The Economic Intelligence Center of SCB X Public Company Limited, or SCB EIC, reported that the housing market in 2026-2027 is likely to remain flat or expand only slightly, and will continue to recover slowly over the medium term. The main pressures come from still-fragile domestic purchasing power, expenses outpacing income, household debt problems, and tight lending by financial institutions. At the same time, purchasing power among high-end buyers, both Thai and foreign, is also likely to see purchase and investment decisions delayed by economic uncertainty. Nationwide ownership transfers in 2026 are expected to return to slight growth from a low base caused by the earthquake in 2025, a rush to transfer before government measures expired in June 2026, and operators' stock-clearing promotions, before the market returns to flat conditions again in 2027. The second-hand housing market remains highly popular, with ownership transfers tending to grow better than new homes, thanks to more accessible prices and a greater supply of second-hand homes and non-performing assets released into the market, giving buyers options priced at no more than 7 million baht, which meets the criteria for the transfer fee and mortgage fee reduction measures. The accumulated unsold stock in Bangkok and its vicinity has begun to decline in the short term in the condominium and townhouse segments, but over the medium term the loan rejection rate for the segment priced at no more than 5 million baht still bears watching. Meanwhile, the detached house segment remains a concern, with demand below supply and intense competition. SCB EIC therefore recommends that property operators adjust their strategies on five fronts: speed up clearing remaining stock to maintain cash flow; focus on delivering value and reducing reliance on price wars; tap the second-hand home market by shifting the view from competitor to market participant; adjust strategies for foreign markets from a broad approach to narrower targeting of specific groups; and upgrade to become a full-service residential living provider.
SCB X Public Company LimitedSCB EIC, SCB X's research unit, forecasts a slow property market recovery; this is a sector outlook report, not a company-specific development for SCB X.
