Summary · why it matters
Dongyue Silicon Materials shot straight up to the daily limit after the market opened on October 9, with the share price at 17.15 yuan and total market value of about 20.6 billion yuan. The previous evening, the company disclosed its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2026, expecting attributable net profit of 547 million to 567 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19,050% to 19,750%. Non-recurring net profit is expected to be 589 million to 609 million yuan, compared with 11.82 million yuan in the same period last year. The company attributed the earnings growth to higher prices for its main products driven by an improved industry supply-demand balance, as well as a year-on-year decline in procurement prices for industrial silicon raw materials, which lowered overall unit production costs and lifted comprehensive gross margin. The company also cautioned that the third quarter of 2025 was affected by the July 20 fire accident, resulting in a loss of 39.34 million yuan for that period, which left attributable net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 at only 2.86 million yuan, making the current profit figures not comparable with the same period last year. Excluding the impact of the fire, attributable net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 would have been about 42.19 million yuan, corresponding to a forecast profit increase of about 1,197% to 1,244% for 2026. Based on the forecast and first-half financial data, the company's third-quarter attributable net profit is estimated at 118 million to 138 million yuan, down about 41% to 49% quarter on quarter, meaning that the marginal pace of earnings growth has not expanded in tandem even as industry prices continue to rise. Dongyue Silicon Materials is one of China's largest producers in the silicone industry, with annual production capacity of 600,000 tonnes of silicone monomer and more than 600 downstream product grades as of the end of the reporting period. Since the domestic silicone DMC market bottomed out and rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2025, the supply-demand balance has continued to improve. As of October 9, the benchmark price was 14,400 yuan per tonne, up about 30% year on year. Leading suppliers reached a consensus on coordinated production cuts and price stabilization from the end of 2025, while overseas, Dow shut down its basic siloxane plant in Barry, United Kingdom, involving DMC capacity of 145,000 tonnes per year, accounting for about 30.5% of total European silicone capacity.