Kasikorn Research says rubber prices surge 9%, boosting STA and TEGH while pressuring livestock names TU and ITC

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Summary · why it matters

Kasikorn Securities reported that natural rubber prices have improved, with the SICOM TSR20 price rising 9% over two weeks to 2.58 dollars per kilogram, driven by tight supply from unfavourable weather, rain disrupting tapping in Thailand, declining rubber stocks in Qingdao, and supply risks from the El Nino phenomenon as the fourth quarter of 2026 approaches. The quarter-to-date average price is up 48% year on year and 12% quarter on quarter, a positive factor for STA and TEGH. Meanwhile, the average tuna price in September stood at 2,275 dollars per tonne, up 8.3% month on month, due to low catch volumes after the end of the seasonal fishing restriction period, low stock levels, and higher fuel and logistics costs. This is expected to weigh on the profitability of TU and ITC, though tuna prices are expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Thai pig prices fell 2.9% to 68.38 baht per kilogram, while broiler prices were flat at 44 baht per kilogram, as heavy rain and flooding hit consumer spending. Pig prices in Vietnam fell 3.7% to 55,833 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, and pig prices in China fell 3.8% to 10.3 yuan per kilogram, a negative for CPF and TFG. Domestic animal feed costs rose, with Thai feed corn prices up 0.5% to 9.93 baht per kilogram and domestic soybean meal prices up 4.1% to 19.1 baht per kilogram, while CBOT soybean and soybean meal prices fell 1.9% to 12.8 dollars per bushel and 2.8% to 345 dollars per tonne respectively, following high US production estimates.

Impact on assets 9

Consumer Staples▼
Thai Union Group PCL
TU
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Elevated tuna prices driven by low catch volumes and higher costs are expected to weigh on TU's profitability.

Synthetic Biology (non-pharma)▲
Energy Transition & Power Demand▼
Others▲