Brokerage says Social Security set to raise per-head payments, boosting hospital stock profits, with CHG the standout

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Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) said the Social Security Office is reviewing the medical service fees it pays to contracted hospitals, covering per-head capitation, treatment of chronic diseases, and complex cases with RW>2. The review is expected to be completed by 24 October 2026. The per-head capitation rate currently stands at 1,808 baht per person per year, while the size of the increase and the date it takes effect have not yet been officially concluded. The brokerage views this as a positive sentiment and an upside to profit forecasts for hospital stocks with a high share of Social Security revenue, namely RJH at about 49% of revenue, BCH at 36%, CHG at 28%, CMR at 27%, and BDMS at 3%. If the per-head capitation rate rises 1%, it is expected to lift profits by about 3.1% for RJH, 2.6% for BCH, 1.91% for CHG, 0.36% for CMR, and 0.16% for BDMS, and if it rises 5%, it would lift profits by about 15.3%, 13.0%, 9.55%, 1.81%, and 0.81% respectively. The brokerage has not yet included this upside in its forecasts until the new rate and effective date are clear, so it maintains an overweight stance on the sector, picks CHG as its top stock, and recommends buying with a fundamental value of 2.15 baht.

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