⛏Coffee Futures
COFFEE
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Brazil harvest behind schedule, rain threat, low inventories, and El Niño risk tighten supply.
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Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Thursday, with September arabica coffee closing up 38.10 cents, or 12.30%, and September ICE robusta coffee up $302, or 8.07%. The volatile moves come after Intercontinental Exchange raised margin requirements earlier this week, drying up liquidity and prompting many commodity funds to close positions, leading to excessive one-way price swings. Supporting prices, Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest is 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year's 60% and the five-year average of 55%, while forecast rain in mid-July could be detrimental to crops. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 346,419 bags on Thursday, and concerns persist that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt next year's crop, with the US NOAA estimating a 67% probability of a record-strong Super El Niño.
Brazil harvest behind schedule, rain threat, low inventories, and El Niño risk tighten supply.