CGSI recommends overweighting Thai retail stocks, picks BJC and CPALL as top picks

HoonVision··THVN·Read original
2▲4 ▼0Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

The research team at CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, continues to recommend overweighting the Thai retail sector, selecting BJC and CPALL as top picks, based on tracking of same-store sales growth, or SSSG, which still supports accumulating BJC and DOHOME shares because sales are signalling a continued recovery. It recommends gradually accumulating CPALL shares before 7-Eleven's SSSG clearly recovers from late November, a period when consumers will likely have used up almost all of their Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme entitlements. As for MOSHI, it is seen as likely to be affected only temporarily by the flooding in late September, and the team recommends using the share price pullback to accumulate the stock. The research team estimates BigC will post SSSG of +2.5% in September 2026, bringing SSSG to +0.2% in the third quarter of 2026. MMVN is expected to post September SSSG of +7.0% in Vietnamese dong terms and +12.2% in baht terms, resulting in third-quarter 2026 SSSG of +9.7% and +13.0% respectively. Meanwhile, 7-Eleven stores are expected to post September SSSG of +1.5%, and although the late-September flooding forced more than 100 branches to close, the overall impact on the network of more than 16,000 branches is limited. MRDIYT is expected to see SSSG slow from +1.0% in July to +0.5% in August and +0.3% in September, bringing SSSG to +0.6% in the third quarter of 2026. MOSHI is estimated to post SSSG of +0.1% in September, down from the +3-4% estimated in the first half of the month, bringing SSSG to +3.9% in the third quarter of 2026. September SSSG for the wholesale business is expected at -17.0%, while the retail business should still post high SSSG of about +2.5%, compared with +2.2% in August. For DOHOME, SSSG is expected at +4.2% in September, led by growth in back-office sales of +9.0%, bringing SSSG to +5.5% in the third quarter of 2026. GLOBAL is expected to post SSSG of -5.0% in September and -5.2% in the third quarter of 2026. For HMPRO, areas affected by flooding account for roughly 50-60% of HomePro store sales, causing SSSG at HomePro and MegaHome stores to fall to -2% and +1% in September, resulting in SSSG of -3.0% and -0.4% in the third quarter of 2026 respectively. The team views the weaker sales as stemming from customers postponing purchases, and believes this will help support a recovery in HMPRO sales in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Impact on assets 7

Consumer Discretionary▲
Consumer Staples▲
Berli Jucker PCL
BJC
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

CGSI recommends overweighting Thai retail and picks BJC as a top pick, citing SSSG recovery supporting accumulation.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲

Off-coverage companies 2

MegaHomei
Private▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

CGSI expects MegaHome's SSSG to slow from +1.0% in July to +0.5% in August and +0.3% in September, with Q3 SSSG of just +0.6%.

MM Vietnami
Private▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

MMVN is expected to post strong September SSSG of +7.0% in dong terms and +12.2% in baht terms, driving Q3 SSSG of +9.7% and +13.0%.