Broker says Thailand's first SAF plant boosts BCP profit, target 57 baht

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Bualuang Securities said that BCP's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant, the first in Thailand, began operating in May 2026 with a production capacity of 7,000 barrels per day, or 1 million liters per day, and can switch production between SAF and renewable diesel. The main feedstock is used cooking oil, about 40% of which comes from domestic sources and 60% is imported, while the company has long-term feedstock supply contracts with major food and retail operators in Thailand. SAF demand is being driven by increasingly stringent fuel blending mandates worldwide, with the EU starting at 2% in 2025 and rising to 6% in 2030, while Thailand begins with a 1% target in 2026 before increasing to 1-2% in 2027-29 and 3-5% in 2030-32. Global SAF demand is expected to rise from 3.6 billion liters in 2026 to 4.5 billion liters in 2027, although rising supply may pressure margins somewhat going forward. The business's highlight is its profitability, with the SAF spread rising from about 1,000 US dollars per ton in 2025 to roughly 1,300 US dollars per ton in 2026 year-to-date, or about 3 times the spread of conventional jet fuel. The plant generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, and SAF EBITDA is expected at 4 billion baht in 2026 and 6 billion baht in 2027. Even in a worst case where the margin falls to 800 US dollars per ton, it would still be about 2 times the spread of conventional jet fuel and generate 2027 EBITDA of about 4 billion baht. There is also upside from a 43% capacity expansion to 10,000 barrels per day, which is not yet fully reflected in long-term estimates and would be additional upside if the company proceeds with the project. Bualuang Securities maintained its Hold recommendation with a target price of 57 baht and an equal-weight stance on the energy sector. Key issues to watch are the direction of SAF margins as new supply gradually enters the market and clarity on further capacity expansion.

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Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited
BCP
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Bualuang says BCP's first-in-Thailand SAF plant boosts profit, with SAF EBITDA forecast at 4bn baht in 2026 and 6bn in 2027, and maintains Hold with 57 baht target.

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