Asia Plus Securities maintains "Overweight" on hospital stocks as Russian pneumonic plague case has yet to affect fundamentals

Thunhoon··THRU·Read original
2▲1 ▼0Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

The research department of Asia Plus Securities issued an analysis following the death of a 28-year-old woman in Russia's Irkutsk region from severe pneumonia, suspected of possibly being linked to pneumonic plague. At least 197 people had contact with her, but no symptomatic cases have been found, and there is still no test result confirming infection or evidence of human-to-human transmission. The research team holds a neutral view on the matter and assesses the risk of the pathogen entering Thailand as low, so it is not expected to affect patient volumes or the earnings of private hospital operators in the short term. If the situation escalates and an outbreak is found in Thailand, causing a rise in infectious and respiratory disease patients, it could be positive for hospitals with a high base of Thai patients such as BCH, which derives about 87% of its hospital revenue from Thai patients. But if the situation spreads to the point of disrupting international travel, it could pose a risk to BH and BDMS, which derive about 66% and 29% of revenue respectively from foreign patients. BDMS could be slightly more affected in terms of confidence, given its base of Russian patients in tourist areas such as Phuket and Pattaya. However, revenue from Russian patients accounts for only 0.1-0.2% of hospital revenue, so the impact on fundamentals is expected to be limited, and it is still too early to factor this into earnings forecasts. The research team maintains an "Overweight" rating on the hospital sector, viewing the earnings outlook as still strong, especially in the third quarter of 2026, which is expected to be the peak of the year. It selects BDMS and PR9 as Top Picks with "Buy" recommendations, assigning a 2027 fair value of 25.00 baht for BDMS and a target price of 23.00 baht for PR9.

Impact on assets 4

Health Care▲
Bumrungrad Hospital PCL
BH
± Mixedrelevance

BH flagged as exposed to foreign patients (about 66% of revenue) only if the situation disrupts international travel, which has not occurred.

Aging Population▲