Summary · why it matters
China has suspended exports of refined fuel to markets outside Hong Kong and Macau starting in October, until the government issues a change in orders, in order to prioritise domestic energy security. This has tightened supply of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in Asia and helped keep refining margins for refineries outside China at high levels. Data from Vortexa, reported by Reuters on 6 October 2026, showed that exports of crude oil, condensate and oil products from the Persian Gulf region, excluding Iran, recovered to about 81% of pre-conflict levels in September, with crude and condensate exports recovering to about 91% of previous levels, while refined product exports recovered to only about 60% of pre-conflict levels. In Saudi Arabia, the energy minister said on 6 October 2026 that oil volumes pumped through the East-West Pipeline rose to 5.8 million barrels and that about 4 million barrels per day of crude could be transported through the route, after the system was restored following damage from a drone attack on 11 September. In the United Arab Emirates, fuel oil volumes entering Fujairah rose to 2.6 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2026 from 845,000 tonnes in the second quarter, and the UAE exported more than 1.4 million tonnes of fuel oil in September, the highest level in more than a year. For India, which has 23 refineries with total refining capacity of about 5.6 million barrels per day, exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel totalled about 47 million tonnes in 2025, compared with about 25.4 million tonnes for China. But in the first nine months of 2026, India's export volumes fell about 23% from the same period a year earlier, due to crude feedstock constraints and export tax measures, before crude imports from the Middle East recovered in September to more than 11.3 million tonnes, the highest since February. Reuters reported that the refining margin for 10 ppm low-sulphur diesel rose above 87 dollars per barrel, hitting a record high, compared with about 22 dollars per barrel before the conflict, and freight rates on the Middle East-to-Asia route surged sharply, from about 30,000 dollars per day to as high as about 1.2 million dollars per day at some points. For Thai refinery operators, the high spread between refined product prices and crude oil prices is a positive factor. Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, has a diversified product structure, especially in middle distillates, while Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, relies mainly on refining and is therefore quite sensitive to gross refining margins. Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, in addition to its refinery business, also has downstream businesses and a sustainable aviation fuel business, or SAF, which helps diversify its revenue sources. If China continues to restrict exports, while refined product exports from the Middle East have not fully recovered and India cannot yet add enough supply to compensate, the tightness in diesel and jet fuel is likely to persist, which would support refining margins and could benefit the refinery businesses of TOP, SPRC and BCP in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd