Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited estimates that Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, will have hospital revenue of approximately 6.75 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 8.3% from the previous quarter and 4.0% from the same period last year, exceeding management's guidance of about 3% year-on-year revenue growth. International patient revenue is expected at 4.579 billion baht, up 10.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.6% year-on-year, driven by an accelerating number of travelers from the Middle East to Thailand, with about 70,000 such tourists in September 2026, growing 18.8% year-on-year. Thai patient revenue is expected at 2.17 billion baht, up 8.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year. Core profit for the third quarter of 2026 is expected at 2.088 billion baht, up 10.5% quarter-on-quarter and 2.4% year-on-year, on total revenue of approximately 6.77 billion baht. The gross margin is expected to rise to 53.2% from 53.0% in the third quarter of 2025, and the EBITDA margin is expected at 41.4%, up from 40.9% in the same period last year. Phillip views the third quarter of 2026 as the best quarter of the year, with the second quarter of 2026 likely marking the bottom of performance. Core profit for the nine months of 2026 is expected at approximately 5.759 billion baht, up 2.3% year-on-year, representing 72.7% of the full-year profit forecast. It maintains a buy recommendation on BH with a year-end 2026 target price of 200 baht per share. The business expansion plan continues with the opening of a hospital in Phuket in two phases. The first phase, spanning years one to five, or approximately the second half of 2027 to 2032, will gradually open 120 beds, and the second phase, spanning years six to ten, or approximately 2032 to 2037, will add another 92 beds, for a total of 212 beds, following a hub-and-spoke model. Factors to monitor include the slow recovery in domestic purchasing power and the conflict situation in the Middle East, which may affect the number of international patients and BH's revenue trend going forward.
Bumrungrad Hospital PCLPhillip maintains a buy rating on BH with a 200 baht year-end 2026 target price and forecasts rising gross and EBITDA margins.
