Summary · why it matters
Krungsri Securities said the Social Security Board approved a gradual increase in the wage ceiling for insured persons under Section 33, from 15,000 baht to 17,500 baht in 2026, 20,000 baht in 2029, and 23,000 baht in 2032. The research team estimates that raising the wage ceiling from 15,000 baht to 17,500 baht during 2026-28 will increase the contribution base by 16.7% and generate additional revenue for the fund of about 3,825 baht per insured person per year. Considering only the four-case fund, which directly supports health benefits, it will add revenue of approximately 1,350 baht per insured person per year. Based on a sensitivity analysis assuming a roughly 10% increase in social security medical treatment fees for capitation, IPD treatment, and chronic disease risk burden, similar to the most recent adjustment on May 1, 2023, it is estimated to add a burden to the fund of about 301 baht per insured person per year, or 22% of the incremental revenue of the four-case fund. This reflects that the fund's increased revenue exceeds the higher treatment burden and increases the likelihood of future adjustments to medical treatment rates, which would be an upside for BCH and CHG. On October 19, 2026, the ad hoc subcommittee to review the criteria and rates for medical service payments to contracted hospitals in the social security system will meet to finalize the proposal to adjust social security medical treatment fees after three meetings. It will then propose to the Medical Board and the Social Security Board. The research team assesses the impact on the 2027 earnings forecasts of BCH and CHG under two scenarios. In the first scenario, only the capitation rate is raised by 10%, with an assumed incremental margin of 80%, which would increase 2027 earnings of BCH and CHG by about 11% and 9%, respectively, with additional value from the target price of BCH of about 0.60-0.70 baht and CHG of about 0.10-0.15 baht. In the second scenario, all three items are raised by 10%, with an assumed incremental margin of 70%, which would increase earnings of BCH and CHG by about 13% and 11%, respectively, with additional value from the target price of BCH of about 0.80-1.00 baht and CHG of about 0.15-0.20 baht. The research team maintains a bullish view on the hospital sector, with top picks BDMS (Buy, target price 25 baht) and PR9 (Buy, target price 24 baht), while BCH (Buy, target price 12 baht) stands out in the social security hospital group due to earnings having passed the trough and a high chance of benefiting from the increase in social security medical treatment rates.
Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited
Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited
Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited