's crypto exchange now has over 2 million registered accounts, about 14% of Japan's total. With the Bitbank deal, the group could reach nearly 3 million accounts, making it a top player and strengthening its competitive position.

    This shows SBI's growing scale and market share in crypto, a key growth area.

  • SBI co-leads cross-border security token trading test on Ethereum SBI Securities and partners tested cross-border trading of security tokens using the USDC stablecoin on Ethereum. This shows SBI is at the forefront of using blockchain for traditional finance, which could open new business opportunities.

    This innovation positions SBI as a leader in digital asset infrastructure, a potential long-term growth driver.

  • SBI's DeFimans to test next-gen trade execution with AI SBI Group's DeFimans and partners will test a new trade execution system that combines traditional and on-chain markets, using AI. This could make SBI a key player in the growing market for tokenized assets, supporting future revenue.

    This is a new initiative that could position SBI for growth in digital asset trading infrastructure.