The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB EIC, estimates that flooding between September 16 and October 7, 2026, affected more than 1.48 million Thai households, or roughly 6% of all households, with more than 1.1 million households still affected at present. The hardest-hit areas are Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, such as Samut Prakan and Pathum Thani, as well as provinces that serve as key agricultural and industrial production bases in the central and eastern regions, including Nakhon Nayok, Chonburi, Chachoengsao, Prachinburi and Ayutthaya. On the labor front, more than 1.69 million workers are expected to be affected, particularly in Samut Prakan and Bangkok, where 445,000 and 420,000 workers respectively have been hit, or about 2% of the country's total workforce. The most vulnerable groups are service-sector workers and informal workers who earn daily wages. As for the economic impact, SCB EIC expects the floods to reduce Thailand's economy by 0.05% to 0.1% this year in its base case, but if the situation is more severe than expected because of a new round of rain and stronger-than-anticipated northern runoff, the impact could rise to 0.1% to 0.2%, and could increase to 0.15% to 0.25% if flooding again occurs in urban areas inside Bangkok's flood barriers. That is still less than the great flood of 2001, which hit Thailand's economy by as much as 3.5% to 4%. The risk from this round of flooding lies in the added strain on households and small and medium-sized enterprises with limited liquidity.
SCB X Public Company LimitedSCB EIC estimates floods will shave 0.05%-0.1% off Thailand's economy, straining households and SMEs with limited liquidity, which raises credit risk for Siam Commercial Bank.
