Asia Plus picks BH as top private hospital play as Middle Eastern patients recover

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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities said the number of Middle Eastern tourists in September rose 18.8% year on year, though it fell 43.1% from the previous month on seasonal factors. That brought the third quarter of 2026 up 12.9% year on year and 142.4% quarter on quarter, reflecting a gradual return of travel to normal and a positive signal for the Middle Eastern patient trend at private hospital groups. The research team views this as a positive factor for third-quarter 2026 earnings after Middle Eastern patients began to recover from the impact of the Iran war, with most returning patients being complex and critical cases that carry high revenue per case and high margins, supporting the prospect that profits will recover faster than revenue. This is consistent with the number of Middle Eastern tourists in the third quarter of 2026, with the UAE up 29.8% year on year and Saudi Arabia up 21% year on year, while Qatar and Oman rose 1% and 4% year on year respectively. The research team maintained an overweight stance on the hospital group and buy ratings on BH, PR9 and BDMS, choosing BH as the top pick because it has the highest share of revenue from Middle Eastern patients in the group at about 23%, followed by PR9 at about 10% and BDMS at about 4%. It kept 2027 target prices at 225.00 baht, 23.00 baht and 25.00 baht respectively.

Impact on assets 3

Health Care▲
Bumrungrad Hospital PCL
BH
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Picked as top private hospital play with highest Middle Eastern patient revenue share (~23%), benefiting from recovering complex/critical case volumes and high margins.

Aging Population▲