CGS International (Thailand) or CGSI maintains a "Buy" recommendation on Bumrungrad Hospital (BH) with a target price of 212 baht, after raising its net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 4% and for 2028 by 2%. It expects net profit for Q3/2026 to be 2,083 million baht, up 2% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, bringing 9-month 2026 profit to 5,763 million baht, or 77% of the full-year estimate. The research house sees revenue from international patients still growing 7.1% in Q2/2026, led by patients from Myanmar, the Middle East, and the US. Although the number of international patients declined 6%, revenue from complex treatments is expected to rise 14% for international patients and 5% for Thai patients. Meanwhile, GPM in Q3/2026 is expected to increase to 52.5% from 52.0% in the previous quarter, and the company can control SG&A expenses to 15.8% of revenue. CGSI also raised its dividend payout assumption to 100% for 2026-2028, implying a dividend yield of about 5%. It expects BH to have EBITDA of around 10-11 billion baht per year, sufficient to support annual dividend payments of about 7.7-8.1 billion baht. Risks to monitor include potential escalation of Middle East tensions and increased competition in the international patient market. Positive factors include pent-up demand from Middle Eastern patients that may be stronger than expected and the reopening of the Thai-Cambodian border checkpoint.
Bumrungrad Hospital PCLCGSI maintains Buy with raised profit forecasts and target price of 212 baht.
