Maybank says healthcare sector profits in 2026 to take only 0.6–1% flood hit, picks BH and CHG as top stocks

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Summary · why it matters

Maybank Securities (Thailand) has maintained its positive view on Thailand's healthcare sector, estimating that flooding will cut 2026 core profits by only 0.6–1.0%, after checks with hospitals showed that none had floodwater enter their buildings or suffer property damage. It expects the healthcare sector's core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 8% year on year, driven by the influenza outbreak, with patient numbers up 45% year on year, and by the low base of revenue from Cambodian patients a year earlier. BDMS and BCH are expected to post the strongest core profit growth at 11% and 10% respectively, followed by CHG at 7%, while BH is seen growing 3% and PR9 up 1%. On the flood impact, CHG has the highest share of beds in affected areas at 88%, followed by BCH at 46% and BDMS at 35%, while BH and PR9 have no beds in those areas. As a result, Maybank estimates 2026 core profit will fall by just 1.0% for CHG, 0.9% for BCH and 0.6–0.7% for the others. Maybank has already factored into its forecasts the upside from a 10% increase in the Social Security Office's per-head capitation rate from January 2027, which is expected to be concluded by October 24, lifting its 2027 core profit forecasts by 12% for BCH and 9% for CHG. It has raised its target price for BCH to 12.30 baht from 11.00 baht and for CHG to 2.00 baht from 1.90 baht, while keeping BH and CHG as its top picks.

Impact on assets 5

Health Care▲
Bumrungrad Hospital PCL
BH
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

BH is kept as a Maybank top pick and has no beds in flood-affected areas, with 2026 core profit hit limited to 0.6–0.7%.

Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited
CHG
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Chularat is expected to grow Q3 2026 core profit 7% year on year, though it has the highest share of beds in affected areas at 88% and a 1.0% 2026 profit hit.

Aging Population▲