The research team at Asia Plus Securities issued an analysis of hospital sector stocks, assigning an "overweight" investment rating after finding an acceleration in influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks in the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026. Influenza patients between September 13 and 19 rose to 48,100 from 21,753 the previous week, while COVID-19 cases rose to 34,798 from 15,897. More than 50 to 60 percent of the new patients are in Bangkok, spanning both children and working-age adults. The research team takes a positive view of the hospital sector, especially BCH and BDMS, which derive roughly 87 percent and 69 percent of revenue respectively from Thai patients. BCH's hospital revenue in August rose 10 percent year on year, accelerating from 7 percent growth in July, while BDMS came in at 9 to 10 percent growth, accelerating from 8 percent, and September is expected to continue growing. The team therefore assesses that third-quarter 2026 operating results have a chance of being the strongest quarter of the year. The research team picked BDMS and BCH as top picks. For BDMS it maintained a "buy" recommendation with a 2027 fair value of 25.00 baht, while BCH has a fair value of 12.00 baht with a "trading buy" recommendation, after its share price rose and already reflected some of the positive factors. However, BCH still has upside from an adjustment to social security treatment fees that is expected to become clear by the end of October. If the per-head capitation rate rises 10 percent, it is expected to lift social security revenue by 3 percent and 2027 profit by 4 percent, which is not yet included in the estimates.
Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company LimitedFlu and COVID outbreaks accelerating in Thailand are expected to boost patient volumes and hospital revenue for BCH, which derives ~87% of revenue from Thai patients.
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company LimitedAccelerating influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand are expected to drive patient volumes and revenue growth for BDMS, which derives ~69% of revenue from Thai patients.
