Tisco expects BTS to remain loss-making through 2028/29 with no dividends, maintains Hold with 3.00 baht target

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Analysts at Tisco Securities expect BTS to remain in net loss through the 2028/29 fiscal year, with no dividend payments during that period. They estimate a net loss of 2.46 billion baht for the 2026/27 fiscal year, in line with a first-quarter 2026/27 net loss of 728 million baht before extraordinary items. The main pressures come from adjusted net debt of 133 billion baht, financial costs of 1.94 billion baht, and a 31% rise in SG&A expenses to 1.94 billion baht in the first quarter of 2026/27. The estimates do not yet include the effects of asset sales or SG&A reduction measures, because the company has not disclosed clear details or a timeline. Tisco therefore maintains its Hold recommendation and its fair value of 3.00 baht, seeing profitability gradually improving on the common ticketing system targeted to launch in January 2027, and on the shift from BTSGIF profit sharing, which stood at 276 million baht in 2025/26, to a 13-year O&M contract after the BTSGIF concession ends in 2029. O&M revenue is expected to rise from 6.41 billion baht in 2030/31 to 8.94 billion baht in 2041/42. Meanwhile, the Pink and Yellow lines are likely to approach breakeven of about 150,000 trips per day sooner, with Pink line passengers expected to rise 20-30%. Key risks include delays in cost cuts or asset sales, delays in launching new projects, lower-than-expected passenger growth, and higher debt from financing the UTA project and Thai homes.

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